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Working with
2 Working with wicked problems




Working with wicked problems              Acknowledgements
A publication by                          In 2011 the King Baudouin Foundation organised a training seminar to familiarize invited
the King Baudouin Foundation,             staff members of European foundations with new developments in tackling so-called
rue Brederodestraat 21, 1000 Brussels     ‘messy’, ‘intractable’ or ‘wicked’ problems, such as the obesity epidemic, poverty, and many
                                          environmental challenges. Typically these are issues that resist easy classification. They are
Author                                    ambiguous and hard to pin down because they seem to consist of many partial, but interrelated
Philippe Vandenbroeck, shiftN             challenges. Costs and benefits of tackling the problem are hard to determine. But intervention is
                                          needed to avoid the problem spinning even more out of control.
Coordination King Baudouin Foundation
                                          The seminar brought together a number of thought leaders who illuminated a palette of
Luc Tayart de Borms
                                          approaches to deal with complexity. To facilitate knowledge sharing among all interested
Gerrit Rauws
                                          parties, KBF requested Philippe Vandenbroeck, coordinator of the seminar,
Tinne Vandensande
                                          to develop an accessible and attractive report bringing together important learnings and
                                          take-away messages on working with wicked problems.
Layout
Kaligram                                  The author gratefully acknowledges the stimulus received from colleagues and friends:
                                          Kim Becher, Janis Birkeland, Marshall Clemens, Rachel Dechenne, Michiel Dehaene,
Drawings on pages 25, 28, 29, 31, 34,     Jo Goossens, Kalle Halding, Barbara Heinzen, Luc Hoebeke, Masahiro Kakuwa, Jos Mertens,
and 37: F. Point – © Kaligram 2012        Richard Normann (†), Kris Ooms, Henrietta Palmer, Herman Van Campenhout,
                                          Wim Van den Hende, Paola Vigano’, Elli Verhulst, Angela Wilkinson, and Alain Wouters.
This publication can be downloaded free
of charge from www.kbs-frb.be

Legal deposit: D/2893/2012/28

ISBN-13: 978-90-5130-797-9

EAN: 9789051307979
                                          Every year the King Baudouin Foundation supports around 1,500 projects and citizens
                                          committed to building a better society. We organise debates on important social issues,
November 2012
                                          share knowledge and research results via (free) publications and encourage philanthropy.
                                          We aim to make a lasting contribution to justice, democracy and respect for diversity.

                                          The King Baudouin Foundation is independent and pluralistic. We operate out of Brussels,
                                          but are active at regional, Belgian, European and international level.
                                          The Foundation was created in 1976, to mark the 25th anniversary of King Baudouin’s reign.

                                          The King Baudouin Foundation thanks the National Lottery and all other donors for their
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Working with wicked problems 3




contents
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  5


1 guiding idea: wicked problems  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .                                                   7
What are wicked problems anyway? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  9
Why is it important to recognize wicked problems?  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
What are the risks related to thinking in terms of wicked problems? . . . . . . .  12


3 ways of dealing with complexity .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .                                                            13
Ideas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Dialogue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  18
All together now . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  19
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  20


5 ways of knowing and engaging  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .                                                           21
A/ Soft Systems Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  23
B/ Transition Management  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  27
C/ Future Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  30
D/ Design Thinking  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  33
E/ Appreciative Inquiry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  36


7 rules of thumb  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 39
1 - Mix flexibility and rigour  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
2 - Pursue goal-oriented incrementalism  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  41
3 - Think abundance, not scarcity  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
4 - Develop a view of the whole  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  43
5 - Reframe wicked problems into wicked opportunities  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
6 – Create space for self-organisation  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  45
7 - Have patience with power, but drive it hard  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Working with wicked problems 5




Introduction
This is a story about dealing smartly with complexity. But it’s also a story about acknowl-
edging the limits of smartness.

We deal with friction in our personal and professional environment all the time. Problems
can be persistent features of the way we interact with our environment, or they can
emerge unexpectedly. Often we rely on patience and routine to get the friction out of the
way. In times of crisis we easily resort to improvisation or strict command-and-control.

Smartness starts with taking a step back and acknowledging that a problem is not some
objective given that determines a particular response. Rather than a clearly identifiable
feature of our environment a problem emerges from the way we understand and interact
with that environment. Management theorist Keith Grint sees the ability ‘to consider not
what is the situation, but how it is situated’ as an essential quality of people in leadership
positions.

Arguably there is a lot to be gained by framing friction as ‘simplicity’. Edward De Bono is
probably right when he argues that trying to make things simple is good for us. Ideally,
he would like to see a National Simplicity Campaign in every country. Recently, Dr. Atul
Gawande has written an eloquent ‘checklist manifesto’: a plea to rely on straightforward
tools for structuring and coordinating tasks in stressful and volatile situations.

Without denying the usefulness of these strategies in this booklet we will take the op-
posite approach. We will assume that we are dealing with a reality that is particularly
slippery and resists responses fixed as clear schemata. To that end we will connect to a
way of understanding friction that has emerged over the last four decades. It is from the
1970s onward that people started to talk about ‘wicked’, ‘messy’ or ‘intractable’ problems.
Behind that novel and slightly provocative language was a recognition that ‘problems’
can often not be seen in isolation. Increasingly also decision makers were ready to accept
that science does not always have the answers and that other stakeholders (with other
worldviews) have a role to play in crafting ways forward to deal with policy challenges.
6 Working with wicked problems




So, what are ways forward if we have the courage to accept complexity and conflict? Here
we will argue that there are basically three approaches, or rather three rich traditions,
that may inspire us in working with wicked problems. We will refer to these traditions as
‘Ideas’, ‘Dialogue’ and ‘Design’. They connect to the power of thinking interdependences,
of investing in social relationships and of visualising new worlds.

Luckily problem solvers of all sorts have, during the last few decades, created a range of
sophisticated methodologies that bring together the strengths of these three approach-
es in different ways. Here we will discuss five: Soft Systems Methodology, Transition
Management, Future Scenarios, Design Thinking, and Appreciative Enquiry. The list is by
no means meant to be exhaustive. Each of these ways of knowing and engaging has a
distinctive scope and spirit. But all of them have been developed to find pragmatic ways
forward in dealing with knotty, confusing and contested problematic situations.

In a final section we will take a step back and try to understand what these five ap-
proaches teach us about working with wicked problems. These lessons have been for-
mulated as seven rules of thumb. They are stimulating and sobering at the same time.
The good news is that, yes, we can acknowledge messiness and yet rely on powerful and
smart levers to improve our predicament. But diehard ‘optimisers’ and ‘heroic leaders’
will be perturbed by the message that where smartness stops persistence and humility
take over. Final solutions do not exist, should not exist. Working with wicked problems
inevitably means grappling with paradoxes and tensions. ■
Working with wicked problems / 1 guiding idea: wicked problems 7




   1 guiding idea:
wicked problems
Working with wicked problems / 1 guiding idea: wicked problems 9


Summary
Acknowledging the existence of wicked problems means admitting to face societal chal-

lenges for which no definitive answer exists. Wicked problems are structurally complex so

that it is hard to say where a given problem stops and another one begins. And stakeholders

will frame these challenges in different ways so that a one-size-fits-all solution is highly

unlikely. Thinking in terms of wicked problems opens up a novel repertoire of strategies to

come to grips with these issues. However, we should guard against getting carried away

by our ability to recognise and deal with complexity and conflict. Even in this complicated

world ‘simple’ solutions remain possible.




What are wicked problems anyway?
When talking about the many societal               They wrote:                                        Key characteristics of wicked problems
challenges we are currently facing, peo-
                                                   “They are ‘wicked’ problems, whereas sci-          >> There is no definitive formulation of
ple increasingly describe them as ‘wicked
                                                   ence has developed to deal with ‘tame’ prob-          a wicked problem. The framing of a
problems’. The notion has an obvious neg-
                                                   lems. Policy problems cannot be definitively          wicked problem can always be con-
ative resonance. Someone who is wicked
                                                   described. Moreover, in a pluralistic society         tested.
is not to be trusted. We can’t really be sure
                                                   there is nothing like the undisputable public
about the intentions of a wicked person.                                                              >> Solutions to wicked problems are
                                                   good; there is no objective definition of eq-
So how can a problem be ‘wicked’?                                                                        not true-or-false, but better or worse
                                                   uity; policies that respond to social problems
                                                                                                         from a given point of view.
It was in the 1970s that people started to         cannot be meaningfully correct or false; and
talk about ‘wicked’, ‘swampy’ or ‘messy’           it makes no sense to talk about ‘optimal so-       >> Every attempt to intervene alters
problems, partly in response to the turbu-         lutions’ to social problems (…). Even worse,          the problematic situation in signifi-
lence of the 1960s (remember the threat            there are no ‘solutions’ in the sense of defini-      cant ways.
of nuclear annihilation, the Vietnam de-           tive and objective answers.”
                                                                                                      >> Wicked problems do not have an
bacle, the student revolt, the emergence
                                                   What Rittel and Webber pointed out was                enumerable set of potential solu-
of an environmental agenda). Horst Rit-
                                                   that in many cases it is better to acknowl-           tions.
tel and Marvin Webber (a design theorist
                                                   edge upfront that science is ill-equipped
and an urban planner, respectively) wrote                                                             >> Every wicked problem can be con-
                                                   to tackle social challenges. There are two
a paper in 1973 with the forbidding title                                                                sidered to be a symptom of another
                                                   basic reasons for the wickedness of these
“Dilemmas in a General Theory of Plan-                                                                   problem.
                                                   problems: complexity and conflict. These
ning” in which they argued that scientific
                                                   problems are ambiguous and hard to pin
approaches to ‘problems of social policy’
                                                   down because they seem to consist of
were bound to fail because of the nature
                                                   many partial, but interrelated challenges.
of these problems.
                                                   So it is hard to tell what button to push,
                                                   or what lever to pull to make them go
                                                   away. And the people affected by these
                                                   problems will have very different views
                                                   on what the nature of the problem is and
                                                   how it can be tackled. So, a solution that
                                                   can be considered ‘optimal’ from an objec-
                                                   tive, impartial point of view does not exist.
10 Working with wicked problems / 1 guiding idea: wicked problems
Working with wicked problems / 1 guiding idea: wicked problems 11




Why is it important
to recognize wicked problems?
First it is important to acknowledge that
there is not an objective thing out there
to which we can point and say: “This is a
wicked problem”. A ‘wicked problem’ is
not a ‘thing’ but a social construct. It is a
particular way of looking at the world, of
framing the challenges we are currently
facing. What then do we have to gain by
taking this stance?

At a philosophical level we can argue
that framing challenges in a different
way opens up a novel repertoire of solu-
tion strategies. Sir Geoffrey Vickers, an
eminent systems thinker, thought that           And if we are aware of the conflicts be-      On a more practical level, framing issues
problems are only dangerous in relation-        tween world views in which the issue is       as wicked problems can be helpful to pro-
ship to what people can see, value and do:      enmeshed, then some way of accomodat-         gramme managers and strategists in organi-
“A trap is a trap only for creatures which      ing (if only temporarily) these differences   sations that are dealing with complex soci-
cannot solve the problem that it sets.” So,     needs to be part and parcel of our strategy   etal challenges on a day-to-day basis. These
if we can fashion ourselves a set of tools      to move ahead. So, observing the world        people will be asked to develop a ‘theory
that allow us to approach complex chal-         through a ‘wicked problem’ lens may make      of change’ that convinces their bosses and
lenges from different angles, then this         us a lot smarter, more realistic in our ex-   boards to allocate resources to deal with
may increase our chances to find a way          pectations, and more alert to the human       these issues. They will have to present the
forward. More specifically, thinking in         sensitivities embedded in complex chal-       challenge, the change they would like to
terms of ‘wicked problems’ will lead us to      lenges. As Jean Monnet, one of the found-     see and the approach that might be taken
approaches that acknowledge intercon-           ing fathers of the European Union used to     by the organisation to make a positive dif-
nectedness between many different par-          say: “If you are faced with a big problem,    ference. The ideas and methods included in
tial problems right from the start.             make it bigger.” That is what thinking in     this little guide may be helpful in elaborating
                                                terms of wicked problems helps us to do.      those ‘business cases’.
12 Working with wicked problems / 1 guiding idea: wicked problems




What are the risks related to thinking
in terms of wicked problems?
Framing the challenges facing us as
wicked problems is looking at the world
through a particular lens. Like all lenses,
this one has its strengths and its limita-
tions. It alerts us to complexity and con-
flict but in doing so may obscure simple
and pragmatic ways of making a positive
difference. Sometimes it may be quite ap-
propriate to make a big problem bigger.
But at other times it is helpful to eliminate
all the clutter and reduce the challenge
to its barest essence. Jack Sim, successful
entrepreneur and President of the World
Toilet Organisation, has built a powerful
advocacy organisation around the ‘simple’
given that at least 2 billion people on this
planet are suffering from serious health
problems because they do not have ac-
cess to adequate sanitation. It’s a glaring     hides a very complex problem, involving       Further reading
problem for which there is an obvious ‘fix’:    new technologies, habits of mind, hous-
                                                                                              >> RITTEL, H.W.J, WEBBER, M.M. (1973)
to get more flush toilets out there. This       ing regulations, etc. So it is probably not
                                                                                                 Dilemmas in a General Theory of Plan-
uncomplicated framing helps to focus            an either-or story. Whenever possible we
                                                                                                 ning, Policy Sciences, 4, 155-169.
energy and attention. No doubt, beyond          should be sensitive to wickedness and
this straightforward, linear perspective        simplicity at the same time. ■
Working with wicked problems / 3 ways of dealing with complexity 13




3 ways of dealing
 with complexity
Working with wicked problems / 3 ways of dealing with complexity 15




Once we are attuned to a ‘wicked’ per-        For now we suggest taking a step back
spective the question is how we might         and suspending our thinking in terms of
actively engage with it. ‘Actively engag-     ‘tools’ and ‘methodologies’. Let us first re-
ing’ means: building up an understanding      flect on three key ways to come to grips
of the challenge, developing strategies       with conflict and complexity. We’ll call
to intervene, getting our hands dirty to      them ‘Ideas’, ‘Dialogue’ and ‘Design’.
make a positive difference and assessing
the impacts of our work. Although this
suggests a neat ‘plan-do-check’ cycle, we
may be suffering here from the limitations
of our language. Later we will see that the
boundary between ‘doing’ and ‘thinking’
in dealing with wicked problems is not al-
ways so clear-cut.




