Over 850 million people worldwide are undernourished and nearly 2 billion suffer from micronutrient deficiencies. Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest rates of undernourishment at over 17% of its population, while South and East Asia also have significant populations suffering from lack of food. Global population is projected to increase from 7 billion in 2010 to over 9 billion by 2050 and 10 billion by 2100, placing additional stress on food production. Agricultural practices must adapt to climate change through strategies like improved irrigation and more resilient crop varieties, while also pursuing mitigation efforts such as restoring degraded lands, to help ensure future global food security.

1. Undernourishment
870 million people are chronically undernourished; almost two billion suffer
from negative health consequences of micronutrient deficiencies. FAO, 2012
Undernourished population by region
North Africa and Near East
East and Southeast Asia
= 100 million people
= undernourished people
POPULATION:
502 million
UNDERNOURISHED:
POPULATION:
31 million—7.10%
2.2 billion
UNDERNOURISHED:
233 million—11.30%
South Asia
Latin America
Sub-Saharan Africa
POPULATION:
POPULATION:
POPULATION:
590 million
873 million
1.7 billion
UNDERNOURISHED:
UNDERNOURISHED:
UNDERNOURISHED:
49 million—8.30%
234 million—26.80%
304 million—17.60%
Data from FAO, 2012

2. Population
The world population, currently 7 billion, is expected to reach 9.3 billion by
2050 and 10.1 billion by 2100. UN-DESA, 2011
Projected change in world population, 2010–2100
2010
7.0
billion
2050
2100
9.3
billion
Asia
Africa
10.1
billion
Europe
Latin America/Caribbean
North America
Oceania
Data from UN-DESA, 2011

3. Dietary change
Diets are expanding and shifting. Sugar, fat, and animal product
consumption are increasing in almost all regions of the world—yet people
in low- and middle-income countries still consume far less meat and dairy
than those in high-income countries. Kastner et al., 2012
Projected change in meat and
dairy consumption, 2005 to 2050
MEAT
DIARY
2005
2050
+58%
+19%
North Africa
and Near East
+62%
+23%
2005
2050
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Latin America
and Caribbean
+38%
+25%
+309%
South Asia
+63%
+61%
East Asia
+68%
OECD and
Eastern Europe
+11%
+10%
0
50
100
150
200
KILOGRAMS PER PERSON PER YEAR
250

4. Obesity
Worldwide, obesity more than doubled between 1980 and 2008. More than
1.4 billion adults—one out of every five—in 2008 were overweight. One out
of every ten was obese. WHO, 2012
Neil Palmer, CIAT

5. Global food demand
To meet global food demand in 2050, agricultural production must be 60
percent higher by weight than in 2005. Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012
F. Fiondella, IRI/CCAFS

6. Food waste
Roughly one-third of food produced for human consumption, about
1.3 billion tonnes per year, gets lost or wasted globally—the equivalent
of 6 to 10 percent of human-generated greenhouse gas emissions.
Gustavsson et al., 2011; Vermeulen et al., 2012 for the calculation on emissions
Neil Palmer, CIAT

7. Global agricultural emissions
Agriculture makes the greatest contribution to total food system emissions.
It contributes 7,300 to 12,700 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide
equivalent (MtCO2e) per year—about 80 to 86 percent of food systems
emissions and 14 to 24 percent of total global emissions. Vermeulen et al., 2012
Breakdown of agricultural emissions
Total global emissions
Power
24%
Transport
14%
Land use
change*
18%
Buildings
8%
Agriculture
14%
Other energy
related
5%
Industry
14%
Waste
3%
*Approximately 75% of emissions
from land use change are
attributed to agriculture.
Food system emissions
PREPRODUCTION
PRODUCTION
Fertilizer
manufacture
3%
Direct emissions
48.5%
Pesticide production
0.6%
Energy use in animal
feed production
0.5%
Indirect emissions
(deforestation)
35%
POSTPRODUCTION
Refrigeration
4%
Storage, packaging, a
nd transport
3%
Direct agricultural
emissions
Retail activities
2%
Agricultural
32%
Primary and
secondary production
1.5%
Enteric
fermentation
31%
Catering and
domestic food
1.3%
Other emissions
19%
Waste disposal
0.6%
Rice cultivation
12%
Manure
management
6%

8. Food system emissions
Food system emissions—from production to
consumption—contribute 9,800 to 16,900 million
metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent
(MtCO2e) per year, or 19 to 29 percent of total
greenhouse gas emissions.
Vermeulen et al., 2012
4,382.5
MtCO2e/year
6,111
MtCO2e/year
Indirect emissions
(deforestation)
35%
560
MtCO2e/year
1,534
MtCO2e/year
Direct emissions
Preproduction
Postproduction
49%
4%
12%
PERCENT AND AMOUNT OF FOOD SYSTEM EMISSIONS
Data from Vermeulen et al. 2012; USEPA, 2011; and Blaser and Robledo, 2007

