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P R O G R A M M E
• Boston Consulting Group (BCG), cabinet international de conseil en
stratégie : "Un plan en cinq étapes pour accroître le rôle de
l'hydrogène dans l'économie belge", étude commanditée par le
gouvernement fédéral
• WaterstofNet & Cluster TWEED : projet de mise en place du Belgian
Hydrogen Council
• Objectif
• Exemples d'autres pays
• Rôles et responsabilités
• Calendrier et appel à candidatures au renforcement d'une chaîne de valeur
belge H2
NOVEMBER 2022
Webinar Document
A Five-Step Plan
towards Growing the
Role of Hydrogen in
Belgium's Economy
1
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2022
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Consulting
Group.
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rights
reserved.
Agenda
for today
Concretizing the sourcing strategy
Recommending next steps forward
Sizing the Hydrogen opportunity
2
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Consulting
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Securing low-carbon, stable, and competitive H2 should be a top
priority, but given it will be scarce (at first) need to prioritize its use
Role of H2 (or its derivatives):
Important & necessary
lever to decarbonize
Possibly interesting
lever to decarbonize
Unlikely to be the winning
tech to decarbonize
Industry Transport Power Buildings
• Feedstock in
(petro-)chemicals
and refining
• Reducing agent in
DRI steelmaking
• Industrial heating
in high-to-mid
temp. processes
• Industrial heating
in low-to-mid
temp. processes
• Bunkering fuel for
ocean shipping
• Fuel for international
aviation
• Electrified and
passenger rail
• Light-duty vehicles
& passenger cars
• 2- and 3-wheelers
• Heating where
HP / DH is
challenging
• Small back-up
generators
• Heating where
HP / DH is
feasible
• Long-term / seasonal
electricity storage
• Firm & back-up
power generation
• Fuel for heavy duty
vehicles
• Non-electrified
(freight) rail vehicles
• Short-distance
shipping & aviation
Policy implications: Priority: Prioritize H2's role
as feedstock and in high-
temp. industrial heating
Case-by-case: Assess case
by case, fuel for ocean
shipping & int'l aviation first
Potential: Assess different
options going forward (incl.
H2 turbines, ammonia, …)
Non-priority: Non priority,
be very selective in where
to use H2 vs. alternatives
Main use
today
Note: HP = Heat pump; DH = District heating
3
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The domestic Belgian Hydrogen challenge: supply ~7-10x today's
demand by 2050, and decarbonize it
Industry
Transport
Power
Buildings
2020
~10
~15
~5
~20
2040
~100
~100
2050
15-20
20-30
100-200
2020 2030 2050
Industry
Transport
Power
Buildings
2050 potential (TWh/year)1
• Reducing agent in DRI steelmaking
• Feedstock in (petro-)chemicals & refining
• Fuel for industrial heating (mid-to-high-temp)
5-10
25-30
10-20
Demand for H2-molecules
& H2-derivatives (TWh)
• Fuel for ocean shipping & international aviation
• Fuel for other transportation types, especially
selected heavy-duty vehicle segments
• Medium for long-duration storage
• Fuel for firm & back-up capacity in
renewable-driven power systems
• Fuel for heating (potentially blended) in areas
where HPs/DHs are challenging
• Fuel for back-up generators
xx
15-30
0-25
xx
2020 2025 2030 2035+
40-75
5-10
15-30
0-25
45-85
40-60
1. Rounded in blocks of 5TWh, assuming a constant industrial footprint vs. today; Note: DRI = Direct reduced iron; Source: BCG analysis
4
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This is not all demand for H2-molecules, but part is
demand for H2-derivatives …
1. Long-term, the majority of H2-based bunkering fuels are expected to be H2-derivatives vs. H2-molecules; Source: BCG analysis
H2: Gas obtained through
steam reforming of fossil
fuels or electrolysis of
water, can be transported
in gaseous form in pipelines
or liquified for shipping
Ammonia: Gas based on
hydrogen and nitrogen,
mostly used for fertilizer
production and industrial
applications, can be
converted back to hydrogen
Methanol: Liquid obtained
by the synthesis of
hydrogen and CO2, mostly
used to produce other
chemicals
Synthetic fuels (synfuels):
Fuels obtained via synthesis
of hydrogen and CO2, with
substitution / blending
applications in, e.g.,
aviation (e-kerosene)
• Steel: Reducing agent in DRI steelmaking
• (Petro)chemicals/refineries: H2 molecules as feedstock
• Heavy-duty vehicles: Fuel for fuel cells
• Buildings: Fuel for boilers and back-up generators / fuel cells
• Ocean shipping: Bunkering fuel1
• International aviation: Fuel (e.g., e-kerosene)
• (Petro)chemicals/refineries: H2-derivative as feedstock
beyond what can be obtained from local derivative production
• (Petro)chemicals/refineries: Local H2-derivative production
• Industrial heating: Fuel for boilers & furnaces
• Power generation: Fuel for power generation turbines
Underlying applications in 2050
Consumed as … 2030 demand 2050 demand
~30%
~40%
~30%
Hydrogen-
molecules
Hydrogen-
derivatives
Unclear at
this stage,
could be both
~25%
~50%
~25%
10
5
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Agenda
for today
Recommending next steps forward
Sizing the Hydrogen opportunity
