Etude PwC marché automobile mondial (2013)

Analyst Note>

Autofacts

R

October 2013

Quarterly Forecast Update
Industry poised to end year on a good note

Despite ongoing concerns in select regions, the stabilisation of several key
automotive markets in 2013 has positioned the global automotive industry to
forge ahead with technological innovation, further driving strategic
partnerships and increased merger and acquisition activity.
Global: Year-over-year (YoY) Assembly Change by Region
2012 vs. 2013(f)
Developing
Asia-Pacific

South
America

Eastern
Europe

North
America

European
Union

Developed
Asia-Pacific

Middle East &
Africa (ME&A)

9.61%

4.94%

5.95%

4.94%

-0.91%

-4.57%

-16.13%

Source: Autofacts 2013 Q4 Data Release

Year in review
While there is seldom an occasion where the global
industry has performed in sync, 2013 does promise
to mark a turning point for the European Union,
setting the region up for a long awaited, albeit slight,
recovery in 2014. This will bring the region in line
with the recent recoveries in North America and
Eastern Europe and the continued growth in
Developing Asia-Pacific and South America.
Areas of concern remain, however, as developed
Asia-Pacific (Japan, South Korea, Australia) is
expected to see assembly declines throughout the
forecast window. Stagnant economic conditions,
high labor costs, and localisation of products
currently tagged for export are all factors
constraining production in these markets. ME&A is
also experiencing a significant decline as sanctions
against Iran and political uncertainty within the
region remain prevalent. Despite these setbacks,
global light vehicle production is expected to reach
81.8m units in 2013, representing a 3.3% YoY gain.

1

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Looking beyond the numbers, several key
developments began to take shape during 2013 that
promise to have a significant impact on the global
automotive outlook going forward. Announced in
July 2013, the formation of a strategic partnership
between GM and Honda to develop next-gen fuel
cell technologies represents a growing trend of
strategic collaborations and resource pooling to
drive and deliver innovation to the masses.
Although M&A activity is down in 2013, companies
continue to strengthen and/or broaden their
capabilities. The pace of acquisitions is expected to
quicken, particularly in the areas of fuel economy
and safety systems. Furthermore, OEMs and
suppliers in developing markets will seek to acquire
distressed companies with established capabilities in
these areas, setting the stage for more
geographically balanced – and competitive – core
competencies in the future.
For information regarding our
products and services please visit us at
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North America
Key Regional Statistics

Key Statistics
(YTD)

US light vehicle sales

+8.1%

Canada light vehicle sales

+5.0%

Assembly 2012-2019 CAGR

+2.8%

Argentina light vehicle sales

+18.7%
+6.9%

+8.9%

Regional assembly

+11.2%

+3.4%

Mexico light vehicle sales

+2.5%


% Change
(YoY)

Brazil new light vehicle registrations
Brazil light vehicle assembly

Key Statistics
(YTD)

% Change
(YoY)

Sales
All three countries in the North America continue to
grow at impressive rates, with the US leading on a
volume basis and Mexico on a percentage basis. The
US market has sold more vehicles through
September than it did all of 2010 and should easily
surpass last years 14.4m units for the full year.
Autofacts sees full-year 2013 sales reaching 15.6m
units – the region’s fourth consecutive year with
gains of over a million units. For 2014, Autofacts
expects sales to reach 16.2m units which, though not
as large as recent growth, would still represent a
healthy gain.
The question at hand for the US will now shift
towards where the natural rate of demand will be
now that the market has essentially recovered from
the lows of 2009. Autofacts anticipates that demand
for new vehicles will fluctuate between 16m to 17m
units by the end of the decade.
Canada is currently on track to have a record year for
new vehicle sales, surpassing the previous high of
1.69m units in 2007. Autofacts currently forecasts
Canadian sales to reach 1.74m units for the full year.
Assembly
Though mature and stable, the North American
topline continues to expand with increasing vehicle
sales and further investments by OEM’s in the
region. The region is now forecasted to produce
nearly 16.2m units in 2013, the highest number since
2002. Capacity in the region is forecasted to grow
from 15.4m units in 2012 to 18.4m units in 2017.
South America
Sales
Encouraging growth seen in Brazil during the first
2

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half of the year has dissipated, even as the IPI tax
holiday winds down in October. Stimulus measures
including lowered interest rates have been offset by
tighter credit restrictions in lending, restraining fullyear 2013 sales forecast to ~1.3% YoY growth.
Brazil’s auto industry trade group, ANFAVEA, is
aiming to improve the sales climate by lobbying for a
change in leasing requirements that would shift the
onus of taxes and fines from lenders to vehicle
owners. Current leasing structures hold financial
institutions accountable for payment of these fees,
but a transfer of responsibility could encourage
banks to increase lease lending and in turn, boost
auto sales. While no changes have been enacted to
date, the proposed modifications are expected to
pass and could become effective before the end of
the year.
Argentina has enjoyed impressive YoY growth in
new car sales, hitting record highs in the summer
before slowing its pace in August. While the overall
economy is expected to grow at less than 3%, auto
sales have surged in 2013 with imports accounting
for the majority of the growth in sales volume. As
inflation and volatile currency exchanges continue to
dog the economy, cars are considered safer
investments, bolstering sales growth.
Assembly
In contrast to the stagnant sales market, the
assembly volumes in Brazil have seen steady growth
with full-year 2013 assembly expected to reach
~3.4m units. Several global OEMs, including GM,
Volkswagen and Daimler, have announced capacity
investments in the next few years, pushing assembly
to just under 4m units by 2015. More
announcements import tariffs continue
incentivizing OEMs to produce locally. Meanwhile,
Argentinean production has been impacted by the
sluggish Brazilian sales market, seeing an overall
decline in demand from their largest trading
partner. Though assembly has not kept pace with
sales, full year 2013 year growth of ~7.7% is still
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Analyst Note Plus

expected. As with much of region, Argentina’s
expansion hinges on multiple monetary and
economic policy variables, most of which are subject
to significant state intervention and thus remain
volatile.
European Union + EFTA
Key Statistics
(YTD)

% Change
(YoY)

New car sales

-4.0%

Sales forecast (full year)

-3.0%

Regional assembly

-0.9%

Regional 2012-2019 CAGR

+2.5%

Sales
As predicted previously, this past summer is likely to
have marked the bottom of the EU market following
over five years of decline. Q3 2013 saw the first
quarterly YoY growth in two years with a 2.6%
improvement. Full-year registrations are expected to
reach 12.15m – a 3% decline. Within the region,
many markets are beginning to see growth with
some of the hardest hit markets showing signs of
sustained growth. Portuguese sales have increased
over four consecutive months with a 15.7% rise in
the third quarter, and Hungary has experienced
seven consecutive months of gains with a 20%
increase in the third quarter.
Elsewhere, concerns remain regarding France, Italy
and Germany, suggesting that total YoY growth in
the fourth quarter could be lower than seen in the
third quarter. The German market is
underperforming given the low unemployment rates
and strength of consumer sentiment, but it remains
to be seen whether weakness is due, at least in part,
to consumers holding off until the full outcome of
the elections is known. Meanwhile, the UK – the
region's second largest market and also the strongest
performing market this year – has grown 10.8%
year-to-date (YTD). However, fourth quarter YoY
growth will likely be significantly lower, as demand
was particularly strong in late 2012.
For 2014, Autofacts anticipates growth of 3.5% to
just under 12.6m units, with demand being
constrained by continued high unemployment and
weak economic growth in many European countries .
As unemployment is expected to fall through 2014
and economic growth within the region starts to gain
3

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traction towards 2015, demand for new cars should
increase.
Assembly
If assembly output is any indication, the low point
has passed within the EU markets. Indeed, light
vehicle assembly has shown surprisingly strong
growth in select markets in the third quarter, with
OEMs adding capacity and working days for the
production of key models. Autofacts has revised the
EU assembly forecast to 15.8m units for the full
2013, which is a meager 0.9% YoY decline. The 2014
outlook is expected to show signs of recovery with
3.2% growth forecasted as exports stabilise and
vehicle output within the region is more closely tied
to demand growth. Recent announcements
regarding the planned assembly localisation by
select OEMs will boost the assembly topline over the
mid term. Approximately 500k units of assembly
could be added, pushing regional output past the
17m mark by 2015 and also helping to push
utilisation above 80% by 2016.
Eastern Europe
Key Statistics
(YTD)

% Change
(YoY)

Russia new light vehicle registrations

-6.4%

Russia light vehicle assembly

-0.6%

Turkey light vehicle assembly

+12.6%

Regional 2012-2019 CAGR

+6.0%

Sales
New vehicle sales and registrations within the
Eastern European region continue to show diverse
results between markets. Registrations are still on
the downtrend in Russia with seven consecutive
months of decline, prompting ministry officials to
offer interest rate subsidies to stimulate sales. The
program, enacted in July and continuing into 2014,
is expected to boost sales by an estimated 250k
units. Early consumer response has been positive,
resulting in a reduction in the forecasted full-year
decline of 5.9%, down from 6.1%.
After a tough year in 2012, Turkey seemed back on
track with sustained growth in 2013. September
marked the first month of YoY decrease (-2.4%) due
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Analyst Note Plus

to a number of factors, including shrinking domestic
demand and a weakening export market.
Additionally, the Turkish lira has depreciated
against the US dollar due in part to uncertainty
regarding the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying
program. The unfavorable currency rates have
constrained the import market which is primarily
financed through bank loans. This current
contraction is expected to be short lived, with fullyear 2013 sales in Turkey forecasted to reach 840k
units for a 8.2% growth over 2012.
Moderate but sustainable growth is anticipated for
the surrounding Commonwealth of Independent
States (CIS) going into 2014 and beyond, as
countries like Kazakhstan continue to see increases
in domestic demand as well as regional exports.
Assembly
Though the sales market has seen a slowdown in
Russia, assembly remains slightly positive, with an
additional ~12k units of output in 2013 as compared
to 2012 to reach just under 2.1m units. More
definitive growth is expected for 2014 and beyond,
with investments by global OEMs looking to shift
away from importing and increase domestic
production. Turkey is already seeing a boost in
locally produced models, including significant
capacity increases for the Hyundai i10 and Toyota
Corolla. Full-year 2013 production is expected to
total ~1m units and reach nearly 1.2m units by 2014.

Sales
The Japanese light vehicle sales market continues to
post declines, though it should be noted that 2012
growth was due in large part to the eco car cash
incentives that pulled ahead sales. Even so,
Japanese brands continue to struggle within their
home market. Smaller, more efficient vehicles like
minis and hybrids remain popular, increasing their
respective market shares to 41% and 15%. Import
sales volume s, though a relatively low portion of the
total market at 172k units, are also experiencing
robust growth, gaining a full percentage of market
share from 4% to 5%. The long term outlook for the
market as a whole remains bleak as an aging,
urbanised population continues to contract with
demand falling accordingly. Perhaps a silver lining
can be found with the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, which
could stimulate the economy and spur growth in
auto sales.
Vehicle sales in Australia grew to 737k units YTD,
putting the market on pace for another year of sales
surpassing the 1m unit mark. SUVs, particularly
those with diesel engine variants, continue to gain
favor with consumers with a 30% share of the total
market. Meanwhile, once popular domestically
sourced sedans have now dipped below 10% market
share – a reflection of the quickly-shrinking
assembly base.

Other developing CIS nations are expanding
assembly as well, increasing their production
potential in hopes of attracting capacity investments.
The region is rife with opportunity, and as long as
progress continues, these emerging countries could
become future assembly bases as OEMs continue
towards the mantra of “build it where you sell it.”

Consumers in South Korea have shown a marked
shift towards imports, which have jumped 29% YoY
as domestic brands have been holding flat in terms
of sales. Free trade agreements and generous
discounts have made import prices much more
competitive, enticing consumers to shop beyond the
confines of their home market brands. However, the
South Korean population is experiencing
demographic shifts not unlike that of Japan,
suggesting a slower pace of growth in the long-term.

