The Story of Distance Education: The Future Is Not What It Used To Be

Professor Mark Brown
Director, National Institute for Digital Learning
Beijing, China
Wednesday 8th June 2016
The Story of Distance Education:
The Future Is Not What It Used To Be

National Institute for Digital Learning
• DCU Connected
• Teaching Enhancement
• Digital Learning Research

Outline…
1. Failed predictions
2. Troublesome tensions
3. Education for a better future
The Story of Distance Education:
The Future Is Not What It Used To Be

Key question…
“If new models of distance
education (including the use
of learning analytics) provide
a dream solution for higher
education, then what is the
problem?”

The Rhetoric Reality Gap
Key message…

This presentation
is NOT limited to a
focus on just learning analytics
Key warning…

What technology is
likely to have the greatest
impact on higher education by 2027?
1. Failed predictions…

“The student who has prepared a certain number of
lessons in the correspondence school knows
more of the subject treated in those lessons, and
knows it better, than the student who has covered the
same ground in the classroom.” Soon, he predicted,
“the work done by correspondence will be greater
in amount than that done in the classrooms of our
academies and colleges.”
Yale Professor William Rainey Harper - 1885

“With the coming of the New Media, the need for
print on paper will rapidly diminish. The day will
soon arrive when the world’s literature will be
available from The Automatic Library at the
mere pressing of a button”
(Uzanne, 1994).

“With the coming of the New Media, the need for
print on paper will rapidly diminish. The day will
soon arrive when the world’s literature will be
available from The Automatic Library at the
mere pressing of a button”
(Uzanne, 1894).

“Books will soon be obsolete in public schools.
Scholars will be instructed through the eye. It is
possible to teach every branch of human
knowledge with the motion picture”.
(Thomas Edison, 1912)

“I believe that the motion picture is destined to
revolutionize our educational system and that
in a few years it will supplant largely, if not
entirely, the use of textbooks,”
(Thomas Edison, 1922)

“The central and dominant aim of education by
radio is to bring the world to the classroom, to
make universally available the services of the finest
teachers, the inspiration of the greatest leaders...
and unfolding world events which through the radio
may come as a vibrant and challenging textbook
of the air.”
Benjamin Darrow 1932
Director of Ohio School of the Air

“We will undoubtedly have lectures of every
conceivable kind presented to us right in our
homes, when practical television arrives,
possibly a year or two off.”
Short Wave Craft, 1935

“It happens every
day! Many so
c a l l e d ‘ s l o w
students’ learn
to type and then
show up on the
honor roll.”
https://larrycuban.wordpress.com

“Modern educators and psychologists have found,
through thousands of tests in the nations schools,
that “typewriter” children do better work… get from
10% to 30% higher grades...”
https://twitter.com/audreywatters/status/719231612865544192

“Your teaching efforts are more effective. Pupils
comprehend faster with the brighter, more
detailed image.”
https://larrycuban.wordpress.com

Project Plato – 1960s

Cuban, L. (1986). Teachers and machines: The classroom use of technology
since 1920. New York: Teachers’ College Press.
Technology
Expectation Cycle
(1986)
High Expectations
Subsided Enthusiasm
Growing
Support

Gartner Hype Cycle
“Technology-enhanced learning involves an
ongoing cycle of hype, hope and
disappointment” (Gouseti, 2010).
MOOCs
(THE, 2014)

Gartner Hype Cycle
“Technology-enhanced learning involves an
ongoing cycle of hype, hope and
disappointment” (Gouseti, 2010).
MOOCs
2016

“Resilience requires
adaptation and evolution to new
environmental conditions, but retains core identity”
(Weller & Anderson, 2013, p.55).

“In 50 years… there will
be only 10 institutions in
the world delivering
higher education and
Udacity has a shot at
being one of them”
(cited in Leckart, 2013, P.28)
In a March 2012 Wired cover story, Sebastian
Thrun predicted:

“According to the hype cycle model, MOOCs
should now be exiting the ‘trough of
disillusionment’ and entering a period of
‘enlightenment’ as second-generation products
and services come onto the market (Linacre,
2014, P.4)
United States

Allen, E., & Seaman, J., with Poulin, R., & Taylor Straut, T. (2016). Online report card: Tracking online
education in the United States. Babson Survey Research Group and Quahog Research Group.
59%
11%

Students’ experiences
with MOOCs
https://library.educause.edu/resources/2015/8/2015-student-and-faculty-technology-research-studies

“Big data, powerful analytical tools, and
sophisticated data mining techniques is poised to
spark a revolution in how education is delivered
and in how the efficacy of that education is
measured”
(ECAR Working Report, 2015, p. 1).
http://net.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/ewg1510.pdf

http://www.aupress.ca/index.php/books/120258

“We tend to overestimate the effect of a
technology in the short run and
underestimate the effect in the long
run.”
Amara’s Law

“A prudent question is one-half of wisdom”
Francis Bacon
http://www.slideshare.net/mbrownz
Questions…

What will be the greatest
change to higher education by 2027?
2. Troublesome tensions…

Tension 1
The international demand for higher
education is growing exponentially
but relatively few universities around
the world are exploring the potential
of new models of online distance
learning for full degrees.