Concretizing the sourcing strategy
6
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3 objectives in forming a sourcing strategy for BE
Get access to sufficient H2-molecules and H2-
derivatives, meeting EU decarbonization targets
for domestic demand (e.g., REPowerEU), and
positioning Belgium as H2 transit hub
Ensure this access is as economically
competitive as possible, especially vs. other
regions with similar industrial bases as ours
Move to the cleanest version of H2-molecules
and H2-derivatives as fast as possible, without
compromising on the first two lenses
Six routes to get access to decarbonized H2-molecules & derivatives
6
3
2
Northern Route
North Sea region, Norway, …
Shipping Route
South America,
Southern Africa,
Middle East,
Australia
Blue Route
Local, piped (Norway, UK),
shipped (USA, Middle East)
4
Southern Route
Iberia, North Africa
X
X Green H2 Blue H2
Eastern Route
Eastern Europe
(incl. Ukraine,
Romania, …)
Local Route
1
5
7
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2030: Beyond a small amount of local green H2 production, 3 non-
mutually exclusive paths to cover the demand for H2-molecules
"Shipping and Cracking" "Blue as Decarbonized H2"
"Aggressive Northern Route"
Path 1 Path 2 Path 3
• Only to be considered vs. direct use as
electricity under certain conditions (e.g.,
distant from shore, in places where existing
offshore gas infra can be leveraged)
• Reducing the need for blue H2 to meet
targets, hence avoiding residual emissions
& gas price exposure (blue H2 competitive
vs. Northern Route at <€25-35/MWh)1
• Not needing the Shipping Route to deliver
H2-molecules, hence avoiding higher green
H2 costs (up to €0.5-1.5/kg more costly
incl. cracking vs. piped green H2 imports)
• If not sufficient H2 from the Northern Route
can be made available in time
• Shipping Route only an option to meet
demand for decarbonized H2-molecules if
cracking technology matures vs. today and
if this path proves to be more competitive
vs. blue H2 (gas prices >€40-50/MWh)1
• Yet, expected to put pressure on the
competitiveness of local industry given
additional cost of up to €0.5-1.5/kg for the
clean H2-molecules vs. piped green imports
• If not sufficient H2 from the Northern Route
can be made available in time / at
competitive prices, blue H2 to close the gap
• To be pursued to close the gap for clean H2-
molecules if more competitive vs. shipping
and cracking (gas prices <€40-50/MWh)1
• Imported via pipeline from nearby regions
that later can switch to green H2
• And/or produced locally if gas price risk can
be mitigated, with assets set-up in such a
way to limit stranded asset/lock-in risk
1. Assuming CO2 prices of €50-150/ton
Part not yet decarbonized by 2030 to be met by remaining current gray H2 production facilities, to be fully phased-out between 2030 and 2050
Rapid build-up of multiple GW of offshore
wind dedicated to H2 production for Belgium
Ship H2-derivatives from overseas locations,
and crack them back to H2 in Belgium
Use blue H2 to close the gap for clean H2-
molecules, imported or produced locally
8
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2050: Also for 2050, beyond little local green H2 capacity, 3 non-
mutually exclusive paths to cover the demand for H2-molecules
"Full Green – Shipping and Cracking" "Blue as Longer-Term Solution"
"Full Green – Pipeline only"
Path 1 Path 2 Path 3
• More pipeline options become accessible,
incl. major import corridors
• Next to the North (~closeby) and South
(~low production cost), the East could play
a diversification role, but is more expensive
and volumes may not reach Belgium
• Given low costs of pipeline imports from
renewable-rich regions, and net-zero
ambitions, piped green imports preferred
to meet H2-molecule demand (limiting the
use of blue H2 and cracking (up to ~€0.5-
1/kg H2 more costly vs. piped))
• Expected to be less cost-competitive for
H2-molecules vs. pipeline imports, yet can
provide benefits (hedging, diversification)
• Diversification tool: providing access to a
broad set of locations / partners globally
• Hedging tool: hedging against non-(timely)
development of a European H2 backbone
incl. import corridors, and against a smaller
set of potential suppliers via pipeline
• The challenge is the cost for local industry,
given higher expected cost vs. piped imports
• Blue H2 could also be an alternative long-
term hedge vs. "shipping and cracking"
• If more competitive vs. "shipping &
cracking" (gas prices <€20-25/MWh)1 or
more tech-ready (CCU/S vs. cracking), and
if accepted from a net-zero perspective
towards 2050 (capture rate <100%)
• Blue H2 not likely to be a competitor for
green pipeline imports, as long-term blue
H2 only competitive at very low gas prices
(<€10-15/MWh)1 and capture rate <100%
1. Assuming CO2 prices of €50-150/ton
Use pipeline imports to meet demand for H2-
molecules, shipping imports for H2-derivatives
Next to bringing H2-derivatives, shipping as
tool to diversify/hedge H2-molecules supply
Use blue H2 to close the gap for clean H2-
molecules, imported or produced locally
9
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2022
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Boston
Consulting
Group.
