This presentation displays that Indonesia is the LOWEST CO2 per Capita emission in the world. We should aware an implication of a continuing conflict of Russia and NATO in Ukraine with respect to energy security

1. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral
Republik Indonesia
Energy, Electricity and Emission
Anticipation on Energy Disruption Crisis: Russia - NATO
Sampe L. Purba
Staf Ahli Menteri ESDM Bidang Ekonomi Sumber Daya Alam 10 October 2022
Geostrategy and Geoeconomy Perspectives

2. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
Contents
1. Update on Russian – NATO Proxy War in
Ukraine
2. Portrait of Fossil Based Energy – Selected
Countries
3. RAPBN 2023 on Energy Issues
4. Global Effort to Cleaner Energy
5. Energy Mix, Electricity, Economy and Emission
6. Concluding Remarks
2

3. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
War in Ukraine may last long - Highlight
It is all about each Country NATIONAL INTEREST
Russia make military
advances since February 2022
Disruption in World Energy
Stability
Explosion in Nordstream
Pipeline
Referendum in occupied
regions
Finland and Sweden to join
NATO
Blast in Crimean Bridge

4. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
Global Power INDEX 2021
“War does not determine who is right – only who is left” – Bernard Russell
Measuring theoretical fighting
capabilities
Conventional Warfare (nuclear excluded)
SIX Parameters measured : Manpower,
Land power, Logistics, PETROLEUM,
Airpower, Naval power, Financials,
Geography
Pay attention to Military Alliances,
Geopolitical Strategy, and Diplomacy
Countries
Overall
GPF
Rank
Power
Index
Score
United States 1 0.0453
Russia 2 0.0581
China 3 0.0511
Japan 5 0.1195
Indonesia 15 0.2251
Australia 17 0.2377
Ukraine 22 0.3266
North Korea 30 0.4621
Singapore 42 0.6253
New Zealand 84 1.6836
https://www.globalfirepower.com/cou
ntries-listing.php
One of Key Element in Military Power is
Access to Petroleum

5. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
RUSSIA MAINTAINS ITS STATUS AS ENERGY POWER
@CREA, August 2022
Financing Putin’s war: Fossil fuel imports from Russia in the first 100 days of the invasion
– Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
Despite the hard CRITISM – COUNTRIES include EU keep doing BUSINESS with RUSSIA
 ENERGY RESILIENCE

6. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
Russia is a major game changer in Global Energy Supply Chain
6
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/042122-russian-oil-exports

7. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
Oil and Gas Major Trading Routes
The Economist, 2019
BP Statistical Review, 2021
Oct-22 7
Sampe Purba - Geoeconomy and
Disturbance in major lines will bring DISRUPTION to the whole system
2

8. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
Big Countries Keep Producing Oil and Gas (and coal)
8
 We don’t hear much about the effort and technology they apply such as CCS and CCUS
 The statistics suggests, the developed Countries produce a highest CO2 emissions per
capita

9. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
FOSSIL is the backbone of WORLD ENERGY SYSTEM
https://www.iea.org/countries/

10. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
Energy Price Global Projection
https://www.statista.com/statistics/326017/weekly-
crude-oil-prices/
10

11. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
RAPBN 2023 – Energy Sector
SUBSIDY
 Subsidy on Energy increased steadily
11
3

12. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
Highlight Energy Subsidy Ceteris Paribus
Basic Assumption :
 ICP and Currency Rate
Qt BBM Jenis tertentu
- Solar 17 juta K/L [subsidi rp. 1.000/ liter]
- Minyak tanah 0,5 juta K/L
- LPG Tabung 3 kg = 8 juta metrik ton
- BPP Listrik [fuel mix, biomass for cofiring
PLTU, PPN increase]
Subsidi Tepat Sasaran :
Consumers, Product, Corporation
Transformation and Data Integration (mis. DTKS, Perlinsos)
12

13. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
Crude Import Sources and LPG demand Projection
13
Vulnerability of Energy [Oil and Gas] Resilience :
 Less diversified Supply Countries
Price vulnerability
Disruption vulnerability [transportation, insurance, price cap, banning etc]

14. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
KETAHANAN ENERGI DALAM PERSPEKTIF DINAMIKA
GLOBAL
Ketahanan Energi :
Available  supply side
Affordable  varies across consumers
Accessible  to drive economy
Sustainable  Environmentally Friendly
ENERGI
BERKEADILA
N
FOCUS ON
1. BBM
2. Gas
3. Listrik
14
Trilemma Energy Index 2021
Selected Countries
Rank # Country total score
Population
(m)
Land Area
000 KM2
GDP Per
Capita
USD
1 Sweden 84.2 10.4 407.3 57,978.0
9 United States 79.0 328.2 9,147.4 76,027.0
25 Malaysia 72.8 32.7 330.8 13,286.0
28 Russia 71.2 145.4 16,376.9 12,575.0
29 Argentina 70.6 47.3 2,736.7 12,187.0
51 China 64.0 1,411.8 9,388.2 14,096.0
58 Indonesia 61.1 275.7 1,904.6 4,691.0
70 Philippines 55.3 109.9 298.2 3,646.0
75 India 53.1 1,407.5 2,100.0 2,515.0
93 Nigeria 40.5 218.5 2,230.0 2,536.0
source https://trilemma.worldenergy.org/#!/energy-index
IMF, World Economic Outlook, 2022
Undang-Undang Energi nr 30 thn 2007
IMF, World Energy Outlook 2022
Ketahanan-kemandirian-atau-
kedaulatan-energi @Sampe Purba

15. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
Historical Portrait of Energy Consumption
15

16. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
Effort to a cleaner energy
16
@Global Status of CCS 2020
4
 Global collaboration to a cleaner energy requires :
 Technology : Shared – Transferred and Patent
 Financing : Access to affordable long term scheme
 Market : Collaboration in Market Value Chain to tap the added value from upstream to downstream

17. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
Challenge and Effort towards Cleaner Energy
BP Statistical Review, 2021 Dewan Energi Nasional, 2021
Oct-22
17

18. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
G20 PRESIDENCY 2022
3 PRIORITY ISSUES – ENERGY TRANSITIONS FORUM
18
PRESIDENCY’S THEME: “RECOVER TOGETHER, RECOVER STRONGER”
(1)Global Health Architecture; (2) Digital Economic Transformation; (3) Sustainable Energy
Transitions
G20 Summit’s Deliverable: G20 Comprehensive Exit Strategy to Support Recovery.
#1 Securing Energy Accessibility
o Pursuing the progress of accessibility (“leaving no one behind”) towards
affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all, in specific for
clean cooking & electrification.
o Thematic Regional Issues: Energy access & transitions in archipelagic states
#2 Smart & Clean Energy Technologies Scaling Up
Rapidly scaling up widest variety of technologies; while anticipating future energy
transitions challenges inc. people-centred energy transitions, growing demand for energy
storage, low-emission energy systems, clean industrial development, transfer-of-
technology, renewables integration, and energy efficiency.
#3 Advancing Energy Financing
Ensuring green financing ecosystem in energy transitions through
exploring best practices, assessing growing challenges, and mitigating
financing disparity

19. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
Electricity, GDP per Capita and CO2 Emission per Capita, 2020
The data from Selected
Countries suggest that :
Indonesia as the LOWEST
CO2 emissions Per CAPITA in
the WORLD
China and USA are the main
producers of Electricity
Apparently Countries with high
GDP per Capita tends to emit
more CO2 compares with
those of the Developing
Countries
19
5

20. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
FOOTPRINT OF BIG INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES IN CO2 EMISSION
20
https://ourworldindata.or
g/grapher/annual-share-
of-co2-emissions?time

21. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
World Electricity Production by Source
21
https://ourworldindata.org/gra
pher/electricity-prod-source-
stacked
FOSSIL is dominant as
SOURCE OF ENERGY

22. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136 22

23. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
Concluding Remarks
Energy dynamics should always be put in the context of
global – regional – national and local context
National Interest to govern our Energy Policy
Petroleum and fossil based national resources are –
among other things – our competitiveness
Any disturbances in certain regions will cause a
DISRUPTION in a whole energy supply chain system
Indonesia should take a proper, tactical and mid terms
ENERGY Policy to anticipate LONG LAST Crisis in UKRAINE
6

24. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
Saran antisipasi sehubungan dengan Perang berlanjut Rusia – NATO di Ukraina
24

25. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
Thank you
Follow us

26. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
Electricity, Energy, Economy and Emissions
26

27. www.esdm.go.id Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral @KementerianESDM @kesdm KementerianESDM Contact Center ESDM 136
Geopolitics – Geostrategy – Geoeconomy : Energy
• Geopolitics: Application of the influence of political and economy
geography international relations [economy, politics, foreign policy,
power, etc]
• Geostrategy : A decisive points with spatial consideration, by taking into
account the driving forces of demography, culture, technology, resources
and its mobility to meet national objectives
• Geoeconomics : Capitalizing Economy to pursue geopolitical objectives
 Territory, Resources or Influence
Instruments : Trade policy, investment policy, Financial and monetary,
energy and commodities, Technical aid and cyber
Energy Policy : Energy Source Management, Transformation, Supporting
Value Chain, Distribution and Allocation
27
@Sampe, 2022