Developed Asia-Pacific
Australia, Japan, and South Korea

Assembly

Key Statistics
(YTD)

% Change
(YoY)

Japan light vehicle sales

-8.0%

South Korea light vehicle sales

+3.0%

Australia light vehicle sales

+4%

Regional assembly

-4.6%


Concurrent declines in domestic sales and export
volumes have resulted in decreased total assembly
volumes in Japan, which are expected to decrease
YoY by 6.8% to reach just over 8.7m for the full year.
Though the Yen exchange rates have become more
favourable to Japanese OEMs in recent months,
investment in R&D centers, powertrain plants, and
supplier parks within growing overseas markets is
expected to continue. This long-term transition will
require an industry-wide focus on addressing excess
capacity going forward.

-1.1%

4

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Analyst Note Plus

With recent withdrawals from the Australian
assembly base, volumes are expected to remain
relatively flat around 250k units for the remainder of
the decade. OEMs are expected to shift their product
mixes to better reflect consumer preferences for
SUVs, but such programs may not be sustainable
should parliament discontinue incentives to retain
manufacturing operations within Australian borders.
Also holding flat are South Korean assembly
volumes, growing at a scant 0.14% YoY to reach just
under 4.4m units. Increasing labor costs, disruptive
strikes, and the strengthening Won are all impacting
the overall appeal of maintaining the country as an
export base, and all will likely be factors as OEMs
reconfigure their global footprint. With these
constraints in mind, total South Korean assembly
volume is forecasted to hover around the 4.5m mark
for the remainder of the forecast window.
Developing Asia-Pacific
China and India
Key Statistics
(YTD)

% Change
(YoY)

China light vehicle sales

+13.5%

China Light vehicle assembly

+11.8%

India light vehicle sales

-8.0%

India light vehicle assembly

-5.1%

Assembly CAGR 2012 to 2019

+7.7%

China
The sales environment in the Chinese market
continued to grow throughout the first three
quarters of the year, supported by strong consumer
demand and a relatively low basis in 2012. YTD light
vehicle sales have reached12.5m units for a positive
gain when compared YoY. SUVs continue to outpace
other segments, reporting an increase of 47.1% in
YTD sales through August. Most major brands have
brought recent introductions and/or refreshed
crossover and SUV models to market to cash in on
this trend.
Sales are expected to remain strong through the
remainder of the year despite economic uncertainty.
Consumer sentiment has improved thanks to the
official implementation of stricter vehicle recall
policies, which are aimed to encourage higher
quality through stiff penalties for delayed recall
5

Autofacts

announcements. This, combined with anticipated
product launches, will help encourage consumers to
visit their local dealerships. Full-year 2013 sales are
expected to reach 18.1m units, a 14.4% increase over
2012. It should be noted that Q4 2012 numbers
were impacted by the territorial dispute over the
Senkaku – Diaoyu islets. The closing months of 2013
should show a marked improvement over 2012 given
the subsequent recovery of Japanese brands.
China light vehicle assembly has also enjoyed
continued expansion, with YTD assembly reaching
13.1m. Japanese brands are expected to increase
their production to continue recovering lost market
share. Though the year started off with slower
production, strong consumer demand has driven
higher levels of assembly, with full-year 2013
assembly expected to reach 18.5m units.
India
Until recently, India was seen as a high-potential,
upcoming market with automakers benefitting
greatly from a burst in consumer-driven growth in
overall consumption, including new light vehicles.
However, the industry is now struggling along with
the national economy. Once growing over 50%
between 2010 to 2012, sales of new vehicles are now
in their ninth consecutive month of decline.
Sagging customer demand has been compounded by
a combination of deflating conditions. The growing
current account deficit– a reflection of the widening
gap between imports and exports – has triggered
fluctuations in the dollar to Rupee exchange rate.
While the currency has rebounded since plunging to
all-time lows in August, the auto sector faces
additional industry-specific hurdles. Utility vehicles,
which reign as one of the most popular segments,
are now subject to a 3% tax, while high financing
costs and rising fuel prices are dampening hopes for
a turnaround in demand.
As monsoon season comes to an end, there is hope
that perhaps the downturn will soon be a thing of
the past, particularly for rural households whose
income has the potential to give a much needed
boost to the Indian light vehicle market. However,
the slow pace of policy reform and the widespread
infrastructure issues will continue to restrain sales
in the short term. Full-year sales is forecasted to
decline by over 5% for 2013, with hope that the new
year will help boost consumer sentiment and in
turn, sustainable growth in sales and assembly for
the remainder of the forecast window.
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Analyst Note Plus

Baseline assembly forecast data - Global
Growth analytics (2012-2017)
Region1

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Unit diff.

% chg

CAGR

1 Asia-Pacific - developing

24,517,872

26,869,862

29,985,847

33,157,119

36,246,221

38,475,473

13,957,601

56.9%

9.4%

62.1%

1

2 European Union

15,915,153

15,770,608

16,267,392

17,494,732

18,342,376

18,756,292

2,841,139

17.9%

3.3%

12.6%

3

3 North America

15,395,983

16,159,124

16,789,907

17,492,206

17,871,117

18,406,259

3,010,276

19.6%

3.6%

13.4%

2

4 Asia-Pacific - developed

13,973,140

13,334,889

13,303,820

13,199,781

13,053,183

13,060,688

-912,452

-6.5%

-1.3%

-4.1%

7

5 South America

4,171,558

4,504,482

4,710,604

5,202,280

5,778,910

6,088,041

1,916,483

45.9%

7.9%

8.5%

4

6 Eastern Europe

3,477,104

3,683,936

3,968,579

4,298,634

4,600,708

4,901,262

1,424,158

41.0%

7.1%

6.3%

5

7 Middle East & Africa

1,798,824

1,508,615

1,561,357

1,688,720

1,862,921

2,041,409

242,585

13.5%

2.6%

1.1%

6

Global total assembly

79,249,634

81,831,516

86,587,506

92,533,472

97,755,436

101,729,424

22,479,790

28.4%

5.1%

100.0%

Global total capacity

101,908,978

106,372,936

112,878,507

120,437,439 125,163,201

125,550,516

23,641,538

23.2%

4.3%

22,659,344

24,541,420

26,291,001

27,903,967

27,407,765

23,821,092

1,161,748

5.1%

1.0%

77.8%

76.9%

76.7%

76.8%

78.1%

81.0%

Global excess capacity
Global utilisation (%)
Country

CTG % Rank2

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Unit diff.

% chg

CAGR

1 China

16,696,064

18,483,049

20,706,735

23,080,285

25,155,718

26,584,689

9,888,625

59.2%

9.7%

44.0%

2 USA

10,097,912

10,899,425

11,668,762

12,239,215

12,568,368

12,915,180

2,817,268

27.9%

5.0%

12.5%

2

3 Japan

9,359,348

8,725,480

8,621,405

8,414,025

8,298,129

8,247,445

-1,111,903

-11.9%

-2.5%

-4.9%

52

4 Germany

5,645,037

5,553,945

5,576,088

5,748,887

5,923,726

6,187,879

542,842

9.6%

1.9%

2.4%

9

5 South Korea

4,384,596

4,390,690

4,427,454

4,521,544

4,501,071

4,550,320

165,724

3.8%

0.7%

0.7%

18

6 India

3,425,285

3,320,802

3,474,624

3,864,083

4,527,925

5,131,886

1,706,601

49.8%

8.4%

7.6%

3

7 Brazil

3,109,008

3,396,837

3,597,534

3,980,955

4,483,115

4,692,702

1,583,694

50.9%

8.6%

7.0%

4

8 Mexico

2,847,732

2,917,970

2,940,150

3,158,454

3,250,892

3,383,961

536,229

18.8%

3.5%

2.4%

10

9 Thailand

2,313,284

2,696,605

2,919,141

3,181,813

3,410,355

3,539,623

1,226,339

53.0%

8.9%

5.5%

5

10 Spain

1,944,656

2,098,781

2,244,922

2,588,567

2,763,196

2,837,222

892,566

45.9%

7.8%

4.0%

6

11 Russia

2,087,860

2,099,680

2,238,099

2,414,108

2,639,883

2,837,315

749,455

35.9%

6.3%

3.3%

7

12 Canada

2,450,339

2,341,729

2,180,995

2,094,537

2,051,857

2,107,118

-343,221

-14.0%

-3.0%

-1.5%

51

13 France

1,950,044

1,822,344

1,926,742

2,017,717

2,235,381

2,319,130

369,086

18.9%

3.5%

1.6%

13

14 United Kingdom

1,558,165

1,592,162

1,557,026

1,685,346

1,711,707

1,733,732

175,567

11.3%

2.2%

0.8%

17

945,577

1,124,017

1,442,492

1,507,317

1,574,886

1,608,903

663,326

70.2%

11.2%

3.0%

8

16 Turkey

1,005,200

1,097,103

1,166,286

1,283,226

1,342,576

1,422,390

417,190

41.5%

7.2%

1.9%

12

17 Czech Republic

15 Indonesia

CTG % Rank
1

1,088,377

1,011,659

1,111,395

1,161,287

1,165,859

1,174,817

86,440

7.9%

1.5%

0.4%

23

18 Italy

635,165

576,438

621,324

957,028

1,109,123

1,167,750

532,585

83.8%

13.0%

2.4%

11

20 Argentina

736,336

793,638

766,387

848,524

906,713

977,053

240,717

32.7%

5.8%

1.1%

15

1,063,403

698,636

677,727

732,501

850,096

976,819

-86,584

-8.1%

-1.7%

-0.4%

49

21 Slovakia

779,411

817,037

831,563

797,388

777,167

718,286

-61,125

-7.8%

-1.6%

-0.3%

48

22 Malaysia

547,478

607,186

765,274

820,421

857,499

881,465

333,987

61.0%

10.0%

1.5%

14

23 Poland

635,841

582,772

556,818

604,160

667,585

654,218

18,377

2.9%

0.6%

0.1%

37

24 South Africa

538,799

537,947

575,975

608,624

619,678

633,263

94,464

17.5%

3.3%

0.4%

22

25 Hungary

230,727

325,140

465,037

497,144

451,645

414,749

184,022

79.8%

12.4%

0.8%

16

26 Belgium

504,633

441,721

414,589

299,944

307,849

318,574

-186,059

-36.9%

-8.8%

-0.8%

50

27 Romania

338,182

411,131

372,907

354,981

348,323

347,065

8,883

2.6%

0.5%

0.0%

41

28 Taiwan

315,922

340,038

355,958

351,517

359,319

354,284

38,362

12.1%

2.3%

0.2%

32

29 Uzbekistan

243,603

265,870

253,494

261,204

267,776

277,983

34,380

14.1%

2.7%

0.2%

33

30 Australia

229,196

218,719

254,961

264,212

253,983

262,923

33,727

14.7%

2.8%

0.2%

34

31 Morocco

108,726

184,962

215,463

232,358

248,195

258,809

150,083

138.0%

18.9%

0.7%

19

32 Sweden

151,183

142,763

150,959

228,177

257,191

259,640

108,457

71.7%

11.4%

0.5%

21

33 Colombia

149,749

151,126

174,995

184,907

188,232

197,079

47,330

31.6%

5.6%

0.2%

28

34 Pakistan

151,814

153,074

163,290

176,051

176,515

181,756

29,942

19.7%

3.7%

0.1%

36

35 Slovenia

130,949

84,881

127,836

166,401

188,409

170,983

40,034

30.6%

5.5%

0.2%

30

78,399,601

80,905,357

85,544,407

91,326,908

96,439,942

100,327,011

21,927,410

28.0%

5.1%

97.5%

98.9%

98.9%

98.8%

98.7%

98.7%

98.6%

97.5%

20 Iran

Top 35 total assembly
Top 35 (% of global total)
1Developed

Asia-Pacific includes Australia, Japan, South Korea | Developing Asia-Pacific includes China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan,
Thailand, Vietnam
2Rankings

based on contribution to total global growth (CTG%).

Source: Autofacts Global Light Vehicle Assembly Outlook 2013 Q4 Data Release (Updated October 01 2013)

6

Autofacts October 2013

For more information please visit us at www.autofacts.com

Analyst Note Plus

Alliance group

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Unit diff.