All
rights
reserved.
Agenda
for today
Sizing the Hydrogen opportunity
Concretizing the sourcing strategy
Recommending next steps forward
10
Copyright
©
2022
by
Boston
Consulting
Group.
All
rights
reserved.
Taking a step back after the demand/supply insights …
Due to Belgium’s limited ability to access large volumes of competitive decarbonized H2 molecules, Belgium should focus
on maximizing the use of H2 derivatives in suitable applications
By eventually focusing demand on just one or two H2 derivatives, Belgium can both benefit from greater diversity of
supply and keep infrastructure needs simple. However, as a clear "winner" among H2 derivatives has yet to emerge,
Belgium needs to keep flexibility in the short-term and remain open to a multi-derivative future
H2 derivatives will primarily be imported by ship from more distant regions around the world that have abundant renewable
resources and so are able to offer competitive products
H2 molecules are more difficult to import in the short to medium term and should ideally include a component of production
in Northwest Europe (without slowing down the greening of power supply) and be predominantly green long-term
Blue H2 could play an important (transition) role, depending on developments in gas prices amongst other factors
Cracking H2 derivatives to create H2 molecules will be of limited use in the long term as large-scale supply option, given its
somewhat higher expected cost (unless major cost breakthroughs emerge). However, cracking capacity can be valuable in
providing additional flexibility, optionality, and diversification of supply – especially if Belgium is to become a H2 transit hub
Belgium already has much of the necessary infrastructure to become a H2 molecule hub and is planning further investments,
but its potential role as a H2 derivative hub requires further investigation
11
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Leveraging its good starting position, Belgium can take steps along 5
areas to pursue and realize its H2 ambitions
Put the right enablers in place for this H2 opportunity to materialize
E
Enable H2 ambitions by reinforcing Belgium's current business climate, developing & attracting the right set and
volume of talent & capabilities, and stimulating collaboration & coordination
Attractive business climate Access to talent & capabilities Strong collaboration & coordination
Unlock demand for decarbonized H2-
molecules & H2-derivatives in priority
applications at the right time and place
Unlock demand in priority
applications
Secure sufficient, stable, &
competitive low-carbon supply
A B
Develop import, transport,
and transit infrastructure
C
Secure access to sufficient, stable, and
competitive volumes of decarbonized
H2-molecules & H2-derivatives, moving
to the cleanest form as soon as possible
Develop infrastructure to import
decarbonized H2-molecules and H2-
derivatives, and necessary infrastructure
to bring it to the demand centers
Cost
competitive
Support development of the
market and regulatory framework
D
Provide a stable market and regulatory
framework to enable demand, supply,
and infra to develop, and support
Belgian leaders to play a central role
bcg.com
Proposal
Set-up &
call for
candidates
Belgian Hydrogen Council
Agenda
• ‘Five-step plan towards growing the role of hydrogen
in Belgium’s economy’
Tom Brijs, Boston Consulting Group
• Proposed set-up of the Belgian Hydrogen Council
• Goal
• Examples from other countries
• Roles & responsibilities
• Timeline & Call for candidates
• Q & A
The Belgian Hydrogen Council
Aim, Roles & Responsibilities, Timing,
Candidates
GOAL of the Belgian Hydrogen Council
4
Profiling & promotion
of the Belgian
Hydrogen Industry
Solving issues that
hinder/defining ways
to facilitate
implementation of
hydrogen in Belgium
Belgium as a
frontrunner on
hydrogen in
Europe
GOAL of the Belgian Hydrogen Council
• Profiling & promotion of the Belgian Hydrogen Industry
• Acting as a spokesperson for Belgian hydrogen ecosystem equivalent to National H2
organisations in neighbouring countries
• Advising our policy makers on roll-out of Regional & federal hydrogen strategies
• Fostering a coordinated approach of cross-regional topics
• Connecting existing industrial ecosystems on H2 in Flanders & Wallonia
5
Starting points of the Belgian Hydrogen Council
• BHC is a NATIONAL council, not federal nor regional:
•It means: a joint effort towards federal and regional actors, all conversation is in English
• Industry is in the lead, not government
•It means: ideas, solutions, position papers will be based upon industry needs