Education at a Glance…

Allen, E., & Seaman, J., with Poulin, R., & Taylor Straut, T. (2016). Online report card: Tracking online
education in the United States. Babson Survey Research Group and Quahog Research Group.
2%

Horrigan, J. (2016). Lifelong learning and technology. Pew Research Center. Available from http://
www.pewinternet.org/2016/03/22/lifelong-learning-and-technology/

(Heinlein, 2015)
71% outside

http://asemlllhub.org/fileadmin/www.asem.au.dk/publications/MOOCs_and_Educational_Challenges_around_Asia_and_Europe_FINAL.pdf
Editor
Kim Bowen - 2015

Wang Ying, 2015

Jansen, D., & Schuwer, R. (2015). Ins$tu$onal MOOC
strategies in Europe Status report based on a mapping survey
conducted in October - December 2014. EADTU – HOME
project.
EU
EU
MOOC Drivers

“It will not be possible to satisfy the rising
demand for Higher Education, especially
in developing countries, by relying on
traditional approaches.”
(Sir John Daniel, 2013)
Past President,
Commonwealth of Learning;
Previous Vice-Chancellor,
UK Open University

Blended, Online and Distance
(BOLD) education is booming but
the level of concern is increasing
throughout the world.
Tension 2

http://www.studyportals.com

2015 - 35 million learners
2014 - 18 million learners
http://www.onlinecoursereport.com/state-of-the-mooc-2016-a-year-of-massive-landscape-change-for-massive-open-online-courses/

Worldwide

Worldwide
75%
English
Language

Allan, I., & Seaman, J. (2015). Grade level: Tackling online education in the United States. Babson Survey
Research Group and Quahog Research Group, LLC.

UK Open University
Woodley, A., & Simpson, O. (2014). Student dropout: The elephant in the room (pp. 459-483). In O. Zawacki-Richter &
T. Anderson (Eds.). Online distance education: Towards a research agenda. Athabasca: AU Press.

http://www.icde.org

http://student.success.ie

While the benefits of higher
education have been quantified we
know very little about the societal
and economic returns on investment
for the subset of off-campus online
distance learners.
Tension 3

Ireland
NZ
Education at a Glance…
United States

Stiles, J., Hout, M., & Brady, H. (2012). California’s economic payoff: Investing in college and completion. Available from
https://alumni.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/Californias_Economic_Payoff_Executive_Summary.pdf

“There is also almost no understanding of
the private and social [public] benefits of
distance and online education in comparison
with those of face-to-face education” (Rumble,
2014, p.208).
Rumble, G. (2014). The costs and economics of online distance education (pp. 197-216). In O. Zawacki-Richter
& T. Anderson (Eds.). Online distance education: Towards a research agenda. Athabasca: AU Press.

In New Zealand…

6. “National funding frameworks should create
incentives… for higher education
institutions to open up education, to
develop more flexible modes of delivery
and to diversify their student population.”
Recommendations

Callender, C. (2015). Putting part-time students at the heart of the system? In N. Hillman (ed.). It’s the finance, stupid: The decline
of part-time higher education and what to do about it. Oxford: UK: Higher Education Policy Institute. Available from http://
www.hepi.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/part-time_web.pdf

2.7%
Higher Education Authority. (2014). Higher education system performance. First report 2014-2016. Available from http://
www.hea.ie/sites/default/files/final_volume_i_system_report_with_cover_letter_.pdf

3. Education for a better future…

What are some of
the major change forces
shaping the future of higher education?

What are some of
the major change forces
shaping the future of higher education?
• Globalization
• Population Mobility
• Demographic Changes
• Changing Nature of Work
• The Cost of Higher Education

“Despite huge advancements in
technology over the last 50 years, the
wealth gap between developed and
developing countries has more than
doubled” (John Pilger, 2002).

World Bank Group. (2016). Digital dividends: World development report. Washington: A World Bank Group
Flagship Report.

Global Attitudes Project, Pew Research, 2011
http://www.pewglobal.org/2011/11/17/the-american-western-european-values-gap/
The American-Western European Values Gap

Jansen, D., & Schuwer, R. (2015). Ins$tu$onal MOOC strategies in Europe Status report based on a mapping survey conducted
in October - December 2014. EADTU – HOME project. Available from hJp://eadtu.eu/documents/PublicaOons/OEenM/
InsOtuOonal_MOOC_strategies_in_Europe.pdf

What type of
education system do
we want the use of new
digital technology
to serve?
Framing question…

The current emphasis on education in change
needs to shift to the language
of education for change.

http://www.portlandpresspublishing.com/content/wenner-gren-international-series-volume-88

Conclusion
In summary…
• State of the actual
• More questions than answers
• Importance of clear moral compass

Conclusion
“If new models of distance
education (including the use
of learning analytics) provide
a dream solution for higher
education, then what is the
problem?”

Access
Quality
Cost
Iron
Triangle
Conclusion

“Learning
analytics
should be in
the service of
big ideas,
not as a big idea
in itself” (adapted from Barnett, 2011).
Conclusion

Professor Mark Brown
Director, National Institute for Digital Learning
www.dcu.ie/nidlmark.brown@dcu.ie
@mbrownz www.slideshare.net/mbrownz

The Story of Distance Education: The Future Is Not What It Used To Be

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