% chg

CAGR

10,589,068

10,665,006

10,836,569

11,022,746

11,174,085

11,411,592

822,524

7.8%

1.5%

3.7%

9

2 GM Group

9,375,145

9,803,594

10,218,378

10,766,942

11,639,801

12,161,075

2,785,930

29.7%

5.3%

12.4%

1

3 VW Group

9,184,443

9,563,663

9,900,626

10,661,606

11,527,849

11,954,017

2,769,574

30.2%

5.4%

12.3%

2

4 Renault-Nissan

8,023,485

8,048,195

8,839,747

9,689,230

10,176,969

10,536,836

2,513,351

31.3%

5.6%

11.2%

3

5 Hyundai Group

7,182,498

7,520,959

7,827,461

7,959,059

8,404,049

8,744,268

1,561,770

21.7%

4.0%

6.9%

6

6 Ford Group

5,456,831

6,067,175

6,304,561

6,794,493

7,191,385

7,393,243

1,936,412

35.5%

6.3%

8.6%

4

7 Fiat Group

4,402,225

4,309,137

4,399,083

5,049,898

5,737,443

6,152,532

1,750,307

39.8%

6.9%

7.8%

5

8 Honda Group

4,069,175

4,390,264

4,960,185

5,299,797

5,393,121

5,501,202

1,432,027

35.2%

6.2%

6.4%

7

9 PSA Group

3,079,569

3,159,426

3,372,918

3,620,519

3,778,591

3,975,185

895,616

29.1%

5.2%

4.0%

8

10 Suzuki Group

2,455,203

2,306,651

2,352,701

2,444,991

2,463,554

2,689,893

234,690

9.6%

1.8%

1.0%

19

11 BMW Group

1,917,852

2,044,141

2,077,931

2,197,657

2,313,997

2,404,673

486,821

25.4%

4.6%

2.2%

14

12 Daimler Group

1,732,727

1,864,060

1,982,371

2,144,347

2,145,872

2,293,872

561,145

32.4%

5.8%

2.5%

11

13 Mazda

1,327,881

1,423,460

1,619,898

1,724,378

1,746,766

1,827,489

499,608

37.6%

6.6%

2.2%

13

14 Mitsubishi Group

1,104,103

1,189,377

1,419,732

1,525,383

1,498,254

1,502,978

398,875

36.1%

6.4%

1.8%

15

943,756

979,823

1,110,975

1,303,174

1,385,152

1,466,287

522,531

55.4%

9.2%

2.3%

12

1,035,616
899,508

1,064,493
885,910

1,163,735
977,618

1,237,841
1,185,363

1,284,361
1,367,344

1,273,957
1,492,758

238,341
593,250

23.0%
66.0%

4.2%
10.7%

1.1%
2.6%

18
10

18 Great Wall

645,497

758,574

760,880

812,508

894,764

943,531

298,034

46.2%

7.9%

1.3%

17

19 Dong Feng

680,771

728,580

734,864

745,966

734,991

760,980

80,209

11.8%

2.3%

0.4%

28

20 Chery Auto

590,701

518,147

654,291

755,285

878,192

938,311

347,610

58.8%

9.7%

1.5%

16


74,696,054

77,290,635

81,514,524

86,941,183

91,736,540

95,424,679

20,728,625

27.8%

5.0%

92.2%

Top 20 total capacity

92,760,354

96,903,411

102,374,547

109,595,395 113,841,435

114,250,431

21,490,077

23.2%

4.3%

90.9%

Excess capacity

18,064,300

19,612,776

20,860,023

22,654,212

22,104,895

18,825,752

761,452

4.2%

0.8%

100.0%

80.5%

79.8%

79.6%

79.3%

80.6%

83.5%

Unit diff.

% chg

CAGR

5,729,959 4896.0%

118.6%

1 Toyota Group

15 Geely Group
16 Chang'an Group
17 Tata Group

Global utilisation (%)

Platform

CTG % Rank

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

117,033

1,052,806

2,024,485

4,227,384

5,573,664

5,846,992

25.5%

1

2 HD

2,476,850

2,864,858

2,902,775

2,878,964

3,023,216

3,242,786

765,936

30.9%

5.5%

3.4%

16

3 MC (Toyota Motor Corporation)

3,186,827

3,327,878

3,243,274

2,997,011

2,541,209

1,707,308

-1,479,519

-46.4%

-11.7%

-6.6%

385

4 C1/P1

2,081,575

2,400,903

2,237,893

2,396,493

2,364,356

2,464,502

382,927

18.4%

3.4%

1.7%

33

5 PQ35/46 (A5)

4,106,435

3,232,515

2,678,048

1,630,627

1,069,452

985,782

-3,120,653

-76.0%

-24.8%

-13.9%

386

6 X85/B

1,913,339

1,871,375

1,939,999

2,024,664

2,018,795

2,100,670

187,331

9.8%

1.9%

0.8%

54

7 GLOBAL DELTA

1,528,738

1,560,474

1,621,395

1,808,573

2,067,817

2,729,367

1,200,629

78.5%

12.3%

5.3%

7

8 NF

1,619,693

1,662,940

1,621,534

1,768,305

1,971,117

1,965,553

345,860

21.4%

3.9%

1.5%

36

9 HGSC

1,266,551

1,447,107

1,815,615

1,808,260

1,872,370

2,008,536

741,985

58.6%

9.7%

3.3%

17

866,609

1,393,223

1,530,607

1,753,717

2,123,744

2,231,576

1,364,967

157.5%

20.8%

6.1%

4

11 NBC

1,760,019

1,651,163

1,712,460

1,735,907

1,546,558

1,184,579

-575,440

-32.7%

-7.6%

-2.6%

381

12 MINICAB

1,458,294

1,496,369

1,486,542

1,502,337

1,494,700

1,568,384

110,090

7.5%

1.5%

0.5%

66

951,239

1,186,428

1,404,946

1,625,478

1,772,018

1,800,726

849,487

89.3%

13.6%

3.8%

14

14 CARRY

1,426,999

1,269,537

1,365,217

1,354,239

1,313,850

1,267,985

-159,014

-11.1%

-2.3%

-0.7%

355

15 150L

1,278,209

1,251,645

1,470,783

1,378,790

1,284,355

1,295,452

17,243

1.3%

0.3%

0.1%

134

16 X84/C

1,712,659

1,668,120

1,237,912

1,071,481

937,252

1,053,111

-659,548

-38.5%

-9.3%

-2.9%

382

17 B0 (Renault)

1,006,884

1,150,378

1,172,712

1,299,304

1,466,716

1,582,058

575,174

57.1%

9.5%

2.6%

24

18 FIAT/GM 199/4400

1,344,607

1,294,877

1,330,435

1,348,548

977,569

908,544

-436,063

-32.4%

-7.5%

-1.9%

373

19 MLB

1,001,953

1,063,384

1,130,168

1,208,039

1,247,614

1,462,622

460,669

46.0%

7.9%

2.0%

27

20 IMV

1,134,149

1,103,028

1,136,577

1,159,559

1,175,258

1,202,112

67,963

6.0%

1.2%

0.3%

87

32,238,662

33,949,008

35,063,377

36,977,680

37,841,630

38,608,645

6,369,983

19.8%

3.7%

28.3%

40.7%

41.5%

40.5%

40.0%

38.7%

38.0%

28.3%

1 MQB

10 GLOBAL GAMMA

13 B2E


7


CTG % Rank


Analyst Note Plus

Brand

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Unit diff.

% chg

CAGR

1 Toyota

8,227,545

8,271,188

8,367,027

8,460,881

8,572,841

8,766,240

538,695

6.5%

1.3%

2.4%

10

2 Volkswagen

6,265,324

6,477,696

6,532,405

7,015,506

7,494,991

7,645,970

1,380,646

22.0%

4.1%

6.1%

3

3 Ford

5,371,299

5,965,254

6,169,705

6,605,414

6,898,364

7,086,488

1,715,189

31.9%

5.7%

7.6%

1

4 Chevrolet

4,850,991

5,114,329

5,475,092

5,781,409

6,141,961

6,353,937

1,502,946

31.0%

5.5%

6.7%

2

5 Nissan

4,618,921

4,637,039

5,161,325

5,378,728

5,370,883

5,476,366

857,445

18.6%

3.5%

3.8%

6

6 Hyundai

4,465,491

4,694,422

4,926,928

4,962,462

5,245,108

5,521,091

1,055,600

23.6%

4.3%

4.7%

5

7 Honda

3,823,990

4,162,206

4,722,123

4,991,291

4,970,857

5,075,245

1,251,255

32.7%

5.8%

5.6%

4

8 Kia

2,700,661

2,805,246

2,853,117

2,949,761

3,110,401

3,177,150

476,489

17.6%

3.3%

2.1%

16

9 Renault

2,124,621

2,057,784

2,098,533

2,344,529

2,653,007

2,740,043

615,422

29.0%

5.2%

2.7%

9

10 Peugeot

1,812,031

1,828,337

1,906,724

2,038,037

2,148,825

2,215,384

403,353

22.3%

4.1%

1.8%

17

11 Fiat

1,873,105

1,748,878

1,691,534

1,865,835

2,241,599

2,390,468

517,363

27.6%

5.0%

2.3%

13

12 Mercedes-Benz

1,624,676

1,772,002

1,887,606

1,994,294

1,990,951

2,148,261

523,585

32.2%

5.7%

2.3%

12

13 BMW

1,603,075

1,708,872

1,760,604

1,842,465

1,898,369

1,972,730

369,655

23.1%

4.2%

1.6%

19

14 Audi

1,469,197

1,601,384

1,703,028

1,850,000

1,894,584

2,004,078

534,881

36.4%

6.4%

2.4%

11

15 Mazda

1,327,881

1,423,460

1,619,898

1,724,378

1,746,766

1,827,489

499,608

37.6%

6.6%

2.2%

14

16 Suzuki

1,460,480

1,397,280

1,523,926

1,556,303

1,573,492

1,600,919

140,439

9.6%

1.9%

0.6%

42

17 Citroen

1,267,538

1,331,089

1,466,194

1,582,482

1,629,766

1,759,801

492,263

38.8%

6.8%

2.2%

15

18 Wuling

1,383,305

1,403,522

1,450,579

1,462,938

1,449,767

1,520,944

137,639

10.0%

1.9%

0.6%

43

19 Mitsubishi

1,030,404

1,091,331

1,307,396

1,419,515

1,399,817

1,407,209

376,805

36.6%

6.4%

1.7%

18

875,260

1,032,722

1,060,289

1,216,206

1,516,421

1,547,200

671,940

76.8%

12.1%

3.0%

8

58,175,795

60,524,041

63,684,033

67,042,434

69,948,770

72,237,013

14,061,218

24.2%

4.4%

62.6%

73.4%

74.0%

73.5%

72.5%

71.6%

71.0%

62.6%

20 Buick

Brand Nameplate

CTG % Rank

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Unit diff.

