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Improving Forecast Accuracy

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A summary of tested principles I composed on improving forecast accuracy for a more reliable and efficient supply chain operation. These tips can be useful for Demand Managers and forecasters especially in a market involving wholesalers and distributors.

Publié dans : Business
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Improving Forecast Accuracy

  1. 1. Improving Forecast Accuracy ONUR SEZGIN DEMAND AND PROCESS MANAGER ABBOTT LABORATORIES - EPD TURKEY
  2. 2. BIGGEST CONTRIBUTORS TO ERROR FOCUS ON
  3. 3. Find out WHAT to improve
  4. 4. Repeat your analysis every month! Findoutwhat toimprove
  5. 5. Do you see a pattern?
  6. 6. DO NOT SETTLE EASILY ANALYZE MORE
  7. 7. Always keep an eye on TRENDS
  8. 8. Is the error coming from a particular forecaster?
  9. 9. Let them know over a coffee Photo Credit: juliuskoroll https://www.flickr.com/photos/67975868@N07/
  10. 10. Build a Forecast Waterfall! Photo Credit: philippe leroyer https://www.flickr.com/photos/philippeleroyer/3871752748/
  11. 11. WITH YOUR POSITIVE PERSISTENCE OVERCOME RESISTANCE Photo Credit: John Pedersen https://www.flickr.com/photos/slipperytiger/143789456
  12. 12. PEOPLE TEND TO MAKE EXCUSES But my in market sales forecast accuracy is good. My product is sold more to compensate for other product, it is not my fault. But we have to deliver the plan, so we have to input this forecast. I do not have time to compile a better forecast.
  13. 13. Communicate more frequently Photo Credit: aquopshilton https://www.flickr.com/photos/76804652@N02/7158670888
  14. 14. Create Accountability Photo Credit: Nguyen Hung Vu https://www.flickr.com/photos/vuhung/8095592977
  15. 15. FORECAST ACCURACY MEASURE IN MARKET Photo Credit: John Pedersen https://www.flickr.com/photos/slipperytiger/143789456
  16. 16. MAKE TIME FOR THEM RCA & CAP Photo Credit: MTSOfan https://www.flickr.com/photos/mtsofan/16341418531
  17. 17. CAP should be Almost Always Related to a Change in the Forecast Photo Credit: Arthur John Picton https://www.flickr.com/photos/arthurjohnpicton/4383221264/
  18. 18. BALANCE IM & TM IN MARKET AND TO MARKET Photo Credit: Christopher A. Dominic https://www.flickr.com/photos/kestereverts/14333646903/in/photostream/
  19. 19. Reconcile More Frequently with Customers Photo Credit: Chris Beckett https://www.flickr.com/photos/chrisjohnbeckett/16917511337/
  20. 20. have targets for in market inventory levels Photo Credit: Chris Beckett https://www.flickr.com/photos/chrisjohnbeckett/16917511337/
  21. 21. Sales and Marketing forecasts in market Channel Mngment forecasts to market Photo Credit: Alexander Rentsch https://www.flickr.com/photos/captain_die/8599206193/
  22. 22. DEVELOP ENABLING TOOLS AND KEEP IMPROVING Photo Credit: Alan https://www.flickr.com/photos/kaptainkobold/5359290323
  23. 23. Photo Credit: Lucas Lin https://www.flickr.com/photos/lucaslin/6546996873/ Do not try to do improvements on your own
  24. 24. What do forecasters do every month to update their forecast?
  25. 25. PREVIOUS SITUATION • 6 Product Managers, 6 Different Forecasting Files • No single data source: To MKT Sales from a PDF BPCS Report In MKT Sales from an SFE Report FOC realization from a CS Report Previous forecast from previous forecasting file PLAN and LBE data from a Finance File
  26. 26. PREVIOUS SITUATION • Unreliable In Market inventory • Complicated FOC Realization Tracking • No systematical archiving • Too Long Preparation and Setup needed before Demand Review • Previous Forecast overwritten
  27. 27. CURRENT SITUATION • Frequently Reconciled In Market inventory • Speeded up FOC process • Archiving standardized in the shared folder • Most of the necessary data for forecasting is consolidated by DM and circulated • All 8 Line ADS Elements are incooperated with Plan, LBE, Previous ADS and ADS Dimensions • Demand Manager File and PM File Communication is achieved
  28. 28. SOME KEY POINTS • Keep Lag 3 visible • Simulate KPI realization in the forecasting tool • Make Frozen Period visible and known • Use graphs to analyze trends and variances versus plan and previous forecast • Create easy comparison vs. benchmarks • Automated Summary Reports for fast reviews
  29. 29. FOLLOW UP FINE TUNE WITHIN THE MONTH Photo Credit: Christopher A. Dominic https://www.flickr.com/photos/kestereverts/14333646903/in/photostream/
  30. 30. Estimate Month End In MKT Sales Within the Month
  31. 31. Track Forecast Accuracy Within the Month Photo Credit: Matt MacGillivray https://www.flickr.com/photos/qmnonic/5549035548/
  32. 32. So... Results? Photo Credit: Zoe Guerrini https://www.flickr.com/photos/zoeorangejuice/5520846494/
  33. 33. Forecast Accuracy
  34. 34. SP&E
  35. 35. Photo Credit: Jesse Scott https://www.flickr.com/photos/75628938@N00/6940356708 Onur Sezgin ABBOTT LABORATORIES EPD TURKEY DEMAND AND PROCESS MANAGER Thank you

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