2. Past climate is the key to preview future climate
and helps to explain present climate change.
Understanding present climate change and projecting climate change and impacts
into the future can be greatly helped by knowledge of climate changes in the
past.
The next slides will show that most of the Earth’s geological history was
characterized by a warm climate, with average global surface temperatures 9-
12 °C warmer than now, and with atmospheric CO2 levels 3-5 times higher
than in the pre-industrial Era. The warm climate sometimes turned into major
glaciation periods (Ice Ages) that lasted 30-300 million years. At present we
live again in a glaciation period interupted by cycles of warming every 100,000
years. During glacial periods CO2 levels dropped significantly, as did sea level.
The major glaciations (blue areas) during the Earth's entire
existence.[Ref]
2
3. How can we assess climate of the past?
Past climate can not directly be assessed but can be reconstructed on the basis of what is
called « proxies ». These are present physical parameters, that have signatures of certain
climate parameters in the past.
Temperature reconstruction proxies
1) Oxygen and Hydrogen isotope ratios in ice cores and in sediments in sea, land and
lake floors : By drilling in polar ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica and in mountain
glaciers, cylindric specimens can be sampled and the relative quantity of the stable
oxygen18 (18O) and deuterium (D) isotopes be determined. Water molecules containing
the heavier 18O or D evaporate at a higher temperature than water molecules containing
the normal 16O and hydrogen, due to the higher atomic weight of the former. Similarly,
when water vapor condenses, heavier water molecules holding 18O atoms tend to
precipitate first. Changes in 18O /16O ratio over time (δ18O) is therefore indicative of
temperature change and can be followed in air trapped within fallen snow that compacts
to ice or in the ice itself. δ18O in ice layers is indicative for the temperature at the time
the ice was formed. The deeper the drilling the older the cores. The deepest drills are >4
km and contain proxies of > 800,000 years old.
Sediments are often analyzed for δ18O in foraminifera (or forams) and diatoms. These
are shelled microorganisms found in aquatic and marine environments. Forams are either
planktonic (floating in the water column) or benthic (bottom dwelling). Foram shells are
made up of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) while diatom shells are composed of SiO2.
Relatively more δ 18O in shells is found in carbonate when ocean waters are cold and ice.
3
4. covers the Earth, because at lower temperature the proportion of H2
18O that evaporates
becomes lower, leaving more H2
18O in the residual water for shell formation.
2) Alkenones and Mg/Ca ratio of calcite in foraminifera and diatoms in sediments may yield
information about their temperature at formation.
3) Remnants of vegetation, animals, plankton, corals or pollen in land, lakes and ocean
floor sediments may be characteristic of certain climatic zones
4) Direct temperature measurements in rocks: Rock has a very low thermal conductivity. It
can take centuries for rocks underground to become aware of changes in surface
temperatures. By taking very careful measurements of the temperature of rock in boreholes
tens and hundreds of meters underground, it is possible to detect shifts in the long-term
mean surface temperature at that location. As thermal diffusion is a very slow process, short
term changes are averaged out. This technique only provides information about changes in
the average temperature at the century resolution.
5) The type of living species in fossils can be typical for a temperature range. For example,
plankton live in narrow temperature ranges.
6) Tree rings are indicative for warmth, although also for humidity and nutrient conditions
The map on the left shows the
locations of the 951 boreholes
in the University of Michigan
global database of boreholes.
4
5. Reconstruction of CO2 levels:
1) Direct analysis in air trapped in ice core layers up to 800,000 years ago.
2) Reconstruction from carbon isotopic ratio (δ13C) in carbonate of fossilized soils
(paleosols) or of phytoplankton (foramenifera) shells, that remained intact over millions of
years. δ13C is the ratio of the stable carbon isotopes 13C/12C.[1] Carbon in inorganic
carbonates not derived from living organisms shows the natural isotope ratio signature of
1/99 without preferential choice for 13C or 12C, while carbon in materials originated from
photosynthesis is depleted of 13C, because plants prefer 12C over 13C in photosynthesis.
Carbon in fossil shells is therefore also depleted in 13C. δ13C depends on the levels of CO2
in the atmosphere and on the amounts of CO2 being respired by organic matter in the soil
itself.
