Presented by: Olivia Serdeczny
7.1 Appraising adaptation in the context of the less than 2 °C temperature limit
This session will look at how to put the less than 2°C global temperature limit into practice in choosing climate scenarios and in focusing adaptation assessment to these scenarios, thereby reducing the range of uncertainty that used to exist.
Une enquête réalisée par Chorégraphes Associé.e.s en collaboration avec le Synavi. Cent deux chorégraphes ont répondu au questionnaire qui a servi de base à l’étude menée en 2015-16 et débouche sur un état des lieux de la profession.
The PCL Framework: A strategic approach to comprehensive risk management in r...NAP Events
The document presents the PCL Framework, a new strategic approach to comprehensive climate risk management. The framework considers three clusters of response - Preemptive Adaptation (P), Contingent Arrangements (C), and Loss Acceptance (L) - as a continuum rather than a hierarchy. Actions across the three clusters are optimized to arrive at a balanced portfolio that minimizes long-term costs. Key steps involve classifying losses as intolerable or tolerable based on social valuation, then conducting cost-effectiveness or cost-benefit analyses to identify appropriate risk management strategies for each loss classification. The approach aims to provide an integrated methodology for addressing climate risks in an iterative, evidence-based manner.
The document summarizes the modalities used by the Least Developed Countries Expert Group to support least developed countries in developing and implementing National Adaptation Plans. The modalities include maintaining a central repository of NAPs and related resources, hosting NAP Expos to facilitate knowledge sharing, providing training workshops to build capacity, collecting case studies using open NAP processes, collaborating with other organizations, developing technical guidelines and supplements, and publishing technical papers. The LEG aims to improve existing modalities based on feedback and identify any gaps, in order to best support least developed countries in adaptation planning.
LDC Expert Group mandates and achievementsNAP Events
The document summarizes the work of the Least Developed Countries Expert Group (LEG) from 2016 to 2020, including providing technical guidance and direct country support for National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), engagement with organizations like the Green Climate Fund to improve access to funding for NAPs in LDCs, addressing gender and vulnerable groups in adaptation planning, and supporting the COP, CMA and SBI on LDC-related issues. The LEG has produced various guidance documents, held training workshops and NAP Expos, and provided assistance to over 18 LDCs through its Open NAPs initiative during this period.
LDC Expert Group experiences, good practies and leasons learnedNAP Events
The document summarizes the stocktaking meeting of the Least Developed Countries Expert Group (LEG) work from February 2020. It outlines good practices, lessons learned, and gaps in several areas of the LEG's work: guidelines and technical materials, training, Open NAPs, engaging funding entities, mobilizing others, and strengthening gender considerations. Key highlights include that NAP guidelines are widely used, technical assistance is needed to apply learning, co-producing NAPs through Open NAPs is effective, and coordination across stakeholders can help create common milestones and support.
The document outlines several important future trends and milestones from 2020 onward that will impact Least Developed Countries (LDCs), including the submission of updated climate action plans, the commencement of $100 billion in annual climate finance, the first global stocktake of climate progress, 10 remaining years to achieve sustainable development goals, and the 5th UN conference on LDCs in 2021 to define their agenda for the next decade. It also notes a growing number of LDCs graduating from the group and initiatives focused on LDCs long-term vision and sectors like agriculture, land use, and renewable energy.
Least Developed Countries undertakings under the convention and the paris agr...NAP Events
This document summarizes the requirements and undertakings for Least Developed Countries (LDCs) under the UNFCCC Convention and Paris Agreement. It outlines that LDCs must provide information on national circumstances, GHG inventories, mitigation targets and actions, adaptation priorities and plans, financing needs, and education/outreach efforts. LDCs also undertake to communicate ambitious climate actions and successive NDCs to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, as well as provide regular transparency reports on their progress.
Une enquête réalisée par Chorégraphes Associé.e.s en collaboration avec le Synavi. Cent deux chorégraphes ont répondu au questionnaire qui a servi de base à l’étude menée en 2015-16 et débouche sur un état des lieux de la profession.
