Etude PwC marché automobile européen Q3 (2013)

Autofacts
R
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October 2013
Growth in July and September helped the EU record the first positive quarter
in two years. With the UK making a disproportionate contribution and some
markets still falling, the situation remains finely balanced but Autofacts
believes this quarter has marked a turning point in the overall EU market.
EU: Green shoots growing?
Growth seen in the third quarter
European Market Review
EU+EFTA: Monthly car sales 2012-2013 (millions)
Source: European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association
(ACEA)
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2012 2013 % Change 2013 vs 2012 (R-scale)
Market commentary
According to ACEA data and Autofacts estimates,
EU+EFTA new car registrations grew by 2.7%, or
75k units in the third quarter, marking the first
quarterly expansion in two years. This better than
anticipated result was due to growth of 5% in July
and an estimated 5.5% in September suggesting that
the market as a whole has indeed now bottomed out,
as anticipated previously. For the year-to-date, the
market has fallen by 4%, or 390k units, due largely
to the very heavy fall seen in the first quarter.
A key driver for the relatively strong September and
third quarter performance was the UK. September is
typically the second highest volume month in the
UK, due to the date change on registration plates.
However, owing to very strong growth of 12.1%, to
403,136 units, September was the strongest month
this year, thus accounting for 58% of the total
volume increase in the region. Nevertheless, the
belief that the bottom may now have passed is
supported by the Autofacts estimate that at least 18
of the 29 markets in the region achieved growth in
September, as was the case in July.
Two of the markets that have been hardest hit by the
crisis over the past few years have been Portugal and
Hungary and both are showing clear and consistent
signs of growth. Hungary has now grown for seven
consecutive months, and leapt by 32.4% in
September. Portugal has grown for four successive
months including a 15.9% increase in September.
Sweden also recorded its third month of growth in a
row with a pick up to 11.2% and Poland its fourth
consecutive month of growth. Indeed Poland, which
is the largest market amongst the newer members of
the EU, achieved 13.2% growth in the third quarter.
However, it is the top five markets that dominate
regional volumes. In September, the UK, France and
Spain achieved growth while a fall of just 1.2% in
Germany and 2.9% in Italy helped minimise the
negative impact. Germany remains something of a
conundrum given the economic and employment
situation, although demand weakness is partially
attributed to the national elections in September and
uncertainty over tax policy. Italy may remain weak
for some months yet due to a VAT increase in
October and continued political uncertainty.
70
80
90
100
110
120
Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13
EU-27 DE FR
IT UK ES
EU Top 5: Monthly Economic Sentiment (ECU)
Source: European Commission

Autofacts
R
www.autofacts.com
advisors.
Forecast
First half may have marked the bottom
A slightly stronger third quarter than forecast, results in a full year upward
revision although the fourth quarter could still see some negative results.
michael.x.gartside@de.pwc.com
Tel: +49(0)711250341104
Economic commentary and demand outlook
While it is too soon to see how the economy
performed in the third quarter, the second quarter
economic growth figures surprised most observers
with many markets including Germany and the UK
achieving better than expected results and also
showing France moving out of recession.
Clearly, the economic situation in most countries
remains challenging. But after the reasonably
positive second quarter, many forward looking
indicators suggest the economic picture could
continue to improve. If we take the Eurostat
Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) then these have
shown very strong growth within both the Eurozone
and the EU in recent months. A large increase in
September for the EU took the reading to 100.6,
above the long term average of 100 for the first time
since July 2011. Likewise, if we take the EU
Consumer Sentiment Indicator then again it has
improved significantly in recent months in most
economies. For the EU as a whole it stood at -11.7 in
September, above the long run average of -12.3.
Within the smaller Eurozone, it improved to -14.9
which is just below the long run average of -13.3 and
the highest level recorded since July 2011.
These improving sentiment indicators are supported
by Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI),
which suggested the recovery gathered pace through
the third quarter, with the index improving to a 27
month high of 52.2 in June. Markit also stated that
the jobs outlook was improving with the rate of jobs
losses easing to a very moderate pace.