3) Determination of stomata in fossil plants: Stomata are pores to breathe in the CO2 that
plant leaves need for photosynthesis. When CO2 is abundant, plants down regulate the
number of stomata in their leaves. Stomata density in fossil plants is therefore an important
proxy for atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
Reconstruction of ocean currents. Ocean sediment made up of microfossils and
mineral grains delivered to the sea from continent erosion can tell about ocean currents in
the past. Diatoms particularly take advantage of upwelling ocean water that is richer in
nutrients.
Reconstruction of ocean pH: Ocean pH can be reconstructed up to >20 million years ago
from the ratio of stable boron isotopes 11B/10B in ocean sediments of foraminifera.
5
6. Reconstruction of Wind directions. Volcanic dust, sea salt, black carbon and desert
dust in the air are deposited on glaciers and ice sheets and accumulated with snow in the
ice. When the dust shows up in ocean cores, its chemistry can be used to determine where
it came from. By mapping the distribution of the dust, wind direction and strength can be
inferred. The dust also may reveal how dry and dusty the climate may have been at a
particular time. Read more
Climate models. It has become possible to represent the different physical processes
associated with the climate system as differential equations that can be numerically
resolved by computers. These physical processes include atmospheric and ocean
circulation, the reciprocal relationships of the latter, ice formation and melting dynamics, the
distribution of δ18O in the oceans, ecological parameters of carbonate forming organisms
and others. If the various forcing parameters are known over time they can be entered in
the model that then computes the likely climate evolution over time. The calculated climate
is then compared to the climate evolution constructed from proxies. The closer the modeled
changes match those observed in the sediments or ice cores, the greater the confidence in
the realism of the models. Multiple regression analysis can dissect out the different forcing
factors involved in the past climate change.
6
8. Palaeoclimate drivers
At time scales of 1-10 million years tectonic activity is the major driver of climate change.
Increased tectonic activity causes continental drift and increases CO2 release by
volcanism and sea-floor spreading, promoting global warming by the increased
greenhouse effect. Continental drift, in turn , determines the position of the continents and
affects the thermohaline circulation. The latter transfers heat between the equatorial
regions and the poles and in this way affects climate. When landmasses are concentrated
near the poles, there is an increased chance for
snow and ice to accumulate as there is more cooling over polar regions.
Small changes in the Earth’s obliquity, eccentricity and precession change the amount of
solar radiation reaching the Earth (Milankovitch cycles) which can tip the balance
between summers in which the packed winter snow completely melts and summers in which
the winter snow persists until the following winter. If snow remains accumulating it strongly
increases albedo, resulting in cooling. Moreover, accumulation of snow and ice on land
decreases sea level.
Source
8
9. Geological time scales (source)
Look here or he re how the Earth land and sea surface
evolved over those times ! Source
Numbers are million years
Period Epoch Date
Quaternary
Holocene 0–0.0117
Pleistocene
0.0117–0.126
0.126–0.781
0.781–1.806
1.806–2.588
9
10. Eocene (50 Ma)
Mid-Jurassic (170 Ma)
Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary (65 Ma)
Pleistocene (0.5 Ma)
Gondwana
Mid-Ordovician (470 Ma)
Ice
Continents during geological history
Present
Ma = million years ago Source
10
11. Climate changes in the Phanerozoic
- from 500 million years ago
Temperature: There have been periods when global average temperature was 9-12 °C
higher than present (15 °C), as derived from δ18O in fossils. [1] The Earth was a hothouse
without any ice caps on the poles. Tropical waters are assumed to have been around
45°C.
Sporadically there were long periods of glaciation (indicated by the blue bars in the Figure)
over the Antarctic area. During warm periods, masses of water evaporated from the
oceans that, upon cooling over the huge supercontinent known as ‘Gondwana’, that was
located over the Southern hemisphere and Antarctic region at that era, precipitated as snow.
Packed snow became ice, giving cooling of the Earth (increased ice-albedo).