•Members of WIC and H2Hub are the core of the BHC
•In order to have as much as possible buy-in from industry, specific industrial federations will be
involved in the tasks
•BHC is facilitating the complete value chain of hydrogen
•It means: all parts of the value chain will be considered as equal
•BHC focuses on green and low carbon hydrogen and derivatives
•It means: technology neutrality, no opposition against other technologies, focus on smart
implementation/facilitation of hydrogen (derivatives)
Starting points of the Belgian Hydrogen Council
•BHC is result driven and defining solutions
•It means: discussion in working groups is needed, but clear results and progress are the
only targets
•BHC is directly linked to European hydrogen policy and will follow
developments on other continents
•It means : all European activities on hydrogen will directly be part of all discussions within
BHC and major developments in other continents will be followed as well
•BHC is a respected European equivalent of neighbouring hydrogen councils
•It means: direct contacts and frequent dialogues with neighbouring hydrogen councils
Setup of the BHC
BOARD
X X X X X X X X
Secrétariat
WaterstofNet / Tweed
Annual work program
Sector
Federations &
Invited Experts
Ad hoc
Regional & federal
Policy makers
Task1 Task2 Task3 Taskx
WIC H2HUB
Key-element of the BHC are the tasks
• Starting point of a task is the definition of:
• Issue that has be solved
• Key-elements that should be part of the solution
• The annual working programme of every task will
be defined by the task itself:
• Results of previous year?
• Issues/key-elements as part of the solution for
coming year?
• OUTPUT: position papers & white papers to
advise different governments
• Task1: Policy & Certification
• Task2: H2-Infrastructure
• Task3:Promotion BE industry
• Task4: International
collaboration
• Task5: Training & Education
• …
WHAT
• Members of the WIC/H2HUB
• Representatives from key sector federations
• Invited experts
• Adhoc: Representatives from regional/federal administrations
WHO
• Active participation in meetings and working papers (+/-1day/month)
• Monthly meeting
Target of 12 persons/task
EFFORT
12
Proposed tasks & content
• Task 1: Policy & Certification
• Monitor EU policy & legislation & draft proposals for optimal translation to BE/regional legislation
• Task 2: H2 - Infrastructure
• Support the development of hydrogen infrastructure in Belgium with a strategic focus on coordinated
use, requirements, locations...
• Task 3: Promotion BE industry
• Development of promotion tools for BE H2 industry
• Propose organisation of matchmaking, missions … of BE H2 industry to interesting regions
• Task 4: International collaborations
• Establish structured collaborations with similar organisations in other countries
• Identify partnering countries for future bilateral agreements with BE
• Task 5: Training & education
• Analyse needs of the industry & propose initiatives for development of new programs
o …
What is the role of the board?
• Protocolar function, representing BHC in public events
• Bi-annual meeting with reporting results of previous year and confirming working
program/tasks of the coming year
WHAT
• 7 companies and 1 research centre
• Representing the predefined key-elements of the
hydrogen value chain
• High management level*
• At least 4 out of 8 members need to have
adresses in at least 2 BE regions
• To be elected
• Position for 2 years
WHO
• Production Hydrogen
• Technology
• Infrastructure
• Ports & import
• H2 use in industry (2x)
• H2 use in mobility
• Research
*In tandem with H2 expert from the company, that actively participates in at least 1 WG
The supporting role of the Secretariat
• WaterstofNet & Cluster TWEED
WHO
• Organise & prepare the tasks meetings
• Assist the tasks in formulating recommendations
• Organise & prepare the board meetings
WHAT
Timeline & way of working
• Process feedback after webinar
• Distribution update BHC proposal
• Distribution forms for nomination of the board members
• Distribution forms for candidates for the tasks
Week nov 14
• Deadline fo submitting candidacies
• Start voting for the board until Dec 15
Nov 30
• Consolidate composition of BHC
• Define practical way of working
• Launch of the BHC
Jan ‘23
Feb ‘23
Q&A
Feedback
WaterstofNet
Adwin Martens
Adwin.Martens @waterstofnet.eu
Isabel François
Isabel.François@waterstofnet.eu
Cluster TWEED
Cédric Brüll
cbrull@clustertweed.be
Valère Counet
vcounet@clustertweed.be
Thank you for your attention

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Webinar : Setting up a Belgian Hydrogen Council - 10 novembre

  • 1.