In the previous European Market Review July 2013
issue, Autofacts reported improving sentiment and
PMI indicators and suggested these should start
translating into a better demand situation in the
third quarter and this did indeed happen. If we see a
repeat, with the relatively bullish third quarter
forward looking indicators translating into growing
demand in the fourth quarter then the year should
end on a positive note. However, Autofacts remains
cautious about the fourth quarter for a number of
reasons. Demand in France and the UK was
relatively strong in late 2012 making year-on-year
comparisons less favourable, especially given the
economic and fiscal headwinds faced by France. In
addition, the outlook for Italy remains challenging
also, given the VAT increase and continued political
uncertainty. Finally in Germany, where the market
remains stubbornly weak despite the positive
economic situation, it remains to be seen if there will
be a post election improvement in demand.
Nevertheless, with the Seasonally Adjusted Annual
Rate (SAAR) standing at 12.9m units in September,
the highest level since January 2012, and many of
the other EU markets now clearly returning to
growth, Autofacts has raised its full-year forecast for
2013 to 12.15m units, a 3% fall over 2012.
Conversely, Autofacts has slightly reduced its 2014
outlook, due to a more cautious outlook for France
and Italy, forecasting growth of around 3.5% to just
under 12.6m units. If the employment situation
improves more rapidly than currently assumed, this
could provide some upside potential.
Europe France / Germany / Italy / Spain / United Kingdom
EU+EFTA: new car SAAR & forecast (millions)
Source: PwC Autofacts Analysis
-2.5%
-1.5%
-0.5%
0.5%
1.5%
2.5%
EZ DE FR UK IT ES
2013 2014 15-19
EU Top 5: Economic outlook – GDP growth (%)
Source: PwC Economics (September 2013)
10
12
14
16
18
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SAAR Annual Sales Sales Forecast

Autofacts
R
www.autofacts.com
advisors.
Forecast
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
France
A difficult start to 2013 mixed with a lack of visibility is holding back
consumers.
Source: Comité des Constructeurs Français d’Automobiles (CCFA)
-40%
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0%
20%
40%
0
50
100
150
200
Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec
2012 2013 % Change 2013 vs 2012 (R-scale)
France: Monthly car sales 2012-2013 (000s)
Market Commentary
CCFA data showed that new car registrations
dropped by 1.2% to 378,024 units in the third
quarter. This moderated the fall recorded since the
beginning of 2013 to -8.5%, 1,309,858 units,
although this was the lowest first nine month result
since 1997. With respective increase of 0.9% and
3.4% in comparison to 2012, July and September
suggest the French market may be bottoming out,
although year-on-year declines in the fourth
quarter are likely given the strong fourth quarter of
2012. In addition, several elements must be
highlighted. September was boosted by an extra
selling day. The positive results are also partly
explained by the high level of “tactical sales”
(demonstration cars, rentals, etc.) and in
September these sales amounted to more than 17%
of the 142,211 units. The numerous product
launches from the French carmakers in the second
and third quarter also help to explain the slightly
more positive situation.
France: new car SAAR & forecast (millions)
France: Sentiment and Confidence Indicator
The third quarter showed improvement of the overall
French economic sentiment. The industry and
consumer confidence indicators improved
respectively by more than 4.5 and 7 points compared
to the previous quarter. But France is the only major
EU economy to experience a deterioration in
economic sentiment since Autumn last year, when
the low point was reached in most economies. Plus,
for the second quarter in a row, its indicators are
lower than the ones of Spain or Italy. However,
contrary to statistical data, some polls show that
individuals and companies are feeling that the French
economic situation is not improving. The reforms
that have been introduced, including the new tax
increases and reductions of state subsidies, are not
seen to meet the structural problems of the country.
It doesn’t offer them clear visibility for the future,
which is weighing on consumer sentiment. To add to
that, the prospect of an increase in the VAT could
constrain economic growth prospects.
