Tabyaoui MOHAMED Government of Morocco

1. Kingdom of Morocco
Natural Disaster Risk
Management in Morocco
For an integrated approach
Mohamed Tabyaoui Technical Adviser
to The Chief of Government Davos 28 -08- 2012

2. Morocco

3. Decision making needs figures
 Earthquakes cost Morocco an average of
85 M$ per year
 The North region are the most exposed
 The probability for an earthquake to cause
a loss of 1.5 b $ is 25% on the coming 30
years

4. Decision making needs figures
 Annual losses caused by floods are 5 times
more important than those caused by
earthquakes.
 Annual losses caused by flood are around
0.44 b $ per year
 A tsunami similar to the one occurred in
the 1755 will produce a wave high as 8 m
and will sink the whole Casablanca port

5. Source
 All these figures are calculated and
scenarios generated by Moroccan national
hazard Probabilistic Risk Assessment
(MnhPRA) a GIS software elaborated
recently within the process of settling our
new approach to tackle natural hazards
risk management in Morocco

6. The story behind

7. Risk management analysis find-out
 Post crisis oriented
 Ex post financing
 Coordination needed among sectoral
strategies
 Program overlapping
 Many actors but at different speed
 law text need updating
 ….etc

8. New strategy:Triggers
 Recent events 2004 earthquake in the
North of Morocco
 Recurrent floods and drought
 Recurrent price volatility
 International organisations (sensitizing;
technical support (WB, GFDR/UNISDR)
 awareness increasing among top
management

9. The needs
 Develop Global and integrated strategy
 Coordinate all sectoral risk policies
 Cause change in paradigm: prevention
and resilience first

10. The 3 pillars of our strategy
 1-price volatility
 2-Natural hazards
 3-Risks in Agriculture

11. Natural Hazards strategy
 Assessment and risk modeling in Morocco
 What if scenarios
 Sectorial Strategies elaboration
 National strategy

12. Assessment: perimeter
 5 major risks
 Floods
 Earthquakes
 Tsunamis
 Land slides
 Drought

13. Risk Modeling
5. Estimate
Losses
4. Compute Damage
3. Define and
Overlay Inventory
2. Characterize
Hazard
1. Identify Study
Region
#13

14. Assessment: Method
 Probabilistic model
 Economic model after a choc situation
 Assessment of risk perception into
communities

15. Deployment/make it durable
 Official Institution for coordination
 Information system
 Financial instruments

16. Task force
 World Bank: coordination +International
Experts hiring +project TOR + project
supervising
 Swiss cooperation +GFDRR : Funds
 Consulting firm : Modeling and risk
assessment
 MAGG: focal point, Coordination and follow
up
 Departments: data, capacity building,
deployment of sectoral strategies

17. Assessment: Project phases
 Hazard Modeling
 Vulnerability/ potential impacts
 What if scenarios
 cost/benefit analysis

18. Assessment objectives
 calculate with enough precision the level
of exposure of infrastructure, population
 Calculate cost (average annual loss , Loss
Exceedance Curve (LEC))
 casualities
 Cost benefit ananlysis of mitigation mesures

19. Data types
3 data types :
- Scientific data
 Sesmic data,
 Meteorology
 Hydrology
 MOU
- infrastructure data
 Industrial zones, ports, airports, rail roads, bridges and road network,
drinkable water canalisation, electrical network, housing, schools, mosks,
sport facilities …etc.
- Data about population
 Age,
 sexe,
 Social situation

20. Major partners
 Urbanism
 Education
 Agriculture
 Finance
 Equipment
 Rail roads
 Airports
 Dams
 Roads
 ports
 Health
 Weather Forcast
 water,
 Remote sensing,
 Scientific community and university
 lnsurance …

21. Data collection: The success factors
 Participative approach
 scientific quality of the work
 Respond to specific needs
 Involvement of politics

22. Assessment outputs
 Risk maps
 Risk modeling and simulations
 Impacts/potential losses
 Economic modeling assuming a chock
 What if scenarios
 Cost benefit analysis

23. What’s next
 Sectoral strategies:
 National strategy: aggregation of Sectoral
Strategies
 National institutions for coordination
 National Bureau
 National Platform for Risk Management
 Information system
 Law texts
 Finance:

24. Financial instrument
 Annual Budgets
 National Fund for Natural Catastrophes
 Insurances
 Insurance to cover Natural catastrophes
 Insurance to cover extrem events in
Agriculture

25. value added
 Readness and resilience for Morocco
(infrastructure and population)
 Better cooperation at regional and
international level
 Competitive advantage to attract
investments in Morocco

26. In reel !

27. Risk Modling

28. Earthquake Catalogue Compiled Catalogue
 Only large historical events prior
to 1901 are considered from Peláez
et al (2007).
 Events from 1901 to 1984 have
been compiled from the book
“Fichier des seismes du Maroc et
des regions limitrophes 1901-1984
by T.E. Cherkaoui 1988.
 Events from 1984 to 1990 have
been compiled from updated
additional records from Cherkaoui
T.E. (personal communication)
 From 1990 to March 2010, event
data has been received from
CNRST
 March 2010 to March 2011 data has
been received from ANSS
#28