  • 2. P R O G R A M M E • Boston Consulting Group (BCG), cabinet international de conseil en stratégie : "Un plan en cinq étapes pour accroître le rôle de l'hydrogène dans l'économie belge", étude commanditée par le gouvernement fédéral • WaterstofNet & Cluster TWEED : projet de mise en place du Belgian Hydrogen Council • Objectif • Exemples d'autres pays • Rôles et responsabilités • Calendrier et appel à candidatures au renforcement d'une chaîne de valeur belge H2
  • 3. NOVEMBER 2022 Webinar Document A Five-Step Plan towards Growing the Role of Hydrogen in Belgium's Economy
  • 4. 1 Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Agenda for today Concretizing the sourcing strategy Recommending next steps forward Sizing the Hydrogen opportunity
  • 5. 2 Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Securing low-carbon, stable, and competitive H2 should be a top priority, but given it will be scarce (at first) need to prioritize its use Role of H2 (or its derivatives): Important & necessary lever to decarbonize Possibly interesting lever to decarbonize Unlikely to be the winning tech to decarbonize Industry Transport Power Buildings • Feedstock in (petro-)chemicals and refining • Reducing agent in DRI steelmaking • Industrial heating in high-to-mid temp. processes • Industrial heating in low-to-mid temp. processes • Bunkering fuel for ocean shipping • Fuel for international aviation • Electrified and passenger rail • Light-duty vehicles & passenger cars • 2- and 3-wheelers • Heating where HP / DH is challenging • Small back-up generators • Heating where HP / DH is feasible • Long-term / seasonal electricity storage • Firm & back-up power generation • Fuel for heavy duty vehicles • Non-electrified (freight) rail vehicles • Short-distance shipping & aviation Policy implications: Priority: Prioritize H2's role as feedstock and in high- temp. industrial heating Case-by-case: Assess case by case, fuel for ocean shipping & int'l aviation first Potential: Assess different options going forward (incl. H2 turbines, ammonia, …) Non-priority: Non priority, be very selective in where to use H2 vs. alternatives Main use today Note: HP = Heat pump; DH = District heating
  • 6. 3 Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. The domestic Belgian Hydrogen challenge: supply ~7-10x today's demand by 2050, and decarbonize it Industry Transport Power Buildings 2020 ~10 ~15 ~5 ~20 2040 ~100 ~100 2050 15-20 20-30 100-200 2020 2030 2050 Industry Transport Power Buildings 2050 potential (TWh/year)1 • Reducing agent in DRI steelmaking • Feedstock in (petro-)chemicals & refining • Fuel for industrial heating (mid-to-high-temp) 5-10 25-30 10-20 Demand for H2-molecules & H2-derivatives (TWh) • Fuel for ocean shipping & international aviation • Fuel for other transportation types, especially selected heavy-duty vehicle segments • Medium for long-duration storage • Fuel for firm & back-up capacity in renewable-driven power systems • Fuel for heating (potentially blended) in areas where HPs/DHs are challenging • Fuel for back-up generators xx 15-30 0-25 xx 2020 2025 2030 2035+ 40-75 5-10 15-30 0-25 45-85 40-60 1. Rounded in blocks of 5TWh, assuming a constant industrial footprint vs. today; Note: DRI = Direct reduced iron; Source: BCG analysis
  • 7. 4 Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. This is not all demand for H2-molecules, but part is demand for H2-derivatives … 1. Long-term, the majority of H2-based bunkering fuels are expected to be H2-derivatives vs. H2-molecules; Source: BCG analysis H2: Gas obtained through steam reforming of fossil fuels or electrolysis of water, can be transported in gaseous form in pipelines or liquified for shipping Ammonia: Gas based on hydrogen and nitrogen, mostly used for fertilizer production and industrial applications, can be converted back to hydrogen Methanol: Liquid obtained by the synthesis of hydrogen and CO2, mostly used to produce other chemicals Synthetic fuels (synfuels): Fuels obtained via synthesis of hydrogen and CO2, with substitution / blending applications in, e.g., aviation (e-kerosene) • Steel: Reducing agent in DRI steelmaking • (Petro)chemicals/refineries: H2 molecules as feedstock • Heavy-duty vehicles: Fuel for fuel cells • Buildings: Fuel for boilers and back-up generators / fuel cells • Ocean shipping: Bunkering fuel1 • International aviation: Fuel (e.g., e-kerosene) • (Petro)chemicals/refineries: H2-derivative as feedstock beyond what can be obtained from local derivative production • (Petro)chemicals/refineries: Local H2-derivative production • Industrial heating: Fuel for boilers & furnaces • Power generation: Fuel for power generation turbines Underlying applications in 2050 Consumed as … 2030 demand 2050 demand ~30% ~40% ~30% Hydrogen- molecules Hydrogen- derivatives Unclear at this stage, could be both ~25% ~50% ~25% 10
