By Dr. Hoe Siu Loon, Senior Lecturer & Consultant, IT Strategy & Management, NUS-ISS Robust foresight can be utilised to enhance the quality of strategic decision-making in complex and uncertain operating environments. It is important to be able to think about the future and act on it. The session will focus on the essentials of scenario and strategic thinking to stay relevant in a digital world.

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#ISSlearn
THINKING ABOUT THE
DIGITAL FUTURE
LINKING SCENARIOS WITH STRATEGY
11 Aug 2017 / Dr Hoe Siu Loon
© 2017 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved

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About the Presenter
Profile
Senior Lecturer & Consultant
IT Strategy & Management Practice, NUS ISS
What I Teach
• NICF - Strategic Futures & Foresight
• NICF - Business Process Reengineering
• NICF - Communicating & Managing Change
• e-Government Leadership Centre – Digital Government
• Common Sense
2© 2017 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved

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Time
Machine
Journey back to the past

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The Year is 1995
Newsweek article by Clifford Stoll
• “Why the web won’t be Nirvana”
• Internet is baloney (nonsense)
“No online database will replace your
daily newspaper”
“No computer network will change the
way government works”
4© 2017 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved
Reference: http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-mh-actually-that-offbase-20150227-column.html
Clifford Stoll - An American
astronomer and computer expert

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A VUCA World
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Reference: https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you
Complex
Multiple key
decision factors
Uncertain
Lack of
predictability;
surprises
Ambiguous
Mixed
meanings
Volatile
Nature and rate
rate of change
… Or is it a
Turbulent-
Uncertain-
Novel-
Ambiguous
world?
How much do we know about the situation?
Howwellcanwepredicttheoutcomeofouractions?

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What are Scenarios?
• Presentations of plausible future
situations in a narrative form
• “Stories about tomorrow”
• Not predictions; Not about probability
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Reference: http://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/new-lenses-on-the-future.html
Mountains
A world where
government policy
significantly
influences society
and largely
shapes energy
and environmental
pathways
Oceans
A landscape shaped by market
forces and civil society; public
resistance and the slow adoption of
policies and technology limits the
development of nuclear power and
restricts the growth of natural gas

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What is Scenario Planning?
“The art of strategic conversation”
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“The link between future and strategy”
“Rehearsing the future”
Building an outside-in perspective to deal with different possibilities

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Why Scenario Planning?
1. Matches the way the brain
functions
• The narrative format using images and
stories makes them easily memorable
• What you can visualise, you can also believe
2. Encourages divergent thinking
• Forcing the mind to think about qualitatively
different directions
• Open format, with no ‘right’ or ‘wrong
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Reference: Scenario Planning: The Link Between Future and Strategy, Lindgren & Bandhold (2003)

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Why Scenario Planning?
3. Reduces complexity
• Complex business environments can be
reduced to a manageable amount of
uncertainty without over simplifications
4. Easy to communicate
• Provides a common language and world
view that simplifies decision making
9© 2017 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved
Reference: Scenario Planning: The Link Between Future and Strategy, Lindgren & Bandhold (2003)

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Examples of Scenarios
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UN - Global Water
Singapore – Society, Talent
UK - Infrastructure
Bank - Business

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How are Scenarios Created?
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Scenario
A
Scenario
B
Scenario
D
Scenario
C
x x
x x
Steps
1. Identify the Focal Issue
• “What is the problem we are trying to solve?
2. Identify Drivers
3. Identify Critical Uncertainties
4. Create Scenarios
5. Compose Stories

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PESTEL Analysis
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Competing in a world of sectors
without borders
Digitalization is causing a radical reordering of traditional
industry boundaries – “Digital natives”
Example: Rakuten Ichiba
• Japan’s largest online retail marketplace
• Provides loyalty points and e-money to real and virtual stores
• Offers credit cards, mortgages and securities brokerage
• Sells travel packages
• Operates in 29 countries
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Reference: Competing in a world of sectors without borders, McKinsey Quarterly (July 2017)

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Competing in a world of sectors
without borders
• Changing consumer
expectations and behavior
• End-to-end user experience
• Single-access
• Wide range of products and
services
• Without having to leave the
network of businesses
• What would the ecosystems
of tomorrow look like?
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Reference: Competing in a world of sectors without borders, McKinsey Quarterly (July 2017)

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Digital Future
Physical + Digital =
world
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Linking Scenarios with Strategy
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Scenario A Scenario B
Scenario D Scenario C
Strategy?
Strategy?Strategy?
Strategy?

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Question to Ponder
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What scenarios
are your
strategies based on?

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THANK YOU 
isshsl@nus.edu.sg
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