The RTE Economic, Prospective and Transparency Director, Hervé MIGNON, explained what the Generation Adequacy Report is, from its medium-term supply-demand balance forecasts to the analysis of long-term issues.

1. SFEN : Atoms for the future

2. The “Generation Adequacy Report”
■ A mission entrusted to RTE
■ A forecast analysis of supply-demand balance over a 5 years
time-frame
■ An analysis of long-term issues (2030 horizon)
■ An issue of security of supply in physical terms
■ A contribution to the debate on energy transition
2

3. MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST
ANALYSIS (2014-2017)

4. A structural slowdown
in energy demand growth
4

5. Peak demand has increased 2 to 3 times
faster than annual energy demand
over the past decade
A steady growth of peak
demand (more than 2 GW per
year on average)...
… essentially driven by a sharp
increase of temperature sensitivity
of demand since 2000
5

6. The cold spell of February 2012
has resulted in a peak demand over 100 GW
6

7. A continuous improvement
of energy efficiency boosted by regulations
7

8. A slowdown in the market share
of electric space heating
Investors have anticipated the
new thermal regulation in
residential housing
Thermal regulation should
lead to a lower growth of
temperature-sensitive end-uses
Trend in demand relating to electric heating
(residential and tertiary)
8

9. A depressed economic environment
and lower GDP growth assumptions
Source: Consensus Forecasts
9

10. Trends of demand should be driven
by economic conditions and demand-side
management
10

11. Regional disparities in demand growth
remain important
11

12. A slowdown in the rate of development
of new wind capacity but a stronger
than anticipated growth of photovoltaic capacity
12

13. A decrease in thermal installed capacity
according to the statements
of producers and of public authorities
13

14. Different load management means
are available according to electricity end-uses
14

15. Security of supply will be tighter
starting in 2016
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
(*) Capacity shortfall corresponds to the additional supply that is necessary to meet the adequacy criterion (loss of load expectation < 3 hours)
15

16. PROSPECTIVE LONG-TERM
SCENARIOS

17. Long-term prospective analysis
Scenarios are developed that:
■ are highly differentiated in order to cover the field of uncertainties
Macroeconomics, energy policy, technological progress, etc.
■ are based on available data supplied by the market participants
■ meet the adequacy criterion
Capacity shortfall is specified according to operating hours
■ will feed into network studies
A need to anticipate the adaptation of the transmission network to trends in supply
17

18. Four highly differentiated scenarios
in order to cover the field of uncertainties
Median
High Demand
New mix
Low Growth
18

19. The underlying trend should continue
19

20. Coherent and differentiated visions
of the supply mix through to 2030
Comparison of the different scenarios in the 2012 Generation
Adequacy Report – Supply mix through to 2030
interconnections:
15 GW
21 GW
27 GW
27 GW
21 GW
20

21. Focus on “Median” and “New Mix”
scenarios
Main assumptions
Median
New mix
82 TWh
116 TWh
Nuclear capacity
56 GW
40 GW
Wind power capacity
30 GW
40 GW
Photovoltaic capacity
20 GW
30 GW
Mid-merit & peak load capacity
29 GW
30 GW
21 GW
28 GW
Energy efficiency
(2011-2030 estimate)
(including demand response)
Interconnections
A specific analysis of the impact on the supply-demand balance of
nuclear capacity of 40 GW in 2025 has be carried out (cf. chapter 6.3.5
of the Generation Adequacy Report)
21

22. Generation fleet trends
necessarily require an significant
adaptation of the transmission network
■ Development of interconnections (27 GW in 2030 in “New Mix”
scenario, compared to 14 GW today)
■ Strengthening of the French network, in connection with regional
plans for energy (SRCAE, S3REnR)
■ Development of new network technologies as for instance
the subsea interconnections necessary to connect marine facilities
to the grid
22

23. Important investments are planned between
now and 2020 in ten-year development plan
■ between 800 and 1,000 km of new DC underground and subsea lines
■ strengthening of between 1,000 and 2,000 km of existing 400 kV-AC
transmission lines
■ about 400 km of underground AC lines (400 kV and 225 kV)
■ between 15 and 20 new 400 kV substations
■ 8 GW of new interconnection lines
■ A strong timeline issue: permitting procedures for grid expansion
projects often exceed ten years nowadays. Therefore, they must be
streamlined and shortened to match the time required to bring new
generation infrastructure on line in order to improve the implementation
of energy policy decisions.
23

24. GENERATION FLEET TRENDS
NECESSARILY REQUIRE AN SIGNIFICANT
ADAPTATION OF THE TRANSMISSION
NETWORK
Source : RTE- Schéma décennal

25. Economics, Forecast & Transparency
Department
25