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Finding the story in the data - Ray Poynter - 2015

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#NewMR Webinar by Ray Poynter looking at how to find the story in the data. Covering topics like the use of Frameworks.

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Finding the story in the data - Ray Poynter - 2015

  1. 1. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Learn  How  To  Find  The   Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter         December  2015   #NewMR  2015     Corporate  Sponsors   #NewMR  2015     Supporters   Schlesinger  Associates   Keen  as  Mustard  
  2. 2. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Why  are  we  interested  in  storytelling?   Memorable   ABenCon   Grabbing   Easier  to   understand   Gives   coherent   message   Shows  we   understand  it  
  3. 3. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   The  data  doesn’t   speak  for  itself  
  4. 4. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Storytelling  –  NarraHve  Theme     Wake   Breakfast   Travel   Work   Lunch   Work   Drinking   Travel   Sleep   Get  changed   Warm  up   Run   Warm  down   Shower   Get  changed   •  Smallpox  emerged   about  10,000  years  ago   •  300-­‐500  million  deaths  during   20th  Century   •  One  of  the  first  to  be  tackled   by  vaccinaCon   •  Declared  exCnct  in  1979   •  One  of  only  2  so  far   (Rinderpest)   •  Let’s  tackle  others,  e.g.  Polio  
  5. 5. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Frameworks   Most  of  the  teams  that  reliably  produce  good  analysis   and  useful  stories  use  frameworks   –  Individuals  are  less  dependent  on  frameworks   Elements  of  frameworks   –  How  to  frame  the  problem   –  Linking  the  project  to  a  wider  context   –  A  standard  method  of  organising  the  data  (qual  and  quant)   –  SystemaCc  methods  of  analysing  data   –  A  preferred  method  for  extracCng  the  story  and  linking  it   the  wider  context  
  6. 6. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Further  Reading   Published  by  Wiley,  2004  
  7. 7. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   From  Data  to  Stories   1.  Define  the  problem   2.  Establish  what  is  currently  known/believed   3.  Check  and  organise  the  data   4.  Find  the  message  in  the  data   5.  Cra`  and  tell  the  story   Starts  when  the  request  for  a  study  emerges.  It   does  NOT  start  when  the  fieldwork  finishes.  
  8. 8. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Define  the  Problem   “A  problem  defined  is  a  problem  half-­‐solved”   Sources  of  informaCon:   –  The  request  for  a  study   –  The  proposal   –  Discussions  between  sponsor,  insight  team  and  supplier   •  What  is  the  background  to  the  project?   •  What  would  success  look  like?   •  What  acCons  should  follow  from  the  research?   •  What  do  people  think  the  results  are  going  to  be?   (Or,  what  are  the  prevalent  hypotheses?)   Smith  &  Fletcher,  2004  
  9. 9. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Establish  What  is  Already  Known?   •  The  frameworks  approach  avoids  focusing  on   just  the  current  research  project   •  The  analysis,  the  validity,  and  the  story  need  to   blend  research  with  the  wider  context   •  The  context  is  a  web  of  exisCng  knowledge:   –  Within  your  organisaCon   –  Within  the  agency/supplier   –  In  the  public  realm  
  10. 10. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Who  is  the  project  for?    _________________     What  is  the  business  issue/problem  that  is  being  addressed?   __________________________________________________     What  does  the  business  want  to  do,  once  it  has  addressed  this  issue?   ______________________________________________________     What  do  we  already  know?    Item  Held  by:  DescripHon   1     ______  ______  ______________   2     ______  ______  ______________   3     ______  ______  ______________     AssumpHons  and  predicHons    Who  What   1.     ______  ______   2.     ______  ______   Simplified  
  11. 11. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Assembling  the  Evidence   •  QuanCtaCve   – Standardize?  Missing  Data?  Indexing?  Re-­‐basing?   •  QualitaCve   – TranslaCons?  Transcripts?  Notes?   •  The  nature  of  the  sources   – Credibility?  Bias?  InteracCons?  
  12. 12. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015  
  13. 13. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015  
  14. 14. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015  
  15. 15. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Normalising  by  ‘Share  of’  
  16. 16. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   ‘Share  of’  is  a  relaHve  measure  
  17. 17. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Normalizing  by  Coding   •  SenCment  analysis,  open-­‐ended  comments   converted  to  PosiCve,  NegaCve  and  Neutral   •  DigiCzing  from  analogue  to  binary   •  AllocaCng  to  segments   •  Scoring  different  elements   –  (think  American  Football  or  Rugby,  different  points  for   different  events,  leading  to  points  in  a  league)  
  18. 18. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Normalizing  by   Growth  PaXerns   Forbes:  hBp://bit.ly/NewMR_208  
  19. 19. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Is  My  Data  Right?   We  see  paBerns,  even   when  they  are  not  there.     Image  from  Viking  I,  1976   Mars  –  led  to  theories  of   intelligent  life.  
