College and University Graduate Retention in New Brunswick
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New Brunswick heavily invests in educating post-secondary students, but how many of these qualified graduates stay and work in New Brunswick after graduation? Using matched administrative data from the University and Community College Registrar Databases and the Citizen Database, Dr. Ted McDonald will share research results highlighting graduate retention rates in the province and on New Brunswick’s return on its investments.
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College and University Graduate Retention in New Brunswick
- 1. Graduate Retention in New Brunswick April 15, 2021 | Ted McDonald
- 2. 2 Research Objective Why It Matters to Understand Graduate Retention in New Brunswick Inform the economic return of NB’s investments in post-secondary education Inform targeted policies that encourage grads to stay and contribute to the local economy
- 3. Highlight of Findings and Comparison with Previous Work Retention Rates for University Graduates in NB 68% after 1 year 61% after 3 years In comparison, college graduates have a 1-year retention rate of 91% A Maritime Provinces Higher Education Commission (MPHEC) 2018 graduate survey found: 2 years after graduation 60%of NB graduates are in NB 70%of Maritime students are in their home province Less than10%of non-Maritime students are in their province of study 3
- 4. Highlight of Findings and Comparison with Previous Work 4 3-year retention rates Domestic University Graduates International University Graduates 67% 24% 1-year retention rates Domestic University Graduates International University Graduates International College Graduates Domestic College Graduates 73 % 32% 95% 50%
- 5. • Community colleges (mostly comprised of NB residents) have higher college graduate retention rates, relative to university graduates. • Université de Moncton (UdeM) is a French-language university mostly comprised of NB residents. Francophones are generally less likely to out-migrate compared to Anglophones, and this may impact UdeM’s retention rates. • Mount Allison University (MTA) graduates have the lowest retention rates among all NB universities. A significant portion of MTA students are from out of province. 5 Highlight of Findings and Comparison with Previous Work Higher retention rates of NB resident graduates implies the significant indicator for retention is previous residence
- 7. Data & Methodology 7 Post-Secondary Data Graduates from NB Institutions Medicare Data Medicare Registry Matched Data Graduates from NB Institutions in NB Medicare Registry Matching & De-Identifying the Data
- 8. Who is a Retained Graduate? 8 A “Retained Graduate” is a matched individual with an in NB 1 year or 3 years after the date of graduation Medicare covers almost all NB residents and individuals moving to NB to live. International students enrolled in postsecondary education full-time were eligible for Medicare as of 2017. However, Canadian students who are residents of other provinces and studying in NB are not eligible for NB Medicare.
- 9. What About UNMATCHED Data? Unmatched individuals are assumed to have left the province. 9 They don’t have NB Medicare because they are not NB residents Technical errors that prevent matching between the data sets Jon Smith Male Nov. 18, 1930 Unmatched Citizen Database Post- Secondary Jon Smith Male Nov. 18, 1930 Jonathan Smith Male Nov. 18, 1930 Unmatche d Individuals can be “unmatched” for various reasons:
- 10. Distribution of Unmatched Graduates 10 By Previous Residence 12% 55% 33% New Brunswick Out of Province (Domestic) Counts All Graduates 43,958 Matched 33,513 Unmatched 10,445 Proportion Unmatched 24%
- 11. Retention Rates of Graduates – by Previous Residence 11 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 New Brunswick Out of Province(Domestic) Out of Country(International) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 2017 2018 New Brunswick Out of Province (Domestic) Out of Country (International) 1-Year Retention Rates (University) 1-Year Retention Rates (College)
- 12. Retention Rates of Graduates – by Previous Residence 12 3-Year Retention Rates (University) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 New Brunswick Out of Province (Domestic) Out of Country (International)
- 13. 1-Year Retention Rates of Graduates – by Field of Study 13 Field of Study 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Education 73% 69% 64% 67% 65% 66% 67% 66% 62% Social sciences & law 72% 75% 71% 74% 66% 68% 70% 68% 68% Business, management & public admin 67% 74% 70% 70% 65% 67% 66% 70% 70% Physical & life sciences & tech 77% 76% 74% 68% 67% 71% 68% 71% 77% Architecture, engineering, & related tech 66% 64% 59% 57% 60% 63% 66% 67% 71% Health & related fields 77% 79% 77% 75% 79% 81% 80% 86% 86% Other 74% 79% 76% 77% 68% 70% 68% 70% 66% a) Physical & life sciences & tech: this field also includes Mathematics, computer & information sciences b) Other includes: 1) Humanities, 2) Visual and performing arts, and communications tech, 3) Agriculture, natural resources and conservation 1-Year Retention Rates (University)
- 14. 1-Year Retention Rates of Graduates – by Field of Study 14 Field of Study 2017 2018 Education 94% 97% Social sciences & law 93% 92% Business, management & public admin 88% 89% Physical & life sciences & tech 67% 71% Architecture, engineering, & related tech 96% 95% Health & related fields 93% 95% Other 92% 91% a) Physical & life sciences & tech: this field also includes Mathematics, computer & information sciences b) Other includes: 1) Humanities, 2) Visual and performing arts, and communications tech, 3) Agriculture, natural resources and conservation 1-Year Retention Rates (College)