9. Direct agricultural emissions
Non-CO2 agricultural emissions are about
6,100 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide
equivalent (MtCO2e) per year—about 11 percent of
total global greenhouse gas emissions
and 56 percent of global non-CO2
greenhouse gas emissions.
US-EPA, 2011
1,864
MtCO2e/year
710
MtCO2e/year
1,984
MtCO2e/year
1,164
MtCO2e/year
389
MtCO2e/year
Enteric
fermentation
Rice
cultivation
Agricultural
soils
Other
emissions
Manure
management
31%
12%
32%
19%
6%
PERCENT AND AMOUNT OF DIRECT AGRICULTURAL EMISSIONS
Data from US-EPA, 2011

10. Deforestation emissions
Agriculture is the leading cause of some 75 percent of global deforestation.
If rates of deforestation continue as projected, forests will diminish
dramatically by 2100. Strassbourg et al., 2012; Blaser and Robledo, 2007
Forest cover observed in 2000
Forest cover projected for 2010

11. Livestock emissions
The global livestock sector emits almost 6,000 million metric tonnes of
carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year at 2008 levels and accounts
for about 11 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions from
the sector are expected to increase 70 percent by 2050. PBL, 2009
Neil Palmer, CIAT

12. Biofuels
When compared to fossil fuels, manufactured liquid biofuels do not
necessarily produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions.
Neil Palmer, CIAT

13. Impacts on water
By 2050, climate change will increase extreme drought, especially in the
subtropics and low- and mid-latitudes. Increased water stress will impact
land areas twice the size of those areas that will experience decreased
water stress. Bates et al., 2008
Water scarcity and climate change
WATER SCARCITY CLASSES
Physical water scarcity
Approaching physical
water scarcity
Economic water scarcity
Little or no scarcity
No estimation
Drier under climate change
Wetter under climate change

14. Impacts on crops
Global impacts of climate change on yields cannot be estimated due to
variation among locations and crop types. But the overall impact on grain
is negative—the potential yield loss is about 5 percent for each degree
Celsius of global warming. Lobell et al., 2011
Neil Palmer, CIAT

15. Impacts on livestock
Livestock and pastures could become more productive in humid temperate
regions as global temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius, but arid and
semi-arid regions could become less productive. Easterling et al., 2007
Zerihun Sewunet, ILRI

16. Impacts on fisheries
The impact of climate change on marine fisheries is expected to differ
hugely across the major fishing regions—with some regions experiencing
a relative decline in catch and others a relative growth. Cheung et al., 2010
Projected change in catch (metric tonnes per square kilometre) from 2005 to 2055
Increase (> 0.005 to 0.50)
Decrease (< –0.50 to –0.005)

17. Impact on forests
Climate change is already affecting the diversity and productivity of forests
and trees on farms through its impact on growing seasons, pest and
disease outbreaks and tree population size and distribution. Locatelli et al., 2010
Neil Palmer, CIAT

18. Impact on food security
Many crop yields are expected to decline due to long-term changes in
temperature and rainfall and increased climate variability. The outcome
may be higher food prices, along with chronic poverty and undernutrition
for farming households already battered by climate extremes such as
drought and flood. Beddington et al., 2011; Carter and Barrett, 2006
Olivier Asselin, UNICEF

19. Water adaptation
Maintaining a stable water supply for agriculture requires both demandside strategies, such as recycling and conserving water, and supply-side
strategies, such as water storage. Thornton et al., 2012
Arne Hoel, World Bank

20. Crop and farming adaptation
Farmers must change how and what they grow to adapt to local climate
conditions. Depending on the pace of climate change, adaptation could be
incremental (e.g. altering planting dates), system-wide (e.g. altering
irrigation systems) or transformative (e.g. altering the balance between
crops and livestock, or moving out of agriculture altogether). Thornton et al., 2012
Levels of adaptation in
relation to benefits from
adaptation actions and
degree of climate change
BENEFIT FROM ADAPTATION
Transformational adaptation
Different livelihoods
Different production areas
Different agricultural products and diets
Exit from agriculture
Systems adaptation
Climate-adapted breeds and new crops
Diversification of agriculture and livelihoods
Greater use of seasonal and multi-year forecasts
More reliance on insurance and risk management
Incremental adaptation
Shifts in cropping calendar
Greater efficiency in use of water and nutrients
More intensive management of soils and residues
Adapted from Rickard
and Howden 2012
CLIMATE CHANGE

21. Livestock adaptation
Adaptation for pasture-grazing livestock includes changes in the use and
maintenance of pastures and in the mix of livestock breeds. Easterling et al., 2007
Neil Palmer, CIAT

22. Fisheries and aquaculture adaptation
Adaptation strategies for fisheries will vary considerably across the
globe—from changing locations to shifting the timing and species of
catch—depending on the local impacts of climate change. Grafton, 2009; Cochrane et
al., 2009
Georgina Smith

23. Forests and landscape adaptation
Forest foods play a key role in helping the rural poor cope with seasonal
shortages, recurrent climate anomalies and economic downturns. Thornton et al., 2012
Restore degraded
watersheds and rangelands
Degradation costs livelihood assets
and essential watershed functions;
restoration can be a win-win strategy
for addressing climate change, rural
poverty, and water scarcity.
Protect natural habitats
Incentives to protect natural
forests and grasslands include
certification, payment for climate
services, securing land tenure
rights, and community fire control.
Farm with perennials
Perennial crops, like grasses, palms,
and trees, maintain and develop their
root system, capture carbon, increase
water filtration, and reduce erosion.
Enrich soil carbon
Agricultural soils can be managed to
reduce emissions by minimizing
tillage, reducing the use of nitrogen
fertilizers, preventing
erosion, increasing organic matter
content, and adding biochar.