  20. 20. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Spurious  CorrelaHons  
  21. 21. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   HRT  and  CHD   •  Several  studies  showed  that  women  taking  HRT   were  less  likely  to  suffer  from  coronary  heart  disease   •  Some  leading  doctors  propose  that  HRT  was  protecCng   women  against  CHD   •  Randomised  Controlled  tests  showed  that  HRT  created   a  slight  increase  in  risk  of  CHD   •  Huh!   –  Women  taking  HRT  were  typically  from  higher  income,   healthier  groups  in  society  –  who  have  lower  rates  of  CHD  
  22. 22. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Embedding  Frameworks   •  Establish  your  framework   •  Share  it  with  colleagues   •  Share  it  with  suppliers   •  New  projects  can  be  designed  to  produce   inputs  that  work  well  with  the  framework  you   are  using  
  23. 23. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Finding  the  Story   1.  Know  what  the  quesCon  is.  Have  an  idea  of   what  success  looks  like.   2.  What  is  the  big  story?   –  What  do  most  people  do?  Why  do  most  people  do  it?   3.  What  are  the  relevant  excepCons?   4.  Determine  how  the  message  in  the  data   answers  the  business  quesCon  and  cra`  that  as   a  story.  
  24. 24. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Find  the  Total  Picture  First   Then  the  relevant  detail   Quant   •  Look  at  the  Total  Column   •  Look  for  big  numbers  and   big  paBerns   •  What  is  the  big  picture?   •  This  will  frame  the  detail   Qual   •  Read  the  transcripts   –  Unless  you  conducted  the   fieldwork   •  Create  notes  and  memos   •  What  are  the  main   messages   In  the  context  of  the  Business  QuesCon  
  25. 25. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Where  does  the  best  MR  come  from?   Column  %   Which  of  the  following  best  describes  you?   Countries  Merged   Total   Research  or   Consultancy   Supplier   Supplier  to  the   research  industry   Research  Buyer/ User   Academic  +  Other   English  Speaking   Non-­‐English   Speaking   UK   63%   61%   60%   92%   40%   66%   60%   USA   51%   52%   50%   46%   60%   52%   50%   Germany   18%   13%   30%   15%   60%   16%   21%   Australia   15%   14%   15%   15%   20%   16%   12%   Canada   11%   8%   20%   0%   40%   9%   14%   France   7%   7%   10%   8%   0%   7%   7%   Japan   5%   3%   15%   0%   0%   3%   7%   Brazil   3%   3%   5%   0%   0%   3%   2%   China   2%   1%   5%   0%   0%   3%   0%   Italy   2%   1%   5%   0%   0%   0%   5%   Other   8%   10%   10%   0%   0%   9%   7%   None  of  these   11%   15%   5%   0%   0%   9%   14%   Column  n   109   71   20   13   5   67   42   The  wrong  approach  to  starCng  analysis  
  26. 26. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Where  does  the  best  MR  come  from?   Column  %   Which  of  the  following  best  describes  you?   Countries  Merged   Total   Research  or   Consultancy   Supplier   Supplier  to  the   research  industry   Research  Buyer/ User   Academic  +  Other   English  Speaking   Non-­‐English   Speaking   UK   63%   61%   60%   92%   40%   66%   60%   USA   51%   52%   50%   46%   60%   52%   50%   Germany   18%   13%   30%   15%   60%   16%   21%   Australia   15%   14%   15%   15%   20%   16%   12%   Canada   11%   8%   20%   0%   40%   9%   14%   France   7%   7%   10%   8%   0%   7%   7%   Japan   5%   3%   15%   0%   0%   3%   7%   Brazil   3%   3%   5%   0%   0%   3%   2%   China   2%   1%   5%   0%   0%   3%   0%   Italy   2%   1%   5%   0%   0%   0%   5%   Other   8%   10%   10%   0%   0%   9%   7%   None  of  these   11%   15%   5%   0%   0%   9%   14%   Column  n   109   71   20   13   5   67   42  
  27. 27. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   0%   10%   20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   70%   Which  Country  Produces  the  Best  MR?   The  Big  Message   Big  story   QuesHons   Why  are  the  UK  &  USA  so  high/different?   Is  this  true  for  everybody?   What  are  the  implicaCons  of  this?  