% chg

CAGR

1 Toyota Corolla

1,198,249

1,170,453

1,263,224

1,229,445

1,210,340

1,262,997

64,748

5.4%

1.1%

0.3%

2 Ford Focus

1,040,077

1,129,343

995,605

932,617

1,054,209

1,127,210

87,133

8.4%

1.6%

0.4%

77

3 Ford F-Series

843,933

919,729

1,005,660

902,832

900,534

898,655

54,722

6.5%

1.3%

0.2%

164

4 Toyota Camry

858,421

869,499

859,040

885,685

909,514

905,243

46,822

5.5%

1.1%

0.2%

198

5 Hyundai Elantra/i30

764,844

848,300

809,436

786,054

833,925

951,760

186,916

24.4%

4.5%

0.8%

13

6 Ford Fiesta

715,832

738,415

744,515

800,067

884,818

911,348

195,516

27.3%

4.9%

0.9%

11

7 Volkswagen Golf

626,208

625,196

751,348

899,098

929,705

927,212

301,004

48.1%

8.2%

1.3%

3

8 Chevrolet Cruze

769,470

734,015

745,464

750,894

783,559

775,603

6,133

0.8%

0.2%

0.0%

671

9 Honda CR-V

698,421

755,687

732,287

708,466

742,042

759,634

61,213

8.8%

1.7%

0.3%

138

10 Honda Civic

717,377

717,557

702,871

704,883

688,399

711,500

-5,877

-0.8%

-0.2%

0.0% 1223

11 Volkswagen Polo

668,642

648,143

650,729

656,977

758,350

795,367

126,725

19.0%

3.5%

0.6%

12 Volkswagen Passat

604,468

589,736

586,680

646,510

710,959

720,783

116,315

19.2%

3.6%

0.5%

43

13 Toyota Hilux Vigo

622,860

610,336

618,250

627,410

630,375

648,206

25,346

4.1%

0.8%

0.1%

350

14 Honda Accord

546,470

650,989

644,158

629,568

647,501

637,089

90,619

16.6%

3.1%

0.4%

75

15 Hyundai Sonata/i40

549,618

524,553

520,309

538,938

619,641

630,478

80,860

14.7%

2.8%

0.4%

87

16 Hyundai Tucson/iX35

554,374

556,181

502,803

520,611

548,174

591,701

37,327

6.7%

1.3%

0.2%

257

17 Chevrolet Silverado

508,821

544,182

563,009

557,899

542,655

555,155

46,334

9.1%

1.8%

0.2%

201

18 Toyota Prius

497,279

564,866

530,193

539,133

533,252

538,900

41,621

8.4%

1.6%

0.2%

229

19 Wuling Sunshine

523,274

489,196

510,193

531,231

540,363

569,756

46,482

8.9%

1.7%

0.2%

200

20 Chang'an SC63/10 Series

500,466

445,529

514,137

498,217

512,854

450,694

-49,772

-9.9%

-2.1%

-0.2% 1407

13,809,104

14,131,905

14,249,911

14,346,535

14,981,169

15,369,291

1,560,187

11.3%

2.2%

6.9%

17.4%

17.3%

16.5%

15.5%

15.3%

15.1%

6.9%


8


CTG % Rank
128

37


Analyst Note Plus

Baseline forecast data – Global powertrain
Engine family [designer]

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Unit diff.

1 EA111/112 [VW]

3,414,936

3,356,226

3,266,139

3,230,542

3,405,180

3,468,237

53,301

1.6%

4.3%

3.4%

2 S [Renault-Nissan]

1,756,871

2,127,014

2,808,964

3,420,220

3,671,494

3,810,050

2,053,179

116.9%

2.2%

3.7%

3 EA827/113/888 [VW]

2,598,229

2,665,235

2,679,033

2,760,162

2,765,665

2,866,637

268,408

10.3%

3.3%

2.8%

4 ZR [Toyota]

2,148,885

2,291,669

2,500,852

2,550,732

2,560,730

2,610,486

461,601

21.5%

2.7%

2.6%

5 MZR/DURATEC HE [Mazda]

1,805,436

2,336,083

2,442,014

2,659,292

2,736,796

2,674,534

869,098

48.1%

2.3%

2.6%

6 EA086/153/188 [VW]

2,282,942

2,169,089

2,276,353

2,453,432

2,530,271

2,560,066

277,124

12.1%

2.9%

2.5%

7 THETA II [Hyundai]

1,890,154

2,200,145

2,258,047

2,421,793

2,696,162

2,706,911

816,757

43.2%

2.4%

2.7%

8 K [Renault]

1,943,259

1,897,181

1,828,708

1,857,900

2,069,408

2,258,459

315,200

16.2%

2.5%

2.2%

9 GAMMA [Hyundai]

1,772,230

1,842,755

1,965,435

1,932,504

2,055,027

2,196,655

424,425

23.9%

2.2%

2.2%

10 BDOHC [GM Korea]

2,215,959

2,165,925

2,251,687

1,864,963

1,574,707

1,592,304

-623,655

-28.1%

2.8%

1.6%

21,828,901

23,051,322

24,277,232

25,151,540

26,065,440

26,744,339

4,915,438

22.5%

27.5%

26.3%

27.5%

28.2%

28.0%

27.2%

26.7%

26.3%

21.9%

2017

Unit diff.

Top 10 total consumption
Top 10 (% of total consumption)

Engine size

% chg 2012 share 2017 share

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

1 1001-1600 cc

30,149,695

30,770,538

33,006,549

35,560,069

38,688,008

40,751,424 10,601,729

35.2%

38.0%

40.1%

2 1601-2000 cc

17,015,238

18,412,102

19,371,580

20,646,661

21,148,932

21,947,148

4,931,910

29.0%

21.5%

21.6%

3 2001-3000 cc

14,705,773

14,888,044

15,682,133

16,695,787

17,378,671

17,726,767

3,020,994

20.5%

18.6%

17.4%

4 0000-1000 cc

7,574,307

7,885,250

8,647,673

9,764,231

10,611,788

11,175,270

3,600,963

47.5%

9.6%

11.0%

5 3001-4000 cc

6,414,192

6,316,974

6,169,579

6,087,014

5,997,114

5,998,222

-415,970

-6.5%

8.1%

5.9%

6 4001-9999 cc

3,263,626

3,335,510

3,192,739

3,028,066

3,008,237

3,101,208

-162,418

-5.0%

4.1%

3.0%

126,803

223,098

517,253

751,644

922,686

1,029,385

902,582

711.8%

0.2%

1.0%

79,249,634

81,831,516

86,587,506

92,533,472

97,755,436

101,729,424 22,479,790

28.4%

100.0%

100.0%

7 Electric
Total consumption

Fuel type

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

1 Combustion Gasoline

61,779,916

63,855,123

67,292,024

71,558,019

75,191,834

78,018,013 16,238,097

26.3%

78.0%

76.7%

2 Combustion Diesel

15,292,829

15,217,745

15,752,418

16,724,752

17,626,980

18,283,540

2,990,711

19.6%

19.3%

18.0%

3 Hybrid (Mild+Full)

1,999,550

2,416,983

2,809,404

3,025,169

3,331,384

3,532,537

1,532,987

76.7%

2.5%

3.5%

177,339

341,665

733,660

1,225,532

1,605,238

1,895,334

1,717,995

968.8%

0.2%

1.9%

79,249,634

81,831,516

86,587,506

92,533,472

97,755,436

101,729,424 22,479,790

28.4%

100.0%

100.0%

4 PEV+PHEV (Electric)
Total consumption

Transmission outlook

2017

Unit diff.



2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Unit diff.

1 Manual

39,152,396

39,052,823

40,698,632

42,988,328

45,251,460

46,982,459

7,830,063

20.0%

49.4%

46.2%

2 Automatic

28,487,636

29,106,005

29,857,143

30,888,524

31,662,127

32,155,958

3,668,322

12.9%

35.9%

31.6%

3 Continuously Variable

7,981,726

9,022,516

10,141,040

10,588,283

10,852,375

11,748,211

3,766,485

47.2%

10.1%

11.5%

4 Automated Manual Double Clutch

2,713,382

3,598,498

4,429,636

6,240,362

7,938,564

8,620,185

5,906,803

217.7%

3.4%

8.5%

5 Automated Manual

747,186

751,928

821,454

921,636

948,034

966,354

219,168

29.3%

0.9%

0.9%

6 Electric

159,725

285,797

612,280

870,393

1,066,327

1,216,508

1,056,783

661.6%

0.2%

1.2%

7,583

13,949

27,321

35,946

36,549

39,749

32,166

424.2%

0.0%

0.0%

79,249,634

81,831,516

86,587,506

92,533,472

97,755,436

101,729,424 22,479,790

28.4%

100.0%

100.0%

7 Automatic Hybrid
Total consumption

Gear outlook


2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Unit diff.

1 5

33,271,625

31,894,051

31,766,442

32,503,283

33,443,665

33,942,182

670,557

2.0%

42.0%

33.4%

2 6

25,798,685

28,421,387

30,242,886

31,361,705

32,862,715

33,375,583

7,576,898

29.4%

32.6%

32.8%


7,981,726

9,022,516

10,141,040

10,588,283

10,852,375

11,748,211

3,766,485

47.2%

10.1%

11.5%

4 4

8,165,088

6,828,777

6,548,392

6,520,060

6,330,262

6,508,562 -1,656,526

-20.3%

10.3%

6.4%

5 8 or more

1,641,332

2,676,620

3,895,200

5,794,600

7,008,090

8,245,573

6,604,241

402.4%

2.1%

8.1%

6 7

2,129,034

2,601,317

3,189,081

4,700,574

5,999,997

6,500,319

4,371,285

205.3%

2.7%

6.4%

262,144

386,848

804,465

1,064,967

1,258,332

1,408,994

1,146,850

437.5%

0.3%

1.4%

79,249,634

81,831,516

86,587,506

92,533,472

97,755,436

101,729,424 22,479,790

28.4%

100.0%

100.0%

7 3 or less
Total consumption

9




Analyst Note Plus

Baseline assembly forecast data – North America

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

10

Alliance group
GM Group
Ford Group
Fiat Group
Toyota Group
Honda Group
Renault-Nissan
Hyundai Group
VW Group
BMW Group
Daimler Group
Excess capacity
Utilisation (%)

Growth analytics
Unit diff.
% chg
528,073
16.3%
307,322
11.0%
358,513
15.2%
346,619
17.7%
160,764
9.5%
378,615
29.1%
345,616
48.0%
279,988
37.1%
9,456
3.1%
91,089
47.7%
2,806,055
18.3%
3,936,516
24.6%
1,130,461 157.1%

(2012-2017)
CAGR CTG % Rank
3.1%
17.5%
1
2.1%
10.2%
6
2.9%
11.9%
3
3.3%
11.5%
4
1.8%
5.3%
8
5.2%
12.6%
2
8.2%
11.5%
5
6.5%
9.3%
7
0.6%
0.3%
13
8.1%
3.0%
10
3.4%
93.2%
4.5%
94.9%
20.8% 100.0%

2017
651,173
1,086,592
879,899
724,166
781,156
576,577
735,037
939,354
199,989
516,001
7,089,944
38.5%

Unit diff.
-436,058
1,086,592
357,509
65,419
200,606
99,505
629,029
571,941
-547,025
94,412
2,121,930
70.5%

% chg
-40.1%
0.0%
68.4%
9.9%
34.6%
20.9%
593.4%
155.7%
-73.2%
22.4%
42.7%

CAGR
-9.7%
0.0%
11.0%
1.9%
6.1%
3.9%
47.3%
20.7%
-23.2%
4.1%
7.4%

CTG % Rank
-14.5%
83
36.1%
1
11.9%
8
2.2%
28
6.7%
14
3.3%
23
20.9%
5
19.0%
6
-18.2%
84
3.1%
25
70.5%

2016
2,861,965
2,488,787
1,810,730
1,623,551
1,633,605
963,225
907,862
433,539
564,859
666,248
13,954,371
78.1%

2017
2,898,000
2,532,967
1,880,902
1,632,965
1,626,302
1,049,423
885,207
426,868
604,034
728,780
14,265,448
77.5%

Unit diff.
178,599
263,235
194,605
117,997
359,440
334,775
129,531
-283,126
65,025
269,341
1,629,422
54.1%

% chg
6.6%
11.6%
11.5%
7.8%
28.4%
46.8%
17.1%
-39.9%
12.1%
58.6%
12.9%

CAGR
1.3%
2.2%
2.2%
1.5%
5.1%
8.0%
3.2%
-9.7%
2.3%
9.7%
2.5%

CTG % Rank
5.9%
8
8.7%
4
6.5%
6
3.9%
12
11.9%
1
11.1%
2
4.3%
10
-9.4%
33
2.2%
19
8.9%
3
54.1%

2016
889,487
539,262
460,093
450,767
401,818
376,833
356,081
339,266
342,816
331,216
4,487,639
25.1%

2017
887,480
551,422
516,001
474,471
383,819
392,167
371,404
361,934
340,284
337,143
4,616,125
25.1%

Unit diff.
52,814
46,039
94,412
21,508
-16,324
-3,720
6,067
30,633
5,574
-18,721
218,282
7.3%

% chg
6.3%
9.1%
22.4%
4.7%
-4.1%
-0.9%
1.7%
9.2%
1.7%
-5.3%
5.0%

CAGR
1.2%
1.8%
4.1%
0.9%
-0.8%
-0.2%
0.3%
1.8%
0.3%
-1.1%
1.0%

CTG % Rank
1.8%
28
1.5%
33
3.1%
16
0.7%
65
-0.5% 179
-0.1% 160
0.2% 107
1.0%
55
0.2% 113
-0.6% 182
7.3%

