Applied Sustainability on Kauai - ASOK 1

KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i

SUSTAINABILITY WAS BORN
IN 1987

• BRUNDTLAND COMMISSION
(3 spheres)

• TRIPLE BOTTOM LINE
(John Elkington)

The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net


WHAT A DIFFERENCE TWO DECADES MAKES!

1989

2011



SUSTAINABILITY...BY THE NUMBERS

One vision
emergent property

Two paths
mitigate & adapt

Three spheres
economy/community/ecology

Four conditions
natural steps

Five themes
consensus mission

Six challenges
footprint reduction

Seven generations
self - reinforcing systems


ONE VISION
Preferred Definition

“Sustainability is the possibility
that human and other life
will flourish on the planet forever.”

“It is an emergent property
which only appears when the whole system
is functioning properly.”

“ U n - s u s t a i n a b i l i t y is an unintended consequence
of our ‘ s y s t e m b l i n d n e s s ’ .
• We fail to understand the systems at play in the world.
• We rely on technological quick fixes that ignore underlying
causes.”

John R. Ehrenfeld
author of “sustainability by design”
interviewed in MIT Sloan review, july 14, 2009
Executive Director of the International Society for Industrial Ecology;
former Director of the MIT Program on Technology, Business, and Environment.



FOUR CONDITIONS
From The Natural StepTM

In a sustainable society,
nature is not subject to systematically increasing:

1: Concentrations of substances extracted from the earth's crust.
2: Concentrations of substances produced by society.
3: Degradation by physical means.
AND...
people are not subject to conditions that systematically:
4: Undermine their capacity to meet their needs.

These four basic principles for sustainability
are deeply rooted in science
and in systems thinking.

And it also follows that these four basic principles
are something that everyone can agree about.



TWO PATHS



FIVE THEMES



SEVEN GENERATIONS
Self-Reinforcing Systems

Cycles turning within cycles…the secret of sustainability


THREE SPHERES

SUSTAINABILITY THINKING


SIX CHALLENGES
America’s Ecological Footprint

Share of total U.S. Ecological Footprint by category, derived from Cool Climate Calculator.


OTHER
CONSIDERATIONS...



FOUR POSSIBILITIES
EARLY ACTION ON GLOBAL WARMING?
(Illustrating the Precautionary Principle)

ACT NOW?

VERDICT?

The precautionary principle, crudely summarized, states that where the potential impact is significant and we have
insufficient confidence to choose between two future scenarios, prudence demands that we plan for the more pessimistic.
Source: Greg Craven, "What's the Worst That Could Happen? A Rational Response to the Climate Change Debate", gregcraven.com


FOUR DIMENSIONS
INTEGRAL FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABILITY

Adapted from The Four Worlds of Sustainability, by Barrett Brown



SO...

HOW UNSUSTAINABLE
ARE WE?



THE “HOCKEY STICKS”
ON EXPONENTIALITY & TIPPING POINTS



WHAT HAPPENED TO EROI?
Energy-Return-On-Investment

Source: Crash Course, www.chrismartenson.com



PEAK OIL?

70%
DECLINE

US oil supply is likely to begin its terminal decline sometime between 2011 and 2020, from a peak of
7.5 to 7.7 billion barrels annually, at an average annual rate of between 2% and 3%. By 2030. Our
available supply of oil will probably range between 4.2 and 6.3 billion barrels.
Source: The Oil Drum, “On American Sustainability - Anatomy of Societal Collapse


US EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS?



Emissions REDUCTIONS Quickly?
Scenarios from the climate interactive model
climateinteractive.org

Business-As-Usual Modest Decrease 95% Reduction

2 degree threshhold * *

* Only 10-year delay Must do in 10 years



Source: Post-Carbon Institute, Daniel Lerch presentation, 8 May 2009 • Gaining Ground Summit, Calgary


CLASS WARFARE?

"The money derived from productivity improvements over the last decades was shunted to capital markets under
the ideological assumption (seen in Greenspan's thinking) that these markets would make better investments in
future prosperity than individuals. That assumption has been proven false. The money was gambled away.”

John Robb in Global Guerillas blog on "Parasitic Predation" Mar 09

Chart Source: Damon Silvers, "How a Low Wage Economy with Weak Labor Laws Brought Us the Mortgage
Credit Crisis", Feller Memorial Labor Law Lecture, April 2, 2008, UC Berkeley



IMPENDING CRISES?

Brent
Crude
Oil
Spot
$/barrel



CASCADING CATASTROPHES?



FINAL THOUGHTS...



TOWARD SUSTAINABILITY



Dominant model Sustainable model
infinite competitive growth life cycle of the organism

MAXIMUM ENTROPY ZERO ENTROPY

bigger fish swallowing the smaller self-similar fractal structure
laying waste to everything in its path cycles turning within cycles

like a hurricane the secret of sustainability

no closed cycle to hold resources within dynamically closed cycle
or to build up stable organized structures enables stable organized structures
to build up and in a balanced way

from “Dream Farm” by physicist Mae-Wan Ho


THE SUSTAINABILITY IMPERATIVE

“In designing pathways for the future, we need to make them:

• AT SCALE
Interesting new tech may be hard to bring to scale

• IN TIME
Things that are very far out, will be helpful far out, but right now we need some good things

• FOR ALL
Between the rich and poor, an equilibrium, particularly in terms of the environment

David Hunter Marks
David Hunter Marks
MIT Professor
Coordinator of the Alliance for Global Sustainability (AGS)
At the Annual AGS Conference, Feb ‘08



SUSTAINABILITY IS NOT WHAT WE THINK,
IT’S HOW


Applied Sustainability on Kauai - ASOK 1

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