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Classes #4 + #5 Paris
Brian David Butler Professor of international finance and global entrepreneurship with Forum-Nexus Study Abroad.  Guest lecturer with the  IQS Business School  of the Ramon Llull University in Barcelona, and the  Catholic University of Milan .  Previously, Brian taught finance, economics and global trade courses at  Thunderbird’s Global MBA  program in Miami, and worked as a research analyst with the  Columbia Business School  in New York City. Brian currently lives in Recife, Brazil where he is teaching classes at the university  Faculdade Boa Viagem . A global citizen, Brian was born in Canada, raised in Switzerland (where he attended international British school), educated through university in the U.S., started his career with a Japanese company, moved to New York to work as an analyst, married a Brazilian, and has traveled extensively in Latin America, Asia, Europe and North America.  [email_address] LinkedIn/briandbutler Skype: briandbutler
Brian Butler is a specialist in international economic analysis, and is founder of the prestigious “GloboTrends“ ( www.globotrends.com ) online economics site, which has been featured as syndicated content on Nouriel Roubini’s RGE Monitor, Emerginvest.com, Business Week Exchange, Wikinvest.com, and other leading news outlets.  http:// globotrends.pbworks.com /  ,  http:// blog.globotrends.com /
Find my slides: ,[object Object]
Lecture Schedule* * Does not include professional visits,  *Subject to change, modification without warning ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Observations of France / Euro… ? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Team Project
Who are your team members? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Team Project ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Team Project ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Team Project - II. Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Team Project - III.  Recommendations & Predictions for future ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Group Project, “The Euro Zone – before, during and after the Global Economic Crisis”
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Group Project, “The Euro Zone – before, during and after the Global Economic Crisis”
Who are your team members? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Euro vs EU
European Union & Eurozone http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone
Group assignment Questions: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Question: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
EU  + the Eurozone what do you notice? What stands out? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone   Which country is this?
16 Eurozone members: Austria Belgium Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain + 2 islands:  Malta  and  Cyprus Question:  which BIG countries are NOT on this LIST? Hint: look at map… 16 Eurozone members:
Not (yet) Eurozone All member states of the EU, except for  Denmark , the  United Kingdom  (and perhaps Sweden) are obliged to adopt the euro as their sole currency when they meet the criteria. Estonia  will join the eurozone on 1 January 2011. [2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_the_eurozone
Requirements to join ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_the_eurozone
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_the_eurozone
Who might be next? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_the_eurozone Estonia  will join the eurozone on 1 January 2011. [2]
[object Object]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_status_and_usage_of_the_euroment_of_the_eurozone Pegged (“fixed”) to the EURO
Free floating EU members – the rest ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/54fdc05e-6692-11df-aeb1-00144feab49a.html
IMF Lending in  Europe http://www.imf.org/external/region/eur/map/index.htm   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Observe… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/54fdc05e-6692-11df-aeb1-00144feab49a.html
Pegged outside really hurt… ,[object Object],http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/54fdc05e-6692-11df-aeb1-00144feab49a.html
Free floating EU members ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/54fdc05e-6692-11df-aeb1-00144feab49a.html
Danger for those that borrowed in Euros… ,[object Object],http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/54fdc05e-6692-11df-aeb1-00144feab49a.html
… (on the other hand) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/54fdc05e-6692-11df-aeb1-00144feab49a.html
… (on the other hand) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/54fdc05e-6692-11df-aeb1-00144feab49a.html
Review…
Who can tell me… what is the difference between a liquidity crisis, and a solvency crisis for banks?
Competitive Devaluations Dr. Kishore Dash, January 20, 2007 “ Beggar thy neighbor” Last class we talked about “competitive devaluations”… what did we mean?  When was this a problem?  What is the danger?
http://mohammedfikri.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/bretton_woods_sign.jpg Who can tell me what happened at Bretton Woods ?  Did the financial world become more or less stable afterward? When did it fail? Why?
Fixed vs. Flexible exchange rates ,[object Object],[object Object]
Brief History – Key points ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Fixed Fixed Flexible Flexible The gold standard (~1850–1914) Fixed exchange rates during the 1920s Great Depression era Post WWII Bretton Woods / IMF system (1944–1971) 1970’s –today:  since U.S. left the gold/dollar standard ?????
FIXED system…  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Mundell Trilemma Decisions countries must make… Who can tell me:  what is the “Mundell Trilemma”?  What are the 3 factors a country wants?  Why?
Difficult Choices…  the “Mundell Trilemma” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Mundell Trilemma ,[object Object],Who can tell me:  Example – USA Why does the US want all three?  Which 2 did they choose?  (now vs. past)
Mundell Trilemma ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Who can tell me:  Example – USA Why does the US want all three?  Which 2 did they choose?  (now vs. past)
Mundell Trilemma ,[object Object],[object Object],Who can tell me:  Example – Spain or France: Why does Spain want all three?  Which 2 did they choose?  (now vs. past)
Mundell Trilemma ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
GROUP ASSIGNMENT ,[object Object],[object Object]
China + Mundell Trilemma ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Review: ,[object Object],[object Object]
Controlling the economy 2 tools – monetary + fiscal policy
Monetary vs. Fiscal Policy ,[object Object],[object Object]
Monetary vs. Fiscal Policy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fiscal Policy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Monetary policy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Monetary policy – to speed up economy (lower interest rates, print money) http://www.daily-bourse.fr/images/analyses/2009/03/30/Cartoon%20Emergency.gif
 
Monetary policy ,[object Object],[object Object]
Inflation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
SPEND today!!! (don’t save)
Hyper-Inflation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Inflation – why bad ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Inflation:  effect on life savings ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Inflation:  effect on life savings ,[object Object]
Inflation:  bad for banks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
On the other hand… ,[object Object]
Inflation = 2 nd  biggest fear? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Deflation –  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Deflation  http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/06/commodity-inflation-versus-asset.html
Deflation  http://futureproofkilkenny.org/?page_id=907
Deflation –  ,[object Object],[object Object]
Monetary Policy + deflation  ,[object Object],[object Object]
Review ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Series of Crises
Understanding Risks: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Understanding Risks: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Series of Crises ,[object Object],[object Object],Martin Wolf book, “Fixing Global Finance”
Series of Crises – 1990’s ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://globotrends.pbworks.com/history-of-economic-crisis-and-currency-devaluations
Series of Crises – 1990’s ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://globotrends.pbworks.com/history-of-economic-crisis-and-currency-devaluations
http://thebodegablog.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/asean-map.gif
Series of Crises – 1990’s ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://globotrends.pbworks.com/history-of-economic-crisis-and-currency-devaluations
Series of Crises – 1990’s ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://globotrends.pbworks.com/history-of-economic-crisis-and-currency-devaluations
Series of Crises – 1990’s ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Martin Wolf book, “Fixing Global Finance”
  Key event:  Asian Crisis ‘97-98 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Key event:  Asian Crisis ‘97-98 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Key event:  Asian Crisis ‘97-98 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Money Flows…. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
response… ,[object Object],Martin Wolf, Fixing Global Finance, p56
Key lesson ,[object Object]
Imagine… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Martin Wolf, Fixing Global Finance
Question ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Answer ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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