2012
3,233,624
2,804,933
2,362,712
1,957,777
1,690,235
1,299,613
719,547
755,676
301,522
191,138
15,316,777
16,036,254
719,477
95.5%

2013
3,353,386
3,097,854
2,378,365
2,033,206
1,746,421
1,506,247
772,250
692,254
294,978
200,360
16,075,321
17,496,197
1,420,876
91.9%

2014
3,555,004
3,095,074
2,454,763
2,094,721
1,808,869
1,665,693
785,329
623,854
329,398
231,797
16,644,502
18,431,696
1,787,194
90.3%

2015
3,639,624
3,049,890
2,527,266
2,198,890
1,831,129
1,724,857
812,361
842,641
333,285
291,505
17,251,448
19,240,881
1,989,433
89.7%

2016
3,643,931
3,072,439
2,568,452
2,182,037
1,845,262
1,685,712
1,016,748
1,005,165
320,031
269,067
17,608,844
19,867,052
2,258,208
88.6%

2017
3,761,697
3,112,255
2,721,225
2,304,396
1,850,999
1,678,228
1,065,163
1,035,664
310,978
282,227
18,122,832
19,972,770
1,849,938
90.7%

2012
1,087,231
0
522,390
658,747
580,550
477,072
106,008
367,413
747,014
421,589
4,968,014
32.3%

2013
1,202,887
392,098
741,455
712,974
574,080
593,395
400,516
375,492
690,759
445,699
6,129,355
37.9%

2014
1,232,624
1,002,933
730,432
799,792
620,366
558,823
551,842
387,485
623,854
502,190
7,010,341
41.8%

2015
1,313,876
1,083,075
724,019
716,284
658,052
599,773
743,843
445,827
398,051
481,511
7,164,311
41.0%

2016
1,036,343
1,039,999
863,983
707,519
805,394
587,085
728,133
484,469
199,237
460,093
6,912,255
38.7%

Brand
Ford
Chevrolet
Toyota
Honda
Nissan
Jeep
Volkswagen
Dodge
GMC
Hyundai
Top 10 (% of regional total)

2012
2,719,401
2,269,732
1,686,297
1,514,968
1,266,862
714,648
755,676
709,994
539,009
459,439
12,636,026
82.1%

2013
2,995,933
2,321,941
1,780,370
1,590,046
1,457,980
726,755
692,254
752,710
579,508
504,933
13,402,430
82.9%

2014
2,960,218
2,460,237
1,816,785
1,629,393
1,623,200
891,250
623,854
592,601
587,274
520,438
13,705,250
81.6%

2015
2,893,452
2,480,018
1,860,702
1,652,297
1,686,448
932,263
842,641
567,238
590,743
516,613
14,022,415
80.2%

Brand nameplate
Ford F-Series
Chevrolet Silverado
Ram Pickup
Toyota Camry
Honda Accord
Honda Civic
Toyota Corolla
Ford Escape
Nissan Altima
Honda CR-V

2012
834,666
505,383
421,589
452,963
400,143
395,887
365,337
331,301
334,710
355,864
4,397,843
28.6%

2013
911,755
541,875
445,699
458,683
452,927
436,668
333,685
377,724
388,225
393,999
4,741,240
29.3%

2014
995,721
559,482
502,190
446,077
411,626
401,553
386,216
360,271
360,048
352,140
4,775,324
28.4%

2015
893,225
554,133
481,511
474,106
392,213
391,886
372,556
355,503
349,121
334,172
4,598,426
26.3%

Platform
MC (Toyota Motor Corporation)
K2XX
C1/P1
T1 (Ford Motor Company)
NF
D (Renault-Nissan)
CD4
GLOBAL DELTA
PQ35/46 (A5)
DS



Analyst Note Plus

Baseline assembly forecast data – South America

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

11

Growth analytics
Unit diff.
% chg
267,606
28.3%
294,777
34.3%
148,191
18.8%
94,295
19.3%
162,044
44.0%
145,089
61.9%
170,987 205.4%
68,602
40.5%
157,301 160.1%
125,016 796.6%
1,633,908
40.3%
2,236,888
41.6%
602,980
45.5%

(2012-2017)
CAGR CTG % Rank
5.1%
14.0%
2
6.1%
15.4%
1
3.5%
7.7%
6
3.6%
4.9%
10
7.6%
8.5%
4
10.1%
7.6%
7
25.0%
8.9%
3
7.0%
3.6%
12
21.1%
8.2%
5
55.1%
6.5%
8
7.0%
85.3%
7.2%
81.5%
7.8% 100.0%

Alliance group
VW Group
Fiat Group
GM Group
Renault-Nissan
Ford Group
PSA Group
Hyundai Group
Toyota Group
Honda Group
Chery Auto
Excess capacity
Utilisation (%)

2012
945,427
858,874
787,834
488,987
368,215
234,408
83,229
169,369
98,237
15,694
4,050,274
5,376,277
1,326,003
75.3%

2013
963,893
805,401
913,483
408,550
395,117
303,274
188,094
177,308
175,580
46,588
4,377,288
6,107,207
1,729,919
71.7%

2014
962,273
780,153
918,870
466,714
480,723
289,886
214,813
190,842
173,393
74,303
4,551,970
6,531,345
1,979,375
69.7%

2015
1,054,626
841,067
916,643
527,510
505,577
361,694
251,019
203,303
176,672
82,436
4,920,547
7,110,641
2,190,094
69.2%

2016
1,170,058
1,055,056
923,681
548,698
518,043
367,311
254,380
216,431
235,893
129,554
5,419,105
7,525,440
2,106,335
72.0%

2017
1,213,033
1,153,651
936,025
583,282
530,259
379,497
254,216
237,971
255,538
140,710
5,684,182
7,613,165
1,928,983
74.7%

Platform
PQ24 (AO4)
FIAT/GM 199/4400
GLOBAL GAMMA
B2E
GM4200
B0 (Renault)
PQ25 (AO5)
HGSC
PF1
X85/B

2012
759,551
500,063
97,798
41,209
420,106
297,760
69,306
33,010
57,750
92,450
2,369,003
56.8%

2013
775,680
507,615
365,608
138,127
280,030
159,656
70,515
150,439
119,481
120,507
2,687,658
59.7%

2014
738,414
583,148
420,730
319,918
242,089
167,782
130,790
175,944
117,122
107,536
3,003,473
63.8%

2015
572,389
632,438
462,171
369,831
207,421
186,324
286,503
181,674
157,166
124,226
3,180,143
61.1%

2016
578,646
663,040
458,936
375,402
216,914
186,893
293,735
177,201
158,858
132,810
3,242,435
56.1%

2017
597,302
680,860
512,863
375,406
220,362
196,439
301,448
171,854
118,939
140,887
3,316,360
54.5%

Unit diff.
-162,249
180,797
415,065
334,197
-199,744
-101,321
232,142
138,844
61,189
48,437
947,357
49.4%

% chg
-21.4%
36.2%
424.4%
811.0%
-47.5%
-34.0%
335.0%
420.6%
106.0%
52.4%
40.0%

CAGR
-4.7%
6.4%
39.3%
55.6%
-12.1%
-8.0%
34.2%
39.1%
15.5%
8.8%
7.0%

CTG % Rank
-8.5%
93
9.4%
5
21.7%
1
17.4%
2
-10.4%
95
-5.3%
91
12.1%
4
7.2%
7
3.2%
13
2.5%
17
49.4%

Brand
Volkswagen
Chevrolet
Fiat
Ford
Renault
Peugeot
Toyota
Hyundai
Honda
Citroen

2012
945,427
787,834
843,561
368,215
422,171
148,033
169,369
71,554
98,237
86,375
3,940,776
94.5%

2013
963,893
913,483
784,090
395,117
378,824
180,201
177,308
176,726
175,580
123,073
4,268,295
94.8%

2014
962,273
918,870
744,820
480,723
375,148
172,264
190,842
202,976
173,393
117,622
4,338,931
92.1%

2015
1,019,863
916,643
801,762
505,577
414,107
228,343
203,303
239,274
176,672
133,351
4,638,895
89.2%

2016
1,114,418
923,681
928,025
518,043
433,502
233,048
216,431
242,347
235,893
134,263
4,979,651
86.2%

2017
1,154,030
936,025
1,020,378
530,259
460,280
238,975
237,971
242,080
255,538
140,522
5,216,058
85.7%

Unit diff.
208,603
148,191
176,817
162,044
38,109
90,942
68,602
170,526
157,301
54,147
1,275,282
66.5%

% chg
22.1%
18.8%
21.0%
44.0%
9.0%
61.4%
40.5%
238.3%
160.1%
62.7%
32.4%

CAGR
4.1%
3.5%
3.9%
7.6%
1.7%
10.1%
7.0%
27.6%
21.1%
10.2%
5.8%

CTG % Rank
10.9%
1
7.7%
6
9.2%
2
8.5%
4
2.0%
17
4.7%
8
3.6%
12
8.9%
3
8.2%
5
2.8%
15
66.5%

Brand nameplate
Volkswagen Gol
Fiat Uno
Fiat Palio
Chevrolet Onix
Volkswagen Fox
Ford Fiesta
Hyundai HB20
Fiat Siena
Fiat Strada
Ford Ka

2012
402,001
262,653
193,324
13,333
197,932
109,950
33,010
100,821
130,087
91,025
1,534,136
36.8%

2013
405,152
192,933
203,717
205,547
206,494
155,676
150,439
106,450
110,785
40,416
1,777,609
39.5%

2014
430,619
179,145
203,923
231,363
200,567
183,147
142,981
97,875
103,238
104,330
1,877,188
39.9%

2015
423,545
223,120
203,485
255,071
192,382
139,474
144,428
108,965
93,814
131,787
1,916,071
36.8%

2016
431,840
281,365
196,509
253,599
194,710
136,056
138,457
111,200
94,572
122,371
1,960,679
33.9%

2017
443,059
289,874
210,272
245,604
204,752
143,346
134,946
119,880
103,383
119,428
2,014,544
33.1%

Unit diff.
% chg
41,058
10.2%
27,221
10.4%
16,948
8.8%
232,271 1742.1%
6,820
3.4%
33,396
30.4%
101,936 308.8%
19,059
18.9%
-26,704
-20.5%
28,403
31.2%
480,408
31.3%
25.1%

CAGR
2.0%
2.0%
1.7%
79.1%
0.7%
5.4%
32.5%
3.5%
-4.5%
5.6%
5.6%

CTG % Rank
2.1%
15
1.4%
36
0.9%
54
12.1%
1
0.4%
78
1.7%
26
5.3%
2
1.0%
53
-1.4% 164
1.5%
33
25.1%



Analyst Note Plus

Baseline forecast data – North and South America
North America: fuel type and delivery by % share
2012 - 2017

North America: weighted engine displacement
2012 - 2017 (cubic centimeters)

70%

3,200

50%

80%

3,300

60%

100%

3,100

60%

40%

40%

30%
20%

20%

3,000
2,900

10%
0%

0%
2012

2013

Gasoline

2014

Diesel

2015

Hybrid

2016

PEV+PHEV

2,800
2,700
2012

2017

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

DI


2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Unit diff.

12,182,823

12,402,325

12,432,275

12,657,407

12,640,350

12,438,793

255,970

2.1%

79.1%

67.6%


1,268,622

1,827,971

2,279,463

2,413,187

2,492,063

3,029,426

1,760,804

138.8%

8.2%

16.5%

3 Manual

1,264,125

1,149,347

1,156,915

1,072,466

1,018,436

998,991

-265,134

-21.0%

8.2%

5.4%

639,985

675,519

775,139

1,172,113

1,503,160

1,648,421

1,008,436

157.6%

4.2%

9.0%

40,428

98,723

134,362

164,525

189,104

243,714

203,286

502.8%

0.3%

1.3%

6 Automated Manual

0

5,239

11,753

12,508

28,004

46,914

46,914

0.0%

0.0%

0.3%

Total consumption

15,395,983

16,159,124

16,789,907

17,492,206

17,871,117

18,406,259

3,010,276

19.6%

100.0%

100.0%

1 Automatic

5 Electric

South America: fuel type and delivery by % share
2012 - 2017

% chg 2012 share

2017 share

South America: weighted engine displacement

100%

30%

80%

1,550

25%
20%

60%

1,500

15%
40%

10%

20%

1,450

5%

0%

0%
2012

2013

Gasoline

2014

Diesel

2015

Hybrid

2016

PEV+PHEV

1,400
2012

2017

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

DI

1 Manual

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Unit diff.