The third quarter SAAR, at 1.76m, was the highest
quarterly result this year. While Autofacts forecasts a
further improvement in the SAAR in the final
quarter, given the relatively strong fourth quarter in
2012, this still equates to a falling market on a year-
on-year comparison basis. For the year as a whole
Autofacts maintains its forecast at 1.75m units, a
7.9% fall over 2012. Due to the challenging economic
situation and increased tax burden, Autofacts sees
little prospect for a strong recovery in France in 2014
and forecast growth of just 2.9% to 1.8m units.
josselin.chabert@fr.pwc.com
Tel: +33(0)156577158
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0
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110
120
Mar-11Jul-11Nov-11Mar-12Jul-12Nov-12Mar-13Jul-13
FR Economic Sentiment Industry (R-scale)
Consumer (R-scale)
Source: European Commission (September 2013)

Autofacts
R
www.autofacts.com
advisors.
Forecast
Germany: new car SAAR & forecast (millions)
Germany
Despite weak demand in the first three quarters, strong economic sentiment
combined with certainty over future tax policies in Q4 could turn the market
Source: Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA)
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40%
0
100
200
300
400
2012 2013 % Change 2013 vs 2012 (R-scale)
Germany: Monthly car sales 2012-2013 (000s)
Market Commentary
In September new car sales in Germany fell by 1.2%
to 247,199 units according to KBA data. This
resulted in a market contraction of 6.0% to 2.22m
units for the first three quarters of 2013. While this
is a weak result, the fall in new car registrations at
least slowed when looking at the market evolution
by quarter. The decrease in new car sales in the first
quarter by 12.9% followed by a fall of 3.7% in the
second quarter can be partly explained by the
strong first half of the German market in 2012.
Thus, the 1.4% fall from July to September could
mark the end of the market’s contraction. While
new car demand weakened in Germany, economic
sentiment increased markedly over the last year,
reaching a 17-month high in September according
to the European Commission. The German market
research institute GfK even forecasts that consumer
confidence will hit its highest level in six years
heading into October. Source: PwC Autofacts Analysis
Germany: Sentiment and Confidence Indicator
-20
-10
0
10
20
80
90
100
110
120
DE Economic Sentiment Industry (R-scale)
Consumer (R-scale)
Although Germany’s unemployment rate rose to
6.9% in September, it remained close to its lowest
level since reunification more than two decades ago.
Driven by the stable labor market and historically low
interest rates, German consumers, who traditionally
tend to save, became more willing to spend in
September than at any point since December 2006.
Given the weak demand for new cars but the strong
willingness to buy, the question remains why the
positive consumer sentiment is not reflected in
vehicle demand. One possible explanation can be
found in a political rather than an economic issue.
Although Angela Merkel's conservative party recently
won the national elections, a coalition partner has to
be found after falling just short of a parliamentary
majority. While Merkel unequivocally rejected tax
hikes in the election campaign, it is thought that she
is likely to seek a grand coalition with the Social
Democrats (SPD) who had campaigned on a platform
of tax increases for Germany's highest earners.
Therefore, it is possible that some consumers fear
tax hikes and thus defer purchases until future tax
policies become certain. Despite a low SAAR of
2.91m units in September, given the said factors,
Autofacts forecast a recovery in the SAAR by fourth
quarter. This results in an expected overall decline of
3.6% to 2.98m units for the German market in 2013.
Further, given the current average age of the German
car fleet is now at a record high of 8.7 years, pent-up
demand is building, which is expected to enhance
demand in the mid-term, contributing to a return to
growth in 2014 with a 2.4% increase to 3.05m units.
2.5
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3.5
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4.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Keisuke.Kusaba@de.pwc.com
Tel: +49(0)711250341457Source: European Commission (September 2013)

Autofacts
R
www.autofacts.com
advisors.
Forecast
Italy
Despite some positive economic developments, Italy faces a number of
challenges which could undermine recovery hopes over the short-term.