Source (adapted)11
12. CO2: Overall, temperature changes correlated with atmospheric CO2 levels, lowest levels
being reached during periods of glaciation. However, absolute values were very
divergent according to the proxy used (See Figure). Boron, phytoplankton and fossil plant
stomata proxies generally give lower CO2 levels. A recent paper in PNAS showed
previous δ13C determinationsin in soil carbonates overestimated atmospheric CO2 levels;
the paper calculated with a new method that CO2 levels during the Phanerozoic was
maximum 1500 ppm and that the fluctuations were best in line with those reconstructed
from the stomata proxies.
Source: IPCC AR4 Chapter 6
12
13. Sea level: Over most of geologic history, long-term average sea level has been
significantly higher than today. Sea level rose upon warming and lowered during
appearance or expansion of land ice (ice sheets and glaciers), due to the retention of
rain once frozen on land.
The Figure shows two sea level reconstructions during the Phanerozoic. The scale of change
during the last glacial/interglacial transition is indicated with a black bar. (From Wikipedia)
13
14. The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) – a
high CO2 and high temperature World
The Paleocene Epoch followed the mass extinction event of the dinosaurs at the
end of the Cretaceous, ~65 million years ago. The paleocene was cooler and dryer than
the preceding Cretaceous. It was followed by the Eocene during which the Earth
became a “hothouse”.
PETM is a short period of warming, with average global temperature 4–7°C higher
than pre-industrial, from ~55.5 to 55.3 million years ago. Sea surface
temperatures in the Tropics was ~35 °C.[16] There was little or no ice on the poles.
Due to the reduced albedo, temperature anomaly was greatest at the poles (polar
amplification). During the summer temperature in the Arctic was probably over 20 °C.
Fossils of tropical plants and animals were found at high latitudes (for example, giant
turtles and alligators were living north of the Arctic circle), consistent with the unusual
warming in the northern hemisphere.[Ref]
There was a a prominent global drop in carbon isotope ratio (δ13C), consistent with a
massive carbon release (CO2 and/or CH4) into the atmosphere and ocean (4500–
6800 gigatonnes Carbon equivalents), leading to global ocean acidification and
dissolution of carbonate deposited on ocean basins (see IPCC AR5 WG1,
chapt. 5, section 5.3.1). This occurred in 5,000–20,000 years. Notice that this
roughly corresponds to an average rate of ~0.5–1.0 gigatonnes Carbon per year
which is ~10-20 times less than the present yearly anthropogenic emission.
14
15. Various reconstructions found atmospheric CO2 values of 2000-3500 ppm[6] [7],
although IPCC concluded in IPCC AR5 WG1 chapter 5 that values remained below
1125 ppm. Strong continental drift, that made continents move toward their present
positions, may have been the initial driving force. This caused excessive volcanic
activity injecting large amounts of CO2 (13C-depleted) in the atmosphere. Warming by
the increased greenhouse effect of CO2 may have been further enhanced by
temperature-induced destabilization of methane clathrate (stable methane-water
cristals in the sea floor). The PETM was accompanied by a mass extinction of 35-50%
of benthic foraminifera over the course of ~1,000 years, probably due to to rapid
temperature increases in ocean bottom water and a concomitant reduction in
dissolved oxygen. However, planktonic foraminifera diversified, and dinoflagellates
bloomed. There is no evidence of increased extinction rate among the most terrestrial
biota[Ref] On the contrary, despite the “hothouse” nature of the Earth, several major
mammalian orders, including the Artiodactyla, horses, and primates, abruptly evolved
from archaic mammals and spread across the globe over a few hundred or thousand
generations [Ref].
15
16. The Early Eocene Climatic Optimum
EECO is a period between 54 and 48 million years ago following the PETM. Average
global surface temperature further rose up to 8–14°C above preindustrial, established
in about 30,000 years. High latitude sea surface temperature was 14 - 16 °C higher
and over land 9-24 °C, CO2 concentrations were 1000-2000 ppm and continental ice
sheets were absent. Carbon release into the atmosphere was somwhat moxer than
during the PETM.
The PETM and EECO are considered “case studies” for global warming and massive
carbon input into the atmosphere under present anthropogenic carbon emission
scenarios. However, IPCC attributes low to medium confidence to the available proxy
data and extrapolations need to be done with caution (see IPCC AR5 WG1, chapt. 5,
section 5.3.1).