  • 8. 5 Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Agenda for today Recommending next steps forward Sizing the Hydrogen opportunity Concretizing the sourcing strategy
  • 9. 6 Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. 3 objectives in forming a sourcing strategy for BE Get access to sufficient H2-molecules and H2- derivatives, meeting EU decarbonization targets for domestic demand (e.g., REPowerEU), and positioning Belgium as H2 transit hub Ensure this access is as economically competitive as possible, especially vs. other regions with similar industrial bases as ours Move to the cleanest version of H2-molecules and H2-derivatives as fast as possible, without compromising on the first two lenses Six routes to get access to decarbonized H2-molecules & derivatives 6 3 2 Northern Route North Sea region, Norway, … Shipping Route South America, Southern Africa, Middle East, Australia Blue Route Local, piped (Norway, UK), shipped (USA, Middle East) 4 Southern Route Iberia, North Africa X X Green H2 Blue H2 Eastern Route Eastern Europe (incl. Ukraine, Romania, …) Local Route 1 5
  • 10. 7 Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. 2030: Beyond a small amount of local green H2 production, 3 non- mutually exclusive paths to cover the demand for H2-molecules "Shipping and Cracking" "Blue as Decarbonized H2" "Aggressive Northern Route" Path 1 Path 2 Path 3 • Only to be considered vs. direct use as electricity under certain conditions (e.g., distant from shore, in places where existing offshore gas infra can be leveraged) • Reducing the need for blue H2 to meet targets, hence avoiding residual emissions & gas price exposure (blue H2 competitive vs. Northern Route at <€25-35/MWh)1 • Not needing the Shipping Route to deliver H2-molecules, hence avoiding higher green H2 costs (up to €0.5-1.5/kg more costly incl. cracking vs. piped green H2 imports) • If not sufficient H2 from the Northern Route can be made available in time • Shipping Route only an option to meet demand for decarbonized H2-molecules if cracking technology matures vs. today and if this path proves to be more competitive vs. blue H2 (gas prices >€40-50/MWh)1 • Yet, expected to put pressure on the competitiveness of local industry given additional cost of up to €0.5-1.5/kg for the clean H2-molecules vs. piped green imports • If not sufficient H2 from the Northern Route can be made available in time / at competitive prices, blue H2 to close the gap • To be pursued to close the gap for clean H2- molecules if more competitive vs. shipping and cracking (gas prices <€40-50/MWh)1 • Imported via pipeline from nearby regions that later can switch to green H2 • And/or produced locally if gas price risk can be mitigated, with assets set-up in such a way to limit stranded asset/lock-in risk 1. Assuming CO2 prices of €50-150/ton Part not yet decarbonized by 2030 to be met by remaining current gray H2 production facilities, to be fully phased-out between 2030 and 2050 Rapid build-up of multiple GW of offshore wind dedicated to H2 production for Belgium Ship H2-derivatives from overseas locations, and crack them back to H2 in Belgium Use blue H2 to close the gap for clean H2- molecules, imported or produced locally
  • 11. 8 Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. 2050: Also for 2050, beyond little local green H2 capacity, 3 non- mutually exclusive paths to cover the demand for H2-molecules "Full Green – Shipping and Cracking" "Blue as Longer-Term Solution" "Full Green – Pipeline only" Path 1 Path 2 Path 3 • More pipeline options become accessible, incl. major import corridors • Next to the North (~closeby) and South (~low production cost), the East could play a diversification role, but is more expensive and volumes may not reach Belgium • Given low costs of pipeline imports from renewable-rich regions, and net-zero ambitions, piped green imports preferred to meet H2-molecule demand (limiting the use of blue H2 and cracking (up to ~€0.5- 1/kg H2 more costly vs. piped)) • Expected to be less cost-competitive for H2-molecules vs. pipeline imports, yet can provide benefits (hedging, diversification) • Diversification tool: providing access to a broad set of locations / partners globally • Hedging tool: hedging against non-(timely) development of a European H2 backbone incl. import corridors, and against a smaller set of potential suppliers via pipeline • The challenge is the cost for local industry, given higher expected cost vs. piped imports • Blue H2 could also be an alternative long- term hedge vs. "shipping and cracking" • If more competitive vs. "shipping & cracking" (gas prices <€20-25/MWh)1 or more tech-ready (CCU/S vs. cracking), and if accepted from a net-zero perspective towards 2050 (capture rate <100%) • Blue H2 not likely to be a competitor for green pipeline imports, as long-term blue H2 only competitive at very low gas prices (<€10-15/MWh)1 and capture rate <100% 1. Assuming CO2 prices of €50-150/ton Use pipeline imports to meet demand for H2- molecules, shipping imports for H2-derivatives Next to bringing H2-derivatives, shipping as tool to diversify/hedge H2-molecules supply Use blue H2 to close the gap for clean H2- molecules, imported or produced locally