The PCL Framework: A strategic approach to comprehensive risk management in r...NAP Events
The document presents the PCL Framework, a new strategic approach to comprehensive climate risk management. The framework considers three clusters of response - Preemptive Adaptation (P), Contingent Arrangements (C), and Loss Acceptance (L) - as a continuum rather than a hierarchy. Actions across the three clusters are optimized to arrive at a balanced portfolio that minimizes long-term costs. Key steps involve classifying losses as intolerable or tolerable based on social valuation, then conducting cost-effectiveness or cost-benefit analyses to identify appropriate risk management strategies for each loss classification. The approach aims to provide an integrated methodology for addressing climate risks in an iterative, evidence-based manner.
The document summarizes the modalities used by the Least Developed Countries Expert Group to support least developed countries in developing and implementing National Adaptation Plans. The modalities include maintaining a central repository of NAPs and related resources, hosting NAP Expos to facilitate knowledge sharing, providing training workshops to build capacity, collecting case studies using open NAP processes, collaborating with other organizations, developing technical guidelines and supplements, and publishing technical papers. The LEG aims to improve existing modalities based on feedback and identify any gaps, in order to best support least developed countries in adaptation planning.
LDC Expert Group mandates and achievementsNAP Events
The document summarizes the work of the Least Developed Countries Expert Group (LEG) from 2016 to 2020, including providing technical guidance and direct country support for National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), engagement with organizations like the Green Climate Fund to improve access to funding for NAPs in LDCs, addressing gender and vulnerable groups in adaptation planning, and supporting the COP, CMA and SBI on LDC-related issues. The LEG has produced various guidance documents, held training workshops and NAP Expos, and provided assistance to over 18 LDCs through its Open NAPs initiative during this period.
LDC Expert Group experiences, good practies and leasons learnedNAP Events
The document summarizes the stocktaking meeting of the Least Developed Countries Expert Group (LEG) work from February 2020. It outlines good practices, lessons learned, and gaps in several areas of the LEG's work: guidelines and technical materials, training, Open NAPs, engaging funding entities, mobilizing others, and strengthening gender considerations. Key highlights include that NAP guidelines are widely used, technical assistance is needed to apply learning, co-producing NAPs through Open NAPs is effective, and coordination across stakeholders can help create common milestones and support.
The document outlines several important future trends and milestones from 2020 onward that will impact Least Developed Countries (LDCs), including the submission of updated climate action plans, the commencement of $100 billion in annual climate finance, the first global stocktake of climate progress, 10 remaining years to achieve sustainable development goals, and the 5th UN conference on LDCs in 2021 to define their agenda for the next decade. It also notes a growing number of LDCs graduating from the group and initiatives focused on LDCs long-term vision and sectors like agriculture, land use, and renewable energy.
Least Developed Countries undertakings under the convention and the paris agr...NAP Events
This document summarizes the requirements and undertakings for Least Developed Countries (LDCs) under the UNFCCC Convention and Paris Agreement. It outlines that LDCs must provide information on national circumstances, GHG inventories, mitigation targets and actions, adaptation priorities and plans, financing needs, and education/outreach efforts. LDCs also undertake to communicate ambitious climate actions and successive NDCs to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, as well as provide regular transparency reports on their progress.
Heineken operates 165 breweries across 70 countries and employs 76,000 people. Sustainable development is important to Heineken for three main reasons: 1) Addressing climate change issues like rising temperatures and sea levels. 2) Committing to the Paris Agreement to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius. 3) Evolving consumer preferences for sustainable brands. Red Stripe brewery in Jamaica has implemented various sustainability initiatives including reducing water usage through filtration plants, lowering carbon emissions by switching to LNG, increasing bottle return rates, and sourcing ingredients through sustainable agriculture projects.
This document outlines the proposed structure and content for a book on National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). It discusses including country case studies on NAP processes, early results of implementation strategies, and themes around the limits and potential maladaptation of adaptation efforts. It considers focusing on common experiences between countries and the utility of technical guidance provided. The book would synthesize lessons learned on effective adaptation processes and good practices regarding governance, stakeholder involvement, planning, budgeting, and legal frameworks. It raises discussing factors like development scenarios, priority setting, risk-based approaches, and guidance for global temperature goals.
This document provides a demonstration of CLIMADA, a platform for probabilistic climate risk quantification and adaptation economics. It summarizes the key steps to generate hazard data from tropical cyclone tracks, create exposure data for Bangladesh, define vulnerability through impact functions, and calculate risk metrics like expected annual damage. The demonstration shows how CLIMADA can be used to model current and potential future climate risks.