16
17. The Azolla event
The Azolla event occurred in the middle Eocene epoch,[1] ~49 million years ago
and lasted 800,000 years. Enormous Blooms of the freshwater fern Azolla
developed in the Arctic Ocean over a surface of 4,000,000 km². The continental
configuration at that epoch was such that the Arctic sea was almost entirely cut off
from the wider oceans (see next slide). Reconstructed average year temperature
was 13 °C over the arctic sea at that epoch and caused large evaporation making
the sea water saltier and hence more dense. Heavy rainfall[7] over land caused
high discharge of fresh water from rivers, which caused accumulation of a layer of
fresh water over the surface of the dense sea water [8]. At the average
temperature of 13 °C Azolla could easily grow on that layer, especially during
summer when days are long, as it is a very fast growing species and converts
Nitrogen of the air to nutrients. Massive amounts of dead Azolla sank to the sea
floor where it did not rotten since the dense sea layer underneath was probably
anoxic because it did not mix with ocean flows nor with the less dense layer above.
Dead vegetation was incorporated into sediments and buried. Azolla
photosynthesis removed massive amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere and its
incorporation into sediment sequestered the carbon. This occurred for 800,000
years over a surface of 4,000,000 km², largely enough to have lowered
atmospheric CO2 and initiate cooling.
17
19. The transformation from a "greenhouse Earth" state
to an “icehouse Earth”.
After the Azolla event the Earth continued to cool, up to the Industrial Era. Antartic
glaciation was present at ~35 million years ago. In the Arctic a significant ice
sheet was present since ~3 million years ago. The Figures below show the
temperature decline over different oceans and the Antarctic, as reconstructed from
ice cores and ocean sediment cores.
A major contribution to the expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet was the creation of the
Antarctic circumpolar current,[26] that presumably isolated the cold water around the
Antarctic and reduced heat transport from the (sub)tropical ocean to the Antarctic.
From Nature 486, 97–100 (2012)
Subtropical East
Pacific
Northeast
Pacific
Northwest
Pacific
SST°C
SST°C
152025
51015202530
15 12 9 6 3 0
From Nature 486,
97–100 (07 June
2012)
Million years ago
From Wikipedia
19
20. Proxy-based reconstructions show the steady decrease of atmospheric CO2 levels in
parallel to the temperature decrease between 49 and 23 million years ago.
Reconstruction with a new boron/calcium (B/Ca) ratio proxy found CO2 concentrations
of 350 - 450 ppm between 20 and 10 million years ago and a recent alkenone-based
proxy study showed a further CO2 decrease from 5 to 2 million years ago(Ref).
Millions of years ago
Figure from
IPCC AR5
WG1
20
21. Climate change during the Pliocene
In the mid-pliocene (3.3 – 3 million years ago) the global average temperature was again
3–10 °C higher than today,[1] [PNAS ], 3–4° C warmer at low latitudes, and up to 10° C
warmer nearer the poles. Evidence from Lake El'gygytgyn, in northeast Arctic Russia,
shows that 3.6 to 3.4 million years ago, summer temperatures were ~8°C warmer than
today.There was near complete deglaciation of the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice
Sheet. Average sea surface temperature increased with 2-6 °C, particularly between
Greenland and W-Europe (see Figure). [Ref] (Science. 340:1421-7, 2013).
Recent studies showed that only a relatively small rise (~35% higher) in atmospheric
CO2 levels was associated with this substantial global warming, and that CO2 levels at
peak temperatures were between about 365-415 ppm, [Ref] [Ref] [Ref] [Ref]
Global sea level was 7-20 m higher [2].
-10 -6 -2 2 6 10 °C
Februari August
Source21
22. Both temperature and CO2 levels continued to decrease subsequent to the Pliocene
Millions of years ago
5 4 3 2 1 0
From Nature. 2013
Apr 4;496(7443):43-
22
23. The pleistocene glaciation and the Ice Age cycles
The post-Pliocene temperature decrease resulted in the onset of the Northern Hemisphere
glaciation.[9] [3] Greenland ice sheet started to grow significantly ~3 million years ago. But on
top of the downward temperature trend, rapid cycles of warming and cooling started to
develop , marking a new epoch, the Pleistocene. These cycles (now 52 in total) are known
as glacial-interglacial cycles. Between 2.5 and 1 million years ago an average cycle was
~41,000 years. During the last million years cycle period became ~100,000 years. Warm
interglacial periods have an abrupt onset and last some 20,000 years after which there is
stepwise cooling at a slower rate and glaciation (Ice Age).
