political competence

1. Mark Peffley
PS 473 Public Opinion

2. (When the public agrees with us)

3. (When the public doesn’t agree with us)

4. Political scientists who found democratic citizens wanting and revised democratic
theory to be consistent with their survey evidence
A. (Paul Lazarsfeld, et al., The People's Choice (1944)
B. Bernard Berelson, et al., Voting (1944)
C. Angus Campbell, et al, The AmericanVoter (1960)
D. Delli Carpini and Keeter, What Americans Know about Politics andWhy It
Matters (1997)

5. A non-trivial portion of the public is…
A. Politically intolerant (covered)
B. Politically uninformed, misinformed, low knowledge
C. Pliable: Lacking opinions, commitment, and stability
D. Ideologically innocent: Lack of ideological thinking, organization and
consistency
E. Irrational in making political decisions (e.g., very little issue voting)
F. 200 years of mass education & participation hasn’t sufficiently
“enlightened” the public

6. 1. Rational ignorance (Anthony Downs)
a. Incentives
b. Elite information
2. Cue-taking & Heuristic reasoning (Paul Sniderman)
3. Issue publics (PhilipConverse, Jon Krosnick)
4. The Magic of aggregation (Page & Shapiro)
5. Theory of the survey response (Zaller & Feldman)
a. QuestionWording & Framing Effects
6. Public Preferences & Government Responsiveness (Gilens)
7. Summing Up

7. Delli Carpini and Keeter

8.  U.S. Defense Secretary
 Hedge fund CEO convicted of Ponzi scheme
 Chief Justice of U.S. Supreme Court
 2006 winner of American Idol

9.  Surveys demonstrate public ignorance
 In 1986, a majority of Americans didn’t know the
name of the Soviet leader (Mikhail Gorbachev)
 2007 Dunce-Cap Nation (Newsweek):
 MoreAmericans are able to name Jordin
Sparks as the winner of the most recent season
of American Idol (18 percent) than can identify
John Roberts as the Supreme Court's chief
justice (11 percent).
 “Even today, more than four years into the war
in Iraq, as many as four in 10 Americans (41
percent) still believe Saddam Hussein's
regime was directly involved in financing,
planning or carrying out the terrorist attacks on
9/11, even though no evidence has surfaced to
support a connection.
 Urban Legends: Obama…
 2010: 20% think President Obama is a
Muslim

10. NEWT GINGRICH: You're asking us
to trust turning power over to the
government when there clearly
are people in America who
believe in establishing euthanasia
including selective standards.
REP. PAUL BROUN: This program
of government option that's
being touted as being this
panacea, the savior of allowing
people to have quality health
care at an affordable price, is
going to kill people.

11. By taking their unvaccinated children to the
happiest place on Earth and touching off a
measles outbreak at Disneyland, the anti-
vaxxers put hundreds of other children in
jeopardy, too.
About a decade ago, people started to
assert a link between immunization and
autism, fueled by the studies of a now-
disgraced British doctor, Andrew
Wakefield. Problem was, study after study
refuted Wakefield’s autism research. And in
2011, the British medical establishment
withdrewits endorsement of Wakefield’s
study and labeled his data bogus.
Jenny Craig

12. If you got at least a C in American Government, you’re a political genius!

16. What Americans Know: 1989-2007
PUBLIC KNOWLEDGE OF CURRENT AFFAIRS LITTLE CHANGED BY
NEWS AND INFORMATION REVOLUTIONS

17.  I want a different curve!
 A = 90% (21/23) correct, < 10% of public
 F < 60% (14/23) correct , 50% of public

18. Does the format of the political quiz exaggerate lack
of information?
Recall (worse) vs.
recognition (better)

19. Who knows more?
(Note: “high” knowledge = 15/23 correct)
College grads, men, older
• College grads
• Men
• “Boomers”

20. Are unstable attitudes “non-attitudes”?

21. • About 20% switch
sides of the issue
after just 3 months.
• Is this evidence of
“nonattitudes?”

22. I. Democratic Elitists’ arguments and evidence. Public opinion:
A. Politically intolerant
B. Often politically uninformed, misinformed
C. Pliable: Lacking opinions, commitment, and stability
D. Ideologically innocent: Lack of ideological thinking, organization and consistency
E. Irrational decision-making (very little issue voting, low participation)
F. 200 years of education & participation hasn’t sufficiently “enlightened” public
II. Rejoinder from Classical Representative theorists
A. Rational ignorance, abstention (Anthony Downs)
B. Heuristic reasoning (Paul Sniderman)
C. Theory of the survey response (Zaller & Feldman)
D. Caveat: consequences of political ignorance (DelliCarpini and Keeter)

23. Rational choice theory as a defender of low political information (Downs)

24.  Rational ignorance, abstention &
information, decision costs
 “Rational,” self-interested
candidates & media often make it
hard for voters to behave rationally
 Issue voting & information costs
▪ Misleading or false information about
opponents’ policies and character
▪ Ambiguous issues stands
▪ Similar issue stands
▪ Trivial issues vs. real issues

25.  Benjamin Page,Choices and Echoes in Presidential Elections (1978):
 Indeed, the most striking feature of candidates’ rhetoric about policy is its
extreme vagueness.The typical campaign speech says virtually nothing
specific about policy alternatives; discussions of the issues are hidden away in
little-publicized statements and position papers. Even the most extended
discussions leave many questions unanswered. In short, policy stands are
infrequent, inconspicuous, and unspecific.
 Wall Street Journal (9/3/10):
 House Republicans are hunting for an election-season middle ground on
which they can make promises to voters without providing enough details to
be attacked by Democrats…
 …Many Republicans argue that there is nothing to be gained politically by
being so detailed, particularly at a time when Republicans are already
expected to make large gains in the November elections.A pair of recent
speeches by House Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio were heavy on
critiques of President Barack Obama and light on details of what he would do
as House Speaker.

26. I. Democratic Elitists’ arguments and evidence.
Public opinion:
A. Often politically uninformed
B. Pliable: Lacking opinions, commitment, and stability
C. Lack of ideological thinking, organization and consistency
D. Irrational decision-making (very little issue voting)
E. Politically intolerant
F. 200 years of education & participation hasn’t sufficiently
“enlightened” public
II. Rejoinder from Classical Representative
theorists
A. Rational ignorance (Anthony Downs)
B. Heuristic reasoning (Paul Sniderman)
C. Theory of the survey response (Zaller & Feldman)
D. Caveat: consequences of political ignorance (Delli Carpini and
Keeter)

27. Rejoinder 2:
Heuristics as Cognitive Short Cuts for Making
Efficient Political Choices

28. 2000 Butterfly Ballot in Florida
Sample Ballot inTulsa, OK
Voting is easy?

29.  Idealized consumer choice: toilet paper) example

32. Heuristics:
Partisan bias in perceptions of the economy

33.  Need to have some information in order to
use heuristics (e.g., party differences)
 Heuristics lead to efficient, but not
necessarily accurate, judgments. Ex’s:
 Stereotypes are overgeneralizations
 Opinion leaders have their own motivations and
biases & don’t always tell the truth
 Strong partisans and ideologues often “see”
what they want to see.

34.  Condorcet’s theorem:

35. Yes, individual responses may appear unstable, but there is a central tendency of
individual opinion that is more stable. Hypothetically, over a period of time, each
individual has a central tendency of opinion, which might be called a "true" or long-
term preference that can be determined by averaging the opinions expressed by the
same individual at several points in time.

36. Collective rationality:
Yes, the opinions of individual may be irrational, but when they are
aggregated the random errors cancel out.