2. Are key forest countries going to meet their NDCs?
Copenhagen’s NAMA
Paris’ NDC
Indicative NDC
https://themasites.pbl.nl/o/climate-ndc-policies-tool/#countries
4. Project structure
Work Package 1:
Achieving
transparency &
accountability
Work Package 2:
Tracking & assessing
actions
Work Package 3:
Bringing out the
politics
Global
Forests &
Climate
Arena
National
Policies &
Actions
Subnat’l
Policies &
Actions
Work Package 4:
Linking science,
policy & politics
• diagnostic
framework
• policy
scenarios
• science-policy
platforms
5. General process
• Refining LoA
• Phased approach
- Year 1: Brazil
- Year 2: Peru
- Year 3: DRC and Indonesia
• Submission of a publication describing model specificities for country
partners and country coordinators: Rochedo et al. (2018)
6. Current activities
• Compilation of list of demands for spatial data
- Focus on LULUCF
- AFOLU information important for assessing NDC attainment
• Presentation in the GCF meeting in Belém (October, 20th)
- Emission scenario platform within CIFOR project
7. GHG Emissions Scenarios
• Business as usual: current deforestation and emissions scenario
• NDC scenario: minimum deforestation reduction required to meet
NDC
• REDD+ scenario: ambitious deforestation reduction
8. Scenario components
• Overall narrative for each scenario
• Qualitative description of deforestation drivers
• Qualitative description of deforestation control policies
• Quantitative deforestation trajectory (total Km2 per year, with or without subdivision)
• Data set per country:
• Land use map (minimum 2-years, forest / non-forest use)
• Above ground/below ground carbon map
• BAU GHG for other non-LULUCF sectors (energy, agriculture)
• Spatially explicit drivers and policies (eg. built and planned roads, conservation areas)
• Fall back datasets: Hansen (land use), Saatchi (carbon), ClimateTracker (BAU GHG for
energy and agriculture), OpenStreet Map, WDPA, PBL.NL
9. Scenarios outputs
• Spatially explicit deforestation projections
• Improve deforestation policies by indicating priority areas
• Allow science-based regional target and benefit-sharing proposals (i.e.
avoid barrel/competition pushing between jurisdictions)
• GHG Emissions trajectory
• Assess if country is on track to meet its NDC
• Estimate potential for generating carbon credits / result-based payments
via LEAF ART-TREES, ITMOs (Art. 6.2) and REDD+ (Art. 5)
11. Scenario components for Brazil
• Data set per country:
• Land use map: PRODES and National Inventory
• Above ground/below ground carbon map: Brazil’s National Inventory
• BAU GHG for other non-LULUCF sectors: Official projections from Min Science &
Technology
• Overall narrative for each scenario
• Deforestation drivers
• Deforestation control policies
• Deforestation trajectory (total Km2 per year, with or without subdivision)
• BAU: historical trajectory
• REDD+: original PNMC target (4 thousands km2, down from current 11 thousands km2)
17. Key challenges
• Identity appropriate spatially explicit data sources and Tier 2-3
emission factors
• Develop scenario narratives grounded on country’s expectations
• Align results with National GHG Inventories, FREL and ART-TREES
• Integration with other WPs: CIT&UFMG as final integrator
• Avoid missing the forest for the trees