Presentation by Andy Jarvis for the CIAT KSW 2009

1. Climate change Knowledge Sharing Week May 2009

3. El clima esta cambiando, no me diga que no

5. Sources of Agricultural Greenhouse Gases excluding land use change Mt CO2-eq Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008

6. El pasado y el presente – El “hockey stick”

9. El arctico esta descongelando

12. Y que dicen los modelos?

13. What do the 21 models say? The world gets warmer

14. … .and wetter, but not everywhere

18. Incertidumbre

19. Incertidumbre

20. Colombia y el mundo en cambio climático Colombia Mundo +4.5ºC +14% +3.1ºC +8.1%

24. Ecocrop approach

26. Current Cassava Suitability Gmin: 150, Gmax: 365. KTmp : 0, Tmin:15, TOPmn:24, TOPmx: 32, Tmax: 45. Rmin: 300, ROPmn: 850, ROPmx: 1500, Rmax: 2000.

27. Gmin: 150, Gmax: 365. KTmp : 0, Tmin:15, TOPmn:24, TOPmx: 32, Tmax: 45. Rmin: 300, ROPmn: 850, ROPmx: 1500, Rmax: 2000. Future Cassava Suitability (2020)

28. Gmin: 150, Gmax: 365. KTmp : 0, Tmin:15, TOPmn:24, TOPmx: 32, Tmax: 45. Rmin: 300, ROPmn: 850, ROPmx: 1500, Rmax: 2000. Change in Cassava Suitability

29. TECHNOLOGY OPTION: +2-3 o C HEAT TOLERANCE Only India benefits from heat tolerance. This is a national strategy for technology development. CIAT’s strategy probably better placed in pests/diseases.

30. Changes in adaptability in Green Mite 2020

31. Change in adaptability of Whitefly 2020

32. Arachis pintoi Krap.& Greg. Gmin: 180, Gmax: 300 KTmp: 0, Tmin: 12, TOPmn: 22, TOPmx: 28, Tmax: 30 Rmax: 1600, ROPmn: 1800, ROPmx:2000, Rmax: 3000

33. Clitoria ternatea L. Gmin: 50, Gmax: 365 KTmp: -2, Tmin: 15, TOPmn: 19, TOPmx: 28, Tmax: 32 Rmax: 400, ROPmn: 1200, ROPmx:1800, Rmax: 4300

34. Leucaena leucocephala (La.) Gmin: 180, Gmax: 365 KTmp: 0, Tmin: 10, TOPmn: 20, TOPmx: 32, Tmax: 42 Rmax: 250, ROPmn: 600, ROPmx: 3000, Rmax: 5000

35. Brachearia x hybrid Gmin: 120, Gmax: 365 KTmp: 0, Tmin: 20, TOPmn: 24, TOPmx: 30, Tmax: 35 Rmax: 800, ROPmn: 1200, ROPmx:1800, Rmax: 3000

36. The geography of crop suitability

37. Change in global suitability

38. Number of crops that lose out

39. Number of crops that gain

40. Cassava and maize in Africa and India – not all bad news

41. Differential response in maize

42. COFFEE SUITABILITY COFFEE: 14.3% of GDP in Nicaragua, 2006.

43. COFFEE SUITABILITY

44. COFFEE ACIDITY SUITABILITY

45. COFFEE ACIDITY SUITABILITY

46. ADAPTATION STRATEGIES 1. Areas not anymore suitable for coffee (alternatives) 2. Areas only suitable with adapted management (varieties, irrigation, shade, etc) 3. New potential areas (expand where viable and possible)

47. IMPLICATIONS ON SUPPLY CHAIN 1. Shortage of commodity coffee and high value coffee 2. Possible increase in prices and income for supply chain actors 3. Change in sourcing areas and channels 4. Possible loss of product reputation (Denomination of Origin in Veracruz)

50. Adaptive management across the supply chain FARM MARKET Short-cycle high investment cash crops Perennial long-term high investment system