Why fighter pilots run startups 090511
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Why fighter pilots run startups 090511
- 1. Why Fighter Pilots Run Startups Steve Blank Stanford - School of Engineering U.C. Berkeley - Haas School Of Business www.steveblank.com Twitter: sgblank
- 2. I Write a Blog www.steveblank.com
- 3. This Talk is Based On Business Model Generation Four Steps to the Epiphany The Lean Startup
- 4. The Life of an Entrepreneur
- 5. Top Gun dogfight scene
- 6. First -What’s A Startup? Six Types of Startups
- 11. 99.7% of all companies
- 12. ~ 50% of total U.S. workershttp://www.sba.gov/advo/stats/sbfaq.pdf
- 13. Scalable Startup Large Company Scalable Startup Search Goal is to solve for: unknown customer and unknown features
- 15. Total Available Market > €300m
- 16. Can grow to €50/yearScalable StartupBorn to Be Big
- 18. Company can grow to $100m/year
- 19. Business model found
- 20. Focused on execution and process
- 22. Typically needs risk capital
- 25. Process
- 27. Buyable Startup Search Sell Scalable Startup €3 to e0M Acquisition Goal is to solve for: Internet and Mobile Apps Sell to larger company
- 29. i.e. Product/Market fit- Repeatable sales model - Managers hired What’s A Startup? Search Execute A Startup is a temporary organization used to search for a repeatable and scalable business model
- 30. Venture Firms Invest in Scalable and BuyableStartups Small Business Startup Scalable Startup Large Company
- 34. Partner
- 35. Acquire - IP- Talent - Product - Customers - Business
- 42. Profitable~ 150 people
- 44. Cash Flow Statement
- 47. Customer Lifetime Value
- 48. Average Selling Price/Order Size
- 49. Monthly burn rate
- 51. Cash Flow Statement
- 53. Scalable
- 54. Price List/Data Sheets
- 57. Not yet repeatable
- 59. Scalable
- 60. Price List/Data Sheets
- 63. QA
- 66. QA
- 69. Self Organizing Teams
- 70. Minimum Feature Set
- 72. Known features for line extensions
- 75. Unknown business model
- 76. Model found by iteration
- 78. Known features for line extensions
- 81. Product Introduction Model Concept/Seed Round Product Dev. Alpha/Beta Test Launch/ 1st Ship
- 82. Product Introduction Model The Leading Cause of Startup Death Concept/Seed Round Product Dev. Alpha/Beta Test Launch/ 1st Ship
- 83. Product Introduction Model:Two Implicit Assumptions Customer Problem: known Concept/Seed Round Product Dev. Alpha/Beta Test Launch/ 1st Ship Product Features: known
- 86. Hire Sales VP
- 87. Hire 1st Sales StaffSales
- 89. Hire Sales VP
- 92. Hire Sales VP
- 95. Waterfall
- 96. Q/A
- 98. Then why do we have: process to manage product development?
- 99. Then why do we have: process to manage product development? no process to manage customer development?
- 100. No Business Plan survives first contact with customers
- 101. So Search for a Business Model
- 102. The Business Model: Any company can be described in 9 building blocks
- 103. CUSTOMER SEGMENTS which customers and users are you serving? which jobs do they really want to get done?
- 104. VALUE PROPOSITIONS what are you offering them? what is that getting done for them? do they care?
- 105. CHANNELS how does each customer segment want to be reached? through which interaction points?
- 106. CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIPS what relationships are you establishing with each segment? personal? automated? acquisitive? retentive?
- 107. REVENUE STREAMS what are customers really willing to pay for? how? are you generating transactional or recurring revenues?
- 108. KEY RESOURCES which resources underpin your business model? which assets are essential?
- 109. KEY ACTIVITIES which activities do you need to perform well in your business model? what is crucial? 54
- 110. KEY PARTNERS which partners and suppliers leverage your model? who do you need to rely on?
- 111. COST STRUCTURE what is the resulting cost structure? which key elements drive your costs?
- 112. value proposition customer relationships key activities customer segments key partners cost structure revenue streams key resources channels 57 images by JAM
- 113. Solving For Customer Risk:Customer Development Get the Hell Out of the Building
- 114. Solving For Customer Risk:Customer Development Get the Hell Out of the Building Country
- 115. Product Development Concept/Bus. Plan Product Dev. Alpha/Beta Test Launch/1st Ship + CustomerDevelopment Company Building CustomerDiscovery CustomerValidation Customer Creation Customer Development
- 116. Customer Discovery CustomerDiscovery CustomerValidation Company Building CustomerCreation Stop coding, stop selling, start listening Test your hypotheses Continuous Discovery
- 122. Minimum feature set speeds up cycle time
- 124. Pivot ExampleRobotic Weeding Talked 75 Customers in 8 Weeks
- 125. Our initial plan Confidential
- 127. White Farms, Large Peanut farmer in Georgia
- 128. REFCO Farms, large grower in Salinas Valley
- 129. Rincon Farms, large grower in Salinas Valley
- 130. Small Organic Corn/Soy grower in Nebraska
- 131. Heirloom Organics, small owner/operator, Santa Cruz Mts
- 132. Two small organic farmers at farmers market
- 134. Parks: Stanford Grounds Supervisor, head of maintenance and lead operator (has crew of 6)
- 135. Toro dealer (large mower manufacturer)
- 136. User of back-yard mowing system
- 137. Maintenance Services for City of Los Altos
- 139. Found weeding in organic crops is HUGE problem; 50 - 75% of costs Crews of 100s-1000 Back-breaking task (Ilegal) labor harder to get 1-5 weedings per year/field $250-3,500 per acre and increasing Food contamination risk
- 140. Decision to make – mowing vs weeding
- 141. Autonomous vehiclesWEEDING Dealers sell, installs and supports customer Co. trains dealers, supports dealers - Innovation - Customer Education - Dealer training - Low density vegetable growers - High density vegetable growers - Thinning operations - Conventional vegetables We reduce operating cost - Labor reduction (100 to 1) - Reduced risk of contamination - Mitigate labor availability concerns - Ag Dealers - Ag Service providers - Research labs - Ag Dealers - Ag Service providers Engineers on Machine Vision Two problems: - Identification - Elimination Asset sale Our revenue stream derives from selling the equipment Dealer discount COGS seek a 50-60% Gross Margin Heavy R&D investment
- 142. 1 Week – 1 CarrotBot Confidential
- 143. CarrotBot Machine Vision data collection platform Monochrome & Color Cameras Laser-line sweep (depth measurement) Encoders (position/velocity) Onboard data acquisition & power CarrotBot 1.0
- 145. Demo, demo, and demo!!
