Who will win the race between Battery Electric Vehicles, Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles?

1. Electric Car Wars
Who will win the race between BEVs, PHEVs & FCEVs?

2. 2
1,150
750
400
300
225
150
850
550
250
200 150 100
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2010 2012 2016 2018 2020 2025
Expected decline in battery prices drove vehicle manufacturers to develop
Battery Electric Vehicles with larger batteries
Lithium Ion Battery Pack* Cost Estimates ($/kWh)
Historical Forecast
Max
Min
Source: Frost & Sullivan

3. 3
Vexed by Tesla, Audi and Mercedes plan to launch EVs with 60 kWh+ batteries
and ultra fast charging capability to compete with Tesla on range as well as
charging time
OEM Model Charging Specifications
• Charging Capacity – 350kW
• Battery size – 80kWh
• Range – 200 miles
• Charging time ~10 min
• Launch year – 2019
• Charging Capacity – Initially 150kW
and going up to 350kW
• Battery Size – 95kWh
• Range – 200+ miles
• Charging time ~15-20 min
• Launch year – 2018/19
Maybach 6
e-Tron Quattro

4. 4
More than 25 models for almost every OEM are expected to have a 200+
mile range in the next 5 years. OEMs have a 300 mile range benchmark to
match the performance of the EV to an ICE.
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Existing
Tesla Roadster
(~400 m)
Jaguar
crossover
300+
miles
Tesla Model 3
(215+ m)
Ford Model E
(200m)
Aston Martin
RapidE (200+m)
Nissan Leaf (200+m)
Chevrolet Bolt
(240 m)
Porsche Pajun
EV (250m)
Tesla Model S
(~260+ m)
Tesla Model X
(~250+ m)
Audi R8 gen 2 (280m)
Tesla
Model Y
Hyundai / KIA SUV
(200-300m)
200-
300
miles
Volvo SPA
PSA EMP2
(280m)
Audi Q6
VW eGolf
Mercedes S Class
(~300+ m)
Porsche Mission
E (310 m)
Mercedes B
class (250m)
Mercedes
Larger than
GLS - Coupe
Audi Q8
(370+m)
VW Phaeton
(300+m)
Mercedes
crossover between
C & E Class
Porsche
Boxster
Total EV Market: Announced and Probable Future Launches of Long Range BEVs, Global, 2016-2021
Range
Faraday Future
FF91 (370 m)
Lucid Air (400 m)
Source: Frost & Sullivan

5. 5
With the future launch of those EVs with 200+ miles range, the industry is
wondering whether PHEVs is only a short term solution or whether it is
expected to contribute significantly to the future of the electric mobility
Vehicles & End-
Users Targeted
Risks
BEVs
• Weight < 1.5 tons
• Segment A & B
• Urban
• Commuting
• 2nd vehicle
• Requires the deployment of a fast charging network
• Electricity grid constrains at local level as well as on highway
corridors
• Limits on cobalt and lithium availability if deployed in large scale
• Limited range in highway driving conditions
PHEVs
• Weight > 1.5 tons
• Segment D & Higher
• Suburban & Rural
• Unique vehicles
• Limited incentives compared to BEV as not 100% electric
• Electricity grid constrains at local level
• More complex architecture as embarking 2 powertrains
• Some end-users don’t charge it
• NEDC cycle too optimistic on fuel consumption & CO2 emissions
FCEVs
• Weight > 1.5 tons
• Segment D & Higher
• Suburban & Rural
• Unique vehicles
• Needs renewable electricity to produce clean hydrogen &
increase well to well energy efficiency
• Expensive fuelling infrastructure to be deployed
• Limits on platinum availability if deployed in large scale

6. 6
Metal Independence
Shifting the resource availability issue from oil to metals do not address it – it only moves it
• 1 kWh LCA battery = 800 gr of Lithium Carbonate
Equivalent = 150 gr of Lithium = $12 lithium BoM*
• 80 kWh LCA battery = 64 kg of Lithium Carbonate
Equivalent = 12 kg of Lithium = $960 lithium BoM*
• Tesla Gigafactory producing 500,000 batteries
would require 2015 global lithium production for
batteries (40% of global lithium production)
• LCE prices were multiplied 2 fold in 6 months but
are expected to stay below $15k/ton in the long
term
 No issue in the short/medium term with lithium
• 1 kWh Li-ion battery = 200 gr of Cobalt
• 80 kWh Li-ion battery = 16 kg of Cobalt = $950
• Cobalt was already in supply deficit in 2016
• Cobalt is a by-product of copper & nickel mining
hence limited possibility to increase supply
• Cobalt in rechargeable battery chemicals already
represents about 45% of total cobalt demand
• 65% of mined cobalt comes from RDC & 50% of
the world's refined cobalt from China
 Potential supply constrain & geopolitical risks
for cobalt sourcing
*Bill of Material
Lithium Cobalt
Pricesin$/ton

7. 7
Highway Range
When driving on highways at 130 km/h, driving range is only 50 to 60% of the NEDC range
for a BEV
2010 2015 2020
Battery Capacity 20-30kWh 30-60kWh 60-90kWh
NEDC Range Up to 200 km 200-400 km +400 km
• Even if BEVs are expected to reach 500km
driving range, it is in city driving conditions
• When driving on highways at 130 km/h,
driving range is 50 to 60% of the NEDC
range
• At 130 km/h, the energy consumption more
than double compared to 90 km/h with
aerodynamic forces tripling to account for
80% of friction forces
BEV battery capacity, NEDC & highway range roadmap
Power required to balance mechanic
& aerodynamic friction forces
80%
Power to balance mechanical losses
Power to balance aerodynamic losses
Speed (km/h)
Power(kW)
20%
73%
27%
65%
35%
Source: Gregory Launay
22 kW
9 kW
15 kW
Highway Range Up to 100 km 100-200 km +200 km

8. 8
Charging Infrastructure Availability
Electric Vehicles will require significant investment to upgrade the local distribution grid and be
able to charge everyday as well as to deploy a fast charging network on highways
Local distribution grid
“If two EV customers on the same transformer
plugged in a 6.6 kW charger each during a peak
time, their load could exceed the emergency
rating of roughly 40% of distribution
transformers in the US” Silver Spring Networks
• Since 6,6 kW chargers draw an electricity load
equivalent to a house (7 kW for a typical
residence), utilities will need to invest in
updating distribution networks and potentially
add generation and transmission capacity.
• Smart grid allowing load shifting will be
critical to ensure smooth charging of multiple
electric vehicle in the same neighbourhood
• The impact on the local grid is expected to be
equivalent between a PHEV and a BEV as they
are likely to charge an equivalent “amount” of
energy – what they used to commute
• Charging power is expected to have the strongest
impact on the local grid
Fast charging on highways
• Fast charging station in fuel stations will have to
connect to the medium voltage grid which
could represent significant installation cost
• Most project under development do not plan to
install more than 2 fast chargers (50kW) to be
compared with 10+ gasoline/diesel “chargers”
• With a fast charging 25 times as slow as regular
fuelling (20 min for 100 km vs. 5 min for 600km)
and 5 times as less “fuelling” points, availability
for “refuelling” large BEVs will be 125 times
more limited than for regular car
• As most of the drivers tend to travel long distance
at the same moment (week-end, holidays), a
charging infrastructure 125 less dense won’t
be able to address this peak demand
• Fast charging network is not needed for
PHEVs as they are able to drive on ICE for long
distances and use the existing ultra fast
charging infrastructure

9. 9
Charging Infrastructure Availability
Even with a very dense network of fast chargers, BEVs sales might not follow. In Japan, fast
charging infrastructure already reached saturation levels but EV sales are declining
Number of CHAdeMO chargers installed by Country & in Japan
Source: Nissan
Electric Vehicle Sales in Japan
Source: EV Volumes
• 25,500 electric vehicles were sold in Japan in 2015 out of 5 million passenger car (0.5%)
• Contrary to what the industry believe, BEVs sales might not surge even with large scale
deployment of fast charging infrastructure