3,843,719

4,087,869

4,177,704

4,479,726

4,865,045

5,011,904

1,168,185

30.4%

92.1%

82.3%

301,427

339,758

372,368

415,732

438,781

446,635

145,208

48.2%

7.2%

7.3%

7,017

20,274

49,083

116,637

186,190

308,282

301,265

4293.4%

0.2%

5.1%

15,884

23,573

46,787

112,692

153,461

163,725

147,841

930.8%

0.4%

2.7%

3,511

33,008

64,662

77,493

135,433

157,495

153,984

4385.8%

0.1%

2.6%

4,171,558

4,504,482

4,710,604

5,202,280

5,778,910

6,088,041

1,916,483

45.9%

100.0%

100.0%

2 Automatic
4 Automated Manual
Total consumption

12


% chg 2012 share

2017 share


Analyst Note Plus

Baseline assembly forecast data – European Union

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

13

Alliance group
VW Group
PSA Group
Renault-Nissan
Daimler Group
BMW Group
Ford Group
Fiat Group
GM Group
Hyundai Group
Toyota Group
Excess capacity
Utilisation (%)

2012
4,425,041
1,976,462
1,908,864
1,347,801
1,358,509
1,064,178
872,044
941,952
533,105
364,796
14,792,752
19,950,013
5,157,261
74.1%

2013
4,414,119
1,971,636
1,810,585
1,452,506
1,407,606
1,055,358
751,624
869,306
539,708
436,446
14,708,894
19,515,468
4,806,574
75.4%

2014
4,612,643
2,089,303
1,830,357
1,521,981
1,366,649
1,069,224
795,147
869,257
549,798
474,414
15,178,773
20,023,210
4,844,437
75.8%

2015
4,934,571
2,118,632
1,998,831
1,543,514
1,464,323
1,112,521
1,162,571
934,070
516,781
474,312
16,260,126
20,270,634
4,010,508
80.2%

2016
4,968,437
2,196,052
2,172,446
1,527,397
1,583,237
1,100,364
1,369,197
1,173,376
508,048
448,098
17,046,652
20,571,064
3,524,412
82.9%

2017
4,990,353
2,277,239
2,164,847
1,620,438
1,665,638
1,066,591
1,397,491
1,271,016
537,342
443,467
17,434,422
20,448,139
3,013,717
85.3%

Platform
MQB
PQ35/46 (A5)
PF1
MLB
C1/P1
L7
PF2
X85/B
HD
MFA

2012
117,033
2,116,969
695,211
665,667
559,289
446,566
807,002
544,391
457,033
210,068
6,619,229
41.6%

2013
996,184
1,169,800
831,259
691,200
576,974
572,557
669,678
554,143
476,500
388,466
6,926,761
43.9%

2014
1,615,095
866,045
841,040
750,875
601,467
588,794
498,974
491,441
488,955
487,603
7,230,289
44.4%

2015
2,761,174
342,605
829,629
812,969
570,501
539,577
492,126
461,530
458,099
515,924
7,784,134
44.5%

2016
3,090,747
258,538
792,622
744,699
538,328
545,857
381,069
443,535
436,384
465,708
7,697,487
42.0%

2017
3,234,148
156,338
660,000
877,261
515,080
518,327
293,962
464,781
452,264
454,925
7,627,086
40.7%

Brand
Volkswagen
Mercedes-Benz
Audi
Peugeot
BMW
Ford
Renault
Opel-Vauxhall
Citroen
Fiat

2012
2,207,927
1,248,900
1,132,784
1,099,757
1,043,732
1,064,178
996,573
941,952
876,705
649,723
11,262,231
70.8%

2013
2,141,211
1,361,993
1,177,393
1,117,942
1,072,924
1,055,358
880,307
869,306
853,694
550,208
11,080,336
70.3%

2014
2,219,125
1,428,703
1,192,421
1,163,889
1,051,263
1,069,224
899,193
869,257
925,414
547,064
11,365,553
69.9%

2015
2,371,488
1,394,937
1,263,588
1,156,580
1,111,305
1,112,521
1,008,205
915,102
962,052
699,322
11,995,100
68.6%

2016
2,465,026
1,373,749
1,165,334
1,208,529
1,172,508
1,100,364
1,150,120
1,092,827
987,523
819,576
12,535,556
68.3%

Brand nameplate
Volkswagen Golf
Ford Fiesta
Opel-Vauxhall Corsa
BMW 3 Series
Peugeot 208
Volkswagen Polo
Opel-Vauxhall Astra
Nissan Qashqai
Volkswagen Passat
Ford Focus

2012
475,804
350,332
294,441
339,920
241,672
287,289
299,757
310,837
236,687
289,079
3,125,818
19.6%

2013
495,763
338,969
278,923
360,568
294,887
262,756
223,797
288,364
227,254
259,671
3,030,952
19.2%

2014
598,546
308,310
269,955
289,174
293,541
257,263
205,529
239,825
212,678
240,757
2,915,578
17.9%

2015
589,599
336,401
247,174
249,354
288,910
252,525
235,963
247,669
274,282
230,918
2,952,795
16.9%

2016
582,680
389,522
304,500
229,653
290,525
284,291
320,568
241,147
294,393
216,465
3,153,744
17.2%


Unit diff.
% chg
CAGR CTG % Rank
565,312
12.8%
2.4%
19.9%
1
300,777
15.2%
2.9%
10.6%
5
255,983
13.4%
2.5%
9.0%
7
272,637
20.2%
3.8%
9.6%
6
307,129
22.6%
4.2%
10.8%
4
2,413
0.2%
0.0%
0.1%
17
525,447
60.3%
9.9%
18.5%
2
329,064
34.9%
6.2%
11.6%
3
4,237
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
15
78,671
21.6%
4.0%
2.8%
9
2,641,670
17.9%
3.3%
93.0%
498,126
2.5%
0.5%
77.7%
-2,143,544
-41.6% -10.2% 100.0%

Unit diff.
% chg
3,117,115 2663.4%
-1,960,631
-92.6%
-35,211
-5.1%
211,594
31.8%
-44,209
-7.9%
71,761
16.1%
-513,040
-63.6%
-79,610
-14.6%
-4,769
-1.0%
244,857 116.6%
1,007,857
15.2%
35.5%

CAGR
94.2%
-40.6%
-1.0%
5.7%
-1.6%
3.0%
-18.3%
-3.1%
-0.2%
16.7%
2.9%

CTG % Rank
109.7%
1
-69.0% 144
-1.2% 112
7.4%
13
-1.6% 114
2.5%
27
-18.1% 142
-2.8% 122
-0.2%
90
8.6%
12
35.5%

2017
2,459,732
1,476,192
1,177,880
1,201,616
1,240,010
1,066,591
1,118,515
1,193,104
1,075,623
817,235
12,826,498
68.4%

Unit diff.
251,805
227,292
45,096
101,859
196,278
2,413
121,942
251,152
198,918
167,512
1,564,267
55.1%

% chg
11.4%
18.2%
4.0%
9.3%
18.8%
0.2%
12.2%
26.7%
22.7%
25.8%
13.9%

CAGR
2.2%
3.4%
0.8%
1.8%
3.5%
0.0%
2.3%
4.8%
4.2%
4.7%
2.6%

CTG % Rank
8.9%
1
8.0%
3
1.6%
21
3.6%
13
6.9%
6
0.1%
33
4.3%
8
8.8%
2
7.0%
4
5.9%
7
55.1%

2017
573,301
387,980
330,745
254,170
277,085
291,763
336,555
236,910
291,869
209,523
3,189,901
17.0%

Unit diff.
97,497
37,648
36,304
-85,750
35,413
4,474
36,798
-73,927
55,182
-79,556
64,083
2.3%

% chg
20.5%
10.7%
12.3%
-25.2%
14.7%
1.6%
12.3%
-23.8%
23.3%
-27.5%
2.1%

CAGR
3.8%
2.1%
2.4%
-5.6%
2.8%
0.3%
2.3%
-5.3%
4.3%
-6.2%
0.4%

CTG % Rank
3.4%
7
1.3%
52
1.3%
56
-3.0% 361
1.2%
59
0.2% 148
1.3%
54
-2.6% 355
1.9%
30
-2.8% 358
2.3%


Analyst Note Plus

Baseline assembly forecast data – Eastern Europe

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

14

Alliance group
Renault-Nissan
GM Group
Hyundai Group
Ford Group
Fiat Group
VW Group
Toyota Group
PSA Group
GAZ Group
Daewoo Group
Excess capacity
Utilisation (%)

2012
1,104,458
541,182
437,840
385,063
216,270
211,468
112,547
100,824
58,414
39,264
3,207,330
4,938,384
1,731,054
64.9%

2013
1,134,338
509,931
489,657
389,458
278,000
221,903
143,505
116,479
54,406
24,766
3,362,443
5,159,947
1,797,504
65.2%

2014
1,162,982
501,773
546,713
422,438
251,005
268,061
189,867
131,388
58,500
46,395
3,579,122
5,502,609
1,923,487
65.0%

2015
1,258,147
510,946
567,797
531,977
257,606
277,178
186,980
151,817
61,174
51,792
3,855,414
5,693,789
1,838,375
67.7%

2016
1,428,836
537,799
557,479
545,343
327,684
288,456
240,585
99,223
61,227
53,133
4,139,765
6,313,002
2,173,237
65.6%

2017
1,553,733
566,087
558,843
567,724
396,808
307,140
248,140
104,371
63,216
56,385
4,422,447
6,499,489
2,077,042
68.0%

Platform
B0 (Renault)
HGSC
X85/B
2190
V184/5
GLOBAL GAMMA
FIAT/GM 199/4400
X84/C
B-EVO
2121

2012
177,124
224,598
158,312
145,307
168,232
105,714
243,265
117,952
29,666
128,402
1,498,572
43.1%

2013
338,643
225,032
245,247
229,072
205,361
170,466
215,699
100,464
112,298
111,710
1,953,992
53.0%

2014
335,455
296,659
268,202
280,186
250,261
212,403
188,825
99,544
122,611
97,153
2,151,299
54.2%

2015
379,858
294,237
275,015
290,603
267,736
228,445
191,660
114,592
135,739
96,582
2,274,467
52.9%

2016
466,543
281,031
287,997
276,384
279,412
230,015
127,164
190,684
180,122
97,295
2,416,647
52.5%

2017
523,793
281,718
293,312
257,772
292,949
240,603
129,276
266,024
223,803
117,528
2,626,778
53.6%

Brand
Lada
Renault
Ford
Chevrolet
Hyundai
Fiat
Kia
Toyota
Volkswagen
Skoda

2012
600,713
458,589
385,063
337,417
236,563
215,717
201,277
112,547
113,297
98,171
2,759,354
79.4%

2013
495,850
575,842
389,458
323,655
263,699
277,444
225,958
143,505
128,283
86,053
2,909,747
79.0%

2014
457,973
569,276
422,438
351,844
312,342
250,439
234,371
189,867
136,452
120,438
3,045,440
76.7%

2015
521,121
559,652
531,977
358,294
336,304
239,101
231,493
186,980
140,088
119,507
3,224,517
75.0%

2016
642,358
605,991
545,343
382,543
340,218
295,696
217,261
226,466
143,421
127,341
3,526,638
76.7%

2017
735,319
623,976
567,724
406,683
345,234
331,928
213,609
233,236
150,980
137,205
3,745,894
76.4%

Brand nameplate
Renault Clio
Ford Transit
Lada Granta
Hyundai Solaris
Lada Kalina
Fiat 500L
Kia Rio
Hyundai Getz/i20
Chevrolet Spark
Renault Symbol / Thalia

2012
158,312
150,974
149,548
124,325
119,522
29,666
100,273
82,713
88,466
42,053
1,045,852
30.1%

