The document discusses the potential for "anticipatory" or "precautionary" research and outlines several key aspects it could involve, such as examining issues outside conventional domains, identifying future threats and opportunities, pioneering new research methods, and having a large impact on the economy and society. It also questions assumptions of current policies and argues that high-quality anticipatory research proposals should be theoretically humble and rigorous in their methods. Finally, it suggests such research could concentrate on potentially irreversible changes, use interdisciplinary approaches, and aim to reduce uncertainty and improve flexibility.

1. Can we research tipping
points?
If so, how?
Erik Millstone
STEPS Centre
Email: e.p.millstone@sussex.ac.uk

2. A programme of ‘anticipatory’ or ‘precautionary’ research
might specialize in projects that would do some or all of the
following:
be novel and imaginative, examining issues that fall outside
conventional research domains
aim to identify and assess future threats (early warnings) and
opportunities, including radical alternatives to current practices
pioneer new research methods
provide some kind of early listening, and
have potentially a large impact on the economy and/or society.
question assumptions underlying current policies
www.steps-centre.org

3. Stirling et al argued (to the Forward Studies Unit) that a
precautionary approach is epistemologically humble about
cognitive frameworks of scientific research but more
rigorous about investigative methods.
Should we therefore expect high quality anticipatory
research proposals to be epistemologically and
theoretically humble about their own assumptions and
more rigorous about their investigative methods than
conventional proposals?
www.steps-centre.org

4. Should anticipatory/precautionary research
concentrate on potentially pervasive and irreversible
changes?
Should a considerable proportion of such research be
multi-disciplinary and use inter-disciplinary research
methods? Or could it be single-disciplinary?
www.steps-centre.org

5. Should we expect anticipatory/precautionary research to
include:
early listening
the detection of weak signals
anticipate problems and opportunities ‘the day
after tomorrow’
to reduce uncertainty
locate ignorance
improve flexibility and
• provide resilience in the form of robust and
adaptable systems?
www.steps-centre.org