29. Stochastic Events
Earthquake event never a
point source
Considered a line source
Area sources are
subdivided into Area-line
sources
Num of Seismic Sources - 22
Num of Stochastic Faults -
1,735
Num of Stochastic Events -
14,670
#29

30. Sebou Basin: Hydraulic Model
#30

31. Stochastically simulated flows
#31

32. Data used in Numerical Model
General Bathymetry Chart of Oceans (GEBCO): resolution (1 min)
GRID A GRID B
GRID C
GRID D
High resolution bathymetry from
remote sensing departm ent and
topography from SRT M
#32

33. 1st November 1755 Lisbon Tsunami – Contd.,
Extreme water surface elevations after 3
hrs of simulation
Gorringe
Bank
MPTF/GB
source
source (Baptista et
(Johnson , al., 2003)
1996)
Cardiz N160 source
subduction (Baptista et
source al., 1998)
(Gutscher
et al.,
2002;
Gutscher ,
2004)
#33

34. LEC/AAC

35. 1
Definitions: LEC and AAL
Kingdom of Morocco
GDP MAD 1,300 billion (2011 est.)
Probability of Loss Budget: Expenditure: MAD 250 billion
being Exceeded
(per year)
Loss Exceedance Curve
(LEC)
0
Loss (MAD)
Average Annual Loss (AAL)
(~ center of gravity)
#35

36. Average Annual Loss (AAL)
Loss (MAD) AAL = ‘pure premium’
Insurance premium =
pure prem. + overhead + profit
Average Annual Loss (AAL)
time
“ stochastic ” ~ random occurrence
#36

37. MnhPRA: Moroccan National Hazards Probabilistic Risk
Assessment
 Models were incorporated in SIG software
 Extensible
 adaptable
 free of charges (open source)

38. MnhPRA – Hazard data aggregation – Contd .,
# 38

39. MnhPRA – Hazard data aggregation
# 39

40. Earthquake losses
Country Level Losses Million
MAD Return Period
Occupancy Average Annual Loss 20 50 100 500 1,000
Residential 506.5 2,849 5,516 8,926 17,680 22,677
Commercial 144.4 626 1,248 3,467 8,021 10,061
Industrial 34.9 193 409 1,066 2,289 2,871
E.Facilities 96.9 549 1,862 1,128 1,855 2,524
Infrastructures 64.2 385 623 810 4,939 6,350
Total All Exposures 846.8 4,602 9,658 15,397 34,784 44,482
#40

41. Flood losses

42. Flood losses
Country Level Losses Million MAD
Return Period
Average Annual
Occupancy Loss 20 50 100 500 1,000
Residential 1,895 9,399 11,232 12,092 13,065 14,718
Commercial 434 1,965 2,342 2,530 2,708 3,006
Industrial 471 2,072 2,242 2,231 2,477 2,569
Essential F 369 1,913 2,214 2,351 2,497 2,751
Infrastructures 1,210 3,152 3,323 3,218 3,427 3,648
All Exposures 4,380 18,501 21,354 22,423 24,174 26,692
#42

43. Tsunami losses
Country Level Losses Million MAD
#43

44. Tsunami losses
Return Period
Average Annual
Occupancy Loss 20 50 100 388 1,000
Residential 23 1 57 1,969 17,639
Commercial 18 2 183 2,385 9,053
-
Industrial 18 143 3,408 8,898
Essential 2 0 4 158 1,421
Infrastructures 133 1 146 23,439 60,233
All Exposures 195 4 533 31,359 97,243

45. Inondations: pertes potentielles par
categories d’infrastructure
Loss Cost
Exposure type Estimated Estimated Exposure Flood AAL AAL
(per mille)
value (million value in Per parts (Million Contributio
MAD) capita MAD) n
Residential 1,126,875 34,148 47.2% 1.68
1,895 43.3%
Commercial 370,877 11,239 15.6% 1.17
434 9.9%
Education 139,428 4,225 5.8% 1.74
242 5.5%
(Schools)
3.81
471 10.8%
Industrial 123,804 3,752 5.2%
0.26
30 0.7%
Electrical 116,538 3,531 4.9%
3.69
Road 105,501 3,197 4.4% 389 8.9%
3.88
Railway 73,009 2,212 3.1% 283 6.5%
-
Fishing craft 63,964 1,938 2.7% - 0.0%
53,956 1,635 2.3% -
Ports - 0.0%
Health 48,339 1,465 2.0% 0.96
46 1.1%
Mosque 40,985 1,242 1.7% 1.92
79 1.8%
Motor Vehicle 31464 953 1.3% 12.30
387 8.8%
Airport Value 22867 693 1.0% - #45