24. Livelihoods and food security adaptation
Ensuring food security under climate change will require adaptations that
address food availability (production and trade), food access (incomes and
rights) and food use (culture and health). Ziervogel and Ericksen, 2010
Neil Palmer, CIAT

25. Agricultural mitigation potential
The mitigation potential of a suite of agricultural practices that reduce
emissions associated with farming and increase carbon storage is estimated
to be 1,500 to 1,600 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per
year at a carbon price of USD 20 per tCO2e. The mitigation potential through
land use change is estimated to be a further 1,550 MtCO2e per year. Smith et al., 2008
Restore
degraded lands
~135 MtCO2e/year
Grazing land
management
~160 MtCO2e/year
Restore cultivated soils
~248 MtCO2e/year
Setaside, land use
change, and agroforestry
~7 MtCO2e/year
Livestock
management
~127 MtCO2e/year
Manure
management
~8 MtCO2e/year
Rice management
Cropland management
~168 MtCO2e/year
~767 MtCO2e/year

26. Reduced deforestation
The economic potential of global forestry mitigation options is estimated to
be between 1,270 and 4,230 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide
equivalent (MtCO2e) per year in 2030 (at carbon prices up to USD 100 per
tonne of CO2e). Achieving about half of this mid-range estimate would cost
less than USD 20 per tonne of CO2e. Nabuurs et al., 2007; Candell & Raupach, 2008
Douglas Sheil, CIFOR

27. Soil: carbon sinks
Sequestering carbon in the soils of croplands, grazing lands and
rangelands offers agriculture’s highest potential source of climate change
mitigation. These soils can store between 1,500 and 4,500 million metric
tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year. Smith et al., 2007; FAO, 2011
Neil Palmer, CIAT

28. Integrating mitigation and adaptation
Integrated climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies ensure food
security and reduce agriculture’s ecological footprint. Adaptation is a
priority for smallholder farmers, who will pursue mitigation when it brings
benefits without increasing cost and risk. Jarvis et al., 2011
FOOD PRODUCTION
Potential synergies and
trade-offs among food
production, mitigation,
and adaptation
e.g. expansion of agricultural land,
increased use of mechanization,
fertilizer, and other inputs
e.g. improved
irrigation
infrastructure,
weather
forecasting
e.g.
diversification
of
crop, livestock, a
nd fisheries
varieties, improve
d on-farm and
off-farm storage
Agricultural practices
that benefit food
production, adaptation, a
nd mitigation.
e.g. restoration of
degraded
land, improvements of
soil-macro- and micronutrients
e.g. on-farm
production and use
of biofuels
ADAPTATION
e.g. use
of single
high-yielding
variety
Several caveats apply to this figure:
e.g.
reforestation, decr
eased livestock
production, agrofor
estry options that
have low food
benefits
MITIGATION
1. Examples are illustrative, not comprehensive;
furthermore, the examples will not apply to all
countries, farming systems, or agro-ecological
zones.
2. The size and overlay of the circles do not
represent either relative potential or degree of
overlap.
3. The term ―adaptation‖ refers to approaches and
capacities within agriculture, and does not
include ―getting out of farming,‖ which may be
the most effective adaptation to climate change
for farmers in particularly vulnerable contexts.

29. Policy instruments
82 percent of surveyed countries prioritize agriculture in their climate
change adaptation plans. But only 8 percent include agriculture in their
national mitigation plans. Action Aid, 2011; Wollenberg and Nihart, unpublished
Neil Palmer, CIAT

30. Financing
The world community has pledged nearly USD 30 billion to adaptation
financing. By 2020, additional financing via the Green Climate Fund—to be
equally distributed between mitigation and adaptation—is slated to reach
USD 100 billion. Streck et al., 2012
Existing international public and private climate finance sources for agriculture mitigation
International
Climate
Initiative
(Germany)
Hatoyama
Initiative
(Japan)
Norway
Climate and
Forest
Initiative
Bilateral
Environmental
Transformatio
n Fund (UK)
Other
bilateral
programs
Compliance
Carbon
markets
Public
Special
Climate
Change
Fund
Global
Environment
Facility
UNFCCCmandated
funds
Least
Developed
Countries
Fund
Adaptation
Fund
(KP)
Climate
Investment
Funds
Multilateral
Forest
Carbon
Partnership
Facility
Other
climate
funds and
programs
UN-REDD
Other
multilateral
financing
Voluntary
Processing
Private
Investments
(Domestic/
FDI)
Product