Ideas
Whilst we can’t solve all our challenges      ancient Greek thought elements of a sys-        entered a familiar repertoire of problem
by sitting behind a desk and thinking,        tems approach can be identified.                solving skills. In fact, any programme
the world of abstract ideas continues to                                                      manager who has sketched out a ‘diagram
                                              Fundamental for a systems approach is
be an important inspiration to deal with                                                      of forces’ when pondering the connec-
                                              the question how an entity (any kind of
real-world complexity. More particularly,                                                     tions between many themes and trends
                                              organism, or organisation) can secure its
over the last six or seven decades a way                                                      affecting a certain overarching issue has
                                              viability in a changing environment. In re-
of thinking has emerged in response to                                                        been engaging in a form of systems think-
                                              sponse, systems science has developed a
the growing awareness that there are                                                          ing. Similarly, we have grown quite used to
                                              language and a set of tools to get a grip on
exceedingly complex systems that mod-                                                         thinking in terms of feedback mechanisms
                                              how our world is composed of many in-
ern science can never quite grasp. Rather                                                     when considering why systems behave as
                                              terconnected drivers and subsystems (its
than a neatly defined discipline ‘systems                                                     they do: inertia is linked to dampening
                                              structure), how it behaves over time (its
science’ is an interdisciplinary field that                                                   feedbacks (the ‘thermostat effect’), whilst
                                              dynamics) and how organisms of all kinds
has emerged from the convergence of,                                                          a runaway dynamic is easily associated to
                                              absorb this variety.
amongst others, ideas from neuroscience,                                                      reinforcing loops that move systems ever
mathematics, and biology. One could ar-       There is no need to be intimidated by           further away from a stable equilibrium.
gue that it is not at all new as already in   systems thinking as, to an extent, it has
16 Working with wicked problems / 3 ways of dealing with complexity




For aspiring systems thinkers it is worth-    can start to evaluate where it is most ben-   commodation between different points of
while to bear in mind that the whole field    eficial to intervene to improve that situ-    view. The distinction between ‘hard’ and
is traversed by an important conceptual       ation. This approach could be said to be      ‘soft’ systems thinking can be summarized
distinction between so-called ‘hard’ and      positivist. The ‘soft’ system thinker, how-   then as follows: in hard systems thinking
‘soft’ approaches. A ‘hard’ systems think-    ever, starts from the assumption that an      we construct models ‘of’ the world, whilst
er is primarily interested in developing      objective representation of reality is not    in the soft approach we construct models
(quantitative or qualitative) models of a     possible. Her stance is constructivist. The   ‘for’ the world. The point is not to build
problematic part of the world. These mod-     point of view of the observer always comes    sophisticated ‘pictures of reality’ but to
els are then considered to be an objective,   into play. In a soft systems approach the     work with pragmatic devices to make our
more or less accurate picture of that slice   focus is not on the models, but on the way    disagreements explicit, identify common
of reality. Once we have that picture we      we use these models to come to an ac-         ground and take action.
Working with wicked problems / 3 ways of dealing with complexity 17




Dialogue
Dialogue is not a recognised discipline (as    Quantum physicist David Bohm took the          nity, small or large. As long as people do
systems science) or practice (as design,       practice of dialogue to a point that is as     not feel accountable for the wellbeing of
see below). It is something we engage in       far removed from a preformatted ‘partici-      their community, defining and studying
on a regular basis, effortlessly. However,     patory process’ as we can imagine. To him      problems will be of little help. Social capi-
when grappling with wicked problems we         dialogue did not serve a particular, fixed     tal enables what Block refers to as ‘cho-
are aiming for a dialogue that has a par-      purpose. The conversation may at any mo-       sen accountability’, when people step up
ticular quality. Probably, we have all expe-   ment have a purpose, but for him it was        to bring an alternative future into being.
rienced at some point in our lives that a      crucial not to hold on to it. Dialogue for     Dialogue is the only vehicle that is able to
deep conversation may lead us to quite         Bohm was a sort of meta-exploration, a         sustain that kind of transformation.
a different place from which we started.       joint practice of wanting to suspend judg-
                                                                                              Dialogue opens up a space to deal with
Suddenly there is the feeling that a trap-     ment at all times during our interaction.
                                                                                              complexity that is very different from a
door opens below our feet and we are mo-       He saw dialogue as a way to plant seeds,
                                                                                              systems approach. The two approaches
mentarily suspended above an unfamiliar        to build a capacity for action that might
                                                                                              can be complementary but they can also
but exciting mental landscape. We feel         come to fruition, or might not.
                                                                                              be at odds with one another. A systems
that we are really connecting with our in-
                                               All this may sound terribly esoteric. But      approach is very often diagnostic in na-
terlocutors and that we understand things
                                               maybe it becomes more approachable             ture. It seeks to understand why things
that we haven’t been able to grasp before.
                                               when we translate it into a contemporary       don’t work. And starting from those in-
Context often matters. A very long train
                                               jargon that talks about building social        sights it identifies measures to remedy
ride or a remote location seem to bring
                                               capital. Author Peter Block sees dealing       the problematic situation. Dialogue, as
about these experiences more easily.
                                               with wicked challenges not as focusing on      we understand it here, is much more ori-
                                               deficiencies and fear but as building social   ented towards liberating the potential
                                               fabric. Problems do not exist in a vacuum.     for change of a community. It builds on
                                               They are always embedded in a commu-           strengths and desires.
18 Working with wicked problems / 3 ways of dealing with complexity




Design
A third and very different way to tackle
complexity is design. Designers are peo-
ple who are able to synthesise novel,
tangible forms (products, houses, cities) –
and increasingly also intangible processes
such as services – out of the messiness
of daily reality. They are particularly good
at forging connections between seem-
                                                One of the defining features of a design       Designers bring very valuable skills to any
ingly unrelated issues. As such design is
                                                approach is the almost activist energy it      team that is dealing with wicked problems.
increasingly seen as a way of thinking that
                                                seems to generate from its practitioners.      Importantly they also inject a unique,
is fundamentally different from the induc-
                                                A good designer is not easily intimidated      positive kind of energy in the process of
tive reasoning of science and deductive
                                                by complexity. Unlike a systems thinker,       grappling with important challenges. Last
schemata of logic.
                                                who will take her time to pause and ana-       but not least, their capacity to suggest a
Designers make use of concepts but they         lyse, a designer will start to sketch almost   new reality through physical models and
are not merely ‘thinkers’. Learning expert      immediately. There is an intimate cou-         drawings can function as a unique catalyst
Donald Schön referred to them as ‘reflec-       pling between the motor movement of            for change.
tive practitioners’: people who are able        the hand across the paper and the emer-
to ‘reflect on action so as to engage in a      gence of an intellectual strategy to deal
process of continuous learning’. In design      with the challenge at hand. Giorgio Vasari,
practice it is hard to say where the think-     the 16th century painter and architect, ar-
ing stops and the action begins. It is a con-   gued that a ‘concept’ implied a movement
stant, tightly meshed cycle of observation,     of the mind. To him the art of drawing was
ideation, prototyping and testing. In that      a form of thinking. Designers have not lost
process, designers not only create things       this ability to think with their hands.
but they also create new knowledge.
Working with wicked problems / 3 ways of dealing with complexity 19




All together now
Ideas, dialogue and design provide three                                                   Susan van’t Klooster has shown in her
different repertoires of thinking and act-                                                 research how difficult it sometimes is for
ing when confronted with wicked prob-                                                      foresight practitioners (a particular brand
lems. We can see them as different types                                                   of system thinkers) and urban designers to
of knowing. Action research pioneer John                                                   productively work together. These differ-
Heron referred to propositional knowing                                                    ent communities seem to speak the same
(ideas), experiential and presentational                                                   language but different meanings may hide
knowing (dialogue), and practical know-                                                    behind the same words. Furthermore,
ing (design), respectively. They are not                                                   when it comes to creating a setting for
rigidly compartmentalized, however. Sys-                                                   authentic dialogue, the professional ex-
tem thinkers may embody a designerly,                                                      pertise of systems thinkers and designers
action-oriented approach in their prac-                                                    may get in the way. Nevertheless, people
tice. Designers will rely on concepts when                                                 whose mandate it is to engage with wick-
developing their proposals. Both may rely                                                  ed problems do well to consider how each
on forms of dialogue in the process. Fur-                                                  of these fundamentally different ways of
thermore, it is not always necessary to      Bringing different skill sets together also   grappling with complexity may contrib-
have these three ingredients in the prob-    creates its own kind of complexity. It’s      ute, in their specific settings, to making
lem solving mix.                             not a given that they will blend to create    a difference that matters. It is worthwhile
                                             something that is more than the sum of        to seek synergies between these different
                                             the parts. We have already pointed out        approaches. Ignoring these synergies may
                                             that a systems perspective and a dialogue     come at a high societal cost.
                                             practice are not necessarily aligned.
20 Working with wicked problems / 3 ways of dealing with complexity




Conclusion
>> We have distinguished three very dif-        >> These different repertoires are not       Further reading
   ferent ways of thinking and acting to           rigidly compartmentalised. An indi-
                                                                                             >> BOHM, D. (2007) On Dialogue, Rout-
   come to grips with wicked problems:             vidual practitioner may be skillful in
                                                                                                ledge, London.
   Ideas (systems thinking), Dialogue and          combining all three in helping people
   Design.                                         to grapple with conflict and complex-     >> BLOCK, P. (2008) Community. The
                                                   ity. However, bringing these different       Structure of Belonging, Berret-Koe-
>> Systems thinking essentially tries to
                                                   skills together creates its own kind of      hler Publishers, San Francisco.
   understand how entities can maintain
                                                   complexity. Nevertheless, it is always
   their existence in a changing environ-                                                    >> KOLKO, J. (2010) ‘Abductive think-
                                                   worthwhile to assess how each of
   ment. ‘Hard’ systems thinkers inter-                                                         ing and sensemaking: the drivers of
                                                   these different repertoires may con-
   vene in the system’s architecture as                                                         design synthesis’, in: Design Issues,
                                                   tribute to making a positive difference
   engineers. Soft systems thinkers cre-                                                        Volume 26, Number 1, Winter, 15-28.
                                                   to wicked problems. ■
   ate a context to increase the system’s
                                                                                             >> VAN ‘T KLOOSTER, S. (2007) Toe-
   capacity for learning and action.
                                                                                                komstverkenning: ambities en de
>> Dialogue is a vehicle for creating social                                                    praktijk. Een ethnografische studie
   capital. Social capital in its turn is the                                                   naar de productie van toekomstkennis
   fuel which drives a community’s capac-                                                       bij het Ruimtelijk Planbureau (RPB),
   ity for transformation.                                                                      Uitgeverij Eburon, Delft.
>> Design is a skill to materially extract
   the shape of an alternative reality from
   a very messy context. As a rule design-
   ers bring a positive kind of energy to
   the process of grappling with impor-
   tant challenges.
Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging 21




5 ways of knowing
     and engaging
Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging 23




In this section we will discuss five coher-       Given the open-ended nature of wicked          support structured and effective learning.
ent approaches to tackle wicked prob-             problems it will also be clear that none       It’s not about reaching final solutions, but
lems. They embody in various ways the             of these approaches provides us with a         about being able to continuously adapt to
three key ways of dealing with complexity         neat, stepwise template. When dealing          changing circumstances. The discussions
that we discussed in the previous section.        with wicked problems we are in a terri-        necessarily have to remain very brief. In-
Obviously this is not an exhaustive list          tory beyond shrinkwrapped tools. We will       terested readers are invited to follow the
of tools and methodologies to engage in           have to shape interventions in a creative      pointers to additional literature that are
complex problem solving. Some of these            and context-sensitive way. As we will see,     supplied at the end of each section.
approaches have been around for a long            all of the proposed approaches boil es-
time, others have emerged more recently.          sentially down to different strategies to




A/ Soft Systems Methodology
Summary
SSM is an approach that is able to integrate systems ideas, dialogue and action-orientation

into a coherent whole. It proposes a disciplined process to create clarity in a complex, prob-

lematic situation. Soft Systems Methodology allows us to step back from the messiness of the

actual challenge and to think about ways of organising in an idealised realm. It is a process

that takes differences between the world-views of people affected by the situation explicitly

into account. The purpose is to come to a joint agreement about what actions are desirable

and feasible that may lead to an improvement, however modest, in the situation.



Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) is an              action”. SSM has not been designed to          a very different understanding. What SSM
approach that is both very simple and very        solve the world’s greatest problems. But it    does is to make these differences in fram-
sophisticated. Peter Checkland, who was           can be of great help to a group of people      ing very explicit and then to seek an ac-
a key figure in its development, captured         who jointly want to agree on how to deal       commodation between these differences
the approach’s raison d’être very succinct-       with a problematic situation they are all      in deciding upon actions to bring about
ly in the title of his last book: “learning for   affected by but of which they may have         improvement.
24 Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging




The trick is that SSM asks its practitioners     ent purpose. Clearly, these models do not      The diagram on the opposite page, origi-
to leave the complexity of the real world        describe the real world, as each of them       nally developed by Peter Checkland, cap-
for a while and think about how we might         is based on one pure worldview. They are       tures this basic logic: the discovery and
want to act in an idealised realm. Suppose       just tools to explore the problematic situ-    articulation of a problematic situation in
that we are confronted with a problem-           ation in an organised way.                     the real world (‘finding out’) leads to a
atic situation in a health care system. SSM                                                     phase of conceptual modelling in an ide-
                                                 Once we have those models we can use
asks us to step away from the concrete                                                          alised realm (‘systems thinking’). The com-
                                                 them as a source of questions about the
messiness of the particular health system                                                       parison between the conceptual (activity)
                                                 real-world situation. The idealized activity
we are studying and to think about the                                                          models and the problematic situation pro-
                                                 models can be contrasted with the actual
purpose of that system from one specific                                                        vides a compass for feasible and desirable
                                                 care system and from the gap between
vantage point at a time. We might, for                                                          changes, which leads to action to improve
                                                 the two may emerge ideas for change and
instance, argue that the care system ex-                                                        the situation (‘taking action’).
                                                 improvement. Obviously, the differences
ists ‘to return people to a state of physi-
                                                 in worldview will continue to exist and
cal and mental normalcy’ as quickly and
                                                 the distinct activity models will make sure
efficiently as possible. Other people may                                                       The power of SSM derives from a num-
                                                 we will be quite aware of them. The chal-
put forward that the system is there ‘to                                                        ber of unique features:
                                                 lenge is then to find changes that are both
help people to maintain quality of life
                                                 desirable (given these models) but also        >> The willingness to make differences in
when confronted with an illness’. Clearly,
                                                 feasible for people in this particular situ-      framing of problematic situations very
two very different, but valid purposes that
                                                 ation. That is a process of seeking accom-        explicit: SSM assumes upfront that
might underpin the functioning of a care
                                                 modation. Depending upon the urgency              clashing worldviews are always pre-
system (and maybe there are more pur-
                                                 of the situation and the ambition level of        sent in human affairs. Rather than pre-
poses to be found). If we were to consider
                                                 the participants, accommodation may be            tending these differences aren’t there,
how the care system would have to func-
                                                 weak or strong. The option to do nothing          it takes the disagreement as a source
tion to realise those different purposes,
                                                 is not warranted. So even if accommoda-           of insight, energy and creative tension.
we would realise that this would involve
                                                 tion is weak, at least some action towards
different kinds of activities. For example,                                                     >> The temporary move away from the
                                                 improvement will be taken. Maybe that
in the former case there ought to be pro-                                                          messiness of the real situation: by pull-
                                                 will build some trust in the capacity of
fessionals in the system that busy them-                                                           ing the enquiry away from the actual
                                                 the multi-stakeholder group to jointly
selves with diagnostically assessing how                                                           situation and thinking about it from an
                                                 deal with the problematic situation. If it
large the gap between the patient’s situ-                                                          idealised, single-worldview perspec-
                                                 does, then after a while another soft sys-
ation and ‘normality’ is. In the latter case                                                       tive, SSM creates a more relaxed and
                                                 tems exercise may be undertaken which
we would have people (not necessarily                                                              disciplined setting to deal with urgent
                                                 will hopefully lead to more far-reaching
professionals) who would be engaged in                                                             challenges.
                                                 accommodation. And so a soft systems
helping those with an illness (not neces-
                                                 approach gives impetus to a social learn-
sarily labelled as ‘patients’) to build skills
                                                 ing cycle that builds some understanding
to play a role in their own recovery pro-
                                                 about the wicked problem and trust to
cess. What SSM requires us to do then is
                                                 jointly intervene in it over time.
to build a separate activity model for a
care system underpinned by each differ-
Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging 25




                                                                    taking action

               The problem
                                         Action to improve                             Definition
                 situation:
                                           the situation                               of feasible
               unstructured
           1                             7                                             desirable
                                                                                        changes

Finding out                                                                          6

                2                                    Comparison
                      The problem                     of 4 with 2
                  situation: expressed         5
                                                                              Real world
                                                                               Systems thinking
                                                                                                orld
                                                                               about the real w
Systems
Thinking



           3       System definition
                    expressed from              4     Activity models
                a particular worldview
26 Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging




>> The focus on activities rather than            lematic situation’ we refer to a slice       In terms of implementation, an SSM-
   organisations: in wicked problems re-          of the everyday flux of events that we       based project may take anything between
   lated to human institutions people will        recognise as being in need of improve-       an afternoon and 6 months. Given the
   very often be tempted to think in or-          ment but of which we still need to make      requirement that only people participate
   ganisational terms. However, as a rule         sense. ‘Problem’ implies a well-defined      who have first-hand experience of the
   this is very political territory and will      given that asks for a ‘solution’. Similary   problematic situation and who can take
   be seen as very threatening to those           SSM aims for ‘accommodation’ not             responsibility for intervening in it, the
   who are at risk to lose power. By focus-       ‘consensus’. The former is more fluid        number of participants will usually vary
   ing on an organisation’s purpose (its          and temporary than the latter.               between 10 and a few dozen.
   essential contribution, seen through
                                                                                               Above we have briefly discussed the or-
   the lens of a particular worldview)
                                                                                               thodox soft systems approach as it has
   and the activities that are needed to       Like any methodology, SSM also has
                                                                                               been described and practised by its origi-
   fulfill that purpose, the enquiry is mo-    relative weaknesses:
                                                                                               nal developers. However, there are many
   mentarily isolated from organisational
                                               >> The focus on feasibility: in SSM the         elements in the approach (for example
   power play. Only later, once it is clear
                                                  interventions are limited by what is         thinking in terms of activities rather than
   what activities are needed, we can ask
                                                  deemed culturally and politically feasi-     organisations) that will be valuable in oth-
   ‘who will contribute to what action?’
                                                  ble. They do not emerge from a vision-       er ‘wicked’ settings as well.
   As a rule there are many organisation-
                                                  ary perspective that radically wants to
   al configurations that fit the require-
                                                  transcend the existing challenges.
   ments posed by a given activity model.
   This creates space for accommodation.       >> Process-wise it is sometimes difficult to
                                                  convince participants to go along with
>> The focus on local, pragmatic action:
                                                  discipline of developing multiple activ-
   the approach has in the first place
                                                  ity models each of which is associated
   been developed as a way to help peo-
                                                  with a different purpose for the system.
   ple that have first-hand experience of
                                                  In acute problematic situations people
   a problematic situation to take steps
                                                  are often so hungry for structure that
   towards dealing with the situation. It is
                                                  they are happy to stop after a first ac-
   those people themselves that have to
                                                  tivity model has been generated. Going
   decide (and hence take accountability
                                                  beyond that to explore other world-
   for) the scope of the accommodation
                                                  views (and hence to increase complexi-
   they want to mutually agree on. This
                                                  ty) may require considerable persuasion
   ensures buy-in and commitment, even                                                         Further reading
                                                  skills from a facilitator.
   if it is only for small steps.
                                                                                               >> CHECKLAND, P., POULTER, J. (2008)
                                               >> Whilst it is founded on a set of simple,
>> The importance of language: In SSM we                                                          Learning for Action. A Short Definitive
                                                  clear ideas, SSM embodies a logic that
   talk about a ‘problematic situation’ not                                                       Account of Soft Systems Methodology,
                                                  people do not easily make their own. It
   about a ‘problem’. The difference is sub-                                                      and Its Use Practitioners, Teachers and
                                                  may take a while before they really get
   tle but important. When we say ‘prob-                                                          Students, Wiley, Chichester.
                                                  the logic of the approach.
Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging 27




B/ Transition Management
Summary
Transition Management is an approach to guide big systems (in health care, agriculture, mo-         As a rule they are difficult to change (be-
                                                                                                    cause they exhibit lock-in). A landscape
bility, etc.) towards a more sustainable equilibrium. However, despite the label it is less about
                                                                                                    is the wider context that influences the
‘managing’ than about creating the right conditions for change to happen. Three elements            regime. A niche, finally, is an emerging
                                                                                                    innovation that is seeking to destabilise
play a crucial role in a transition process: a guiding image of a more sustainable future, a
                                                                                                    or adapt the regime. For instance, in our
collection of innovative experiments that explore the boundary of the possible and an infra-        personal mobility system the regime piv-
                                                                                                    ots around the petrol-powered car. Today
structure to extract and diffuse the learning from those experiences. Transition management
                                                                                                    this regime is under pressure from various
relies on creative incubators (‘arenas’) to spearhead these processes. The approach bundles a       developments: climate change, local air
                                                                                                    quality, congestion. The electric car could
very rich experience in dealing with complexity, participation and innovation into a coher-
                                                                                                    be considered as a maturing niche that
ent framework. However, it is by no means a cookbook approach but requires creativity and           might challenge the preeminence of the
                                                                                                    internal combustion engine. The interplay
stamina to turn vision into hands-on realities.
                                                                                                    between landscape pressures and impuls-
                                                                                                    es from niches may create conditions for
In contrast with Soft Systems Methodol-           management (Plan C), sustainable build-           large socio-technical systems to change.
ogy, developed to guide relatively small          ing and living (DUWOBO) and agriculture
                                                                                                    Transition Management aims to create
groups of people in dealing with local            (The New Food Frontier).
                                                                                                    the right conditions for change to happen.
wicked problems, Transition Management
                                                  Transition Management relies on an in-            In that sense, the very notion of ‘manag-
focuses on radical changes needed in
                                                  teresting framework to understand these           ing’ a transition is somewhat paradoxical.
large systems, such as regional or national
                                                  large-scale change processes. The so-             People engaged in bringing transitions
health care, mobility, agriculture and en-
                                                  called ‘multi-level perspective’ (MLP) sees       about are more in the role of a ‘midwife’
ergy systems. Transition Management
                                                  transitions arise when developments at            than of a controlling ‘engineer’.
has the ambition to change structures,
                                                  different scales – landscape (macro), re-
practices and culture that are deeply en-                                                           Three elements play a crucial role in a
                                                  gime (meso), niches (micro) – reinforce
trenched in our society in an attempt to                                                            transition practice. First there is the devel-
                                                  each other (see diagram on the next
move towards a more sustainable future.                                                             opment of a visionary long-term perspec-
                                                  page). Regimes are the dominant way
That, clearly, is a ‘wicked’ context. In Flan-                                                      tive on what a sustainable system might
                                                  to do things, embodied by familiar infra-
ders transition processes have been initi-                                                          look like.
                                                  structures, institutions and worldviews.
ated in the area of sustainable materials
28 Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging




Landscape




Patchwork
of regimes




Niches
(novelty)



That vision is not a fixed image of a de-    Practically, a transition management effort      It is important to realise that a transition
sired future that needs to be shared by      relies on a ‘transition arena’ as a participa-   process can never be a cookbook ap-
all but rather a broad canvas intended to    tory instrument. It is a temporary incuba-       proach. It is a complex strategy to deal with
inspire and energise a broad stakeholder     tor populated by a medium-sized group of         wickedness. It’s a multi-actor, multi-level,
arena. That is another key element: an       creative and concerned people (so-called         multi-phase and multi-pattern process.
evolving field of innovative experiments,    ‘frontrunners’) from different sectors (con-     In essence the approach revolves around
supported by diverse coalitions of actors,   nected to the transition focus), with a mix      ensuring some degree of fit between a
oriented towards learning by doing. These    of competences (systems thinking, com-           broad, systemic vision and a collection of
experiments are not so much about solv-      municating, initiating) and networks. They       probably very different experiments. It’s an
ing particular problems in a community,      are supported by process and content ex-         exercise in balancing between chaos and
or market-driven introduction of a new       perts. The arena serves to create trust, ex-     order. That has to be a participatory sense-
technology but about pushing the en-         change ideas, dig deep into the issues and       making process that is inevitably traversed
velope, and in that process seeing what      shape an engaging future agenda. This eas-       by uncertainty, new insights and evolving
works and what doesn’t. The third crucial    ily takes a year, sometimes more. Once the       power relationships. In this fluid environ-
element is a ‘learning network’ to help      agenda (which can be a single, overarching       ment the three pivotal approaches of sys-
identify new opportunities, to strengthen    vision, or a looser collection of images) is     tems thinking (envisioning new system
ongoing experiments and to extend the        felt to be rich and engaging enough, it can      architectures), dialogue (joint learning and
buy-in for the change process.               be shared with a wider community. Then           sense-making) and design (experimenting)
                                             begins the hard work to try and turn these       are very much intertwined.
                                             ideas into tangible experiments.
Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging 29