46. Tremblement de terre: pertes
potentielles par categories
d’infrastructure
Exposure Estimated Estimated Exposure
EQ AAL AAL Loss Cost
type value value in Per parts (Million Contribut (per
(million capita MAD) ion mille)
MAD)
Residential 1,126,875 34,148 47.2% 506 59.7% 0.45
Commercial 370,877 11,239 15.6% 144 17.0%
0.39
Education 139,428 4,225 5.8% 6.6%
(Schools) 0.40
56
Industrial 123,804 3,752 5.2% 0.28
Electrical 116,538 4.9%
4.1%
3,531 0.11
Road 105,501 3,197 4.4% 35
Railway 73,009 2,212 3.1% 1.6% -
Fishing craft 63,964 1,938 2.7% 13 0.00
Ports 53,956 1,635 2.3% - 0.0% 0.38
Health 48,339 1,465 2.0% 0.19 0.0% 0.40
Mosque 40,985 1,242 1.7%
Motor 31464 1.3%
24.3 2.9% 0.41
953
Vehicle 21.5 2.5%
0.50
Airport 22867 693 1.0% 19.8 2.3%
Value 0.01
20.6 2.4% #46
0.18

47. Tsunami: pertes potentielles par
categories d’infrastructure AAL
Exposure Estimated Estimated Exposure
type value value in Per parts Tsunam Contrib
(million capita i AAL ution Loss Cost
MAD) (Million (per mille)
Residential 1,126,875 34,148 47.2% MAD)
Commercial 370,877 11,239 15.6% 12.2% 0.02
Education 139,428 4,225 5.8% 23 0.05
(Schools) 9.7%
18 0.01
Industrial 123,804 3,752 5.2%
Electrical 116,538 3,531 4.9% 0.6% 0.15
Road 105,501 3,197 4.4% 1 0.03
Railway 73,009 2,212 3.1% 9.6%
18 0.00
Fishing craft 63,964 1,938 2.7%
Ports 53,956 1,635 2.3% 1.7% 0.01
Health 48,339 1,465 2.0% 3
0.41
Mosque 40,985 1,242 1.7% 0.1%
0 1.21
Motor 31464 953 1.3%
Vehicle 0.3% 0.01
Airport 22867 693 1.0% 1
0.01
Value 13.7%
26 0.02
Agriculture* 20340 616 0.9% #47
34.5%

48. Mitigation Planning Strategies
 Options that reduce hazard Ê
 Reduce flood peak by providing storage
 Confine the hazard in predetermined area
 Divert flood water to another area
 Options that reduce vulnerability
 Seismic retrofitting of buildings Legend
Roads
 Earthquake proof foundations
Proposed Levee
Flood Extent
0 0.25 0.5
Settlements
Kilometers
 Increasing Ground Floor Elevation
 Water level planning for reservoirs
 Hazard Zoning
Ê
Loss Exceedance Probablity curve for households
0.6
With Mitigation
Without mitigation
0.5
0.4
0.3
P
E
0.2 Legend
Roads
Settlements
0 1 2
0.1 Kilometers
0
#48
15,000 25,000 35,000 45,000 55,000 65,000
Loss (USD) Thousands

49. Cost
Decision-making (MAD)
CT = Total Cost
= CD + CI CI = Investment
Cost
CD
= Cost of
Damage
Design level (PGA)
Min CT
= Optimum Design level

50. losses
#50

51. #51

52. Tsunami Warning and Evacuation
#52

53. What-if ’s : 47 cases examined (so far)
#53

54. What-if ’s
what where protected rebuild optimum Cost 2013 2014 ~ 201?
mns MAD 18
#54

55. MnhPRA – Morocco natural hazard Probabilistic Risk Assessment Software
 FOSS (Free Open Source Software)
 Delivered to Morocco
 Loss Estimation System
 Hazard data aggregation
 Exposure
 Vulnerability
 Risk Assessment
– LEC, AAL
# 55

56. MnhPRA – Morocco natural hazard Probabilistic Risk Assessment Software
 Built using Open Source platforms
 Quantum GIS
 PostgreSQL
Secure /
password
protected
Hazard Identification
Vulnerability Assessment
Risk Assessment Built Environment
(Buildings
Economic Impact Infrastructure
Agriculture) and
Reporting Engine Demographics
# 56

57. editing capabilities
Available Damage functions
Structure – 29 type
Site specific – 15 type
Occupancy – 7 type and
Causality
S. No Occupancy Type
1 Villa
2 Apartment in a building
3 a. Traditional Moroccan house
b. Modern Moroccan house
4 Informal housing (habitat sommaire)
5 Rural Type
6 Others
S.No. Site Specific Exposure
1 Airport
2 Road
3 Railway
4 Motor Vehicle
5 Seaport
6 Electrical System
7 Communication System
8 Portable Water
9 Waste Water
10 Oil & Gas
11 Police Station
12 Fire Station
13 Mosque
14 Coranic school
# 57

58. National Disaster Risk Management and Financing Strategy
Mitigation Alternatives – “what if” scenarios
•“what if” I put in a flood warning system?
• What are the benefits (avoided deaths, losses)?
• What does it cost?
• Is the cost more, or less, than the benefits?
Benefits = AAL /i i = interest rate per year
“what if” I…
• Strengthen high risk schools for earthquake? B? C?
• Build flood levees in high flood risk areas? B? C?
• Put in a tsunami warning system?
• With evacuation routes clearly marked with signs?
• Strengthen all houses for earthquake?
• Insure all houses for disasters?
• ….
#58

59. Thank you