A summary of tested principles I composed on improving forecast accuracy for a more reliable and efficient supply chain operation. These tips can be useful for Demand Managers and forecasters especially in a market involving wholesalers and distributors.
12. PEOPLE TEND TO MAKE
EXCUSES
But my in market
sales forecast
accuracy is good.
My product is sold more to
compensate for other
product, it is not my fault.
But we have to deliver the
plan, so we have to input
this forecast.
I do not have time
to compile a better
forecast.
17. MAKE TIME FOR THEM
RCA & CAP
Photo Credit: MTSOfan
https://www.flickr.com/photos/mtsofan/16341418531
18. CAP should
be Almost Always
Related to a
Change in
the Forecast
Photo Credit: Arthur John Picton
https://www.flickr.com/photos/arthurjohnpicton/4383221264/
19. BALANCE
IM & TM
IN MARKET AND TO MARKET
Photo Credit: Christopher A. Dominic
https://www.flickr.com/photos/kestereverts/14333646903/in/photostream/
20. Reconcile More Frequently
with Customers
Photo Credit: Chris Beckett
https://www.flickr.com/photos/chrisjohnbeckett/16917511337/
26. PREVIOUS SITUATION
• 6 Product Managers, 6 Different Forecasting
Files
• No single data source:
To MKT
Sales from a
PDF BPCS
Report
In MKT
Sales from
an SFE
Report
FOC
realization
from a CS
Report
Previous
forecast from
previous
forecasting file
PLAN and LBE
data from a
Finance File
27. PREVIOUS SITUATION
• Unreliable In Market inventory
• Complicated FOC Realization Tracking
• No systematical archiving
• Too Long Preparation and Setup needed
before Demand Review
• Previous Forecast overwritten
28. CURRENT SITUATION
• Frequently Reconciled In Market inventory
• Speeded up FOC process
• Archiving standardized in the shared folder
• Most of the necessary data for forecasting is
consolidated by DM and circulated
• All 8 Line ADS Elements are incooperated with
Plan, LBE, Previous ADS and ADS Dimensions
• Demand Manager File and PM File
Communication is achieved
29. SOME KEY POINTS
• Keep Lag 3 visible
• Simulate KPI realization in the forecasting tool
• Make Frozen Period visible and known
• Use graphs to analyze trends and variances
versus plan and previous forecast
• Create easy comparison vs. benchmarks
• Automated Summary Reports for fast reviews
30. FOLLOW UP
FINE TUNE
WITHIN THE MONTH
Photo Credit: Christopher A. Dominic
https://www.flickr.com/photos/kestereverts/14333646903/in/photostream/
36. Photo Credit: Jesse Scott
https://www.flickr.com/photos/75628938@N00/6940356708
Onur Sezgin
ABBOTT LABORATORIES
EPD TURKEY
DEMAND AND PROCESS
MANAGER
Thank you