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Understanding the Impact of Remittances on Consumption Patterns and Savings in Rural China   Yu Zhu (University of Kent, CEE) Zhongmin Wu (Nottingham Trent University) Liquan Peng, Laiyun Sheng (National Bureau of Statistics of China) Meiyan Wang, Yang Du, Fang Cai (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences) Institute of Development Studies, January 15 th  2009 Acknowledgement :  We are grateful to the British Academy for funding this research.
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
Preview ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
1. The Background ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent Year Urban Engel coeff Rural Engel coeff Urban-rural income ratio 1978 57.5 67.7 2.57 1980 56.9 61.8 2.34 1985 53.3 57.8 1.86 1990 54.2 58.8 2.20 1995 50.1 58.6 2.71 2000 39.4 49.1 2.79 2005 36.7 45.5 3.23
The Greatest Migration in Human History ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
2. Literature Review ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
New Economics of Labor Migration (NELM) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
Role of Social Networks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
Remittances ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
This Project ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
3. Data ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
NBS Data ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
CASS Data ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
Map 31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
4. Stylized Facts and Model Specifications ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
Migration Patterns in 2004 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Empirical Specification & Key Issues ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
Identification strategies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
5A. Empirical Results: Impact on Consumption ,[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
Sources of HH Net Income by Province and Year 31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
Balanced Panel  of  105 Counties 31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
FE-IV, 1st-stage Estimates ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
FE-IV, 2nd-stage Estimates   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
OLS, FE and IV Results 31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
Household-level Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
Couples with Dependent Children ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
TSLS, 1 st  Stage Estimates ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
TSLS, 2 nd  Stage Estimates ,[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
OLS Bias ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
Repeat Migrants Only, TSLS, 2 nd  Stage ,[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
New Migrants Only, TSLS, 2 nd  Stage ,[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
Sensitivity Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
5B. Empirical Results: Impact on Savings   ,[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
Savings and Net HH Income ,[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
Level of Highest Qualifications by HH type ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
Allocation of Labour ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
Intra-household Time Allocation ,[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
Average Gross Hourly Return to Labour  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent HH Type Farming & Self-employment Non-migrant Local Labour Migrant Labour Non-migrant 7.50 5.25 - Migrant 10.71 2.34 3.92
OLS Results 31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
FE-IV, 1st-stage Estimates ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
FE-IV, 2nd-stage estimates   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
Tobit two-stage Estimation, 1 st  Stage ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
Tobit two-stage Estimation, 2nd Stage ,[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
Quantile Regression ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
Remittances on Capital Input in Farming ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent Dependent variable: Capital Input of Farm Production OLS 2SLS Remittances 0.008   (0.016) 0.012   (0.151) # migrants -157 (108) -2117  (933) Household size 389  (71.2) 893  (174) Log per capita land 2006  (103) 1838  (138) Anhui Province  -983  (175) -642  (262) Constant 905 (1486) -6644 (2883)
Remittances on Gross Farm Product ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent Dependent variable: Gross Farm Product OLS 2SLS Remittances 0.006   (0.029) 0.107   (0.255) # migrants - 346  (195) -3230  (1574) Household size 624  (129) 1237  (294) Log per capita land 3712  (188) 3572  (232) Anhui Province  -276 (319) 225 (442) Constant -436 (2701) -10006 ( 4864)
Simple Calibration ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
6a. Conclusions: Consumption ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
6b. Conclusions: Savings ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
Further Research ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent

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Understanding the Impact of Remittances on Consumption Patterns and Savings in Rural China

  • 1. Understanding the Impact of Remittances on Consumption Patterns and Savings in Rural China Yu Zhu (University of Kent, CEE) Zhongmin Wu (Nottingham Trent University) Liquan Peng, Laiyun Sheng (National Bureau of Statistics of China) Meiyan Wang, Yang Du, Fang Cai (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences) Institute of Development Studies, January 15 th 2009 Acknowledgement : We are grateful to the British Academy for funding this research.
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  • 20. Sources of HH Net Income by Province and Year 31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
  • 21. Balanced Panel of 105 Counties 31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
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  • 24. OLS, FE and IV Results 31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
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  • 39. OLS Results 31/07/09 Yu Zhu - University of Kent
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Notes de l'éditeur

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