2018-19 agro-pastoral campaign: final figures and the regional market situation, presented by Martial Traoré, CILSS/Agrhymet, RPCA restricted meeting, Brussels, 4 April 2019

1. BRUSSELS, April 2019
RESTRICTED MEETING
2018/2019 season final
figures and the regional
market situation
by Sy Martial, TRAORE, CILSS

2. Plan
• Background
• 2018/2019 final cereal production figures
• Final cereal food balance for 2018/2019
• 2018/2019 roots and tubers final production figures
• 2018/2019 leguminous final production figures
• Pastoral situation
• Regional nutrition situation
• Regional markets situation
• Recommendations

3. Background
• The final production figures for all the countries and all the main
crops have been presented and validated during the regional
PREGEC meeting in Cotonou 27 to 29 Mach 2019 (Bissau Guinea and
Cabo Verde);
• Summary of fish production of 8 countries
• National staffs from from all 17 countries have taken part of the
regional PREGEC meeting;
• Forage balance sheet improvement : Burkina, Mauritania, Niger,
Chad, Senegal
• Weaknesses : Cereal balance and Food balance sheets; Animal and
fish productions

4. 2018/2019 Final cereal production figures
73.2 million mT, increased by 7% vs last year and 18% vs average 5years
49
58
46
56
47
56 55
61
64
67 69
73
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Prodx1,000,000mT
Regional cereal production trend 2007-2018 (millionT)
21%
21%
11%
18%
Nov. : 74M

5. 2018/2019 Provisional cereal production
figures
Situation per cereal
Items
Production
Million mT
Var.
2017/2018 (%)
Var. Average
5yrs (%)
Maize 25 397 158 4,95 22,07
Rice 20 817 297 4,44 14,97
Sorghum 15 259 904 10,36 15,11
Millet 11 014 950 9,83 18,01
Fonio/Acha 664 271 - 0,29 4,15
Wheat-Barley 87 525 5,31 - 28,55
Others 1 500
Total 73 242 605 6,67 17,65

6. 2018/2019 final cereal production
figures
Countries 2018/2019
Production Var17/18 Var 5 yrs Avg
Burkina Faso 5 180 702 27,5 16,9
Cap Vert 3 893 - -7,7
Gambie 92 959 -24,3 -49,6
Guinée Bissau 224 164 6,7 4,9
Mali 10 159 540 9,3 30,5
Mauritanie 408 205 12,7 20,8
Niger 608 5537 4,0 15,9
Sénégal 2 889 022 14,7 55,0
Tchad 3 021 972 11,2 12,6
SAHEL 28 065 994 11,6 23,3
Production per Countries and zones

7. 2018/2019 final Cereal production
figures
Countries 2018/2019
Production Var17/18 VarMoy5A
Bénin 2 087 750 1,3 17,0
Côte d'Ivoire 3 214 091 -2,3 3,5
Guinée 3 942 133 4,4 11,6
Ghana 3 174 472 0,8 11,8
Liberia 257 995 4,2 -6,3
Nigeria 29 886 715 6,0 17,4
Sierra Leone 1 274 348 -15,7 3,3
Togo 1 339 107 2,9 5,8
Pays Côtiers 45 176 611 3,8 14,4
Production per countries and zones

8. 2018/2019 final Cereal production figures
Production per countries and zones
ZONES Production Var17/18
VarMoy5
A
UEMOA 31 179 913 9,0 21,3
ECOWAS 69 812 428 6,3 17,8
CILSS 38 649 075 8,4 19,1
Estern Basin 41 081 974 5,8 16,8
Central Basin 23 067 912 9,3 18,8
Western Basin 9 092 719 3,9 18,9

9. 2018/2019 Provisional cereal production
figures
Cereal production per head
Countries
2018/2019
(kg/head/year)
Var 2017/2018 (%) Var 5 ys Average (%)
Burkina Faso 257 10% 2%
Cap Vert 7 -33% -27%
Gambie 43 -53% -61%
Guinée Bissau 113 -5% -8%
Mali 509 11% 41%
Mauritanie 100 41% -49%
Niger 274 0% 29%
Sénégal 184 24% 52%
Tchad 199 1% 0%
SAHEL 275 7% 12%