  28. 28. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   The  Cartographer  and  the  Journalist  
  29. 29. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   The  Lead   Nora  Ephron   When  Harry  Met  Sally   Sleepless  in  Sea1le   1st  Day  in  Journalism  School   5  Ws  (Who,  What,  When,  Where  &  Why?)     Asked  to  write  the  Lead  for  the  school  newspaper     “The  en3re  school  faculty  will  travel  to  Sacramento  next   Thursday  for  a  colloquium  in  new  teaching  methods.   Among  the  speakers  will  be  anthropologist  Margaret   Mead,  college  president  Dr.  Robert  Maynard  Hutchins,  and   California  Governor  Edmund  Brown.”     All  the  students  wrote  about  the  5Ws  –  good,  but  not   right.     The  Lead?   No  school  next  Thursday!  
  30. 30. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Different  PerspecHves  
  31. 31. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   The  Tenuous  Link  Between  Finding  the  Story   and  Telling  the  Story   •  In  finding  the  story  we  have  mulCple  data  sources   •  We  have  differing  degrees  of  confidence  in  those   sources   –  A  conjoint  study  with  consulCng  surgeons  might  be  our   best  source  for  finding  the  story   •  The  best  way  to  convey  the  story  does  not  have  to  rest   on  the  ‘best’  data   –  A  vox  pop  video  with  a  paCent  might  be  a  poor  way  to  find   the  story,  but  it  can  be  a  great  way  to  tell  the  story  
  32. 32. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   What  are  the  key  findings?   1.  Link  to  the  project  objecCves   2.  ‘Need  to  know’  not  ‘nice  to  know’   3.  Supported  by  paBerns  or  themes  in  the  data   –  Not  just  a  single  data  point   4.  Clear  findings   –  e.g.  In  the  chart  UK  and  USA  were  a  long  way   ahead  in  terms  of  Best  Research  
  33. 33. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Hans  Rosling   1.  What  is  his  key  message?   2.  What  is  the  story?   3.  What  has  he  le`  out?   hBps://youtu.be/jbkSRLYSojo  
  34. 34. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Hans  Rosling  &  NarraHve  Theme?   Key  Message:   –  It  is  possible  to  tackle  world  health  problems   Key  Story:   1.  200  years  ago  short-­‐life  expectancy  was  the  norm,  then  the  West   moved  ahead,  but  over  the  last  50  years  most  countries  have  caught   up   2.  There  are  some  countries  sCll  behind,  and  some  regions  of  other   countries,  but  since  most  of  the  world  has  been  solved,  the  rest  can   be   Key  narraHve  axis:   –  200  years  from  1810,  from  bad  to  good  
  35. 35. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   What  Did  Hans  Rosling  Leave  Out?   Numbers:   –  A  few  dates,  3  life  expectancies,  3  income  levels   –  Based  on  200  countries  and  120,000  numbers   DefiniHons:   –  Which  200  countries?   –  How  did  he  deal  with  country  amalgamaCon  and   fragmentaCon?   517  other  staHsHcs:   –  GapMinder  lists  519  key  global  stats,  over  Cme  
  36. 36. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Using  an  Insight  
  37. 37. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   You’re  not  you  when  you  are  hungry   •  People  behave  differently   when  they  are  hungry   •  Snickers  is  big  enough  to   end  the  hunger   •  Global  campaign   –  Local  execuCons   •  Sales  increase   –  e.g.  USA  sales  +8%  
  38. 38. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Developing  your  narraHve  theme   •  Select  your  primary  axis   •  This  is  the  elevator  pitch   •  Use  a  structure  that  works  with  the  audience   •  Typical  USA  structure   –  The  main  finding  was  X,  so  we  recommend  Y  &  Z   –  Now,  let’s  tells  you  why  it  is  X,  and  why  are  it’s  Y  &  Z   –  But  it  can  be  different  in  different  places  
  39. 39. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   The  Big  Picture   •  Develop  a  framework  approach   •  Define  the  problem  before  you  try  to  find  the   answer  to  it   •  Put  the  research  project  into  the  context  of  what   is  already  known   •  What  do  you  want  the  client  to  think,  feel,  do   a`er  hearing  the  results?   –  The  story  is  a  device  to  deliver  that  acCon  
  40. 40. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Thank  You!       Follow  me  on  TwiXer  @RayPoynter     Or  sign-­‐up  to  receive  our  weekly  mailing  at     hXp://NewMR.org      
  41. 41. Learn  How  To  Find  The  Story  In  The  Data     Ray  Poynter,  UK,  December  2015   Q  &  A   Ray  Poynter   The  Future  Place   #NewMR  2015     Corporate  Sponsors   #NewMR  2015     Supporters   Schlesinger  Associates   Keen  as  Mustard  

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