Source: Ministero delle Infrastrutture e Trasporto (MIT), ISTAT
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
0
50
100
150
200
2012 2013 % Change 2013 vs 2012 (R-scale)
Italy: Monthly car sales 2012-2013 (000s)
Market Commentary
A lot has been said regarding a potential market
recovery, which would benefit the whole value
chain, but in relation to Italy signs remain elusive.
The whole local automotive value chain has been in
survival mode for over three years and, as a
confirmation of this downward trend, July closed
with 107,848 units, a fall of 1.6 % year-on-year,
August with 52,997 units, a decline of 6.6 % year-
on-year, and September posted 106,363 units, a fall
of 2.9 % year-on-year. For the year-to-date,
registrations fell by 8.34% to 1,000,032 units.
Viewed against 2007 pre-crisis volumes, the
contraction is even worse at -48%. Weak market
performance is partially due to heavy fiscal
pressures recently introduced from the Italian
government negatively impacting the purchase of
new vehicles. These include duties, taxes and high
maintenance costs, with the tax element on fuel
now equating to 58.4% of the price.
Italy: new car SAAR & forecast (millions)
Italy: Sentiment and Confidence Indicator
-60
-40
-20
0
60
80
100
120
IT Economic Sentiment Industry (R-scale)
Consumer (R-scale)
Further negative influences come in the form of the
convergence of political instability and increased
VAT, boosted from 21% to 22%, which may further
weaken the already depressed demand for vehicles.
As a consequence, the Italian automotive market is
going through a transition which, on one side,
alternative fuel vehicles achieved 15.2% year-to-date
of penetration and, on the other side, a progressive
switch toward smaller size segments is taking place
(A segment went from 18.8% in 2012 to 19.1 in 2013
and MINI SUV’s from 2.6% to 4.2%).
Some hope may be taken from Italian National
Institute of Statistics’ (ISTAT) consumer confidence
index posting an improved attitude toward the
purchase of durable goods (turning from 97.4 to
98.3). In addition, the Italian dealer network
displayed a positive sentiment for the coming quarter
in combination with a higher flow of visitors,
according to Centro Studi Promotor (CSP).
Despite these potential positive developments,
downside risks in the form of the current macro-
economic landscape and increased tax burden,
appear stronger and demand is expected to remain
underperforming. As a result, Autofacts has
marginally downgraded its full-year forecast for Italy
to 1.28m units, an 8.8% decline on 2012.
1
1.5
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2.5
3
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
giorgio.elefante@it.pwc.com
Tel: +390280646325Source: European Commission (September 2013)

Autofacts
R
www.autofacts.com
advisors.
Forecast
Spain
The extension, again, of Spain’s PIVE incentive plan continues to support the
market at a 700k unit level.
Source: Association of Spanish Automobile Manufacturers
(ANFAC)
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
0
25
50
75
100
2012 2013 % Change 2013 vs 2012 (R-scale)
Spain: Monthly car sales 2012-2013 (000s)
Market Commentary
In September, new car registrations in Spain rose
by 28.5% to 45,175 units according to ANFAC.
Strong year-on-year growth was virtually inevitable
given the very weak September 2012 as a result of
the VAT increase at the start of that month. In
addition, an extra selling day further helped as did
the extension of the PIVE scrappage scheme with
PIVE3. This growth helped the market record a
decline of just 1.6% in the first nine months to
546,435 units. Not surprising, given the plan PIVE
scrappage schemes, it is private buyers that are
supporting the market at this low level, with a
69.4% leap in registration in September to 28,695
units. For the year-to-date, volumes were up by
10.5% to 283,347 units. Conversely, sales to
companies remain weak, with a 10.9% fall in
September to just 14,737 units while for the year-to-
date they have fallen by 20.4% to 138,636 units.
Spain: new car SAAR & forecast (millions)
Spain: Sentiment and Confidence Indicator
-60
-40
-20
0
80
90
100
110
ES Economic Sentiment Industry (R-scale)
Consumer (R-scale)
With the holiday season coming to an end,
September is inevitably a small month for rental
sales, although the 1,743 units did represent a 4.3%
year-on-year increase. For the year-to-date, rental
companies have bought 124,450 cars, a 0.4% increase
on 2012.