                                  Problem structuring,
                                  establishment of the
                                                                                                            Strategic sphere
                                  transition arena and
                                      envisioning


                                                                  Developing
                Evaluating,                                        coalitions
                monitoring                                            and                                     Tactical sphere
               and learning                                       transition-
                                                                    agendas


                                  Mobilising actors and
                                 executing projects and
                                                                                                        Operational sphere
                                     experiments



The diagram above (after Loorbach) visual-       together. The paradoxical task for transi-        socio-technical experiments. These quite
ises this interplay between these strategic      tion champions is to force “radical change        different transition philosophies do not
(envisioning), operational (experimenting)       in incremental steps”.                            have to be compartmentalised (but in ac-
and tactical (building coalitions; learning)                                                       tual practice they often are).
                                                 Given the complexity and scope of transi-
spheres.
                                                 tion efforts it is very likely that regional or
A key question that bedevils many transi-        national governments play an important
tion initiatives is the relationship between     role as funders, conveners and also as cli-
innovators (niches) and regime players. If       ents for new policy ideas. Orthodox Tran-
they join forces in an early phase of the        sition Management is, as a rule, strongly
                                                                                                   Further reading
transition there is a possibility for creating   dependent on established institutions
necessary buy-in with established actors.        even if only for receiving a mandate to           >> LOORBACH, D. (2007), Transition
But the risk is that the process is stalled      innovate. The ‘transition’ label has been            Management: New Mode of Govern-
because of conflict and power play. In the       claimed by more activist groups as well.             ance for Sustainable Development,
alternative case the lack of broad support       Transition Towns, for example, is a social           International Books.
may hamper innovation efforts. There             movement that seeks to equip local com-
                                                                                                   >> HENNEMAN, P., LOORBACH, D.,
is no right or wrong approach to this. A         munities to deal with future effects of
                                                                                                      TIMMERMAN, D. (2012) Burger-
soft systems practitioner would simply           scarcity of fossil fuels and climate change.
                                                                                                      meesterboek. Lokaal en duurzaam in-
observe that initially the space for accom-      The focus is on empowering citizens to
                                                                                                      noveren voor iedereen, Van Gorcum,
modation will be smaller when frontrun-          adopt new practices and lifestyles rather
                                                                                                      Amsterdam.
ners and vested interests try to transition      than on creating a setting favourable to
30 Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging




C/ Future Scenarios
Summary
Scenarios are basically multiple stories about how the future might unfold. They help in un-

derstanding the uncertainty that goes with an open future. But the future is not empty:

understanding it is also an invitation to intervene. Scenarios are wonderful containers for

breakthrough ideas. They can also act as launching pads for action and experimentation. And

in environments riddled by conflict they provide a safe space for dialogue. The approach is a

veritable intellectual Swiss Army knife for dealing with ‘wicked problems’.



As human beings, and more specifically           We need to go just a little bit beyond this     open and exploratory perspective that ac-
as Westerners who embrace belief in pro-         basic insight to capture the essence of the     knowledges uncertainty (see diagram on
gress and in the power of reason to shape        contemporary scenario practice. Indeed,         the opposite page).
the world according to our own under-            distinctive of how people use future sce-
                                                                                                 The basic idea underlying the use of future
standing, we happen to be interested in          narios today is that these descriptions
                                                                                                 scenarios is therefore quite simple and it is
the future. In response to that fascination      do not occur in isolation, but in sets. The
                                                                                                 a practice that comes naturally to us. Given
people have adopted or developed intel-          point is not to tell just a gratuitous story
                                                                                                 the simplicity it is perhaps not surprising
lectual strategies and practices to make         about the future, but to develop differ-
                                                                                                 that the scenario methodology has proved
sense of the not-yet-known.                      ent, internally consistent perspectives on
                                                                                                 to be adaptable to many different circum-
                                                 what might come to pass. Hence, we are in
Future scenarios are one of these devices                                                        stances and to serve a broad variety of
                                                 agreement with Philip van Notten when he
that have been fielded in this quest. In                                                         goals. Scenario thinking has in some views
                                                 defines scenarios as “consistent and coher-
fact, we are dealing here with an ancient                                                        been narrowed down to churning out 2-by-
                                                 ent descriptions of alternative hypothetical
practice – storytelling – that has been re-                                                      2 matrices (defining 4 scenarios) in stand-
                                                 futures that reflect different perspectives
contextualised against the background of                                                         ardised workshop formats. But the reality
                                                 on past, present and future developments,
our desire to come to terms with the fu-                                                         of the scenario practice is more complex
                                                 which can serve as a basis for action.” That
ture. So scenarios revolve around a very                                                         than that. For instance, the database of the
                                                 multiplicity is key as it entails a move away
basic idea, namely that it is potentially                                                        European Foresight Monitoring Network
                                                 from a predictive stance that sees the fu-
useful to develop hypothetical descrip-                                                          contains thousands of published studies. Al-
                                                 ture essentially as a unidirectional extrapo-
tions of what the future might be.                                                               though it is possible to find patterns in the
                                                 lation of certain trends in the past, to an
Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging 31




                                                                                                                                          Alternative futures
              Drivers
             of change


                                                                                   Development
              Complexity                                                              paths



way the approach has been deployed the          Then we need to agree on what the purpose            have effectively constructed an anten-
variety remains bewildering. This flexibility   of the scenario development is. What would           na for us to observe and interpret our
is a strength of the approach, but it is also   we like our effort to achieve? One way to            evolving environment with. Sometimes
a potential weakness. When it is not exactly    get a grip on the approach’s flexibility is the      this process is also referred to as ‘hori-
clear what scenarios are meant to achieve it    following typology of non-exclusive goals            zon scanning’.
is very easy to go astray and end up with an    that may be pursued with scenarios:
                                                                                                  >> ‘Windtunneling’: organisations that are
end result that nobody really needs. The art
                                                >> Interpreting: the world around us is              contemplating significant investments
of scenario development does really reside
                                                   complex, certainly when we are trying             might want to test those against the
in connecting clearly stated objectives with
                                                   to understand long-term developments.             background of possible futures. This
available resources through a process that is
                                                   Scenarios can be considered as a set of           is similar to engineers putting scale
enabling and fit-for-purpose.
                                                   sophisticated lenses to observe our en-           models of cars or airplanes in a wind
To anchor a scenario exercise we need              vironment with. Each scenario allows us           tunnel to test their resilience when
to agree first and foremost on a substan-          to attach meaning to signals we pick up           subjected to extraordinary forces. Ide-
tive focus. What are the scenarios going           through our interaction with the world.           ally, critical decisions are robust in the
to be about? That is really a matter of our        For example, a certain newspaper arti-            face of uncertainty. That means that
choice. We are free to think about global          cle may strike us as pointing to a future         they perform more or less well against
developments against a time horizon dec-           as embodied by scenario A. Another fits           whatever future scenario we might
ades away, or about the future of our own          rather in scenario C. And so on. So by            think of. Caution is advised when deci-
community in the next couple of years.             developing a set of future scenarios we           sions entail significant risks in any of
32 Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging




   the scenarios. In this kind of scenario           organisation’s ability to shed its familiar      grate various sources of knowledge and
   work solid research is key.                       ways of looking at its environment and           orient experimentation. We are moving
                                                     its own purpose. In management theory            closely to what Sondeijker has called
>> Seeking alignment: sitting together to
                                                     a powerful image has emerged to cap-             ‘transition scenarios’.
   jointly imagine alternative futures is
                                                     ture that ability: ‘blue ocean strategy’.
   potentially a powerful and liberating ex-                                                       From the above it is obvious that scenarios
                                                     Rather than competing for the same
   perience, particularly in settings where                                                        are an intellectual and participatory Swiss
                                                     prey (in a ‘red’, blood-saturated ocean)
   violence and conflict have led to deep-                                                         army knife. They can be used in many dif-
                                                     we are at liberty to bring to life a new
   seated distrust between stakeholders.                                                           ferent ways. Processes and resources will
                                                     opportunity space, based on a refram-
   No one has privileged insight into the                                                          vary accordingly. Scenario projects do not
                                                     ing of how the world works, what needs
   long-term future. That is why the fu-                                                           have to be costly and time-consuming,
                                                     exist out there and how we might want
   ture is a safe conceptual space in which                                                        however. In the right circumstances, with
                                                     to make a difference. Richard Normann
   people can explore each other’s world-                                                          the right people around the table, an after-
                                                     has shown how scenarios can be used
   views and develop a shared language to                                                          noon back-of-the-envelope exercise might
                                                     as a scaffolding for drawing new mental
   talk about choices and developments                                                             do the trick. In other cases there will be no
                                                     maps of our environment. These maps
   that affect them all (albeit in different                                                       other way than to create time and space
                                                     can gradually change the landscape for
   ways). In these settings the process is                                                         for deep research, building trust and broad
                                                     other actors as well.
   more important than the product. The                                                            communication.
   purpose is to develop trust and social         >> ‘Enabling collaborative action’: in a plan-
   capital, not to display intellectual rigour.      ning environment that is ‘wicked’, i.e.
                                                     that is characterised by abundance of
>> Agenda setting: stories about the future
                                                     information and the continued friction
   have an obvious communicative appeal.
                                                     between multiple worldviews, it is wiser
   In the hands of activists they can be
                                                     to pursue a strategy of collaborative         Further reading
   turned into a powerful vehicle for ad-
                                                     in(ter)vention than to simply draw up
   vocacy. Scenarios are then used as nar-                                                         >> VAN DER HEIJDEN, K. (1996) Scenar-
                                                     ‘a plan’. In response, Angela Wilkinson
   ratives that exemplify the negative im-                                                            ios. The Art of Strategic Conversation,
                                                     has proposed to use scenarios as flexible
   plications of unwanted policy decisions                                                            Wiley, Chichester.
                                                     canvases for a process of action learning.
   or, vice versa, the desirable effects of a
                                                     She calls them ‘reflexive interventionist/    >> GODET, M. (2001) Creating Futures.
   proper course of action. In this setting,
                                                     multi-actor’ (or RIMA) scenarios. They           Scenario Planning as a Strategic Man-
   scenarios are inevitably normative: they
                                                     are reflexive because they feed a process        agement Tool. Economica, London.
   adopt a position – for or against, desir-
                                                     of continuous reframing of the environ-
   able or undesirable – with regard to the                                                        >> NORMANN, R. (2001) Reframing
                                                     ment and our relationship with it. They
   future. This judgmental quality can be                                                             Business. When the Map Changes
                                                     are interventionist because they sustain
   used to energise and orient a societal                                                             the Landscape, Wiley, Chichester.
                                                     action learning. In this setting, scenarios
   debate around choices with important
                                                     will only be part of a wider toolbox. They    >> WILKINSON, A., EIDINOW, E. (2008)
   consequences.
                                                     are not an end in themselves, but a ve-          ‘Evolving practices in environmental
>> Reframing: one of the most decisive               hicle to enable conversation, to explore         scenarios: a new scenario typology’,
   sources of competitive advantage is an            ideas far beyond the status quo, to inte-        in: Environ. Res. Lett. 3
Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging 33




D/ Design Thinking
Summary
Design has just started to move away from shaping individual products and buildings to

a more strategic agenda. Design thinkers approach the world as a giant laboratory. They

are not intimidated by complexity but start with patient observation of the ‘system-as-is’.

Every ‘problem’ contains ‘positive deviants’: practices that contain the germs of novel solu-

tions. Immersion leads to ideas, drawings, sketches, models, and back to observation and

ideas. Visualisation and prototyping is a powerful means of catalysing new ideas and testing

emergent solutions. Skillful design thinkers are reflective practitioners, engaged in a process

of action learning.