10. 2018/2019 Provisional cereal production
figures
Cereal production per head
Countries
2018/2019
Kg/capita
Var 2017/2018
(%)
Var Average 2012/2017
(%)
Bénin 204 26% 30%
Côte d'Ivoire 134 7% 7%
Guinée 323 -4% 7%
Ghana 123 18% 18%
Liberia 59 -8% -49%
Nigeria 151 0% 37%
Sierra Léone 160 20% -10%
Togo 173 -2% -7%
Pays Côtiers 155 3% 9%
Ensemble Zone 185 4% 5%

11. Regional Cereal balance Sheet (2018/2019)
Posts Rice Wheat Millet, sorghum, maize, Fonio Total
Population at. 30/04/2019 400 477 320
5. Exceed(+)/Déficit(-) net 5 918 302 1 620 626 6 239 773 13 778 701
6. Apparent availability/HBT(kg) 50 15 116 180
4. import/export sold 5 428 159 5 705 323 602 296 11 735 779
Importations (2018/2019) 5 421 815 5 231 303 721 035 11 374 154
+ Private 5 356 425 5 222 657 678 544 11 257 626
+ Autres importations 114 544 572 350 43 441 730 335
+ help 36 367 870 2 395 39 632
Exportations prévues 79 177 90 554 122 084 291 815
3. Exceed (+)/Déficit(-) Gross 490 142-4 084 697 5 637 477 2 042 922
2. Requirement 14 002 649 4 457 320 40 040 417 58 500 386
Consomption standards (kg/hbt/an) 33 11 95 138
Human need 13 245 585 4 227 531 37 969 950 55 443 067
Final stocks 757 064 229 788 2 070 467 3 057 319
- Rural household stocks 137 876 75 481 686 606 899 963
- Other stocks 626 188 154 307 1 383 861 2 164 356
1. Availability 14 492 791 372 623 45 677 894 60 543 308
Final Production 2018/2019 20 929 033 87 525 52 226 047 73 242 605
Production available 13 880 164 74 076 44 238 405 58 192 645
Initial stocks (carryover stock) 1 198 913 298 547 1 439 489 2 936 949
- Rural household stocks 486 903 6 806 1 019 168 1 512 877
- Other stocks 593 491 291 741 420 321 1 305 553

12. Regional Cereal balance Sheet
Countries Rice Wheat
Millet, sorghum,
maize, fonio
Total
Burkina Faso -108835 -49458 1108846 950 553
Cap Vert 6515 -1179 -34092 -28 756
Gambie -78378 -19280 -93989 -191 647
Guinée
Bissau
-86679 2971 -31260 -114 967
Mali 884069 119980 3664448 4 668 498
Mauritanie 52011 202619 -43507 211 123
Niger 557272 -61866 580257 1 075 662
Sénégal 518945 171291 656083 1 346 319
Tchad 18667 -89966 167306 96 008
SAHEL 1763587 275113 5974094 8 012 793
Entities Rice Wheat
Millet, sorghum,
maize, fonio Total
Zone UEMOA 3762159 406103 6711627 10 879 889
Zone ECOWAS 5847624 1507973 6115973 13 471 570
CILSS 4246273 926359 7324742 12 497 374
Bassin est 2461768 225420 -58872 2 628 317
Bassin centre 2532392 768287 5628392 8 929 072
Bassin ouest 924141 626918 670253 2 221 312
Countries situations Regional entities
Gross Deficit
Cap vert
Gambie
Guinée-Bissau
Mauritanie
Sénégal
Côte d’Ivoire
Ghana
Libéria
Nigeria
Sahelian Countries
Costal Countries
Bénin 104679 -53490 328043 379 233
Côte d'Ivoire 1894266 323149 322424 2 539 840
Guinée 485299 428062 617396 1 530 757
Ghana -135550 421091 449889 735 430
Liberia 220142 -117438 0 102 704
Nigeria 1781150 430742 -1134479 1 077 414
Sierra Leone -193714 -40129 -400379 -634 221
Togo -1557 -46475 82784 34 751
Pays Côtiers 4154715 1345513 265680 5 765 908
TOTAL 5918302 1620626 6239773 13 778 701