  • 12. 9 Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Agenda for today Sizing the Hydrogen opportunity Concretizing the sourcing strategy Recommending next steps forward
  • 13. 10 Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Taking a step back after the demand/supply insights … Due to Belgium’s limited ability to access large volumes of competitive decarbonized H2 molecules, Belgium should focus on maximizing the use of H2 derivatives in suitable applications By eventually focusing demand on just one or two H2 derivatives, Belgium can both benefit from greater diversity of supply and keep infrastructure needs simple. However, as a clear "winner" among H2 derivatives has yet to emerge, Belgium needs to keep flexibility in the short-term and remain open to a multi-derivative future H2 derivatives will primarily be imported by ship from more distant regions around the world that have abundant renewable resources and so are able to offer competitive products H2 molecules are more difficult to import in the short to medium term and should ideally include a component of production in Northwest Europe (without slowing down the greening of power supply) and be predominantly green long-term Blue H2 could play an important (transition) role, depending on developments in gas prices amongst other factors Cracking H2 derivatives to create H2 molecules will be of limited use in the long term as large-scale supply option, given its somewhat higher expected cost (unless major cost breakthroughs emerge). However, cracking capacity can be valuable in providing additional flexibility, optionality, and diversification of supply – especially if Belgium is to become a H2 transit hub Belgium already has much of the necessary infrastructure to become a H2 molecule hub and is planning further investments, but its potential role as a H2 derivative hub requires further investigation
  • 14. 11 Copyright © 2022 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Leveraging its good starting position, Belgium can take steps along 5 areas to pursue and realize its H2 ambitions Put the right enablers in place for this H2 opportunity to materialize E Enable H2 ambitions by reinforcing Belgium's current business climate, developing & attracting the right set and volume of talent & capabilities, and stimulating collaboration & coordination Attractive business climate Access to talent & capabilities Strong collaboration & coordination Unlock demand for decarbonized H2- molecules & H2-derivatives in priority applications at the right time and place Unlock demand in priority applications Secure sufficient, stable, & competitive low-carbon supply A B Develop import, transport, and transit infrastructure C Secure access to sufficient, stable, and competitive volumes of decarbonized H2-molecules & H2-derivatives, moving to the cleanest form as soon as possible Develop infrastructure to import decarbonized H2-molecules and H2- derivatives, and necessary infrastructure to bring it to the demand centers Cost competitive Support development of the market and regulatory framework D Provide a stable market and regulatory framework to enable demand, supply, and infra to develop, and support Belgian leaders to play a central role
  • 17. Agenda • ‘Five-step plan towards growing the role of hydrogen in Belgium’s economy’ Tom Brijs, Boston Consulting Group • Proposed set-up of the Belgian Hydrogen Council • Goal • Examples from other countries • Roles & responsibilities • Timeline & Call for candidates • Q & A
  • 18. The Belgian Hydrogen Council Aim, Roles & Responsibilities, Timing, Candidates
  • 19. GOAL of the Belgian Hydrogen Council 4 Profiling & promotion of the Belgian Hydrogen Industry Solving issues that hinder/defining ways to facilitate implementation of hydrogen in Belgium Belgium as a frontrunner on hydrogen in Europe
  • 20. GOAL of the Belgian Hydrogen Council • Profiling & promotion of the Belgian Hydrogen Industry • Acting as a spokesperson for Belgian hydrogen ecosystem equivalent to National H2 organisations in neighbouring countries • Advising our policy makers on roll-out of Regional & federal hydrogen strategies • Fostering a coordinated approach of cross-regional topics • Connecting existing industrial ecosystems on H2 in Flanders & Wallonia 5
