Only some emerging technologies will become disruptive. Can we identify which ones? If so, how? We'll survey some current methods for: analyzing present conditions, examining trends on the horizon, spotting which might become disruptive, and preparing for the unexpected.
1. Planning for Disruption:
Governance, Strategy, and Management
in a Web 3.0 World
February 7, 2011
Jay Collier • jay.collier@thecompass.com
bit.ly/nercomp_disruption
B. S. Wise
2. “An act of delaying
or interrupting the continuity”
3. “A ‘disruptive innovation’ is an
innovation that transforms an existing
market or sector — or creates a new
one — by introducing simplicity,
convenience, accessibility, reliability,
and affordability”
4. SURVEY
Most disruptive of 20th century?
40
Air travel 8%
30 Electricity 39%
The Internet 38%
20
Nuclear weapons 4%
10
The Pill 3%
0
Untitled 1
5. SURVEY
Who is most responsible?
50
Agile incumbents 13%
37.5
Early adopters 34%
25
Investors 6%
12.5 Scrappy upstarts 47%
0
6. SURVEY
Which have been most disruptive?
Proprietary systems ! Open software and standards
Text interfaces ! Graphical Web browsers
Landlines ! Cell phones and network access
Wired modems ! Broadband and wireless networks
Real-time video viewing ! Digital video recorders
Centralized servers ! Peer-to-peer file sharing
Expensive mainframes ! Cheap portable storage
Content management ! Free blogging services
Video studios ! YouTube and camcorders
Local storage ! Cloud computing, accessed anywhere
18. INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONS
Business context
Mission Statement
Ford Motor Company:
Values Statement
We are a global family with a proud
Microsoft:
heritage passionately committed to
providing personal mobility for honesty,
Competitors/constituents
We value integrity,
people around the world.Amnesty International:
openness, personal excellence,
constructive self-criticism,
SWOT Statement
• UN Human Rights Commission
continual self-improvement, and
mutual respect. Strengths Weaknesses
• Médcins Sans Frontières
Expertise
Location
Marketing
Distribution
Innovative svc. Quality
• Human Rights Watch
Opportunities Threats
International Price war
Mergers Regulations
27. SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURES
Delphi forecasting method
ADOPTION WITHIN
ONE YEAR Mobile computing & open content
ADOPTION WITHIN
THREE YEARS Electronic books & simple augmented reality
ADOPTION WITHIN
FIVE YEARS Gesture-based computing & visual data analysis
28. SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURES
Scenario development
Communications technology scenarios 2015
Digital The Wide The Long Great World of Imbrication
Balkanization Open World Recession Points Nation
Course management
Libraries
E-books
Collaboration tools
Scholarly communication
Administrative computing
Computer hardware
Professional development
NITLE
39. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
8. Evaluate
s
Benefits (revenue, lead generation) - Costs (people, materials) = ROI
Bill McChesney, TopRankBlog
40. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
9. Repeat
Awareness Knowledge Selection Satisfaction Loyalty Advocacy
Robin Corps
41. Planning for Disruption:
Governance, Strategy, and Management
in a Web 3.0 World
bit.ly/nercomp_disruption
Jay Collier • jay.collier@thecompass.com
B. S. Wise