- 147. Technology Design
- 148. Marketing
- 149. Demo and customer feedback
- 150. Organic Farmers
- 152. Conventional Farmers
- 153. Cost Reduction
- 154. Remove labor force pains
- 156. Research Labs
- 158. Distribution Network
- 159. Service Providers
- 160. IP – Patents
- 162. Robust Technology
- 163. Dealers
- 164. Direct Service
- 165. Indirect Service
- 166. … then Dealers
- 167. Asset Sale
- 168. Direct Service with equipment rental
- 169. … then Asset SaleValue-Driven
- 170. Visit Highlights Above: Organic Carrots, 7wks. Top right: Conventional carrots Bottom Right: Very weedy. Will require multiple passes of hand weeding
- 171. Visit Highlights Carrot vs. Weeds Due to small root systems, carrots have no chance against weeds
- 172. Visit Highlights Organic Broccoli, closely cultivated. Weeds close to plants are hand-picked
- 173. Visit Highlights State of the Art in Weeding Technology for Organic Crops
- 175. Industrial (10,000s of acres)
- 176. Large (1,000s of acres)
- 177. Willing to pay $100k for one unit
- 178. Smaller growers (100s of acres) usually subcontract the labor services or rent equipment
- 179. All purchases through local dealers
- 180. Customer service is essentialPost-Test
- 182. Local Farm Mgr
- 183. Cliff Kirkpatrick, visited
- 184. Director, Ag Technology
- 186. CFO, CEO (Jeff Dunn)Cliff, Farm Mgr
- 188. Grower
- 190. Demo, demo, and demo!!
- 192. Technology Design
- 193. Marketing
- 194. Demo and customer feedback
- 199. Cost Reduction
- 200. Remove labor force pains
- 202. Research Labs
- 204. Distribution Network
- 205. Service Providers
- 206. IP – Patents
- 208. Robust Technology
- 209. Direct Service
- 210. Indirect Service
- 211. … then Dealers
- 212. Direct Service with equipment rental
- 213. ($1,500/d; 120d/yr )
- 216. World Ag Expo interviews:the need is real and wide spread 10+ interviews at show Everyone confirmed the need Robocrop, UK based, crude competitor sells for $171 K Revenue Stream Mid to small growers prefer a service Large growers prefer to buy, but OK with service until technology is proven Charging for labor cost saved is OK, as we provide other benefits (food safety, labor availability) Confidential
- 218. Demo, demo, and demo!!
- 220. Technology Design
- 221. Marketing
- 222. Demo and customer feedback
- 227. Research Labs
- 229. Distribution Network
- 230. Service Providers
- 231. 2 or 3 Key Farms
- 232. Cost Reduction
- 233. Remove labor force pains
- 235. IP – Patents
- 237. Robust Technology
- 238. Direct Service
- 239. Indirect Service
- 240. … then Dealers
- 241. Direct Service with equipment rental
- 244. Bill of Materials
- 245. Training & Service
- 247. Why Fighter Pilots Run Startups
- 249. Routine
- 251. Rapid, unanticipated changes
- 252. Changes lead to disorientation
- 255. Winning requires constant assessment of change and ways to mitigate risk
- 256. Iterating faster than competitors yields substantial advantage = Victory
- 257. 92 Boyd’s OODA Loop Observe Orient Decide Act ImplicitGuidance& Control ImplicitGuidance& Control UnfoldingCircumstances CulturalTraditions Observations GeneticHeritage Decision(Hypothesis) Analyses &Synthesis Action(Test) FeedForward FeedForward FeedForward NewInformation PreviousExperience OutsideInformation InteractionWithEnvironment Interaction w/Environment
- 258. Customer Development = OODA Loop Observe Orient Act Decide
- 261. It’s not about winning arguments inside the company
- 263. Am I an Entrepreneur?Startup Personal Checklist Are you comfortable with: Chaos Uncertainty Are you: Curious Resilient Agile Passionate Driven Articulate Tenacious
- 264. EntrepreneurshipYour Role in a Startup Decreasing chaos/reward Founder Co-founder Early Employee Late Employee They don’t require the same risk/personality profile
- 265. February 28, 2009 One candidate got a C in macroeconomics. “That’s troubling to me,” Ms. Mayer says. “Good students are good at all things.”Marissa MayerGoogle
- 266. The “Good Student” Will go to work for Google, Microsoft, NokiaIBM or Apple Successful tech entrepreneurs and grades have at best zero correlation
- 267. The Following People Would Never Have Been Hired by Marissa Mayer and Google