2013
230,465
163,178
185,047
125,856
72,058
112,298
97,616
86,911
69,391
74,918
1,217,738
33.1%

2014
232,812
172,976
173,536
115,771
99,169
122,611
92,124
82,622
77,308
82,791
1,251,720
31.5%

2015
221,811
180,924
177,412
110,423
109,271
111,723
89,732
87,417
74,215
82,363
1,245,291
29.0%

2016
227,063
189,911
170,156
101,476
102,716
95,255
82,748
89,366
80,546
91,251
1,230,488
26.7%

2017
226,556
201,355
155,600
98,890
98,519
89,101
80,382
89,445
95,422
100,510
1,235,780
25.2%


Growth analytics
Unit diff.
% chg
449,275
40.7%
24,905
4.6%
121,003
27.6%
182,661
47.4%
180,538
83.5%
95,672
45.2%
135,593 120.5%
3,547
3.5%
4,802
8.2%
17,121
43.6%
1,215,117
37.9%
1,561,105
31.6%
345,988
20.0%

(2012-2017)
CAGR CTG % Rank
7.1%
31.5%
1
0.9%
1.7%
10
5.0%
8.5%
5
8.1%
12.8%
2
12.9%
12.7%
3
7.8%
6.7%
6
17.1%
9.5%
4
0.7%
0.2%
19
1.6%
0.3%
18
7.5%
1.2%
13
6.6%
85.3%
5.7%
82.7%
3.7% 100.0%

Unit diff.
346,669
57,120
135,000
112,465
124,717
134,889
-113,989
148,072
194,137
-10,874
1,128,206
79.2%

CAGR
24.2%
4.6%
13.1%
12.1%
11.7%
17.9%
-11.9%
17.7%
49.8%
-1.8%
11.9%

CTG % Rank
24.3%
1
4.0%
11
9.5%
6
7.9%
9
8.8%
8
9.5%
7
-8.0% 117
10.4%
5
13.6%
3
-0.8% 101
79.2%

Unit diff. % chg
134,606 22.4%
165,387 36.1%
182,661 47.4%
69,266 20.5%
108,671 45.9%
116,211 53.9%
12,332
6.1%
120,689 107.2%
37,683 33.3%
39,034 39.8%
986,540 35.8%
69.3%

CAGR
4.1%
6.4%
8.1%
3.8%
7.9%
9.0%
1.2%
15.7%
5.9%
6.9%
6.3%

CTG % Rank
9.5%
3
11.6%
2
12.8%
1
4.9%
8
7.6%
6
8.2%
5
0.9%
25
8.5%
4
2.6%
13
2.7%
12
69.3%

Unit diff.
68,244
50,381
6,052
-25,435
-21,003
59,435
-19,891
6,732
6,956
58,457
189,928
13.3%

CAGR
7.4%
5.9%
0.8%
-4.5%
-3.8%
24.6%
-4.3%
1.6%
1.5%
19.0%
3.4%

CTG % Rank
4.8%
7
3.5%
15
0.4%
73
-1.8% 221
-1.5% 219
4.2%
9
-1.4% 218
0.5%
68
0.5%
67
4.1%
10
13.3%

% chg
195.7%
25.4%
85.3%
77.4%
74.1%
127.6%
-46.9%
125.5%
654.4%
-8.5%
75.3%

% chg
43.1%
33.4%
4.0%
-20.5%
-17.6%
200.3%
-19.8%
8.1%
7.9%
139.0%
18.2%


Analyst Note Plus

Baseline forecast data – Europe
European Union: fuel type and delivery by % share
2012 - 2017

European Union: weighted engine displacement

100%

100%

2,000

80%

80%

1,900

60%

60%

1,800

40%

40%

1,700

20%

20%

1,600

0%

1,500
2012

0%
2012

2013

Gasoline

2014

Diesel

2015

Hybrid

2016

2017

PEV+PHEV

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

DI


2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Unit diff.

11,243,812

10,861,151

10,949,986

11,558,954

11,961,774

12,061,484

817,672

7.3%

70.6%

64.3%

2 Automatic

2,622,359

2,645,764

2,648,834

2,736,647

2,872,596

3,104,661

482,302

18.4%

16.5%

16.6%


1,210,439

1,405,882

1,584,613

2,065,087

2,375,604

2,472,600

1,262,161

104.3%

7.6%

13.2%

544,792

495,096

521,788

518,242

453,713

410,632

-134,160

-24.6%

3.4%

2.2%

17,139

54,745

291,665

366,826

434,095

478,084

460,945

2689.5%

0.1%

2.5%

276,612

307,970

270,506

248,976

244,594

228,831

-47,781

-17.3%

1.7%

1.2%

15,915,153

15,770,608

16,267,392

17,494,732

18,342,376

18,756,292

2,841,139

17.9%

100.0%

100.0%

1 Manual

4 Automated Manual
5 Electric
Total consumption

Eastern Europe: fuel type and delivery by % share
2012 - 2017

% chg 2012 share

2017 share

Eastern Europe: weighted engine displacement

100%

50%

1,700

80%

45%

1,650

60%

40%

40%

35%

20%

30%

1,600

0%

25%
2012

2013

Gasoline

2014

Diesel

2015

Hybrid

2016

PEV+PHEV

2017

1,550
1,500
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

DI


2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Unit diff.

2,986,502

3,019,640

3,194,089

3,451,649

3,674,736

3,941,873

955,371

32.0%

85.9%

80.4%

351,688

488,544

549,825

531,671

538,254

555,191

203,503

57.9%

10.1%

11.3%


51,906

76,126

114,989

200,852

252,342

263,863

211,957

408.3%

1.5%

5.4%

4 Automated Manual

37,604

37,403

45,103

47,923

56,729

57,304

19,700

52.4%

1.1%

1.2%


29,626

35,657

43,369

45,016

52,714

52,601

22,975

77.6%

0.9%

1.1%

6 Electric

19,778

26,566

21,204

21,523

25,933

30,430

10,652

53.9%

0.6%

0.6%

3,477,104

3,683,936

3,968,579

4,298,634

4,600,708

4,901,262

1,424,158

41.0%

100.0%

100.0%

1 Manual
2 Automatic

Total consumption

15


% chg 2012 share

2017 share


Analyst Note Plus

Baseline assembly forecast data – Developed Asia Pacific
Growth analytics
Unit diff.
% chg
-824,725
-16.8%
59,324
1.8%
-106,334
-7.5%
-26,635
-2.6%
130,434
14.6%
12,271
1.4%
-155,821
-17.8%
12,639
2.8%
21,963
18.4%
-12,712
-27.8%
-889,596
-6.4%
-1,574,186
-9.7%
-684,590
-29.1%

(2012-2017)
CAGR CTG % Rank
-3.6% -90.4%
13
0.4%
6.5%
2
-1.6% -11.7%
11
-0.5%
-2.9%
9
2.8%
14.3%
1
0.3%
1.3%
5
-3.9% -17.1%
12
0.6%
1.4%
4
3.4%
2.4%
3
-6.3%
-1.4%
8
-1.3% -97.5%
-2.0% -93.7%
-6.6% 100.0%

2017
1,273,262
494,863

Unit diff.
109,028
-1,001,744

% chg
9.4%
-66.9%

CAGR CTG % Rank
1.8%
11.9%
10
-19.9% -109.8% 108

793,534
928,100
689,343
498,428
446,384
490,570
419,620
493,627
6,708,230
51.4%

774,374
948,403
702,048
490,429
106,987
471,939
422,384
473,533
6,158,222
47.2%

-60,437
703,848
140,775
-62,383
-722,812
-145,016
-162,648
81,929
-1,119,460
122.7%

-7.2%
287.8%
25.1%
-11.3%
-87.1%
-23.5%
-27.8%
20.9%
-15.4%

-1.5%
31.1%
4.6%
-2.4%
-33.6%
-5.2%
-6.3%
3.9%
-3.3%

2015
2,447,201
1,725,753
1,582,252
1,052,418
1,018,145
926,121
726,638
540,856
609,153
586,303
11,214,840
85.0%

2016
2,475,131
1,768,950
1,572,219
983,088
983,485
919,642
727,954
549,931
575,238
506,355
11,061,993
84.7%

2017
2,438,408
1,786,606
1,592,894
994,903
1,021,149
912,055
717,661
530,819
606,830
474,996
11,076,321
84.8%

Unit diff.
-742,029
-48,069
107,393
-2,967
130,434
-246,493
-155,821
-166,131
59,559
-88,429
-1,152,553
126.3%

% chg
-23.3%
-2.6%
7.2%
-0.3%
14.6%
-21.3%
-17.8%
-23.8%
10.9%
-15.7%
-9.4%

CAGR CTG % Rank
-5.2% -81.3%
28
-0.5%
-5.3%
22
1.4%
11.8%
3
-0.1%
-0.3%
16
2.8%
14.3%
2
-4.7% -27.0%
27
-3.9% -17.1%
25
-5.3% -18.2%
26
2.1%
6.5%
5
-3.4%
-9.7%
23
-2.0% -126.3%

2015
524,346
306,004
250,801
227,170
207,007
218,562
224,745
204,742
201,121
201,584
2,566,082
19.4%

2016
518,237
277,463
246,180
216,704
239,856
223,930
196,305
192,550
199,679
212,232
2,523,136
19.3%

2017
522,513
272,397
280,073
244,223
232,702
220,913
197,178
219,908
193,394
225,643
2,608,944
20.0%

Unit diff.
41,043
-32,710
-54,177
39,297
-15,365
-28,040
-16,433
-1,937
-35,964
5,702
-98,584
10.8%

% chg
8.5%
-10.7%
-16.2%
19.2%
-6.2%
-11.3%
-7.7%
-0.9%
-15.7%
2.6%
-3.6%

CAGR
1.6%
-2.2%
-3.5%
3.6%
-1.3%
-2.4%
-1.6%
-0.2%
-3.4%
0.5%
-0.7%

2012
4,916,519
3,320,176
1,411,760
1,029,855
890,715
880,962
873,482
451,889
119,142
45,751
13,940,251
16,295,678
2,355,427
85.5%

2013
4,631,813
3,337,863
1,161,124
955,046
989,525
903,113
780,157
386,998
134,831
32,216
13,312,686
15,099,251
1,786,565
88.2%

2014
4,318,317
3,335,442
1,280,458
1,060,095
1,022,019
910,477
746,628
442,963
130,012
36,637
13,283,048
14,823,998
1,540,950
89.6%

2015
4,146,151
3,308,005
1,365,067
1,061,185
1,018,145
871,749
726,638
501,111
134,938
34,591
13,167,580
14,872,180
1,704,600
88.5%

2016
4,144,758
3,341,169
1,335,713
991,524
983,485
851,699
727,954
482,368
138,530
32,808
13,030,008
14,800,757
1,770,749
88.0%

2017
4,091,794
3,379,500
1,305,426
1,003,220
1,021,149
893,233
717,661
464,528
141,105
33,039
13,050,655
14,721,492
1,670,837
88.7%

Platform
1 HD
2 MC (Toyota Motor
Corporation)
3 NF
4 SKYACTIV
5 HGSC
6 SI
7 NBC
8 L4 (Daihatsu Motor Company)
9 YP/YN
10 GLOBAL GAMMA

2012
1,164,234
1,496,607

2013
1,207,567
1,471,313

2014
1,262,622
1,311,279

2015
1,226,276
881,306

2016
1,231,001
717,623

834,811
244,555
561,273
552,812
829,799
616,955
585,032
391,604
7,277,682
52.1%

834,297
577,159
577,308
591,494
699,054
546,279
551,389
463,653
7,519,513
56.4%

748,854
856,488
694,793
591,104
603,153
528,352
493,009
445,253
7,534,907
56.6%

797,042
881,817
674,006
585,594
585,738
480,469
462,577
452,742
7,027,567
53.2%

Brand
Toyota
Hyundai
Kia
Honda
Mazda
Nissan
Suzuki
Daihatsu
Chevrolet
Subaru

2012
3,180,437
1,834,675
1,485,501
997,870
890,715
1,158,548
873,482
696,950
547,271
563,425
12,228,874
87.5%