13. Roots and Tubers production final figure (2018/2019)
Crops
Production
Million mT
Var. 2017/2018
(%)
Var. Average 5yrs (%)
Cassava 96 899 780 4,99 17,15
Yam 72 563 080 1,38 18,57
Sweet potato 4 809 964 - 1,98 5,76
Irish potato 1 593 993 - 5,76 10,18
Coco yam 9 784 555 5,60 98,98
Total 185 640 949 3,30 19,91
185 640 949 05 T soit 3% VS 2017/2018 et 20% vs Moy5ans

14. Leguminous and oil seeds final production figure
(2018/2019)
Crops
Production
Million mT
Var. 2017/2018 (%) Var. Average 5yrs (%)
Ground nut 10 089 788 5 29
Cowpea 8 248 260 13 23
Sesame 3 869 163 4 87
Cotton 2 391 074 -9 0
Soya bean 1 460 370 4 22
Bambara nut 200 113 8 47
Others 148 741 74 161
Total 26 407 509 6 30

15. Other productions
Countries Nature 2018 20172013-2017
Benin Total 60 296 65 138 52920
Gambia Total 5 4434 51 662 52562
Ghana Total 444 488 412 618
Guinée Total 37 1891 285 221
Liberia Total 18 436 17 558 15198
Mali Total 103 140 106 220
Sénégal Total 411 627 407 667 400712
Togo Total 27 000 24 910 25163
1 491 312 1 370 994
Variations 9% 5%
Countries 2018/2019 2017/2018 2013/2017
Côte d'Ivoire 1 955 670 1 882 262 1 787 332
Ghana 4 278 834 4 278 834 3 904 700
Total 6 234 504 6 161 096 5 692 032
Variations 1,2% 10%
Fish production (8 pays)
Plantain

16. Pastoral situation
Pastoral condition:
Production :Good compared to last year
80% of pasture zones productivity are good in Sahelian zone
High mortality of livestock last year
Zoo sanitation : Foot and mouth disease and others diseases (Donkey Gourme)
Livestock prices are variables from markets, species, and zones(but increasing)
Accessibility of pasture zone are very difficult : Liptako Gourma, Niger and Mali border;
Lac Chad zones
Bilans pastoraux : Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Sénégal

17. Nutritional situation
The nutritional situation in the region remains worrying despite
efforts of countries and their partners to reduce the high prevalence of
global acute malnutrition.
Latest surveys carried out in some countries reveal prevalence's
exceeding the emergency (>15%) and alert (>10%) thresholds in several
areas, most of which are located in Chad, North-East Nigeria,
Niger, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Gambia, Mali and Senegal.
However, the prevalence of GAM is stabilizing or even improving
in some areas in particular, but is observed in these countries.
The comprehensive response in 2018, which mobilized
contributions from different sectors, combining treatment, prevention
and social measures for populations, clearly indicates that this
multisectoral approach is critical and should be mainstreamed

18. Regional markets situations
Context
Good cereal production compare to last
year and average;
Persistence of inflation in many
countries in the region (SL, LI, NG,
GH, GN, GB);
Reinforcing of cross-border flow but
persistence of road harassment;
Persistence of civil insecurity in several
parts of the regional:
• In the Lake Chad area
• In the north of Mali
• In the Liptako Gourma area
• Niger and Mali borders
Market supply
Overall level of cereal supplies is
improving because of good
harvest and imported
products available in the
market;
Market stock levels are good
compare to last year;
Market demand
The demand is decreasing
compare to the last year situation.