CLIMADA is an open-source and open-access global probabilistic risk modelling and adaptation economics platform. It provides decision makers from local to national scales with a rigorous risk management approach to identify, assess, and propose cost-effective adaptation measures to address weather and climate risks. CLIMADA uses probabilistic hazard simulations and intensity-impact functions to quantify risk from events like tropical cyclones, floods, droughts and more. It then evaluates how risk may change in the future from socioeconomic development and climate change to help prioritize adaptation options.
Marine fisheries, especially tuna fisheries in the Pacific Islands region, are highly vulnerable to climate change. Increased sea surface temperatures and water column stratification are reducing nutrient levels and primary production. Models project that by 2050, 15% of skipjack tuna biomass could move from exclusive economic zones into high seas areas, potentially resulting in losses of over $60 million annually in license revenue for Pacific Island countries. Adaptation strategies are needed to reduce uncertainties, account for potential stock movements between countries' waters, and maintain jurisdiction over migratory tuna stocks to sustain fisheries and economies in the region.
6.1.4 Methodologies for climate rational for adaptation - GCFNAP Events
This document discusses the Green Climate Fund's investments in climate information and early warning systems. It provides context on increasing climate extremes and disasters. It outlines the GCF's investment criteria and approved projects for climate information and early warning systems, totaling $659 million in financing for 23 projects benefiting 125 million people. The pipeline of potential future projects could provide an additional $436 million for 17 more projects benefiting 1.57 billion people. It examines one case study project in Georgia and concludes by providing contact information for the author.
6.1.3 Methodologies for climate rational for adaptation NAP Events
1) Understanding long-term climate trends through the use of climate indices is important for robust decision-making and adaptation planning. Climate indices can help distinguish climate change signals from natural variability.
2) Sector-specific climate indices that are relevant to agriculture, health, energy and other sectors can demonstrate links between climate and impacts and support adaptation planning and funding proposals.
3) Resources like ClimPACT2 software, ClimDEX data, and Expert Team on Sector-specific Climate Indices workshops help countries access and use climate indices for their adaptation needs.
Maximizing Synergies in the Climate Finance Architecture discusses challenges faced by countries in coordinating climate finance from various international and domestic sources. It emphasizes that effective complementarity and coherence between climate funds and within countries is needed to help address these challenges. Specifically, it recommends that countries strengthen coordination through their focal points, engage in strategic planning around climate finance as part of their NDCs and NAPs, and coordinate programming to identify financing priorities and opportunities for scaling up and co-financing projects.
The technical meeting discussed financing adaptation priorities in countries. The Green Climate Fund has approved 26 adaptation project proposals worth $69 million and has 10 more in the final approval stages worth an additional $23 million. The Green Climate Fund portfolio allocates funding equally between adaptation and mitigation projects, with at least 50% of adaptation funds going to vulnerable countries. The meeting involved panels on maximizing climate finance synergies, private sector adaptation investment opportunities, the impact of adaptation investments on resilience and risk reduction, and sectoral roundtables on successful adaptation projects.
1) The session will discuss how pursuing land degradation neutrality (LDN) and climate change adaptation targets can achieve co-benefits. LDN seeks to maintain ecosystem services from land to enhance food security and resilience while increasing sustainability.
2) Achieving LDN requires preventing further land degradation through approaches like avoiding, reducing and reversing degradation to maintain the land's natural capital. National adaptation plans can integrate LDN planning.
3) Over 100 countries have committed to set LDN targets in line with SDG 15.3, showing growing recognition of LDN's ability to balance competing land needs and achieve multiple sustainability objectives.
7.3.5 A system approach to the integration of the agriculture sector in the NAPNAP Events
This document discusses taking a systems approach to integrating forests, trees, and agroforestry into National Adaptation Plans. It outlines how planted forests can be considered as adaptation measures for natural resource management, agriculture, and urban greening. However, National Adaptation Plans often lack consideration of what is needed to realize the adaptation benefits of forests and trees. There is a need for dialogue between the forestry sector and other sectors to better integrate forestry management plans and communicate requirements to make forests and trees effective adaptation options.
