The Brussels Development Briefing n.60 on “The future of food and agricultural transformation” organised by CTA, the European Commission/EuropeAid, the ACP Secretariat and CONCORD was held on Wednesday 26 February 2020 (9h00-13h00) at the ACP Secretariat, Avenue Georges Henri 451, 1200 Brussels. The briefing presented trends and discussed the sustainable and healthy food systems, the future of work in agriculture and the need for new skills in very complex food chains, the effects of disruptive innovations, fair and inclusive value chains and trade. The audience was made up of ACP-EU policy-makers and representatives of the EU Member States, civil society groups, research networks and development practitioners, the private sector and international organisations based in Brussels as well as representatives from ACP regional organisations.

1. Brussels Policy Briefing n. 60: The future of food and agricultural transformation
CTA, ACP Secretariat, European Commission/DG Devco, Concord
Wednesday 26th Feb. 2020
Trends and critical issues to
look forward:
food systems in motion
Dr Patrick Caron, Co-President Foresight4Food, Vice-President University of Montpellier, Cirad

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INRA

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Appel de Prague, 2005
1/3….. 1/2
https://guide-alimentaire.canada.ca/
Source: Rockström et al., Nature, 2009
We must transform!

4. Food systems in the
front line
 No. 1 public health issue
 Health of our planet
Paradoxes:
Pleasure, demonization, anxiety!
BB60 - P Caron - 26 Feb 20

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Food systems
Summit…

6. Critical and emerging issues
for food security (HLPE, 2017)
1. Anticipating the inter-connected future of
urbanisation and rural transformation
2. Conflicts and migration
3. Inequalities, vulnerability, marginalized
groups
4. Impacts of trade
5. Agroecology in a context of climate
change
6. Agrobiodiversity, genetic resources
and modern breeding
7. Food safety and emerging diseases
8. From technology promises towards
knowledge for food security
9. Strengthening governance of food systems © HLPE, 2017
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7. 1. Globalisation and simultaneous diversification of feeding behaviour
2. Increasing dependence on international trade but no global market
3. Consolidation and transformation of the agroindustrial paradigm,
together with globalisation of alternative models
4. Planetary consciousness of global challenges and the emergence of
systemic risks
5. Rising number of stakeholders, hybridisation of their status and
proliferation of their interactions
6. Multilateralism in crisis and an increasingly hybrid and fragmented
governance
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http://agriculture.gouv.fr/mondalim-2030-un-regard-prospectif-sur-lamondialisation-des-systemes-alimentaires-analyse-ndeg-100

8. Drivers
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?
Factors of change

9. Feeding 9-10 billion people
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10. 0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Inhabitants(million)
Urban
population
Other rural
population
Economically
active in
agriculture
Despite an overall increase in the availability
of food, hunger remains
 Population has doubled  Available daily food per person
Food biomass production x 2.5
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010kcal/day/cap
MARI
AQUA
MONO
RUMI
VEGE
Source : Dorin, 2009 (données FAO)
Sc Po, 5 Feb 2020 Source: data FAO-STAT
Emerging problems
environment,
climate, social
justice, obesity…

11.  Scenarios
1) Global deficit
2) Increase in available food will solve problems
 ... distribution in times of crisis
 Increase in non-food uses
 Increase in consumption of animal products in Asia
 Inability to reduce waste and wastefulness
 No issue of resource renewal
Feeding 10 billion people
Just a question of producing more?
(+ 100%?, + 70%?, + 60%, + 20%?)
• Implicit doctrine of the past decades (yes, demography)
• Unsuited to the challenges of tomorrow
 Failure to ensure food safety
 Will not solve the problems facing agriculture
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12. At the heart of complex
issues and interactions
Health
and
nutrition
Energy
Employm
ent /
income /
peace
Environment /
climate
Agriculture
Source:
Rockström et al.,
Nature, 2009
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Threat… leverage!
Performance?

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Caron et al. 2018, Agronomy for Sustainable Development

15. Reconsidering the interconnected
roles of agriculture and food
Agricultural
production
Food
security
Health of
ecosystems
Human
health
Social
development
Food systems
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Things need to
change….
Nothing changes….
INRA

17. 3 challenges for science
… and its role in society
 Understanding the stumbling blocks: conflicts of
interest, power imbalances, beliefs, risk management
 Foresight: imagining possible futures beyond trend
projections
 Moving beyond the myth of replication
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18. Barriers and obstacles that prevent action
• Failure to recognise the
right to adequate food
• Power imbalances across
food systems
• Failure to reduce conflicts
of interest
Credit: Jessica Fanzo
Food environments … 9a
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19. Futures and fractures
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Local
governance
Global
governance
Healthy diets…
expensive
Unhealthy diets…
cheap
Reactive
Proactive
Single function
Multi-function, market
and regulation
…
…

20. Complementary and coherent
actions at different levels
International framework
National policies
Territorial and local innovations
Replication?
Rather than scaling up…
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@Nathalie Le_Gall

21. A territorial approach to
allow consistency and
tackle contradictions
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2.1 To manage
resources
2.2 To produce
2.3 To deliver
services
2.4 As a
resource
2.5 To develop
and design… Territory

22. 8 features of
scientific
knowledge
Technology /
disruption
Innovation tools
Shed light on complex
processes and
contradictions
Methods and metrics to
measure performance
New paradigms and driving
the agenda
Preparing new skills
Contributing to negotiations
and science diplomacy
Foresight
Controversy
and ethics
Participatory
science
Sc Po, 5 fev 2020

23.  Delegitimisation, fake news….Investing
 Science
 Interface Science – policy
 Connecting
 Controversies … rather than peddling doubts / certainties
 Supporting actions in the unknown
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http://www.globalfoodsecurityconference.com/

24. Merci!
Thank you!
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