For many people ‘design’ means still es-         global hinterland. What underpins de-            novation and business strategy.” What
sentially ‘styling’: the art of giving pleas-    signers’ ambitions to tackle these chal-         this means is that the way companies or
ing or striking shapes to consumer prod-         lenging issues? In two words: a mindset          public services create value is increasing-
ucts or buildings. But design has always         and a methodology. Recently these have           ly a reflection of what designers have al-
been more than that. Recently this has           been packaged and branded as ‘design             ways done: understand and reframe the
become obvious in designers’ move to             thinking’. But it’s just another one of          needs and requirements of users, look for
more strategic briefings. Industrial de-         those unlucky oxymorons as design goes           solutions together with these users and
signers are not only designing isolated          beyond ‘thinking’ to inextricably weave          other stakeholders, visualise ideas and
products, but increasingly also consumer         the ‘doing’ in the way it deals with reality.    review those with users (see diagram on
and citizen experiences, commercial and                                                           the next page). Let’s look at each of these
                                                 Thomas Lockwood, President of the De-
public services, and larger systems in the                                                        key steps in turn.
                                                 sign Management Institute characterises
public sphere (in transport and health
                                                 ‘design thinking’ as “a human-centered           >> Understanding the needs of users: de-
care, for example). Urban designers are
                                                 innovation process that emphasizes                  sign work does not start with abstrac-
looking beyond the scope of a single
                                                 observation, collaboration, fast learn-             tions but with a careful observation
building or even a neighbourhood to
                                                 ing, visualization of ideas, rapid concept          of lived reality. Urban designer Paola
some of the most complex systems on
                                                 prototyping, and concurrent business                Vigano’ refers to this process as ‘hav-
this planet: big cities embedded in their
                                                 analysis, which ultimately influences in-           ing a conversation with a situation’. De-
34 Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging




1.	Define the challenge/                                                                    >> Visualise solutions: one of designers’
   opportunity                                                    10. Iterate                  most distinctive skills is to turn ideas
                                                                                               into tangible shapes. Even in the age
                                                                                               of computer modelling great archi-
  2. Gather data                                                                               tects will insist on making (sometimes
                                                                    9. Implement
                                                                                               hundreds of) models along the way
                                                                                               in a complicated project. They do this
                                                                    8.	Assess                  not only to provide the user or client
  3.	Re-frame/                                                        outcomes/                (who is usually less skilled in imagining
    clarify                                                           refine                   three-dimensional structures) an idea
    challenge                                                                                  of what the future reality might look
                                                                                               like, but also to stimulate their own
                                                              7. Prototype / test              thinking. The actual process of using
                4. Incubate                                                                    motor skills to draw or to make a mod-
                                                                                               el does something to the brain: model-
                                                         6. Evaluate / refine                  ling is a very special form of thinking.
                             5. Ideate/illuminate                                              Again, a wide variety of formats may
                                                                                               be used, ranging from tabletop ma-
                                                                                               quettes to storyboards to more con-
                                                                                               ceptual representations such as maps
   signers immerse themselves and open         to see solutions and opportunities              and cause or flow diagrams.
   themselves up to the system-as-is. They     where other people see only prob-
                                                                                            >> Test solutions: design thinking is ac-
   use a wide range of techniques to learn     lems. Designers always have a utopian
                                                                                               tion learning. Prototypes, often made
   to look through other people’s eyes:        streak. They refuse to be intimidated
                                                                                               with very modest means, reveal a lot
   ethnographic methods (as used by an-        by complexity but start from the prem-
                                                                                               about how new solutions might work
   thropologists to study foreign cultures),   ise that ‘anything is possible’. An archi-
                                                                                               in real life. Of course, it’s easy to make
   participatory processes, mapping. This      tect opens up novel solutions when
                                                                                               a dummy of a new shaving foam holder
   part of the work is potentially time con-   she recasts ‘a social housing project’
                                                                                               and much more difficult to get a han-
   suming. In complex systems such as          as ‘an opportunity to new ways for dif-
                                                                                               dle on complex services and systems
   cities this process of data gathering can   ferent communities to live together’.
                                                                                               where many people are involved. Still,
   easily take many months.                    Similarly, a service designer enables
                                                                                               designers will ask users to play through
                                               new experiences when he considers a
>> Reframing the needs of users: inevita-                                                      different scenarios, for example with
                                               patient as a person who has unique ca-
   bly designers make choices about what                                                       the help of LEGO bricks and figurines,
                                               pabilities to maintain his or her quality
   and who to include in their studies and                                                     or an improvised game board. The
                                               of life, rather than as a deviance from
   how to understand the purpose of the                                                        feedback that is generated from these
                                               normalcy. In framing challenges in new
   (service) system in the first place. This                                                   experiences halfway between concept
                                               ways the scope of design thinking is al-
   is not so much a separate step in a                                                         and solution is then an input for an-
                                               ways fundamentally critical.
   fixed process as a designerly instinct                                                      other iteration in the design process.
Working with Wicked Problems (KBFoundation, 2012)
Working with Wicked Problems (KBFoundation, 2012)
Working with Wicked Problems (KBFoundation, 2012)
Working with Wicked Problems (KBFoundation, 2012)
Working with Wicked Problems (KBFoundation, 2012)
Working with Wicked Problems (KBFoundation, 2012)
Working with Wicked Problems (KBFoundation, 2012)
Working with Wicked Problems (KBFoundation, 2012)
Working with Wicked Problems (KBFoundation, 2012)
Working with Wicked Problems (KBFoundation, 2012)
Working with Wicked Problems (KBFoundation, 2012)
Working with Wicked Problems (KBFoundation, 2012)
Working with Wicked Problems (KBFoundation, 2012)
Working with Wicked Problems (KBFoundation, 2012)
Working with Wicked Problems (KBFoundation, 2012)
Working with Wicked Problems (KBFoundation, 2012)

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Working with Wicked Problems (KBFoundation, 2012)

  • 2. 2 Working with wicked problems Working with wicked problems Acknowledgements A publication by In 2011 the King Baudouin Foundation organised a training seminar to familiarize invited the King Baudouin Foundation, staff members of European foundations with new developments in tackling so-called rue Brederodestraat 21, 1000 Brussels ‘messy’, ‘intractable’ or ‘wicked’ problems, such as the obesity epidemic, poverty, and many environmental challenges. Typically these are issues that resist easy classification. They are Author ambiguous and hard to pin down because they seem to consist of many partial, but interrelated Philippe Vandenbroeck, shiftN challenges. Costs and benefits of tackling the problem are hard to determine. But intervention is needed to avoid the problem spinning even more out of control. Coordination King Baudouin Foundation The seminar brought together a number of thought leaders who illuminated a palette of Luc Tayart de Borms approaches to deal with complexity. To facilitate knowledge sharing among all interested Gerrit Rauws parties, KBF requested Philippe Vandenbroeck, coordinator of the seminar, Tinne Vandensande to develop an accessible and attractive report bringing together important learnings and take-away messages on working with wicked problems. Layout Kaligram The author gratefully acknowledges the stimulus received from colleagues and friends: Kim Becher, Janis Birkeland, Marshall Clemens, Rachel Dechenne, Michiel Dehaene, Drawings on pages 25, 28, 29, 31, 34, Jo Goossens, Kalle Halding, Barbara Heinzen, Luc Hoebeke, Masahiro Kakuwa, Jos Mertens, and 37: F. Point – © Kaligram 2012 Richard Normann (†), Kris Ooms, Henrietta Palmer, Herman Van Campenhout, Wim Van den Hende, Paola Vigano’, Elli Verhulst, Angela Wilkinson, and Alain Wouters. This publication can be downloaded free of charge from www.kbs-frb.be Legal deposit: D/2893/2012/28 ISBN-13: 978-90-5130-797-9 EAN: 9789051307979 Every year the King Baudouin Foundation supports around 1,500 projects and citizens committed to building a better society. We organise debates on important social issues, November 2012 share knowledge and research results via (free) publications and encourage philanthropy. We aim to make a lasting contribution to justice, democracy and respect for diversity. The King Baudouin Foundation is independent and pluralistic. We operate out of Brussels, but are active at regional, Belgian, European and international level. The Foundation was created in 1976, to mark the 25th anniversary of King Baudouin’s reign. The King Baudouin Foundation thanks the National Lottery and all other donors for their invaluable generosity. www.kbs-frb.be Follow us on Facebook | Twitter | YouTube
  • 3. Working with wicked problems 3 contents Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 1 guiding idea: wicked problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 What are wicked problems anyway? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Why is it important to recognize wicked problems? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 What are the risks related to thinking in terms of wicked problems? . . . . . . . 12 3 ways of dealing with complexity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Ideas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Dialogue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 All together now . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 5 ways of knowing and engaging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 A/ Soft Systems Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 B/ Transition Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 C/ Future Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 D/ Design Thinking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 E/ Appreciative Inquiry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 7 rules of thumb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 1 - Mix flexibility and rigour . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 2 - Pursue goal-oriented incrementalism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 3 - Think abundance, not scarcity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 4 - Develop a view of the whole . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 5 - Reframe wicked problems into wicked opportunities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 6 – Create space for self-organisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 7 - Have patience with power, but drive it hard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
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  • 5. Working with wicked problems 5 Introduction This is a story about dealing smartly with complexity. But it’s also a story about acknowl- edging the limits of smartness. We deal with friction in our personal and professional environment all the time. Problems can be persistent features of the way we interact with our environment, or they can emerge unexpectedly. Often we rely on patience and routine to get the friction out of the way. In times of crisis we easily resort to improvisation or strict command-and-control. Smartness starts with taking a step back and acknowledging that a problem is not some objective given that determines a particular response. Rather than a clearly identifiable feature of our environment a problem emerges from the way we understand and interact with that environment. Management theorist Keith Grint sees the ability ‘to consider not what is the situation, but how it is situated’ as an essential quality of people in leadership positions. Arguably there is a lot to be gained by framing friction as ‘simplicity’. Edward De Bono is probably right when he argues that trying to make things simple is good for us. Ideally, he would like to see a National Simplicity Campaign in every country. Recently, Dr. Atul Gawande has written an eloquent ‘checklist manifesto’: a plea to rely on straightforward tools for structuring and coordinating tasks in stressful and volatile situations. Without denying the usefulness of these strategies in this booklet we will take the op- posite approach. We will assume that we are dealing with a reality that is particularly slippery and resists responses fixed as clear schemata. To that end we will connect to a way of understanding friction that has emerged over the last four decades. It is from the 1970s onward that people started to talk about ‘wicked’, ‘messy’ or ‘intractable’ problems. Behind that novel and slightly provocative language was a recognition that ‘problems’ can often not be seen in isolation. Increasingly also decision makers were ready to accept that science does not always have the answers and that other stakeholders (with other worldviews) have a role to play in crafting ways forward to deal with policy challenges.
  • 6. 6 Working with wicked problems So, what are ways forward if we have the courage to accept complexity and conflict? Here we will argue that there are basically three approaches, or rather three rich traditions, that may inspire us in working with wicked problems. We will refer to these traditions as ‘Ideas’, ‘Dialogue’ and ‘Design’. They connect to the power of thinking interdependences, of investing in social relationships and of visualising new worlds. Luckily problem solvers of all sorts have, during the last few decades, created a range of sophisticated methodologies that bring together the strengths of these three approach- es in different ways. Here we will discuss five: Soft Systems Methodology, Transition Management, Future Scenarios, Design Thinking, and Appreciative Enquiry. The list is by no means meant to be exhaustive. Each of these ways of knowing and engaging has a distinctive scope and spirit. But all of them have been developed to find pragmatic ways forward in dealing with knotty, confusing and contested problematic situations. In a final section we will take a step back and try to understand what these five ap- proaches teach us about working with wicked problems. These lessons have been for- mulated as seven rules of thumb. They are stimulating and sobering at the same time. The good news is that, yes, we can acknowledge messiness and yet rely on powerful and smart levers to improve our predicament. But diehard ‘optimisers’ and ‘heroic leaders’ will be perturbed by the message that where smartness stops persistence and humility take over. Final solutions do not exist, should not exist. Working with wicked problems inevitably means grappling with paradoxes and tensions. ■
  • 7. Working with wicked problems / 1 guiding idea: wicked problems 7 1 guiding idea: wicked problems
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  • 9. Working with wicked problems / 1 guiding idea: wicked problems 9 Summary Acknowledging the existence of wicked problems means admitting to face societal chal- lenges for which no definitive answer exists. Wicked problems are structurally complex so that it is hard to say where a given problem stops and another one begins. And stakeholders will frame these challenges in different ways so that a one-size-fits-all solution is highly unlikely. Thinking in terms of wicked problems opens up a novel repertoire of strategies to come to grips with these issues. However, we should guard against getting carried away by our ability to recognise and deal with complexity and conflict. Even in this complicated world ‘simple’ solutions remain possible. What are wicked problems anyway? When talking about the many societal They wrote: Key characteristics of wicked problems challenges we are currently facing, peo- “They are ‘wicked’ problems, whereas sci- >> There is no definitive formulation of ple increasingly describe them as ‘wicked ence has developed to deal with ‘tame’ prob- a wicked problem. The framing of a problems’. The notion has an obvious neg- lems. Policy problems cannot be definitively wicked problem can always be con- ative resonance. Someone who is wicked described. Moreover, in a pluralistic society tested. is not to be trusted. We can’t really be sure there is nothing like the undisputable public about the intentions of a wicked person. >> Solutions to wicked problems are good; there is no objective definition of eq- So how can a problem be ‘wicked’? not true-or-false, but better or worse uity; policies that respond to social problems from a given point of view. It was in the 1970s that people started to cannot be meaningfully correct or false; and talk about ‘wicked’, ‘swampy’ or ‘messy’ it makes no sense to talk about ‘optimal so- >> Every attempt to intervene alters problems, partly in response to the turbu- lutions’ to social problems (…). Even worse, the problematic situation in signifi- lence of the 1960s (remember the threat there are no ‘solutions’ in the sense of defini- cant ways. of nuclear annihilation, the Vietnam de- tive and objective answers.” >> Wicked problems do not have an bacle, the student revolt, the emergence What Rittel and Webber pointed out was enumerable set of potential solu- of an environmental agenda). Horst Rit- that in many cases it is better to acknowl- tions. tel and Marvin Webber (a design theorist edge upfront that science is ill-equipped and an urban planner, respectively) wrote >> Every wicked problem can be con- to tackle social challenges. There are two a paper in 1973 with the forbidding title sidered to be a symptom of another basic reasons for the wickedness of these “Dilemmas in a General Theory of Plan- problem. problems: complexity and conflict. These ning” in which they argued that scientific problems are ambiguous and hard to pin approaches to ‘problems of social policy’ down because they seem to consist of were bound to fail because of the nature many partial, but interrelated challenges. of these problems. So it is hard to tell what button to push, or what lever to pull to make them go away. And the people affected by these problems will have very different views on what the nature of the problem is and how it can be tackled. So, a solution that can be considered ‘optimal’ from an objec- tive, impartial point of view does not exist.
  • 10. 10 Working with wicked problems / 1 guiding idea: wicked problems
  • 11. Working with wicked problems / 1 guiding idea: wicked problems 11 Why is it important to recognize wicked problems? First it is important to acknowledge that there is not an objective thing out there to which we can point and say: “This is a wicked problem”. A ‘wicked problem’ is not a ‘thing’ but a social construct. It is a particular way of looking at the world, of framing the challenges we are currently facing. What then do we have to gain by taking this stance? At a philosophical level we can argue that framing challenges in a different way opens up a novel repertoire of solu- tion strategies. Sir Geoffrey Vickers, an eminent systems thinker, thought that And if we are aware of the conflicts be- On a more practical level, framing issues problems are only dangerous in relation- tween world views in which the issue is as wicked problems can be helpful to pro- ship to what people can see, value and do: enmeshed, then some way of accomodat- gramme managers and strategists in organi- “A trap is a trap only for creatures which ing (if only temporarily) these differences sations that are dealing with complex soci- cannot solve the problem that it sets.” So, needs to be part and parcel of our strategy etal challenges on a day-to-day basis. These if we can fashion ourselves a set of tools to move ahead. So, observing the world people will be asked to develop a ‘theory that allow us to approach complex chal- through a ‘wicked problem’ lens may make of change’ that convinces their bosses and lenges from different angles, then this us a lot smarter, more realistic in our ex- boards to allocate resources to deal with may increase our chances to find a way pectations, and more alert to the human these issues. They will have to present the forward. More specifically, thinking in sensitivities embedded in complex chal- challenge, the change they would like to terms of ‘wicked problems’ will lead us to lenges. As Jean Monnet, one of the found- see and the approach that might be taken approaches that acknowledge intercon- ing fathers of the European Union used to by the organisation to make a positive dif- nectedness between many different par- say: “If you are faced with a big problem, ference. The ideas and methods included in tial problems right from the start. make it bigger.” That is what thinking in this little guide may be helpful in elaborating terms of wicked problems helps us to do. those ‘business cases’.
  • 12. 12 Working with wicked problems / 1 guiding idea: wicked problems What are the risks related to thinking in terms of wicked problems? Framing the challenges facing us as wicked problems is looking at the world through a particular lens. Like all lenses, this one has its strengths and its limita- tions. It alerts us to complexity and con- flict but in doing so may obscure simple and pragmatic ways of making a positive difference. Sometimes it may be quite ap- propriate to make a big problem bigger. But at other times it is helpful to eliminate all the clutter and reduce the challenge to its barest essence. Jack Sim, successful entrepreneur and President of the World Toilet Organisation, has built a powerful advocacy organisation around the ‘simple’ given that at least 2 billion people on this planet are suffering from serious health problems because they do not have ac- cess to adequate sanitation. It’s a glaring hides a very complex problem, involving Further reading problem for which there is an obvious ‘fix’: new technologies, habits of mind, hous- >> RITTEL, H.W.J, WEBBER, M.M. (1973) to get more flush toilets out there. This ing regulations, etc. So it is probably not Dilemmas in a General Theory of Plan- uncomplicated framing helps to focus an either-or story. Whenever possible we ning, Policy Sciences, 4, 155-169. energy and attention. No doubt, beyond should be sensitive to wickedness and this straightforward, linear perspective simplicity at the same time. ■
  • 13. Working with wicked problems / 3 ways of dealing with complexity 13 3 ways of dealing with complexity
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  • 15. Working with wicked problems / 3 ways of dealing with complexity 15 Once we are attuned to a ‘wicked’ per- For now we suggest taking a step back spective the question is how we might and suspending our thinking in terms of actively engage with it. ‘Actively engag- ‘tools’ and ‘methodologies’. Let us first re- ing’ means: building up an understanding flect on three key ways to come to grips of the challenge, developing strategies with conflict and complexity. We’ll call to intervene, getting our hands dirty to them ‘Ideas’, ‘Dialogue’ and ‘Design’. make a positive difference and assessing the impacts of our work. Although this suggests a neat ‘plan-do-check’ cycle, we may be suffering here from the limitations of our language. Later we will see that the boundary between ‘doing’ and ‘thinking’ in dealing with wicked problems is not al- ways so clear-cut. Ideas Whilst we can’t solve all our challenges ancient Greek thought elements of a sys- entered a familiar repertoire of problem by sitting behind a desk and thinking, tems approach can be identified. solving skills. In fact, any programme the world of abstract ideas continues to manager who has sketched out a ‘diagram Fundamental for a systems approach is be an important inspiration to deal with of forces’ when pondering the connec- the question how an entity (any kind of real-world complexity. More particularly, tions between many themes and trends organism, or organisation) can secure its over the last six or seven decades a way affecting a certain overarching issue has viability in a changing environment. In re- of thinking has emerged in response to been engaging in a form of systems think- sponse, systems science has developed a the growing awareness that there are ing. Similarly, we have grown quite used to language and a set of tools to get a grip on exceedingly complex systems that mod- thinking in terms of feedback mechanisms how our world is composed of many in- ern science can never quite grasp. Rather when considering why systems behave as terconnected drivers and subsystems (its than a neatly defined discipline ‘systems they do: inertia is linked to dampening structure), how it behaves over time (its science’ is an interdisciplinary field that feedbacks (the ‘thermostat effect’), whilst dynamics) and how organisms of all kinds has emerged from the convergence of, a runaway dynamic is easily associated to absorb this variety. amongst others, ideas from neuroscience, reinforcing loops that move systems ever mathematics, and biology. One could ar- There is no need to be intimidated by further away from a stable equilibrium. gue that it is not at all new as already in systems thinking as, to an extent, it has
  • 16. 16 Working with wicked problems / 3 ways of dealing with complexity For aspiring systems thinkers it is worth- can start to evaluate where it is most ben- commodation between different points of while to bear in mind that the whole field eficial to intervene to improve that situ- view. The distinction between ‘hard’ and is traversed by an important conceptual ation. This approach could be said to be ‘soft’ systems thinking can be summarized distinction between so-called ‘hard’ and positivist. The ‘soft’ system thinker, how- then as follows: in hard systems thinking ‘soft’ approaches. A ‘hard’ systems think- ever, starts from the assumption that an we construct models ‘of’ the world, whilst er is primarily interested in developing objective representation of reality is not in the soft approach we construct models (quantitative or qualitative) models of a possible. Her stance is constructivist. The ‘for’ the world. The point is not to build problematic part of the world. These mod- point of view of the observer always comes sophisticated ‘pictures of reality’ but to els are then considered to be an objective, into play. In a soft systems approach the work with pragmatic devices to make our more or less accurate picture of that slice focus is not on the models, but on the way disagreements explicit, identify common of reality. Once we have that picture we we use these models to come to an ac- ground and take action.
  • 17. Working with wicked problems / 3 ways of dealing with complexity 17 Dialogue Dialogue is not a recognised discipline (as Quantum physicist David Bohm took the nity, small or large. As long as people do systems science) or practice (as design, practice of dialogue to a point that is as not feel accountable for the wellbeing of see below). It is something we engage in far removed from a preformatted ‘partici- their community, defining and studying on a regular basis, effortlessly. However, patory process’ as we can imagine. To him problems will be of little help. Social capi- when grappling with wicked problems we dialogue did not serve a particular, fixed tal enables what Block refers to as ‘cho- are aiming for a dialogue that has a par- purpose. The conversation may at any mo- sen accountability’, when people step up ticular quality. Probably, we have all expe- ment have a purpose, but for him it was to bring an alternative future into being. rienced at some point in our lives that a crucial not to hold on to it. Dialogue for Dialogue is the only vehicle that is able to deep conversation may lead us to quite Bohm was a sort of meta-exploration, a sustain that kind of transformation. a different place from which we started. joint practice of wanting to suspend judg- Dialogue opens up a space to deal with Suddenly there is the feeling that a trap- ment at all times during our interaction. complexity that is very different from a door opens below our feet and we are mo- He saw dialogue as a way to plant seeds, systems approach. The two approaches mentarily suspended above an unfamiliar to build a capacity for action that might can be complementary but they can also but exciting mental landscape. We feel come to fruition, or might not. be at odds with one another. A systems that we are really connecting with our in- All this may sound terribly esoteric. But approach is very often diagnostic in na- terlocutors and that we understand things maybe it becomes more approachable ture. It seeks to understand why things that we haven’t been able to grasp before. when we translate it into a contemporary don’t work. And starting from those in- Context often matters. A very long train jargon that talks about building social sights it identifies measures to remedy ride or a remote location seem to bring capital. Author Peter Block sees dealing the problematic situation. Dialogue, as about these experiences more easily. with wicked challenges not as focusing on we understand it here, is much more ori- deficiencies and fear but as building social ented towards liberating the potential fabric. Problems do not exist in a vacuum. for change of a community. It builds on They are always embedded in a commu- strengths and desires.
  • 18. 18 Working with wicked problems / 3 ways of dealing with complexity Design A third and very different way to tackle complexity is design. Designers are peo- ple who are able to synthesise novel, tangible forms (products, houses, cities) – and increasingly also intangible processes such as services – out of the messiness of daily reality. They are particularly good at forging connections between seem- One of the defining features of a design Designers bring very valuable skills to any ingly unrelated issues. As such design is approach is the almost activist energy it team that is dealing with wicked problems. increasingly seen as a way of thinking that seems to generate from its practitioners. Importantly they also inject a unique, is fundamentally different from the induc- A good designer is not easily intimidated positive kind of energy in the process of tive reasoning of science and deductive by complexity. Unlike a systems thinker, grappling with important challenges. Last schemata of logic. who will take her time to pause and ana- but not least, their capacity to suggest a Designers make use of concepts but they lyse, a designer will start to sketch almost new reality through physical models and are not merely ‘thinkers’. Learning expert immediately. There is an intimate cou- drawings can function as a unique catalyst Donald Schön referred to them as ‘reflec- pling between the motor movement of for change. tive practitioners’: people who are able the hand across the paper and the emer- to ‘reflect on action so as to engage in a gence of an intellectual strategy to deal process of continuous learning’. In design with the challenge at hand. Giorgio Vasari, practice it is hard to say where the think- the 16th century painter and architect, ar- ing stops and the action begins. It is a con- gued that a ‘concept’ implied a movement stant, tightly meshed cycle of observation, of the mind. To him the art of drawing was ideation, prototyping and testing. In that a form of thinking. Designers have not lost process, designers not only create things this ability to think with their hands. but they also create new knowledge.
  • 19. Working with wicked problems / 3 ways of dealing with complexity 19 All together now Ideas, dialogue and design provide three Susan van’t Klooster has shown in her different repertoires of thinking and act- research how difficult it sometimes is for ing when confronted with wicked prob- foresight practitioners (a particular brand lems. We can see them as different types of system thinkers) and urban designers to of knowing. Action research pioneer John productively work together. These differ- Heron referred to propositional knowing ent communities seem to speak the same (ideas), experiential and presentational language but different meanings may hide knowing (dialogue), and practical know- behind the same words. Furthermore, ing (design), respectively. They are not when it comes to creating a setting for rigidly compartmentalized, however. Sys- authentic dialogue, the professional ex- tem thinkers may embody a designerly, pertise of systems thinkers and designers action-oriented approach in their prac- may get in the way. Nevertheless, people tice. Designers will rely on concepts when whose mandate it is to engage with wick- developing their proposals. Both may rely ed problems do well to consider how each on forms of dialogue in the process. Fur- of these fundamentally different ways of thermore, it is not always necessary to Bringing different skill sets together also grappling with complexity may contrib- have these three ingredients in the prob- creates its own kind of complexity. It’s ute, in their specific settings, to making lem solving mix. not a given that they will blend to create a difference that matters. It is worthwhile something that is more than the sum of to seek synergies between these different the parts. We have already pointed out approaches. Ignoring these synergies may that a systems perspective and a dialogue come at a high societal cost. practice are not necessarily aligned.
  • 20. 20 Working with wicked problems / 3 ways of dealing with complexity Conclusion >> We have distinguished three very dif- >> These different repertoires are not Further reading ferent ways of thinking and acting to rigidly compartmentalised. An indi- >> BOHM, D. (2007) On Dialogue, Rout- come to grips with wicked problems: vidual practitioner may be skillful in ledge, London. Ideas (systems thinking), Dialogue and combining all three in helping people Design. to grapple with conflict and complex- >> BLOCK, P. (2008) Community. The ity. However, bringing these different Structure of Belonging, Berret-Koe- >> Systems thinking essentially tries to skills together creates its own kind of hler Publishers, San Francisco. understand how entities can maintain complexity. Nevertheless, it is always their existence in a changing environ- >> KOLKO, J. (2010) ‘Abductive think- worthwhile to assess how each of ment. ‘Hard’ systems thinkers inter- ing and sensemaking: the drivers of these different repertoires may con- vene in the system’s architecture as design synthesis’, in: Design Issues, tribute to making a positive difference engineers. Soft systems thinkers cre- Volume 26, Number 1, Winter, 15-28. to wicked problems. ■ ate a context to increase the system’s >> VAN ‘T KLOOSTER, S. (2007) Toe- capacity for learning and action. komstverkenning: ambities en de >> Dialogue is a vehicle for creating social praktijk. Een ethnografische studie capital. Social capital in its turn is the naar de productie van toekomstkennis fuel which drives a community’s capac- bij het Ruimtelijk Planbureau (RPB), ity for transformation. Uitgeverij Eburon, Delft. >> Design is a skill to materially extract the shape of an alternative reality from a very messy context. As a rule design- ers bring a positive kind of energy to the process of grappling with impor- tant challenges.
  • 21. Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging 21 5 ways of knowing and engaging
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  • 23. Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging 23 In this section we will discuss five coher- Given the open-ended nature of wicked support structured and effective learning. ent approaches to tackle wicked prob- problems it will also be clear that none It’s not about reaching final solutions, but lems. They embody in various ways the of these approaches provides us with a about being able to continuously adapt to three key ways of dealing with complexity neat, stepwise template. When dealing changing circumstances. The discussions that we discussed in the previous section. with wicked problems we are in a terri- necessarily have to remain very brief. In- Obviously this is not an exhaustive list tory beyond shrinkwrapped tools. We will terested readers are invited to follow the of tools and methodologies to engage in have to shape interventions in a creative pointers to additional literature that are complex problem solving. Some of these and context-sensitive way. As we will see, supplied at the end of each section. approaches have been around for a long all of the proposed approaches boil es- time, others have emerged more recently. sentially down to different strategies to A/ Soft Systems Methodology Summary SSM is an approach that is able to integrate systems ideas, dialogue and action-orientation into a coherent whole. It proposes a disciplined process to create clarity in a complex, prob- lematic situation. Soft Systems Methodology allows us to step back from the messiness of the actual challenge and to think about ways of organising in an idealised realm. It is a process that takes differences between the world-views of people affected by the situation explicitly into account. The purpose is to come to a joint agreement about what actions are desirable and feasible that may lead to an improvement, however modest, in the situation. Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) is an action”. SSM has not been designed to a very different understanding. What SSM approach that is both very simple and very solve the world’s greatest problems. But it does is to make these differences in fram- sophisticated. Peter Checkland, who was can be of great help to a group of people ing very explicit and then to seek an ac- a key figure in its development, captured who jointly want to agree on how to deal commodation between these differences the approach’s raison d’être very succinct- with a problematic situation they are all in deciding upon actions to bring about ly in the title of his last book: “learning for affected by but of which they may have improvement.
  • 24. 24 Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging The trick is that SSM asks its practitioners ent purpose. Clearly, these models do not The diagram on the opposite page, origi- to leave the complexity of the real world describe the real world, as each of them nally developed by Peter Checkland, cap- for a while and think about how we might is based on one pure worldview. They are tures this basic logic: the discovery and want to act in an idealised realm. Suppose just tools to explore the problematic situ- articulation of a problematic situation in that we are confronted with a problem- ation in an organised way. the real world (‘finding out’) leads to a atic situation in a health care system. SSM phase of conceptual modelling in an ide- Once we have those models we can use asks us to step away from the concrete alised realm (‘systems thinking’). The com- them as a source of questions about the messiness of the particular health system parison between the conceptual (activity) real-world situation. The idealized activity we are studying and to think about the models and the problematic situation pro- models can be contrasted with the actual purpose of that system from one specific vides a compass for feasible and desirable care system and from the gap between vantage point at a time. We might, for changes, which leads to action to improve the two may emerge ideas for change and instance, argue that the care system ex- the situation (‘taking action’). improvement. Obviously, the differences ists ‘to return people to a state of physi- in worldview will continue to exist and cal and mental normalcy’ as quickly and the distinct activity models will make sure efficiently as possible. Other people may The power of SSM derives from a num- we will be quite aware of them. The chal- put forward that the system is there ‘to ber of unique features: lenge is then to find changes that are both help people to maintain quality of life desirable (given these models) but also >> The willingness to make differences in when confronted with an illness’. Clearly, feasible for people in this particular situ- framing of problematic situations very two very different, but valid purposes that ation. That is a process of seeking accom- explicit: SSM assumes upfront that might underpin the functioning of a care modation. Depending upon the urgency clashing worldviews are always pre- system (and maybe there are more pur- of the situation and the ambition level of sent in human affairs. Rather than pre- poses to be found). If we were to consider the participants, accommodation may be tending these differences aren’t there, how the care system would have to func- weak or strong. The option to do nothing it takes the disagreement as a source tion to realise those different purposes, is not warranted. So even if accommoda- of insight, energy and creative tension. we would realise that this would involve tion is weak, at least some action towards different kinds of activities. For example, >> The temporary move away from the improvement will be taken. Maybe that in the former case there ought to be pro- messiness of the real situation: by pull- will build some trust in the capacity of fessionals in the system that busy them- ing the enquiry away from the actual the multi-stakeholder group to jointly selves with diagnostically assessing how situation and thinking about it from an deal with the problematic situation. If it large the gap between the patient’s situ- idealised, single-worldview perspec- does, then after a while another soft sys- ation and ‘normality’ is. In the latter case tive, SSM creates a more relaxed and tems exercise may be undertaken which we would have people (not necessarily disciplined setting to deal with urgent will hopefully lead to more far-reaching professionals) who would be engaged in challenges. accommodation. And so a soft systems helping those with an illness (not neces- approach gives impetus to a social learn- sarily labelled as ‘patients’) to build skills ing cycle that builds some understanding to play a role in their own recovery pro- about the wicked problem and trust to cess. What SSM requires us to do then is jointly intervene in it over time. to build a separate activity model for a care system underpinned by each differ-
  • 25. Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging 25 taking action The problem Action to improve Definition situation: the situation of feasible unstructured 1 7 desirable changes Finding out 6 2 Comparison The problem of 4 with 2 situation: expressed 5 Real world Systems thinking orld about the real w Systems Thinking 3 System definition expressed from 4 Activity models a particular worldview
  • 26. 26 Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging >> The focus on activities rather than lematic situation’ we refer to a slice In terms of implementation, an SSM- organisations: in wicked problems re- of the everyday flux of events that we based project may take anything between lated to human institutions people will recognise as being in need of improve- an afternoon and 6 months. Given the very often be tempted to think in or- ment but of which we still need to make requirement that only people participate ganisational terms. However, as a rule sense. ‘Problem’ implies a well-defined who have first-hand experience of the this is very political territory and will given that asks for a ‘solution’. Similary problematic situation and who can take be seen as very threatening to those SSM aims for ‘accommodation’ not responsibility for intervening in it, the who are at risk to lose power. By focus- ‘consensus’. The former is more fluid number of participants will usually vary ing on an organisation’s purpose (its and temporary than the latter. between 10 and a few dozen. essential contribution, seen through Above we have briefly discussed the or- the lens of a particular worldview) thodox soft systems approach as it has and the activities that are needed to Like any methodology, SSM also has been described and practised by its origi- fulfill that purpose, the enquiry is mo- relative weaknesses: nal developers. However, there are many mentarily isolated from organisational >> The focus on feasibility: in SSM the elements in the approach (for example power play. Only later, once it is clear interventions are limited by what is thinking in terms of activities rather than what activities are needed, we can ask deemed culturally and politically feasi- organisations) that will be valuable in oth- ‘who will contribute to what action?’ ble. They do not emerge from a vision- er ‘wicked’ settings as well. As a rule there are many organisation- ary perspective that radically wants to al configurations that fit the require- transcend the existing challenges. ments posed by a given activity model. This creates space for accommodation. >> Process-wise it is sometimes difficult to convince participants to go along with >> The focus on local, pragmatic action: discipline of developing multiple activ- the approach has in the first place ity models each of which is associated been developed as a way to help peo- with a different purpose for the system. ple that have first-hand experience of In acute problematic situations people a problematic situation to take steps are often so hungry for structure that towards dealing with the situation. It is they are happy to stop after a first ac- those people themselves that have to tivity model has been generated. Going decide (and hence take accountability beyond that to explore other world- for) the scope of the accommodation views (and hence to increase complexi- they want to mutually agree on. This ty) may require considerable persuasion ensures buy-in and commitment, even Further reading skills from a facilitator. if it is only for small steps. >> CHECKLAND, P., POULTER, J. (2008) >> Whilst it is founded on a set of simple, >> The importance of language: In SSM we Learning for Action. A Short Definitive clear ideas, SSM embodies a logic that talk about a ‘problematic situation’ not Account of Soft Systems Methodology, people do not easily make their own. It about a ‘problem’. The difference is sub- and Its Use Practitioners, Teachers and may take a while before they really get tle but important. When we say ‘prob- Students, Wiley, Chichester. the logic of the approach.
  • 27. Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging 27 B/ Transition Management Summary Transition Management is an approach to guide big systems (in health care, agriculture, mo- As a rule they are difficult to change (be- cause they exhibit lock-in). A landscape bility, etc.) towards a more sustainable equilibrium. However, despite the label it is less about is the wider context that influences the ‘managing’ than about creating the right conditions for change to happen. Three elements regime. A niche, finally, is an emerging innovation that is seeking to destabilise play a crucial role in a transition process: a guiding image of a more sustainable future, a or adapt the regime. For instance, in our collection of innovative experiments that explore the boundary of the possible and an infra- personal mobility system the regime piv- ots around the petrol-powered car. Today structure to extract and diffuse the learning from those experiences. Transition management this regime is under pressure from various relies on creative incubators (‘arenas’) to spearhead these processes. The approach bundles a developments: climate change, local air quality, congestion. The electric car could very rich experience in dealing with complexity, participation and innovation into a coher- be considered as a maturing niche that ent framework. However, it is by no means a cookbook approach but requires creativity and might challenge the preeminence of the internal combustion engine. The interplay stamina to turn vision into hands-on realities. between landscape pressures and impuls- es from niches may create conditions for In contrast with Soft Systems Methodol- management (Plan C), sustainable build- large socio-technical systems to change. ogy, developed to guide relatively small ing and living (DUWOBO) and agriculture Transition Management aims to create groups of people in dealing with local (The New Food Frontier). the right conditions for change to happen. wicked problems, Transition Management Transition Management relies on an in- In that sense, the very notion of ‘manag- focuses on radical changes needed in teresting framework to understand these ing’ a transition is somewhat paradoxical. large systems, such as regional or national large-scale change processes. The so- People engaged in bringing transitions health care, mobility, agriculture and en- called ‘multi-level perspective’ (MLP) sees about are more in the role of a ‘midwife’ ergy systems. Transition Management transitions arise when developments at than of a controlling ‘engineer’. has the ambition to change structures, different scales – landscape (macro), re- practices and culture that are deeply en- Three elements play a crucial role in a gime (meso), niches (micro) – reinforce trenched in our society in an attempt to transition practice. First there is the devel- each other (see diagram on the next move towards a more sustainable future. opment of a visionary long-term perspec- page). Regimes are the dominant way That, clearly, is a ‘wicked’ context. In Flan- tive on what a sustainable system might to do things, embodied by familiar infra- ders transition processes have been initi- look like. structures, institutions and worldviews. ated in the area of sustainable materials
  • 28. 28 Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging Landscape Patchwork of regimes Niches (novelty) That vision is not a fixed image of a de- Practically, a transition management effort It is important to realise that a transition sired future that needs to be shared by relies on a ‘transition arena’ as a participa- process can never be a cookbook ap- all but rather a broad canvas intended to tory instrument. It is a temporary incuba- proach. It is a complex strategy to deal with inspire and energise a broad stakeholder tor populated by a medium-sized group of wickedness. It’s a multi-actor, multi-level, arena. That is another key element: an creative and concerned people (so-called multi-phase and multi-pattern process. evolving field of innovative experiments, ‘frontrunners’) from different sectors (con- In essence the approach revolves around supported by diverse coalitions of actors, nected to the transition focus), with a mix ensuring some degree of fit between a oriented towards learning by doing. These of competences (systems thinking, com- broad, systemic vision and a collection of experiments are not so much about solv- municating, initiating) and networks. They probably very different experiments. It’s an ing particular problems in a community, are supported by process and content ex- exercise in balancing between chaos and or market-driven introduction of a new perts. The arena serves to create trust, ex- order. That has to be a participatory sense- technology but about pushing the en- change ideas, dig deep into the issues and making process that is inevitably traversed velope, and in that process seeing what shape an engaging future agenda. This eas- by uncertainty, new insights and evolving works and what doesn’t. The third crucial ily takes a year, sometimes more. Once the power relationships. In this fluid environ- element is a ‘learning network’ to help agenda (which can be a single, overarching ment the three pivotal approaches of sys- identify new opportunities, to strengthen vision, or a looser collection of images) is tems thinking (envisioning new system ongoing experiments and to extend the felt to be rich and engaging enough, it can architectures), dialogue (joint learning and buy-in for the change process. be shared with a wider community. Then sense-making) and design (experimenting) begins the hard work to try and turn these are very much intertwined. ideas into tangible experiments.
  • 29. Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging 29 Problem structuring, establishment of the Strategic sphere transition arena and envisioning Developing Evaluating, coalitions monitoring and Tactical sphere and learning transition- agendas Mobilising actors and executing projects and Operational sphere experiments The diagram above (after Loorbach) visual- together. The paradoxical task for transi- socio-technical experiments. These quite ises this interplay between these strategic tion champions is to force “radical change different transition philosophies do not (envisioning), operational (experimenting) in incremental steps”. have to be compartmentalised (but in ac- and tactical (building coalitions; learning) tual practice they often are). Given the complexity and scope of transi- spheres. tion efforts it is very likely that regional or A key question that bedevils many transi- national governments play an important tion initiatives is the relationship between role as funders, conveners and also as cli- innovators (niches) and regime players. If ents for new policy ideas. Orthodox Tran- they join forces in an early phase of the sition Management is, as a rule, strongly Further reading transition there is a possibility for creating dependent on established institutions necessary buy-in with established actors. even if only for receiving a mandate to >> LOORBACH, D. (2007), Transition But the risk is that the process is stalled innovate. The ‘transition’ label has been Management: New Mode of Govern- because of conflict and power play. In the claimed by more activist groups as well. ance for Sustainable Development, alternative case the lack of broad support Transition Towns, for example, is a social International Books. may hamper innovation efforts. There movement that seeks to equip local com- >> HENNEMAN, P., LOORBACH, D., is no right or wrong approach to this. A munities to deal with future effects of TIMMERMAN, D. (2012) Burger- soft systems practitioner would simply scarcity of fossil fuels and climate change. meesterboek. Lokaal en duurzaam in- observe that initially the space for accom- The focus is on empowering citizens to noveren voor iedereen, Van Gorcum, modation will be smaller when frontrun- adopt new practices and lifestyles rather Amsterdam. ners and vested interests try to transition than on creating a setting favourable to
  • 30. 30 Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging C/ Future Scenarios Summary Scenarios are basically multiple stories about how the future might unfold. They help in un- derstanding the uncertainty that goes with an open future. But the future is not empty: understanding it is also an invitation to intervene. Scenarios are wonderful containers for breakthrough ideas. They can also act as launching pads for action and experimentation. And in environments riddled by conflict they provide a safe space for dialogue. The approach is a veritable intellectual Swiss Army knife for dealing with ‘wicked problems’. As human beings, and more specifically We need to go just a little bit beyond this open and exploratory perspective that ac- as Westerners who embrace belief in pro- basic insight to capture the essence of the knowledges uncertainty (see diagram on gress and in the power of reason to shape contemporary scenario practice. Indeed, the opposite page). the world according to our own under- distinctive of how people use future sce- The basic idea underlying the use of future standing, we happen to be interested in narios today is that these descriptions scenarios is therefore quite simple and it is the future. In response to that fascination do not occur in isolation, but in sets. The a practice that comes naturally to us. Given people have adopted or developed intel- point is not to tell just a gratuitous story the simplicity it is perhaps not surprising lectual strategies and practices to make about the future, but to develop differ- that the scenario methodology has proved sense of the not-yet-known. ent, internally consistent perspectives on to be adaptable to many different circum- what might come to pass. Hence, we are in Future scenarios are one of these devices stances and to serve a broad variety of agreement with Philip van Notten when he that have been fielded in this quest. In goals. Scenario thinking has in some views defines scenarios as “consistent and coher- fact, we are dealing here with an ancient been narrowed down to churning out 2-by- ent descriptions of alternative hypothetical practice – storytelling – that has been re- 2 matrices (defining 4 scenarios) in stand- futures that reflect different perspectives contextualised against the background of ardised workshop formats. But the reality on past, present and future developments, our desire to come to terms with the fu- of the scenario practice is more complex which can serve as a basis for action.” That ture. So scenarios revolve around a very than that. For instance, the database of the multiplicity is key as it entails a move away basic idea, namely that it is potentially European Foresight Monitoring Network from a predictive stance that sees the fu- useful to develop hypothetical descrip- contains thousands of published studies. Al- ture essentially as a unidirectional extrapo- tions of what the future might be. though it is possible to find patterns in the lation of certain trends in the past, to an
  • 31. Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging 31 Alternative futures Drivers of change Development Complexity paths way the approach has been deployed the Then we need to agree on what the purpose have effectively constructed an anten- variety remains bewildering. This flexibility of the scenario development is. What would na for us to observe and interpret our is a strength of the approach, but it is also we like our effort to achieve? One way to evolving environment with. Sometimes a potential weakness. When it is not exactly get a grip on the approach’s flexibility is the this process is also referred to as ‘hori- clear what scenarios are meant to achieve it following typology of non-exclusive goals zon scanning’. is very easy to go astray and end up with an that may be pursued with scenarios: >> ‘Windtunneling’: organisations that are end result that nobody really needs. The art >> Interpreting: the world around us is contemplating significant investments of scenario development does really reside complex, certainly when we are trying might want to test those against the in connecting clearly stated objectives with to understand long-term developments. background of possible futures. This available resources through a process that is Scenarios can be considered as a set of is similar to engineers putting scale enabling and fit-for-purpose. sophisticated lenses to observe our en- models of cars or airplanes in a wind To anchor a scenario exercise we need vironment with. Each scenario allows us tunnel to test their resilience when to agree first and foremost on a substan- to attach meaning to signals we pick up subjected to extraordinary forces. Ide- tive focus. What are the scenarios going through our interaction with the world. ally, critical decisions are robust in the to be about? That is really a matter of our For example, a certain newspaper arti- face of uncertainty. That means that choice. We are free to think about global cle may strike us as pointing to a future they perform more or less well against developments against a time horizon dec- as embodied by scenario A. Another fits whatever future scenario we might ades away, or about the future of our own rather in scenario C. And so on. So by think of. Caution is advised when deci- community in the next couple of years. developing a set of future scenarios we sions entail significant risks in any of
  • 32. 32 Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging the scenarios. In this kind of scenario organisation’s ability to shed its familiar grate various sources of knowledge and work solid research is key. ways of looking at its environment and orient experimentation. We are moving its own purpose. In management theory closely to what Sondeijker has called >> Seeking alignment: sitting together to a powerful image has emerged to cap- ‘transition scenarios’. jointly imagine alternative futures is ture that ability: ‘blue ocean strategy’. potentially a powerful and liberating ex- From the above it is obvious that scenarios Rather than competing for the same perience, particularly in settings where are an intellectual and participatory Swiss prey (in a ‘red’, blood-saturated ocean) violence and conflict have led to deep- army knife. They can be used in many dif- we are at liberty to bring to life a new seated distrust between stakeholders. ferent ways. Processes and resources will opportunity space, based on a refram- No one has privileged insight into the vary accordingly. Scenario projects do not ing of how the world works, what needs long-term future. That is why the fu- have to be costly and time-consuming, exist out there and how we might want ture is a safe conceptual space in which however. In the right circumstances, with to make a difference. Richard Normann people can explore each other’s world- the right people around the table, an after- has shown how scenarios can be used views and develop a shared language to noon back-of-the-envelope exercise might as a scaffolding for drawing new mental talk about choices and developments do the trick. In other cases there will be no maps of our environment. These maps that affect them all (albeit in different other way than to create time and space can gradually change the landscape for ways). In these settings the process is for deep research, building trust and broad other actors as well. more important than the product. The communication. purpose is to develop trust and social >> ‘Enabling collaborative action’: in a plan- capital, not to display intellectual rigour. ning environment that is ‘wicked’, i.e. that is characterised by abundance of >> Agenda setting: stories about the future information and the continued friction have an obvious communicative appeal. between multiple worldviews, it is wiser In the hands of activists they can be to pursue a strategy of collaborative Further reading turned into a powerful vehicle for ad- in(ter)vention than to simply draw up vocacy. Scenarios are then used as nar- >> VAN DER HEIJDEN, K. (1996) Scenar- ‘a plan’. In response, Angela Wilkinson ratives that exemplify the negative im- ios. The Art of Strategic Conversation, has proposed to use scenarios as flexible plications of unwanted policy decisions Wiley, Chichester. canvases for a process of action learning. or, vice versa, the desirable effects of a She calls them ‘reflexive interventionist/ >> GODET, M. (2001) Creating Futures. proper course of action. In this setting, multi-actor’ (or RIMA) scenarios. They Scenario Planning as a Strategic Man- scenarios are inevitably normative: they are reflexive because they feed a process agement Tool. Economica, London. adopt a position – for or against, desir- of continuous reframing of the environ- able or undesirable – with regard to the >> NORMANN, R. (2001) Reframing ment and our relationship with it. They future. This judgmental quality can be Business. When the Map Changes are interventionist because they sustain used to energise and orient a societal the Landscape, Wiley, Chichester. action learning. In this setting, scenarios debate around choices with important will only be part of a wider toolbox. They >> WILKINSON, A., EIDINOW, E. (2008) consequences. are not an end in themselves, but a ve- ‘Evolving practices in environmental >> Reframing: one of the most decisive hicle to enable conversation, to explore scenarios: a new scenario typology’, sources of competitive advantage is an ideas far beyond the status quo, to inte- in: Environ. Res. Lett. 3
  • 33. Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging 33 D/ Design Thinking Summary Design has just started to move away from shaping individual products and buildings to a more strategic agenda. Design thinkers approach the world as a giant laboratory. They are not intimidated by complexity but start with patient observation of the ‘system-as-is’. Every ‘problem’ contains ‘positive deviants’: practices that contain the germs of novel solu- tions. Immersion leads to ideas, drawings, sketches, models, and back to observation and ideas. Visualisation and prototyping is a powerful means of catalysing new ideas and testing emergent solutions. Skillful design thinkers are reflective practitioners, engaged in a process of action learning. For many people ‘design’ means still es- global hinterland. What underpins de- novation and business strategy.” What sentially ‘styling’: the art of giving pleas- signers’ ambitions to tackle these chal- this means is that the way companies or ing or striking shapes to consumer prod- lenging issues? In two words: a mindset public services create value is increasing- ucts or buildings. But design has always and a methodology. Recently these have ly a reflection of what designers have al- been more than that. Recently this has been packaged and branded as ‘design ways done: understand and reframe the become obvious in designers’ move to thinking’. But it’s just another one of needs and requirements of users, look for more strategic briefings. Industrial de- those unlucky oxymorons as design goes solutions together with these users and signers are not only designing isolated beyond ‘thinking’ to inextricably weave other stakeholders, visualise ideas and products, but increasingly also consumer the ‘doing’ in the way it deals with reality. review those with users (see diagram on and citizen experiences, commercial and the next page). Let’s look at each of these Thomas Lockwood, President of the De- public services, and larger systems in the key steps in turn. sign Management Institute characterises public sphere (in transport and health ‘design thinking’ as “a human-centered >> Understanding the needs of users: de- care, for example). Urban designers are innovation process that emphasizes sign work does not start with abstrac- looking beyond the scope of a single observation, collaboration, fast learn- tions but with a careful observation building or even a neighbourhood to ing, visualization of ideas, rapid concept of lived reality. Urban designer Paola some of the most complex systems on prototyping, and concurrent business Vigano’ refers to this process as ‘hav- this planet: big cities embedded in their analysis, which ultimately influences in- ing a conversation with a situation’. De-
  • 34. 34 Working with wicked problems / 5 ways of knowing and engaging 1. Define the challenge/ >> Visualise solutions: one of designers’ opportunity 10. Iterate most distinctive skills is to turn ideas into tangible shapes. Even in the age of computer modelling great archi- 2. Gather data tects will insist on making (sometimes 9. Implement hundreds of) models along the way in a complicated project. They do this 8. Assess not only to provide the user or client 3. Re-frame/ outcomes/ (who is usually less skilled in imagining clarify refine three-dimensional structures) an idea challenge of what the future reality might look like, but also to stimulate their own 7. Prototype / test thinking. The actual process of using 4. Incubate motor skills to draw or to make a mod- el does something to the brain: model- 6. Evaluate / refine ling is a very special form of thinking. 5. Ideate/illuminate Again, a wide variety of formats may be used, ranging from tabletop ma- quettes to storyboards to more con- ceptual representations such as maps signers immerse themselves and open to see solutions and opportunities and cause or flow diagrams. themselves up to the system-as-is. They where other people see only prob- >> Test solutions: design thinking is ac- use a wide range of techniques to learn lems. Designers always have a utopian tion learning. Prototypes, often made to look through other people’s eyes: streak. They refuse to be intimidated with very modest means, reveal a lot ethnographic methods (as used by an- by complexity but start from the prem- about how new solutions might work thropologists to study foreign cultures), ise that ‘anything is possible’. An archi- in real life. Of course, it’s easy to make participatory processes, mapping. This tect opens up novel solutions when a dummy of a new shaving foam holder part of the work is potentially time con- she recasts ‘a social housing project’ and much more difficult to get a han- suming. In complex systems such as as ‘an opportunity to new ways for dif- dle on complex services and systems cities this process of data gathering can ferent communities to live together’. where many people are involved. Still, easily take many months. Similarly, a service designer enables designers will ask users to play through new experiences when he considers a >> Reframing the needs of users: inevita- different scenarios, for example with patient as a person who has unique ca- bly designers make choices about what the help of LEGO bricks and figurines, pabilities to maintain his or her quality and who to include in their studies and or an improvised game board. The of life, rather than as a deviance from how to understand the purpose of the feedback that is generated from these normalcy. In framing challenges in new (service) system in the first place. This experiences halfway between concept ways the scope of design thinking is al- is not so much a separate step in a and solution is then an input for an- ways fundamentally critical. fixed process as a designerly instinct other iteration in the design process.