During the interglacial warmer periods, surface temperature was 10-14 °C higher than
during the coldest period (glaciation maximum). Glaciation periods were drier and dustier.
CO2 changes followed the same pattern. Levels dropped as low as ~190 ppm during
glaciation and increased up to ~280 ppm during interglacial periods. Several studies have
found that changes in CO2 levels lag 400-800 years behind the changes in temperature
(Read more). However a paper in Science in 2013 shows synchrony between
temperature and CO2 during the last interglacial warming period, based on N15 isotope data
in trapped air in Antarctic ice cores.
The glacial-interglacial cycles are now explained on the basis of the Milankovitch cycles in
solar radiation input. The initial trigger for warming are particular values of the Earth’s
obliquity, eccentricity and precession that increase the amount of incoming solar energy.
However, these variations alone cannot account for the large differences between glacial and
interglacial temperatures. The warming from solar input is believed to be enhanced by
several internal feedback systems between the climate, the ice sheets and the warming-
induced release of CO2 from the oceans (read more in Nature 500, 190–193 , 2013). 23
24. The right Figure shows Antarctic
temperature, insolation (energy
input from sun in W/m2) and
atmospheric CO2 over the last
800,000 years reconstructed from
Antarctic ice cores and Milankovitch
cycle calculations. Variations of CO2
level are highly correlated with
temperature variations. Notice that the
CO2 levels integrated over time (area
under the CO2 curve) were higher
during the MIS-11 and the Eemian
interglacials and that this was also the
case with temperature. The Figure
also shows that temperature rose in
parallel with increased insolation,
although this was less pronounced
during the MIS-11 interglacial.
However, during MIS-11 CO2 forcing
integrated over time was larger. Also
notice the coordinated fluctuations in
atmospheric CH4.
MIS-11 Eemian
Summersolsticeinsolation
at65°North(W/m2)
Source
24
25. It is during the Pleistocene epoch that the genus Homo (Homo habilis) has evolved.
Homo sapiens evolved during the last two Ice Ages
The plot underneath shows the linear regression line between temperature and CO2 data
over the last 850,000 years. A 0.89 correlation exists. The point encircled and shaded in
red is the present temperature/CO2 coordinates. It is located 9 standard deviations away
from the mean, consistent with a non-natural forcing.
Source
25
26. The Marine Isotopic Stage 11 (MIS 11)
MIS-11 is the interglacial period between 424,000 and 374,000 years ago.[1] Its
duration was considerably longer than that of other interglacials. It was 1.5–2.0
°C warmer than preindustrial at high latitudes [see PNAS article].
CO2 concentration was similar to that of the pre-industrial period, but
integrated over time CO2 forcing was larger (see previous slides).
Beach deposits in Alaska, Bermuda and the Bahamas, as well as uplifted reef
terraces in Indonesia, suggest that global sea level reached as much as 6 -20
m above the present.[5][6][7] [see also PNAS], consistent with the near absence
of Arctic continental ice sheets
26
27. The Eemian Interglacial
The Eemian interglacial is the last interglacial before the present interglacial
(Holocene) and dates from 130,000 to 115,000 years ago.
Global mean surface temperature was ∼1–2 °C warmer than preindustrial, although a
recent paper in Nature, 24 Jan 2013, using new Greenland ice cores, concludes it was
8 ± 4 °C warmer than the last thousand years.
CO2 concentration was similar to preindustrial (280 ppm) but over a longer time
(see previous slide).
There was a stronger solar forcing than during the Holocene, due to the high
orbital eccentricity in phase with a high precession index, resulting in large positive
solar radiative forcing during boreal summer in the Northern Hemisphere and austral
spring in the Southern Hemisphere.