- 15. 3-Year Retention Rates of Graduates – by Field of Study 15 3-Year Retention (University) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Education 67% 64% 61% 63% 61% 63% 65% Social sciences & law 63% 63% 61% 64% 59% 59% 64% Business, management & public admin 61% 67% 62% 62% 60% 61% 60% Physical & life sciences & tech 66% 66% 67% 60% 61% 64% 60% Architecture, engineering, & related tech 54% 52% 47% 47% 51% 56% 61% Health & related fields 70% 72% 71% 70% 73% 76% 75% Other 64% 70% 67% 69% 60% 63% 62% a) Physical & life sciences & tech: this field also includes Mathematics, computer & information sciences b)Other includes: 1) Humanities, 2)Visual and performing arts, and communications tech, 3) Agriculture, natural resources and conservation
- 16. 1-Year Retention Rates of Graduates – by Health-Related Fields 16 GraduationYear Nursing Other 2010 69% 63% 2011 76% 71% 2012 65% 75% 2013 60% 71% 2014 71% 78% 2015 79% 69% 2016 79% 64% 2017 89% 75% 2018 85% 75% 1-Year Retention Rates (UNB) GraduationYear Nursing Other Pooled (2010 – 2018) 92% 87% Pooled 1-Year Retention Rate (UdeM*) *UdeM Data has been pooled across years as small counts preclude disclosure by year
- 17. 1-Year Retention Rates of Graduates - by Health-Related Fields 17 1-Year Retention Rates (College) 96% 93% 91% 95% 89% 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96% 97% 2017 2018 Nursing Other 1-year retention rates for graduates with nursing and other health-related diplomas are over 90%.This is likely due to the high distribution of local students in colleges
- 18. 18 1-Year Retention Rates of Graduates by Educational Institution Undergraduate-Only* by Institution 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 UNB UdeM Graduation Year
- 19. 19 1-Year Retention Rates of Graduates by Educational Institution All Graduates by Institution 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 UNB UdeM STU MTA NBCC + NBCCD CCNB Graduation Year
- 20. 3-Year Retention Rates of Graduates by Educational Institution 20 Undergraduate-Only* Students, by Institution 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 UNB UdeM STU MTA
- 21. 3-Year Retention Rates of Graduates by Educational Institution 21 All Graduates, by Institution 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 UNB UDEM STU MTA
- 22. • Limited to those who file federal income tax returns • Location is as of December 31 of the filing year • Less up-to-date than Medicare Registry data • Accessed through the Statistics Canada Research Data Centre at UNB • Retention measured as of the end of the graduation year and in the second year after graduation 22 Work in Progress – Other Linked Data Sources Post-secondary information system data and CRA income tax data
- 23. Retention Rates of University Graduates: Medicare Data vs. PSIS-Tax 23 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Retention Rates - UNB Graduates PSIS - yr0 PSIS -yr2 Medicare -yr1 Medicare-yr3 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Retention Rates - MTA Graduates PSIS - yr0 PSIS -yr2 Medicare -yr1 Medicare-yr3 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Retention Rates - UdeM Graduates PSIS - yr0 PSIS -yr2 Medicare-yr1 Medicare-yr3 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Retention Rates - STU Graduates PSIS - yr0 PSIS -yr2 Medicare-yr1 Medicare-yr3
- 24. • Analysis of the retention rates of students who have not completed their degrees • Labour market outcome of post-secondary education graduates • The postsecondary enrollment decisions and mobility decisions of NB high school graduates • Inter- and Intra-provincial mobility of graduates 24 Looking Forward: The Next Phase of our Research
- 25. 25 Engage With Us ✉ tedmcdon@unb.ca ✉ nb-irdt@unb.ca 🌐 www.nbirdt.ca Subscribe to our newsletter
Notes de l'éditeur
- There is no substantial difference in retention rates for undergrads and postgrads Female grads have higher (71%) retention rates than male grads (69%)
- There is no substantial difference in retention rates for undergrads and postgrads Female grads have higher (71%) retention rates than male grads (69%)
- University - Overall 1-year retention rate of NB Residents is 89%. From 2017 onwards, there is a rise in retention of international students. This could be due to international student eligibility for provincial Medicare at that time and targeted programs such as Atlantic Immigration Pilot Program (AIPP). College: 97% of NB residents are retained after 1 year. These figures show that one’s Previous Residence is the biggest indicator of retention. In other words, if you’re from NB, you’re far more likely to remain in NB.
- From 2017 onwards, there is a rise in retention of international students. This correlates with international student eligibility for provincial Medicare at that time.
- In most categories, college graduates have higher retention rates (1-Year) than university graduates. However, the category of “Physical and life sciences & technologies” exhibit similar rates for both university and college graduates, which could be likely due to higher representation of male and/or non-NB graduates in this category.
- Graduates from UdeM have higher retention rates than grads from other NB universities. UdeM is a French university, and Francophones have a lower likelihood of outmigration compared to others. UdeM also has higher composition of NB residents. Retention rates are lowest for MTA, and many MTA students are from Out of Province. Retention rates are highest for college graduates, and most college grads are NB residents.
- Graduates from UdeM have higher retention rates than grads from other NB universities. UdeM is a French university, and Francophones have a lower likelihood of outmigration compared to others. UdeM also has higher composition of NB residents. Retention rates are lowest for MTA, and many MTA students are from Out of Province. Retention rates are highest for college graduates, and most college grads are NB residents.