  • 21. Starting points of the Belgian Hydrogen Council • BHC is a NATIONAL council, not federal nor regional: •It means: a joint effort towards federal and regional actors, all conversation is in English • Industry is in the lead, not government •It means: ideas, solutions, position papers will be based upon industry needs •Members of WIC and H2Hub are the core of the BHC •In order to have as much as possible buy-in from industry, specific industrial federations will be involved in the tasks •BHC is facilitating the complete value chain of hydrogen •It means: all parts of the value chain will be considered as equal •BHC focuses on green and low carbon hydrogen and derivatives •It means: technology neutrality, no opposition against other technologies, focus on smart implementation/facilitation of hydrogen (derivatives)
  • 22. Starting points of the Belgian Hydrogen Council •BHC is result driven and defining solutions •It means: discussion in working groups is needed, but clear results and progress are the only targets •BHC is directly linked to European hydrogen policy and will follow developments on other continents •It means : all European activities on hydrogen will directly be part of all discussions within BHC and major developments in other continents will be followed as well •BHC is a respected European equivalent of neighbouring hydrogen councils •It means: direct contacts and frequent dialogues with neighbouring hydrogen councils
  • 23. Setup of the BHC BOARD X X X X X X X X Secrétariat WaterstofNet / Tweed Annual work program Sector Federations & Invited Experts Ad hoc Regional & federal Policy makers Task1 Task2 Task3 Taskx WIC H2HUB
  • 24. Key-element of the BHC are the tasks • Starting point of a task is the definition of: • Issue that has be solved • Key-elements that should be part of the solution • The annual working programme of every task will be defined by the task itself: • Results of previous year? • Issues/key-elements as part of the solution for coming year? • OUTPUT: position papers & white papers to advise different governments • Task1: Policy & Certification • Task2: H2-Infrastructure • Task3:Promotion BE industry • Task4: International collaboration • Task5: Training & Education • … WHAT • Members of the WIC/H2HUB • Representatives from key sector federations • Invited experts • Adhoc: Representatives from regional/federal administrations WHO • Active participation in meetings and working papers (+/-1day/month) • Monthly meeting Target of 12 persons/task EFFORT
  • 25. 12 Proposed tasks & content • Task 1: Policy & Certification • Monitor EU policy & legislation & draft proposals for optimal translation to BE/regional legislation • Task 2: H2 - Infrastructure • Support the development of hydrogen infrastructure in Belgium with a strategic focus on coordinated use, requirements, locations... • Task 3: Promotion BE industry • Development of promotion tools for BE H2 industry • Propose organisation of matchmaking, missions … of BE H2 industry to interesting regions • Task 4: International collaborations • Establish structured collaborations with similar organisations in other countries • Identify partnering countries for future bilateral agreements with BE • Task 5: Training & education • Analyse needs of the industry & propose initiatives for development of new programs o …
  • 26. What is the role of the board? • Protocolar function, representing BHC in public events • Bi-annual meeting with reporting results of previous year and confirming working program/tasks of the coming year WHAT • 7 companies and 1 research centre • Representing the predefined key-elements of the hydrogen value chain • High management level* • At least 4 out of 8 members need to have adresses in at least 2 BE regions • To be elected • Position for 2 years WHO • Production Hydrogen • Technology • Infrastructure • Ports & import • H2 use in industry (2x) • H2 use in mobility • Research *In tandem with H2 expert from the company, that actively participates in at least 1 WG
  • 27. The supporting role of the Secretariat • WaterstofNet & Cluster TWEED WHO • Organise & prepare the tasks meetings • Assist the tasks in formulating recommendations • Organise & prepare the board meetings WHAT
  • 28. Timeline & way of working • Process feedback after webinar • Distribution update BHC proposal • Distribution forms for nomination of the board members • Distribution forms for candidates for the tasks Week nov 14 • Deadline fo submitting candidacies • Start voting for the board until Dec 15 Nov 30 • Consolidate composition of BHC • Define practical way of working • Launch of the BHC Jan ‘23 Feb ‘23
  • 30. WaterstofNet Adwin Martens Adwin.Martens @waterstofnet.eu Isabel François Isabel.François@waterstofnet.eu Cluster TWEED Cédric Brüll cbrull@clustertweed.be Valère Counet vcounet@clustertweed.be Thank you for your attention