10. 10
• With 80% of electricity coming from thermal plants, FCEV well-to-wheel energy efficiency
is currently more than twice as low as ICE vehicles at less than 10%
• Clean hydrogen produced from fatal electricity from intermittent renewables is required to
make FCEV an energy efficient alternative
• Renewable energies are only expected to reach 8% of primary energy mix by 2035 hence
availability of hydrogen from their fatal electricity production will be in the % scale
Energy Efficiency
With 80% of electricity coming from thermal plants, FCEV well-to-wheel energy efficiency is
currently twice as low as ICE vehicles at less than 10%
Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035
Mtoe
Evolution of world primary energy consumption
- Million tons of oil equivalent & % , 1965 to 2035 -

11. 11
Oil Independence
Reducing the 97% oil dependence for transportation is critical as we will face an oil availability
constrain by 2020 following the lack of investment in oil E&P since the oil price collapse in 2014
World all liquids production & forecast
- Million barrels per day, 1900 to 2020 -
Source: Jean Laherrere, ASPO France, June 2016
ProductionMb/d

12. 12
PHEVs do not need an expensive fast charging infrastructure deployment,
can reduce oil consumption by as much as 80% and uses four times as less
supply-constrained cobalt than BEVs
Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis
Affordability
Metal
Independence
Highway
Range
Charging
Infrastructure
Availability
Energy
efficiency*
Oil
Independence
ICE
Most cost
competitive
alternative
5
Platine in
catalytic
converters
4
More than
500 km
5
Infrastructur
e existing
5
18%
Gasoline
22% Diesel
3
100%
oil
1 23
BEV
High cost of
60kWh
battery
3
Lithium and
cobalt for 60
kWh battery
2
Up to 300
km
3
Fast charger
network &
local grid
upgrade
2 20% 3
100%
electric
5 18
PHEV
20kWh
battery
4
Lithium and
cobalt for 20
kWh battery
3
More than
500 km
5
Local grid
upgrade
4 20% 3
80% electric
20% oil
4 23
FCEV
High cost of
fuel cell
stack
2
Platinum in
the fuel cell
stack
2
More than
500 km
5
Network of
hydrogen
station
1 8% 1
100%
electric
5 16
* Well to wheel

13. 13
Plug-in hybrids represent the best trade-off for a sustainable vehicle at a
global scale in the short to medium term - up to 2030
Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis
Plug-In Hybrids Electric VehicleInternal Combustion Engine
Battery Electric Vehicle Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
Metal
Independence
Highway Range
Charging
Infrastructure
Availability
Energy Efficiency
Affordability
Oil Independence
Metal
Independence
Highway Range
Charging
Infrastructure
Availability
Energy Efficiency
Affordability
Oil Independence
Metal
Independence
Highway Range
Charging
Infrastructure
Availability
Energy Efficiency
Affordability
Oil Independence
Metal
Independence
Highway Range
Charging
Infrastructure
Availability
Energy Efficiency
Affordability
Oil Independence

14. 14
What if the electric car of the future was not a car?
Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis

15. 15
What if the electric car of the future was a bicycle-car?
Source: http://www.jmk-innovation.se/?lang=en
Technical
specifications
PodRide
Electric
bicycle-car
Tesla S
Autonomous
electric tank
PodRide vs.
Tesla S
Weight 70 kg 2 100 kg
30 times
lighter
Dimensions
1.8 m x 0.75 m
1.35 m2
5 m x 2 m
10m2
7 times
smaller
Top speed 25 km/h 225 km/h
10 times more
slowly
Power 250 W 235 kW
1000 times less
powerful
Battery capacity 0.7 kWh 70 kWh
100 times
smaller
Electric range 60 km 450 km
7 times
lower
Price 3,000 € 80,000 €
25 times
cheaper

16. 16
Electric cars will need more than hype to become mainstream!
Media attention for all alternative fuel vehicle technologies
- 1980–2013 -
Source: Moving beyond alternative fuel hype to decarbonize transportation, Noel Melton, Jonn Axsen & Daniel Sperling, Nature Energy (2016)

17. 17
Thank you for your attention!
Nicolas Meilhan
Principal Consultant
Energy & Transportation Practices
(+33) 1 42 81 23 24
nicolas .meilhan@frost.com