While Spain remains in recession, and continues to
suffer from extremely high unemployment and faces
significant challenges, the dramatic improvements
seen in sentiment over the past year may point
towards an improving situation over the next six
months. Consumer sentiment has improved from -40
in December to -17.5, only slightly below the average
of -14.5 since 1990. Likewise, economic sentiment
has improved consistently over the past year, but
gained strength in recent months. Less positive was
the second monthly decline in the Markit Purchasing
Managers’ Index (PMI), although it still stood well
above levels seen over the previous 24 months.
The Spanish SAAR has been remarkably stable this
year and stood at 720k units in September. As a
result, Autofacts maintains its forecast for 700k units
for the full-year. For 2014, one of the biggest
concerns now is the impact of a withdrawal of the
government scrappage incentive. So far, each PIVE
scheme has been relatively small so the improving
economic fundamentals may offset any negative
influence from scrappage withdrawal. Therefore, on
balance, Autofacts forecast a marginal increase in
Spanish demand to 710k units in 2014.
0.5
1
1.5
2
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: European Commission (September 2013)
Tel: +49(0)711250341104

Autofacts
R
www.autofacts.com
advisors.
Forecast
United Kingdom
Registrations in September were the highest since March 2008, with an
improving economy increasingly supporting the growth being seen.
Source: Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
0
100
200
300
400
2012 2013 % Change 2013 vs 2012 (R-scale)
UK: Monthly car sales 2012-2013 (000s)
Market Commentary
According to SMMT data, the UK market
experienced an extremely strong September, with
registrations up by 12.1% to 403,176 units. This was
the highest monthly result since March 2008 and
contributed to third quarter growth of 12.2% to
631,301 units, the highest third quarter result since
2007. For the year-to-date, registrations grew by
10.8% to 1,794,924 units. Private consumers
continue to drive the market with registrations up
by 17.9% in September and 16.7% for the year-to-
date. As a result, private share of the market in
September, at 51.8%, was the highest since March
2010 and for the year-to-date, at 48.4%, the highest
since 2009. Part of this boom in private demand is
being driven by the widespread cash payments
made in compensation for mis-sold payment
protection insurance (PPI). With around £8bn paid
out in 2012 and a greater amount expected this
year, these windfall cash payments are providing a
large cash boost to UK consumers.
UK: new car SAAR & forecast (millions)
UK: Sentiment and Confidence Indicator
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
70
80
90
100
110
120
UK Economic Sentiment Industry (R-scale)
Consumer (R-scale)
However, while this cash windfall has no doubt
helped the UK market, the company car sector is also
showing stronger growth as the year progresses. At
the mid-year point, company car registrations were
just 4.3% up, but by the nine month point they had
grown by 8.5%. While strong incentives and key new
models are helping the market, it appears that
economic fundamentals are increasingly playing their
part. Second quarter economic output was stronger
than anticipated and unemployment is now starting
to fall. In addition, dramatic increases have been seen
in the consumer and economic sentiment indicators
over the past few months which support the positive
picture. Consumer sentiment leapt from -17.5 in May
to -1.0 in September, well ahead of the average of -10
since 1990. Likewise, economic sentiment stood at
115.4, well above the 100 average and just below the
peak level of 116.5. These suggest that demand
should remain strong in the coming months.
The SAAR stood at 2.38m in September, the highest
level since the scrappage scheme boosted the market
in late 2009. Given the extremely strong September,
the dramatic improvement in sentiment and
stronger economic position, Autofacts has raised its
full-year forecast for the UK to 2.22m units some
8.6% higher than 2012. However, with the impact of
the PPI compensation likely to diminish next year,
and economic growth likely to remain below its long
run average, we do not see demand continuing to
grow at these exalted levels and forecast moderate
growth of 2.2% to 2.27m into 2014.
Tel: +49(0)711250341104Source: European Commission (September 2013)
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Etude PwC marché automobile européen Q3 (2013)

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