Launch of Global Food Policy Report 2014-2015
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Launch of Global Food Policy Report 2014-2015
- 1. GLOBAL FOOD POLICY REPORT Africa Region Ousmane Badiane Director for Africa
- 2. GDP GROWTH AgGDP GROWTH > 5%< 4% > 5%~6% POVERTY RATE 41%>44% CHILD MALNUTRITION <21%>23% MAJOR PROGRESS AND ACHIEVEMENTS
- 3. Page <#> Ag PE GROWTH -1.34%7.7% Ag PE SHARE 3.1%3.7% CHALLENGES AND OBSTACLES: GLOBAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
- 4. $11B $77B $41B Ag IMPORTS Ag. EXPORTS 2001 2011 $30B CHALLENGES AND OBSTACLES: STRUCTURAL IMBALANCES
- 5. Source: Epidemiological update of February 19, 2015” (Guinea and WHO, 2015); Cited in Fofana, Ismael et al (2015) Ebola in Guinea, February 19, 2015 CHALLENGES AND OBSTACLES: DISEASE AND CONFLICTS
- 6. REGION SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 Boke 0.0 -0.2 -0.7 Conakry -0.3 -1.2 -5.1 Faranah 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 Kankan 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 Kindia -0.1 -0.3 -1.1 Labe 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mamou 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 Nzerekore -0.2 -1.0 -4.2 Guinea -0.1 -0.3 -1.1 AGRICULTURAL LABOR SHOCK: • Scenario 1: Reported cases & deaths x 2; • Scenario 2: Reported cases & deaths x 2 + 1% displaced population; • Scenario 3: Reported cases & deaths x 2 + 5% displaced population Source: Fofana, Ismael et al (2015) POTENTIAL IMPACT OF EBOLA ON AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT (%)
- 7. Page <#> SUSTAINING THE MOMENTUM RENEWED COMMITMENTS AT MALABO Ending Hunger by 2025 – Nutrition Halving Poverty by 2025 Triple Intra-African Trade by 2025 Climate Smart Agriculture – Resilience Mutual Accountability – Sector Governance Women Empowerment Youth employment
- 8. Africa Net export outlook by products by 2030 Cereal s Veg. Oils Dairy Processed Foods Beverages Tobacco Sugar Red Meat White Meat Cash Crops Vegetables and Fruits Fibers
- 9. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2008 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2025 Thousandmetrictons CEREALS ROOTS OTHER FOODS ALL STAPLES OTHER CROPS ECOWAS Intra-trade outlook by 2025 under current trends
- 10. 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 CEREALS ROOTS OTHER FOODS ALL STAPLES OTHER CROPS %ofBaselineQuantity 10% reduction in trade costs Removal of harrassment costs 10% increase in crop yields 180 284 259 1183 1154 1290 1464 3999 2544 101 2560 995 1809 5032 4706 Absolute numbers are in parentheses ECOWAS Changes in trading cost and yields and Intra-trade by 2025
- 11. Good Policies are not a solution for everything Bad Policies are a problem for everything else Policy Reversal would jeopardize ongoing growth recovery across Africa • Risk of return to failed policies of 60s and 70s – No institutional memory – New generation of leaders – Stronger fiscal positions – More open, democratic systems – Populist pressures and tendencies SECTOR GOVERNANCE AND QUALITY OF POLICY PROCESSES
- 13. 0 50 100 150 200 250 Agricultural Price Index (Real), 1970-2013 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Yearly rainfall by region (mm) Southern Eastern Central Western Northern 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Number of African countries with armed conflict, 1975-2013 0 50 100 150 200 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Oil and Mining Price Index (Real), 1970-2013 Crude oil Metals and minerals
- 14. Page <#> 0 10 20 30 40 50 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) East Africa Southern Africa West Africa 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 International Reserves as Percentage of Total GDP (%) East Africa Southern Africa West Africa Sub-Saharan Africa 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Share(%) Net Direct Investment as Share of GDP (%) Southern Africa East Africa West Africa Nominal Rate of Assistance to African Agriculture Source: Anderson and Masers (2007)
- 15. Transition to improved review and dialogue processes Completed country JSR Assessment Reports SECTOR GOVERNANCE AND QUALITY OF POLICY PROCESSES
- 16. 14 Country Needs Assessments completed CNAs SECTOR GOVERNANCE AND QUALITY OF POLICY PROCESSES
Notes de l'éditeur
- Other crops include: Cotton, Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Tea, Tobacco, All vegetables, other fruits, All spices, and Nuts