1. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The End of Control, the People formerly
known as Consumers... and the Future of
Broadcasting
Presentation at NPOX 2008
November 17 2008
by Gerd Leonhard
www.mediafuturist.com
3. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
How life changes with more bandwidth!
We often overestimate how quickly change will happen
We often underestimate the magnitude of the changes
when it does happen
4. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
12-18 months for some very very
drastic changes!
12. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Internet takes time away from all other Media
13. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
If the future
What to do?
audience migrates to
the Internet then you
must BECOME the
Internet for them!
14. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Who is the DJ?
Remember when you had a
Monopoly in
Attention?
15. Emerging cultural practices...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
So what are those practices?
• I want it when I want it [time-shifting]
• I want it how and where I want it
[place-shifting]
• I want to be able to influence, talk back,
determine [control-shifting]
• I want real value for my money - or else...
[money-shifting]
• I want real value for my attention - or else...
[attention-shifting]
25. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Instead of Control, Trust is the key to success in a Networked World
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/apr/21/netmusic
40. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Kevin Kelly @ kk.org: The key is to offer valuable intangibles:
1. Immediacy - priority access, immediate delivery
2. Personalization - tailored just for you... !MeCastquot;
3. Interpretation & Filtering - support and guidance
4. Authenticity - making sure itquot;s the real thing
5. Accessibility - wherever, whenever, however
6. Embodiment, Experience & Packaging
7. Community (i.e. the Tribes)
8. Findability & Curation
41. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes
Copy Based Revenues
Attention Based Revenues
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
Was 0
Is
Soon
Near Future
Mid-term Future
50. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Imagine a multi platform multi device Google Content Reader:
Broadcasters fill the
need for Trust, for
filtering Choice, for
Curation
52. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
EU Broadcasting in 3-5 years
• 100% digital and fully converged with the Internet
• All stations everywhere,anytime, any way we want
• Video and Audio converging
• Community features at the center
• Geography fades, borders become soft
• Radio license is first questioned and then
expanded (based on a Flat Rate for Digital Music)
• Advertising 2.0 emerges as major funding option
• Public Radio offers full archives on-demand
53. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Some trigger factors:
!Highspeed Wireless Internet everywhere
!WiBro in the car
!4G Wireless cell phone networks fully deployed
!Radios with WLAN chips
!Cell phones with DAB receivers (and WLAN)
!Mobile computing devices that talk effortlessly
to each other
!Web5.0 as easy as a TV remote control
!Everyone networked
54. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Digital Music Flat Rate is inevitable
~1910
+ =
+ =
~2009?
55. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The 6 Inevitables
1. Broadcasting must support time-shifting
2. Broadcasting must support space-shifting
3. Broadcasting must support sharing
4. Broadcasting must support interactivity
5. Broadcasting must support community
6. Broadband must return to be ‘social media’
57. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The dangers of an open,
shared and connected
ecosystem will always be less
than those of a closed &
controlled ecosystem
58. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Thanks for listening!
! Email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com
! Download this presentation at www.mediafuturist.com
! Lifestream at www.gerdstream.com
! Twitter.com: gleonhard