Mean sea level was 5.5-9 m higher than present and Ice-sheets were smaller. The
thickness of the N.W. Greenland ice sheet decreased by 400 m (Nature, 24 Jan
2013)
27
28. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)
During the coldest part of the last Ice Age, about 22,000 years ago, the northern part of
the North America, Asia and Europe were covered with a giant ice sheet. Central
Greenland was 17-25 °C cooler and north-Atlantic sea surface temperature at mid-
latitude was 10 °C cooler (see more data in IPCC AR5 Table 5.2). Atmospheric CO2
was 190 ppm. Due to so much water being stored as ice at the poles, sea level was
about 120 m below the current level.
The Figure[Ref] gives an overview of the cooling in different locations. The circle size
represents the difference in temperature between the coldest glacial and the peak
interglacial temperature. Notice that the cooling is highest in the Arctic and Antarctic,
due to the ice-albedo cooling phenomenon (polar amplification).
28
29. Sudden warming events during the last Ice Age
Climate during the last glaciation period was
very chaotic. The so called Heinrich and
Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events,
occurred repeatedly throughout most of this
time (25 times). Each D-O event is
characterized by an abrupt warming of 4-6
°C to near-interglacial conditions that occurred
within decades, - a faster rise than during
present anthropogenic warming - and is
followed by a gradual cooling. However, in the
Antarctic warming was gradual.
Less frequent events were the Heinrich
events (lower panel) also with sudden
warmings followed by a gradual cooling. Even
though Heinrich and D-O events seem to have
been initiated in the North Atlantic, they had a
global footprint.
Atmospheric CO2 rose with ~20 ppm (from
~190-200 to ~200-220 ppm) several thousand
years before the onset of the D-O event[Ref].
Holocene
Data from NOAA.
These cycles ended at the onset of the
Holocene, which experienced a much
more stable climate.
29
30. Sudden cooling events during transition to the Holocene
The Younger Dryas episode is a period of rapid cooling that was named after a flower
Dryas octopetala that grows in the cold. It occurred after initial warming at the end of the
last Glacial Maximum about 14,500 years ago, in the Northern Hemisphere. It lasted
~1300 years. Temperature in different areas of the Northern Hemisphere fell to near-glacial
conditions within a decade or, according some proxies, in just a few years. The higher the
latitude, the greater was cooling (8 °C in Greenland; see next slide). It has been
hypothesized that massive amounts of ice sheet meltwater reduced the salinity and density
of the surface ocean in the North Atlantic, causing a slowdown in the ocean's thermohaline
circulation. This reduced the flow of warm water from the Tropics into the Atlantic ocean
resulting in cooling. Atmospheric CO2 was rising during the deglaciation but remained on a
plateau (240 ppm) during the cooling phase.[Ref]
The end of the Younger Dryas, ~11,500 years ago, was also particularly abrupt. In
Greenland, temperatures rose 10° C in a decade, which is a faster change than during
present anthropogenic warming. Data from NOAA and here
The 8.2 ka (kiloyear) cooling event High-resolution analyses of a Greenland ice core
indicate that temperature around 8200 years ago cooled ~3.3°C in Greenland within two
decades. The entire event lasted about 150 years and then temperatures returned to
previous values. Lake and ocean sediments show that European climate was also affected,
with temperatures dropping about 2°C. Global CO2 dropped with 25 ppm. [Ref] It is
thought that the event was caused by sudden collapse of an ice sheet dam south of the
Hudson Bay, that held huge amounts of melt water in a large lake. Fresh water release
30
31. into the Labrador sea may have resulted in a slowdown of the ocean thermohaline
circulation and hence cooling. Data from NOAA.
Temperature changes during the Younger Dryas. Circles denote the size of the
temperature change. Blue is cooling, red warming (Shakun and Carlson, 2010).
31
32. Climate change during the Holocene
The Holocene epoch started at the end of the last Ice Age is characterized by a relatively stable
climate, when looked at it at the global level, with global average temperature fluctuations of only +/-
0.5 °C. However, around 8,000-5,000 years ago there was a period of significant warming in the
Northern Hemisphere at high and polar altitudes (the Holocene climate optimum), but no
change at low and mid latitudes. Tropical reefs tended to show temperature increases of less than 1
°C, while the southern hemisphere was cooler. There is evidence that the world’s northernmost ice
cap melted away and was rebuilt when the climate got colder again [Ref] . The Holocene climatic
optimum is also seen in Antarctic ice cores.