7.3.4 A system approach to the integration of the agriculture sector in the NAPNAP Events
The document discusses priorities for agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors in Vietnam to achieve climate change adaptation. Key priorities include developing crop varieties and production techniques resilient to climate change, utilizing sustainable agricultural practices, harmonizing regulations to increase resilience across value chains, providing early warning climate information to farmers, and balancing structured and non-structured adaptation measures when investing. For forestry, priorities are increasing forest cover, shifting plantations to higher value crops, protecting natural forests, restoring coastal forests, and developing certification schemes.
7.3.3 A system approach to the integration of the agriculture sector in the NAPNAP Events
The document summarizes Uganda's experience developing a National Adaptation Plan for the agriculture sector (NAP-Ag). It outlines the impacts of climate change on Ugandan agriculture, including losses of 800,000 hectares of crops annually. It describes Uganda's adaptation planning landscape and how the NAP-Ag was developed through a participatory process to identify over 21 priority adaptation actions. The NAP-Ag was launched in 2018 and its next steps include disseminating the framework, developing proposals to mobilize implementation resources, and facilitating mainstreaming of the NAP-Ag into government and non-state actor plans and budgets.
2. Slide
NDCs and timeline for 1.5oC and 2oC
warming
2
• Under current mitigation policies, we are heading to a
warming of 3.6°C
• If all NDC pledges are met, this puts us on a trajectory of
2.7°C
• Under NDC trajectories, warming is projected to cross
1.5°C by 2030–2045 and 2°C by 2045–2075 (Rogelj et al.
2016, Nature)
5. Slide
Selected sources of information
Inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison (ISIMIP)
data archive and publications
• Coherent climate impact simulations in 11 sectors, including:
• Agriculture
• Water
• Vector-borne diseases
• Coastal infrastructure
• Biomes
• Fisheries (in progress)
• Energy (in progress)
• Forests (in progress)
• Heat-related mortality & labour productivity
• Raw impact data available for RCP2.6 (1.5/2oC) and RCP8.5 (4oC)
• Data archive publicly accessible
• More information on data and results at www.isimip.org
5
13. Slide
Crop yields
13
1.5°C 2°C
Heat wave(warmspell) duration[month]
Global 1.1[1;1.3] 1.5[1.4;1.8]
Tropical regions up to 2 months at
1.5°C or up to 3 months at 2°C
Reductioninannual water availability[%]
Mediterranean 9[5;16] 17[8;28]
Other dry subtropical regions like
Central America and South Africa
also at risk
Increaseinheavyprecipitationintensity[%]
Global 5[4;6] 7[5;7] Global increase in intensity due to
warming;high latitudes (>45°N)
and monsoon regions affected
most.
SouthAsia 7[4;8] 10[7;14]
Globalsea-levelrise
in2100[cm] 40[30;55] 50[35;65] 1.5°C end-of-century rate about
30%lower than for 2°C reducing
long-term SLR commitment.2081-2100rate[mm/yr] 4[3;5.5] 5.5[4;8]
Fractionofglobal coral reefsat riskofannual bleaching[Constant case, %]
2050 90[50;99] 98[86;100] Only limiting warming to 1.5°C may
leave window open for some
ecosystem adaptation.2100 70[14;98] 99[85;100]
Changesinlocal cropyieldsover global andtropical present dayagricultural areas
includingtheeffectsofCO2-fertilization[%]
Wheat Global
Tropics
2[-6;17]
-9[-25;12]
0[-8;21]
-16[-42;14]
Projected yield reductions are
largest for tropical regions,while
high-latitude regions may see an
increase.Projections not including
highly uncertain positive effects of
CO2-fertilization project reductions
for all crop types of about 10%
globally already at 1.5°C and
further reductions at 2°C.
Maize Global
Tropics
-1[-26;8]
-3[-16;2]
-6[-38;2]
-6[-19;2]
Soy Global
Tropics
7[-3;28]
6[-3;23]
1[-12;34]
7[-5;27]
Rice Global
Tropics
7[-17;24]
6[0;20]
7[-14;27]
6[0;24]
Estimates do typically not include effects of extreme droughts, heat extremes,
saltwater intrusion or pests.
Schleussner et al. (2016)
15. Slide
Coral Reef Loss
15
Reductioninannual water availability[%]
Mediterranean 9[5;16] 17[8;28]
Other dry subtropical regions like
Central America and South Africa
also at risk
Increaseinheavyprecipitationintensity[%]
Global 5[4;6] 7[5;7] Global increase in intensity due to
warming;high latitudes (>45°N)
and monsoon regions affected
most.
