Presentation to Institute of Directors on Q2 economic data

Ireland’s Return to Growth: Statistical anomaly or real recovery?

40,000
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Quarterly GDP
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts
Seasonally adjusted Quarterly GDP at constant (2012) market prices
Gross Domestic Product

-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Annual GDP Growth Rate
Annual change of GDP at constant market prices per quarter
Annual GDP Growth Rates

Economist’s Reaction
• “The boom is back”
• “This is the strongest growth rate recorded since the early
2000’s”
• “...the economy is recovering really rapidly”
• “Stonking”
• “The strength of the recovery is now such that government
does not need any additional austerity measures to fix the
public finances”
• “Taking all the factors into consideration, these latest
numbers are gangbusters...easing the pressure on the fiscal
front for Budget 2015...

Media Reaction
• “Ireland's economy fastest growing in European Union” (The
Guardian)
• “Ireland leaves eurozone behind as exports boom” (The
Telegraph)
• “Ireland's Economy Surges Ahead of Eurozone” (WSJ)
• “Ireland is a spending nation once again as Celtic Phoenix
rises” (Irish Independent)
• “Irish Economy Grows Annual 7.7%, Fastest Pace Since
2007” (Bloomberg)
• “Irish economy charges ahead in the second quarter”
(Reuters)
• “Ireland returns to boomtime growth levels” (FT)

32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Quarterly GNP
Seasonally adjusted Quarterly GNP at constant (2012) market prices
Gross National Product

30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP
GNP
Seasonally adjusted GDP and GNP at constant market prices
Quarterly GDP and GNP

-12.0
-6.0
0.0
6.0
12.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
Contribution of Domestic Demand and Net Exports to Real GDP Growth
Contribution to Annual Growth
Domestic Economy Net Exports

32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
42,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
C + I + G
Source: Central Statistics Office
Seasonally adjusted components of GDP at constant market prices
Domestic Component of GDP

0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Consumption Investment Government
Seasonally adjusted components of GDP at constant (2012) market prices
Domestic Components of GDP

30,000
34,000
38,000
42,000
46,000
50,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Exports
Imports
Source: CSO: Quarterly National Accounts
Seasonally adjusted exports and imports at constant market prices
Trade Components of GDP

10,000
14,000
18,000
22,000
26,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Service Imports
Service Exports
Quarterly exports at current market prices
Services Exports and Imports

10,000
14,000
18,000
22,000
26,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Goods Exports
Goods Imports
Goods Exports and Imports

10,000
14,000
18,000
22,000
26,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Goods Exports: National Accounts
Goods Exports: Trade Statistics
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts & Trade Statistics
Good Exports: National Accounts versus Trade Statistics

10,000
14,000
18,000
22,000
26,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
National Accounts
Trade Statistics
Good Exports: National Accounts versus Trade Statistics

-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
National Accounts
Trade Adjustment
Difference between Good Net Exports in Trade Statistics and QNAs
Trade Adjustments in the National Accounts

96
100
104
108
112
116
Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14
Value Index
Volume Index
Value and Volume of Retail Sales for All Businesses (Jan 2010 = 100)
Retail Sales Index

94
96
98
100
102
Value Index
Volume Index
Value and Volume of Retail Sales excluding Motor Trades (Jan 2010 = 100)
Retail Sales Index excluding Motor Trades

-9.0
-6.0
-3.0
0.0
3.0
Value Index
Volume Index
Value and Volume of Retail Sales excluding Motor Trades
Annual Changes in Retail Sales Index

1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
000s
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Central Statistics Office, QNHS: Table QNQ03
Total employment 2008-2013, seasonally adjusted quarterly data
Numbers Employed

Questions and Comments Welcome

Presentation to Institute of Directors on Q2 economic data

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Presentation to Institute of Directors on Q2 economic data