The climate may have been particularly forced by increased solar irradiation (see Milankovitch
cycles), as the Earth’s axial tilt was 24° and the nearest approach to the Sun (perihelion) was during
boreal summer. The calculated forcing would have provided 8% more solar radiation (+40 W/m2)
to the Northern Hemisphere in the summer, tending to cause greater heating at that time.
Mid 20th century
average
temperature set at
zero. Source
Thousands of years ago
32
33. Sea level rose ~120 m compared to the glacial maximum of the last Ice Age. According
to IPCC AR5 WG1 the initial rate of sea level rise at the beginning of the Holocene
(13,000 -14,600 years ago) was at a very high rate - about 20 m in less than 500 years,[1]
perhaps just 200 years.[2] [3] The present sea level rise rate is more than 10 times
lower.
Importantly, sea level remained fairly constant during the last 3000 years but started to
rise from the beginning of the Industrial Era.
Two natural climate anomalies were seen during the last millennium: the Medieval
Climate Anomaly (MCA) or Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age (LIA). MCA
was a warm period (as warm as the late 20th century in some regions) in the North
Atlantic region lasting from about AD 950 to 1250.[8] LIA is a cold period, particularly in
Europe and North America, between 1550 and 1850.[7]
Years before present
From IPCC AR5 Figure 13.3
33
34. Arctic temperature over the last 2000 years
Temperature reconstruction based on lake sediments, ice and tree ring proxies (17
different records) show a cooling during the last 1800 years, with a steep warming
during the last 200 years. The millennial-scale cooling is –0.22° ± 0.06°C per 1000
years. The cooling correlates with the reduction (about 6 W/m2 at 65°N) in summer
solar irradiance, primarily driven by the orbital precession of the Earth and enhanced
by ice albedo.
Values are 10-year means standardized relative to
the reference period of 980 to 1800.
From Science, 325:1236-1239, 2009
Standardized
temperaturechange
34
35. Temperature in the Tropics
A coral-based reconstruction of sea surface temperatures (SST) over the last 250
years for the whole of the Tropics (30°N-30°S) was recently reported. It was
developed from 14 disparate coral records located in the Indian and Pacific oceans.
The Figure shows a small decreasing trend in SST between 1600 and1800, after
which there was a steady increase of 0.5 °C until present.
Source35
36. How did life on Earth react in response to climate
change?
Fossil data have shown that climate change can profoundly affect life on Earth. There
have been several mass extiction events in the past, that were associated with
dramatic changes in temperature and atmospheric and ocean CO2 and oxygen levels
or with the appearance of toxic gas in the atmosphere. However, there are examples
also that certain phyla prospered during the same period. For example during the
PETM mammals expanded rapidly.
On the basis of paleoclimatic data the end of the Acadian empire (Read more) and
of the Maya culture (Read more) are thought to be caused or facilitated by abrupt
climate change (prolonged drought). The Acadian empire in Mesopotamia flourished
for about 100 years until, at 4170 +/- 150 years before present, it suddenly collapsed.
The Maya culture collapsed around 800-900 AD with many cities being abandoned.
In an article in Science 27 April 2001: Vol. 292 no. 5517 pp. 667-673, entitled
“Cultural Responses to Climate Change During the Late Holocene”, 4 case
studies drawn from New and Old World civilizations documented societal responses to
prolonged drought, including population dislocations, urban abandonment, and
state collapse and concluded that further study of past cultural adaptations to
persistent climate change may provide valuable perspective on possible responses of
modern societies to future climate change.
36
![Past climate is the key to preview future climate
and helps to explain present climate change.
Understanding present climate change and projecting climate change and impacts
into the future can be greatly helped by knowledge of climate changes in the
past.
The next slides will show that most of the Earth’s geological history was
characterized by a warm climate, with average global surface temperatures 9-
12 °C warmer than now, and with atmospheric CO2 levels 3-5 times higher
than in the pre-industrial Era. The warm climate sometimes turned into major
glaciation periods (Ice Ages) that lasted 30-300 million years. At present we
live again in a glaciation period interupted by cycles of warming every 100,000
years. During glacial periods CO2 levels dropped significantly, as did sea level.
The major glaciations (blue areas) during the Earth's entire
existence.[Ref]
2](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)