2013
2,877,642
1,802,346
1,535,517
929,901
989,525
891,462
780,157
620,754
542,595
588,897
11,558,796
86.7%

2014
2,572,483
1,751,471
1,583,971
1,051,351
1,022,019
937,484
746,628
588,342
592,172
587,268
11,433,189
85.9%

Brand nameplate
Toyota Prius
Mazda Axela
Toyota Prius C/Aqua
Mazda CX-5
Hyundai Accent
Hyundai Elantra/i30
Kia Forte
Kia Rio
Toyota Land Cruiser
Hyundai Tucson/iX35

2012
481,470
305,107
334,250
204,926
248,067
248,953
213,611
221,845
229,358
219,941
2,707,528
19.4%

2013
550,956
274,550
304,416
281,242
237,039
240,661
209,219
226,084
229,203
200,330
2,753,700
20.7%

2014
516,184
324,041
258,395
235,925
237,487
228,937
245,165
197,012
205,623
187,479
2,636,248
19.8%

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

16

Alliance group
Toyota Group
Hyundai Group
Renault-Nissan
Honda Group
Mazda
GM Group
Suzuki Group
Mitsubishi Group
Mahindra
PSA Group
Excess capacity
Utilisation (%)


-6.6%
77.1%
15.4%
-6.8%
-79.2%
-15.9%
-17.8%
9.0%
-122.7%

91
2
7
92
107
101
103
13

CTG % Rank
4.5%
16
-3.6% 318
-5.9% 334
4.3%
18
-1.7% 280
-3.1% 306
-1.8% 284
-0.2% 196
-3.9% 321
0.6%
97
-10.8%


Analyst Note Plus

Baseline assembly forecast data – Developing Asia Pacific

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

17

Alliance group
GM Group
VW Group
Toyota Group
Hyundai Group
Renault-Nissan
Honda Group
Suzuki Group
Ford Group
Chang'an Group
Geely Group
Excess capacity
Utilisation (%)

Growth analytics
Unit diff.
% chg
1,727,930
58.6%
1,569,227
57.4%
1,005,706
34.5%
862,838
41.6%
1,239,584
83.6%
1,156,890 109.2%
364,083
25.4%
1,285,198 171.1%
238,813
23.1%
444,894
87.7%
9,895,163
58.4%
10,506,578
50.5%
611,415
15.9%

(2012-2017)
CAGR CTG % Rank
9.7%
12.4%
1
9.5%
11.2%
2
6.1%
7.2%
6
7.2%
6.2%
7
12.9%
8.9%
4
15.9%
8.3%
5
4.6%
2.6%
12
22.1%
9.2%
3
4.2%
1.7%
14
13.4%
3.2%
10
9.6%
70.9%
8.5%
67.6%
3.0% 100.0%

2012
2,951,057
2,734,317
2,916,433
2,075,413
1,482,861
1,059,895
1,434,328
751,172
1,035,144
507,317
16,947,937
20,792,273
3,844,336
81.5%

2013
3,212,770
3,161,801
3,109,152
2,184,869
1,701,556
1,372,114
1,386,887
1,047,681
1,064,493
569,450
18,810,773
23,220,907
4,410,134
81.0%

2014
3,420,757
3,331,516
3,418,264
2,386,820
2,063,950
1,771,440
1,430,699
1,144,019
1,163,735
715,368
20,846,568
25,568,628
4,722,060
81.5%

2015
3,852,279
3,451,666
3,652,522
2,493,351
2,377,642
2,048,386
1,526,155
1,495,170
1,237,841
849,288
22,984,300
29,308,039
6,323,739
78.4%

2016
4,461,719
3,992,241
3,777,727
2,714,805
2,522,462
2,139,545
1,562,019
1,866,287
1,284,361
888,595
25,209,761
31,128,890
5,919,129
81.0%

2017
4,678,987
4,303,544
3,922,139
2,938,251
2,722,445
2,216,785
1,798,411
2,036,370
1,273,957
952,211
26,843,100
31,298,851
4,455,751
85.8%

Platform
MINICAB
CARRY
PQ34 (A4)
PQ35/46 (A5)
IMV
HD
C1/P1
MQB
GLOBAL DELTA
NBC

2012
1,400,893
1,384,065
785,158
1,143,374
917,202
640,886
476,402
0
499,169
525,972
7,773,121
31.7%

2013
1,438,834
1,224,514
942,763
1,285,696
910,107
861,368
745,755
37,425
530,882
562,621
8,539,965
31.8%

2014
1,484,876
1,321,290
961,497
1,113,161
926,404
859,264
682,022
362,291
589,991
642,501
8,943,297
29.8%

2015
1,502,337
1,311,465
1,002,681
841,500
933,705
915,882
865,048
839,795
681,253
668,193
9,561,859
28.8%

2016
1,494,700
1,271,375
1,008,649
589,719
936,507
1,023,119
796,712
1,387,138
793,086
696,487
9,997,492
27.6%

2017
1,568,384
1,224,849
1,031,696
605,710
953,861
1,108,332
899,083
1,517,682
908,285
757,457
10,575,339
27.5%

Unit diff.
167,491
-159,216
246,538
-537,664
36,659
467,446
422,681
1,517,682
409,116
231,485
2,802,218
20.1%

% chg
12.0%
-11.5%
31.4%
-47.0%
4.0%
72.9%
88.7%
0.0%
82.0%
44.0%
36.1%

CAGR
2.3%
-2.4%
5.6%
-11.9%
0.8%
11.6%
13.5%
0.0%
12.7%
7.6%
6.4%

CTG % Rank
1.2%
32
-1.1% 233
1.8%
19
-3.9% 236
0.3%
82
3.3%
6
3.0%
8
10.9%
1
2.9%
9
1.7%
24
20.1%

Brand
Toyota
Volkswagen
Hyundai
Nissan
Honda
Wuling
Ford
Chevrolet
Chang'an
Buick

2012
2,562,472
2,130,483
1,551,317
1,403,325
1,021,962
1,383,305
751,172
883,920
825,494
677,286
13,190,736
53.8%

2013
2,722,341
2,442,362
1,637,016
1,518,141
1,325,576
1,403,522
1,047,681
982,246
898,176
809,806
14,786,867
55.0%

2014
2,972,492
2,488,422
1,845,546
1,678,554
1,721,598
1,450,579
1,144,019
1,120,684
997,637
828,520
16,248,051
54.2%

2015
3,127,795
2,540,502
1,860,603
1,764,657
1,927,479
1,462,938
1,462,529
1,367,166
1,047,494
918,846
17,480,009
52.7%

2016
3,231,536
2,760,772
1,947,097
1,769,781
1,947,428
1,449,767
1,783,740
1,659,899
1,084,005
1,193,476
18,827,501
51.9%

2017
3,368,571
2,891,738
2,127,526
1,859,168
2,017,179
1,520,944
1,943,870
1,761,558
1,052,887
1,231,582
19,775,023
51.4%

Unit diff.
806,099
761,255
576,209
455,843
995,217
137,639
1,192,698
877,638
227,393
554,296
6,584,287
47.2%

% chg
31.5%
35.7%
37.1%
32.5%
97.4%
10.0%
158.8%
99.3%
27.5%
81.8%
49.9%

CAGR
5.6%
6.3%
6.5%
5.8%
14.6%
1.9%
20.9%
14.8%
5.0%
12.7%
8.4%

CTG % Rank
5.8%
4
5.5%
5
4.1%
6
3.3%
8
7.1%
2
1.0%
28
8.5%
1
6.3%
3
1.6%
19
4.0%
7
47.2%

Brand nameplate
Toyota Corolla
Toyota Hilux Vigo
Wuling Sunshine
Chang'an SC63/10 Series
Dongfeng Xiaokang
Hyundai Elantra/i30
Volkswagen Lavida
Wuling Hong Guang
Wuling Rong Guang
Ford Focus

2012
543,516
539,392
523,274
500,466
447,028
374,583
250,304
339,509
378,268
325,736
4,222,076
17.2%

2013
548,634
531,887
489,196
445,529
455,277
409,469
415,942
394,966
346,259
441,089
4,478,248
16.7%

2014
563,152
535,442
510,193
514,137
446,067
415,536
425,264
402,719
371,260
338,381
4,522,151
15.1%

2015
561,366
537,248
531,231
498,217
413,505
413,183
446,253
390,845
377,676
273,467
4,442,991
13.4%

2016
565,146
535,914
540,363
512,854
352,411
398,641
435,658
390,188
363,288
292,624
4,387,087
12.1%

2017
586,778
548,191
569,756
450,694
357,363
446,840
434,601
412,621
378,040
367,529
4,552,413
11.8%

Unit diff.
43,262
8,799
46,482
-49,772
-89,665
72,257
184,297
73,112
-228
41,793
330,337
2.4%

% chg
8.0%
1.6%
8.9%
-9.9%
-20.1%
19.3%
73.6%
21.5%
-0.1%
12.8%
7.8%

CAGR
1.5%
0.3%
1.7%
-2.1%
-4.4%
3.6%
11.7%
4.0%
0.0%
2.4%
1.5%

CTG % Rank
0.3% 109
0.1% 372
0.3%
98
-0.4% 681
-0.6% 686
0.5%
50
1.3%
4
0.5%
48
0.0% 586
0.3% 115
2.4%



Analyst Note Plus

Baseline forecast data – Asia Pacific
Developed AP: fuel type and delivery by % share
2012 - 2017

Developed AP: weighted engine displacement

100%

50%

1,900

80%

40%

1,800

60%

30%

40%

20%

20%

10%

1,600

0%

1,500
2012

1,700

0%
2012

2013

Gasoline

Diesel

2014

2015

Hybrid

2016

2017

PEV+PHEV

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

DI


2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Unit diff.

% chg 2012 share


5,096,728

5,084,377

5,090,955

4,965,870

4,925,709

4,943,473

-153,255

-3.0%

36.5%

37.9%

2 Automatic

5,205,446

4,796,831

4,711,264

4,597,845

4,541,933

4,547,537

-657,909

-12.6%

37.3%

34.8%

3 Manual

3,518,321

3,284,051

3,094,142

3,042,457

2,870,971

2,802,207

-716,114

-20.4%

25.2%

21.5%


93,559

95,627

272,089

351,355

393,994

400,698

307,139

328.3%

0.7%

3.1%

5 Electric

48,782

57,796

106,184

204,988

279,077

322,271

273,489

560.6%

0.3%

2.5%

6 Automatic Hybrid

7,583

13,949

27,321

35,946

36,549

39,749

32,166

424.2%

0.1%

0.3%

7 Automated Manual

2,721

2,258

1,865

1,320

4,950

4,753

2,032

74.7%

0.0%

0.0%

Total consumption

13,973,140

13,334,889

13,303,820

13,199,781

13,053,183

13,060,688

-912,452

-6.5%

100.0%

100.0%

Developing AP: fuel type and delivery by % share
2012 - 2017

100%

Developing AP: weighted engine displacement

40%

80%

2017 share

1,800

30%
1,700

60%
20%
40%
10%

20%
0%

0%
2012

2013

Gasoline

2014

Diesel

2015

Hybrid

2016

PEV+PHEV

2017

1,600

1,500
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

DI


2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Unit diff.

14,637,574

15,294,638

16,738,742

17,897,994

19,220,596

20,365,912

5,728,338

39.1%

59.7%

52.9%

2 Automatic

7,693,012

8,291,453

8,981,659

9,761,604

10,428,830

10,844,193

3,151,181

41.0%

31.4%

28.2%


1,305,132

1,732,249

2,390,758

2,836,335

3,000,243

3,334,586

2,029,454

155.5%

5.3%

8.7%


704,433

1,318,756

1,627,307

2,325,925

3,213,559

3,511,782

2,807,349

398.5%

2.9%

9.1%

5 Automated Manual

144,123

184,799

188,516

222,730

244,875

276,991

132,868

92.2%

0.6%

0.7%

33,598

47,967

58,865

112,531

138,118

142,009

108,411

322.7%

0.1%

0.4%

24,517,872

26,869,862

29,985,847

33,157,119

36,246,221

38,475,473 13,957,601

56.9%

100.0%

100.0%

1 Manual

6 Electric
Total consumption

18


% chg 2012 share

2017 share


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