Presentation by Paulo Moutinho, Amazon Environmental Research Institute Scope of the global climate agreement, Forest Day 3 Sunday, 13 December 2009 Copenhagen, Denmark

1. Targets, carbon stocks and deforestation reduction:
Proposed benefit sharing in the Brazilian Amazon
linking national and sub-national targets
sub-
Paulo Moutinho
moutinho@ipam.org.br
www.ipam.org.br
Forest Day, Dec 13th 2009, Copenhagen

2. BRAZIL
60% = EMISSIONS
BY DEFORESTATION
(~ 170 MTC/YEAR;
Amazon, 2008)
40% = FOSSIL FUEL
(100 MTC/YEAR, ref.
2008):
> 1.9 million ha/ano
~ 68 million ha
deforested
18% of the brazilian
Amazon

3. REDD in the Amazon/Opportunities
• National Action Plan to Prevent and Control Deforestation in the
Amazon (new phase, operating since 2004)
• Amazon Fund, a voluntary-based mechanism that receives
donations in order to compensate deforestation reduction and
invest in prevention and control (58 projects submitted, 5
approved)
• National Plan on Climate Change – voluntary targets for emissions
reduction from deforestation in the Amazon (<80% up to 2020)
• Amazon States start to develop State Plans to prevent and control
Deforestation in the Amazon (4 Major states = 85% forest Cover
and represents 75% of the deforestation have already announced
the state plans with targets and baselines analogue to NPCC )
• National Target for emission reduction (~40% by 2020 or 17%
below 2005)

4. BRAZILIAN NATIONAL
PLAN ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Avoid emissions
~ 4.8 billion tons of
19.500 Km² CO2 between 2006
and 2020,
considering a
biomass carbon
stock of 100 tC/ha.
Reduce deforestation
by 80% by 2020
Available at: http://www.mma.gov.br/estruturas/smcq_climaticas/_arquivos/executive_summary_pnmc.pdf

5. Deforestation Rates (km2) in Brazilian amazonia (1988-2009)
Lowest rate since 1988

6. The Amazon States

7. How can a fair and equitable system for
sharing financial benefits works from the
national REDD mechanism to sub-national
sub-
initiatives?

8. REDD in the Amazon
Changing the driving forces of deforestation
Identifying activities that contribute to the
maintenance of standing forests
Recognition of the rights to the lands,
territories and resources which IPLC have
traditionally owned or occupied

9. 30% Carbon Stock = 13 billionTC
Source: Soares Filho, 2009, no published data Avoided Deforestation = 5 billion TC (by 2050)

10. REDD in the Amazon
(REDD projects ?)

11. Conecting
subnational to national targets
Assumptions
• Amazon States should commit to deforestation
reduction targets in State deforestation Plan.
• State targets must be consistent and integrated to
the National targets proposed by NPCC
• If all Amazon states adopt the same baseline method
and the same criteria for defining targets, NPCC will
have full compliance with its target
• If all states reduce their deforestation below their
respective target the country will have additionality
in relation to the NPCC

12. Annual rates & NPCC targets
Source: Lima et al, 2009,

13. Reduction Targets by Amazon States
1º período
6,000
5,511
4,698
5,000 4,527 Acre
4,440
3,735
Amapá
4,000 3,785
Amazonas
2º período
3,647 Maranhão
3,009
3,000
2,576 Mato Grosso
1,994 3º período
2,075 Pará
2,000 1,700
1,505 Rondônia
1,352
1,638 932 1,213
1,000 Roraima
545
Tocantins
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Lima et al, 2009, www.ipam.org.brbiblioteca

14. Mato Grosso State
Targets (km2)
14000
11814
47.539 km2
12000 + desm
10405
16.935 km2 96/08
10000
=
Linha de
8000 7703
64.474 km2 Base MT
7657
6543 6963 7892
PNMC/MT
7145
6000 6466 6369
4441 4441
5271 4333 PPCD/MT
4000 3259
2576 2576
2000 2678 1500 1494 1494
2000
1500 1500
870 870
0
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1813191420152116 17 18 19 20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 22 23 24 25
15.000 km2
Source: Lima et al, 2009, www.ipam.org.brbiblioteca

15. Target, Stock and Emission Reduction
The achievement of voluntary state target
coherent and integrated to the NPCC Targets
The forest stock and an estimated cost for the
management of protected area in the region
The effective deforestation reduction and the
opportunity cost of it.

16. National Plan on Climate Change
And Deforestation Reduction
Source: Lima et al, 2009, www.ipam.org.brbiblioteca

17. Emission Reducton from 2006 to 2008
767 MtCO2 = 100%
383,5 MtCO2 = 50%
Distribution of C-REDD Among States
40% Stock
30% Flow
30% Target

18. Emission Reducton from 2006 to 2008
767 MtCO2 = 100%
NPCC Reduction
C-REDD Amazon Fund Federal
Government
PA MT AM RO AC MA TO RR AP IL CA PP STL
Project Project
A B 153,5
383,5 MtCO2 = 50% (Projects and others REDD actions) MtCO2 =
230 20%
MtCO2 =
40% Stock 30%
30% Flow
30% Target
Source: Lima et al, 2009, www.ipam.org.brbiblioteca

19. 383,5 MtCO2 = 50% (Projects and others REDD actions)
40% Stock total 06/08 (C-REDD)
30% Flow
30% Target 7,958
20,238 23,667 6.54 % Acre
23.86 % Amazonas
36,731
6.02 % Amapá
86,352
1.48 % Maranhao
56,645
28.52 % Mato Grosso
15.65 % Pará
21,800 10.15 % Rondônia
2.20 % Roraima
5,351
103,215 5.59 % Tocantins
Source: Lima et al, 2009, www.ipam.org.brbiblioteca

20. REDD
Scope: What is being delivered?
Reference Level: How is it being measured?
Distribution:
Distribution Where/to whom does the money go?
Financing: Where does the money come from?
Environmentally effective?
Economically efficient?
Equitably distributed?
Politically feasible?
Source: Parker C. et al. 2008. The Little REDD Book

21. Foto: Patrick Mcfeeley
Thank you!
WWW.IPAM.ORG.BR
Paulo Moutinho
moutinho@ipam.org.br
Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia (IPAM)