SouthAsia 7[4;8] 10[7;14]
Global sea-level rise
in2100[cm] 40[30;55] 50[35;65] 1.5°C end-of-century rate about
30%lower than for 2°C reducing
long-term SLR commitment.2081-2100rate[mm/yr] 4[3;5.5] 5.5[4;8]
Fractionofglobal coral reefsat riskofannual bleaching[Constant case, %]
2050 90[50;99] 98[86;100] Only limiting warming to 1.5°C may
leave window open for some
ecosystem adaptation.2100 70[14;98] 99[85;100]
Changesinlocal cropyieldsover global andtropical present dayagricultural areas
includingtheeffectsofCO2-fertilization[%]
Wheat Global 2[-6;17] 0[-8;21] Projected yield reductions are
largest for tropical regions,while
1.5°C 2°C
Heat wave(warmspell) duration[month]
Global 1.1[1;1.3] 1.5[1.4;1.8]
Tropical regions up to 2 months at
1.5°C or up to 3 months at 2°C
Reductioninannual water availability[%]
Mediterranean 9[5;16] 17[8;28]
Other dry subtropical regions like
Central America and South Africa
also at risk
Schleussner et al. (2016)
It is estimated that only 5% of Kiribati's reefs will survive the current bleaching
thermal stress event. (NOAA Coral Reef Watch)
16. Slide 16
Sea Level Rise – Upper range projections
Turn Down the Heat 2014
Sea Level Rise projections (upper range) in a 1.5°C world. Increases are given for
the period 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005
17. Slide
Risky know unknowns
17Dim
Coumou, Earth
System Analysis
Some large-scale processes in the Earth system are not
well reflected in current climate models, but could have
significant consequences for natural and human systems,
e.g.
• Atmospheric blocking events
• “Tipping points”
19. Slide
Increase in blocking events (July & August)
19
US heat &
drought events
Great European
Flood, floods in Pakistan
& western US
European
heat wave
US heat wave
Cental Asian heat wave
Pakistan flooding
Petoukhov et al, PNAS (2013)
Coumou et al, PNAS (2014)
• Since 1980: 19 periods with
anomalous jetstream patterns
identified
• Recent cluster since 2003
Doubling in Frequency
• Many associated with high-impact
extremes
20. Slide
Tipping points in the Earth System
Drijfhout et al. (2015)
• 37 abrupt shifts in climate
system identified in CMIP5
models
• Including biome changes,
permafrost loss, ocean
circulation changes, sea-ice
snow and glacier loss
• Steep increase between 1.5°C
and 2°C
• Tipping risks increase rapidly for
West Antartic and Greenland ice
sheets
21. Slide
Selected sources of information
World Bank´s Turn Down the Heat report series
• Temperature levels assessed: 1.5, 2, 4oC (where possible)
• WB regions: Latin America and the Caribbean; South East
Asia; South Asia; Europe and Central Asia; Sub-Saharan
Africa; Middle East and North Africa
• Regional and executive summaries translated into English,
Arabic, Chinese, French, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish
• Available at
http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange/publi
cation/turn-down-the-heat
21
22. Slide
Selected sources of information
“Climate-Fact-Sheets” (KfW Development Bank and the Climate
Service Center Germany)
• Country-level projections of climate variables
• Based on primary data (e.g. projections from global and regional climate models
as well as global observational datasets) and literature review for variables
including
• Temperature (annual mean, minimum and maximum temperatures)
• Precipitation
• Wind speeds
• Heat waves and cold spells
• Dry spells
• More information and order form at
http://www.climate-service-center.de/036238/index_0036238.html.en
22
Notes de l'éditeur
Metric
Metric
CDD (consecutive dry days): annual
maximum number of consecutive days for which
the precipitation is below 1mm per day
Drijfhout, S. et al., 2015. Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, p.201511451. Available at: http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1511451112.
Abstract: Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occurmore often forwarming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change.
Levermann, A. et al., 2012. Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe. Review of the current state of six “tipping elements of the climate system.” Climatic Change, 110(3-4), pp.845–878. Available at: http://www.springerlink.com/index/10.1007/s10584-011-0126-5 [Accessed June 23, 2011].
Abstract: We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the “tipping” potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding.