Sussex Development Lecture, Natural Hazards, Unnatural Disasters, 17 February, Terry Cannon

1. Sussex Development Lecture 17 February 2011 Unnatural Disasters, Natural Hazards Terry Cannon Climate Change & Development Group These slides will make more sense in conjunction with the recording of the lecture available here: http://www.ids.ac.uk/go/news/natural-hazards-unnatural-disasters-understanding-disasters-in-the-context-of-development

3. Nature 1976

6. 1900 – 1999 Cause of death Estimates used in At Risk 2 nd edition Numbers Killed (millions) % Political violence 270.7 62.4 Slow-onset disaster 70.0 16.1 Epidemics 50.7 11.6 Road, rail, air & industrial incidents 32.0 7.6 Rapid-onset disaster 10.7 2.3 TOTAL 434.1 100

10. Blog on Haiti earthquake, 2010

11. Book on Hurricane Katrina disaster 2006, Routledge

12. There is no such thing as a sudden onset disaster – each one has been in preparation for many years already.. James Lewis

13. World Bank publication 2010 Input document for the 2011 Global Platform on Disaster Risk Reduction

14. British Medical Journal, 2 June 2001

15. Police now put up notices that say Traffic Incident

17. New York City version of Swedish Vision Zero “ Under Vision Zero, safety is prioritized over all other objectives of the transportation system, including mobility” Is this feasible in relation to natural hazards? USA road deaths 2004 48,500

20. Wenchuan earthquake 12 May 2008 Main shock 7.9 Richter many powerful aftershocks 88,000 dead and missing, of which 5,300 children (official figure…) 375,000 injured For pictures of the impact of the earthquake put this into Google: “ wenchuan earthquake pictures”. Photos cannot be reproduced here for copyright reasons.

21. In this photo combo released by China's Xinhua News Agency, Penghua Village in Mianzhu is shown on August 11, 2006, above, and then after this week's devastating quake on Friday, May 16, 2008, bottom. AP Photo/Xinhua, Chen Xie http://cryptome.cn/cn-quake6/cn-quake6.htm

22. Parents holding portraits of their dead children attend a memorial service at the destroyed Fuxing primary school in the earthquake-hit Wufu town of Mianzhu county, Sichuan province May 21, 2008. The Chinese government has announced 19,000 students were killed in the earthquake. http://www.welt.de/english-news/article2759080/Chinese-govt-19-000-students-died-in-earthquake.html

23. REUTERS Weeping parents hold portraits of their children during a May 27 memorial service at the ruins of Juyuan Middle School

24. Ai Weiwei was attacked by police in Sichuan (China) hotel during his show (top right, school children’s backpacks) about the earthquake. Photo shows him being treated later in Munich during his show (top left)

27. Hazard Flood Cyclone Earthquake Tsunami Volcanic eruption Drought Landslide Biological Vulnerability component Livelihood & its resilience Base-line status Well-being Self-protection Social Protection Governance E X P O S U R E “ Crunch” Pressure and Release (PAR) model D I S A S T E R

30. National & International Political Economy Power relations Demographics Conflicts & War Environmental Trends Debt Crises Etc Social Structures & Power Systems Class Gender Ethnicity Caste Other power relationships Hazard Flood Cyclone Earthquake Tsunami Volcanic eruption Drought Landslide Biological D I S A S T E R Vulnerability component Livelihood & its resilience Base-line status Well-being Self-protection Social Protection Governance S O C I A L F R A M E “ Crunch” Pressure and Release (PAR) model R O O T C A U S E S

35. National & International Political Economy Power relations Demographics Conflicts & War Environmental Trends Debt Crises Etc Social Structures & Power Systems Class Gender Ethnicity Caste Other power relationships Hazard Flood Cyclone Earthquake Tsunami Volcanic eruption Drought Landslide Biological D I S A S T E R Vulnerability component Livelihood & its resilience Base-line status Well-being Self-protection Social Protection Governance S O C I A L F R A M E “ Crunch” Pressure and Release (PAR) model R O O T C A U S E S Exposure Population increase: changes in the number of more or less vulnerable people Location of that increase

36. The PAR “crunch” model is a basic approach, with limitations discussed in the book. The main limits are dealt with through the much more complex “Access” model, dealt with in Chapter 3 of At Risk . The next slide is the basic diagram of the Access model.

37. “ Access” model – household political ecology

39. Regional distribution is uneven Environment provides: Risks Opportunities Hazards: floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, eruptions Production resources: land, water, minerals, energy Class - Gender - Ethnicity Unequal access to opportunities and unequal exposure to hazards Social systems and power relations Political and economic systems – national and international People do not separate these! They are often willing to live in unsafe places

41. Scale of choice of where to live and work Less choice More choice No choice but to live in dangerous places Choosing to live in dangerous places Essential livelihoods are often in dangerous places

44. Photo: La Paz, Bolivia Fabien Nathan In this and the next photos, Fabien Nathan has interviewed the inhabitants of many of the houses and found that people are choosing to live there. In the final photo, you can see that after a landslide, they are putting in reinforcements to save the house that now hangs over the slope...

45. Photo: La Paz, Bolivia Fabien Nathan

46. Photo: La Paz, Bolivia Fabien Nathan

47. Photo: La Paz, Bolivia Fabien Nathan

51. Situation report after the Indian Ocean tsunami (26 December 2004): “ Although devastating, the tsunami disaster is not likely to have a catastrophic impact on economies in the region. This is mainly because the areas affected, for the most part, were not industrial centers but poor fishing villages and small coastal towns, places of limited economic value.” This assessment by a risk analysis corporation leaves out the community...

53. Global Income Distribution, 2000 http://www.eoearth.org/article/Patterns_of_economic_growth_and_development

54. The spaces for development are constrained by much more powerful processes and actors... Hierarchies of influence… 2006 US$ millions GNP of USA 13,000,000 Banking and credit crises.. ?,000,000 Foreign Direct Investment 1,200,000 Official Development Assistance 104,421 US costs of wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, “on terror”, per annum (estimate) 80,000 EU Common Agricultural Policy farm subsidies 53,000 USA spending on pets 34,000 Oxfam International 640