19. Regional markets situations
-1-.50.51
Maize Millet Sorghum Local rice Imported rice
Cereal price
-1:3% -1: 4% -7: -2% 3:7% 2-5%
Overall increase in cereal prices (-0.9 – 1.8%), all the crop are concerned
Commodities Maize Millet Sorghum Local Rice Imported Rice
Var. Aou18 2-7% 11-19% 16-21% 10-18% 11-14%
Oct 18 1-5% 3-8% 6-11% 3-6% 2-6%

20. Regional markets situations
Countries Var vs 5ys
Cap Vert -6,3%
Gambie 3,4%
Guinee 4,7%
Guinee-
Bissau -9,3%
Mauritanie 20,7%
Liberia 21,5%
Senegal 5,2%
Sierra Leone 22,4%
Western
bassin -9% to 22%
Burkina -2,7%
Côte d'ivoire 0,7%
Ghana 12,0%
Mali 0,3%
Togo 7,4%
Central
basin -3 % to 10%
Benin -6,5%
Niger -6,5%
Nigeria -0,7%
Tchad -15,3%
Eastern
bassin -1% to -15%
Region 0,5%
Composite prices of cereals
Average per country
Cereals prices changes vs 5 years averages

21. Regional markets situations
Cash crop products prices variations (vs 5year average)
2.4%
5.2%
29.4%
-0.1%
8.8%
26.7%
7.30%5.40%
30%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%

22. Regional markets situations
Livestock prices variations : Jan - Feb vs average 5years
-1.8%
-1.7% -3.9% -2.0%
-17.9%
-2.7%
4.3%
6.5%
14.9%
1.0%
-0.2%
-10.1%
19.9%
14.0%
10.1%
-4.2%
-0.5%
-11.3%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Burkina Guinée Mali Niger Senegal Chad
Cattle Sheep Gaot
Cattle : -7: 2% Sheep : 0:9% Goat : 0:7%

23. Regional markets situations
Term of Trade
Term of Trade : Over
all is favorable accros
the region
Palm oil/Cereal
Livestock/Cereal
Cash Crops/Cereal
Industrial Crops/Cereal

24. Recommendations
To Countries:
• Engage with partners, the process of building response plans for
vulnerable populations;
• Undertake sustainable actions against malnutrition to
significantly reduce high prevalence of GAM;
• Strengthen and maintain information watch on the markets
and areas at risk of forage deficit;
• Operationalize national management taskforces for the
control of the armyworm and ensure their regular operation;
• Continue efforts for water mobilization, promote
context-specific irrigation systems and large hydro-agricultural
schemes to improve the level of agricultural production.

25. Recommendations
To CILSS and partners:
 Support countries in the effective and sustainable management
of the armyworm;
 Mobilize more resources to support countries in their efforts
to effectively and sustainably manage armyworm in the region;
 Contribute to the financing of humanitarian assistance
programs for populations requiring immediate assistance
 Strengthen national MIS for monitoring and price analysis
systems, strengthen monitoring of cross-border flows;
 Update the consumption standard for each country of the
regional
 Train national staffs on cereal and food balance sheet
preparation in collaboration with FAO;

26. Tendance des prix internationaux et perspectives
(Résumé PREGEC, Cotonou, by M. NAINDOUBA)
L'Indice FAO des prix des produits
alimentaires en Février 2019 est en
hausse de 1,7% par rapport au mois de
Janvier 2019, son plus haut niveau depuis
août 2018
Toute fois , il est en baisse de 2,3% par rapport à la
même période ( Février) de l’année dernière
L’Indice FAO des prix des céréales est en légère
hausse en Février(0,17%), par rapport à Janvier
2019
Mais en hausse de 4,7 % de son niveau à la même
période de l’année dernière

27. Tendance des prix internationaux et perspectives
Production mondiale de céréales devrait s’établir
à 2,609 milliards T soit - 2,8 millions de
tonnes de moins par rapport aux prévisions de
février
Utilisation mondiale de céréales
(baisse) : 2,652 milliards T, soit
+43M tonnes de plus que les prévisions
de production
Stocks mondiaux de céréales pour
les campagnes qui se terminent en 2019
ont été revues à la baisse par rapport à
celles de février et s’établissent
désormais à 766,5 millions de tonnes
Perspectives :
Bien que la tendance globale des prix de
denrées alimentaires soit en hausse, les
prix du blé du riz sont stables voire a la
baisse.
L’approvisionnement de marchés
internationaux demeure acceptable ,
l’offre et la demande restent stables

28. Many thanks for your attention!