Food price, inflation and nutritional vulnerability in the Sahel and West Africa - 08.12.2022.ppt
1. Food price, inflation and nutritional
vulnerability in the Sahel and West
Africa
Presenter: Kanar Dizyee & Jill Bouscarat, Food Systems Team, SWAC/OECD
RPCA 38th annual meeting
08 December 2022, Lomé, Togo
2. Table of contents
Cost of healthy diets
• Cost of diets: CoCA, CoNA,
and CoHD
• Food groups and cost of diets
growth
• Price growth of healthy diets
(inflation, covid-19, etc.)
01 02
Price and markets
• Spatial heterogeneity of food
prices
• Heterogeneity between
products
• Market functionality
03
Conclusion and
discussion
3. 0
1
2
3
4
Southern Africa North Africa Central Africa SWAC East Africa
2017
USD
Cost of calorie adequate (CoCA) and healthy diets (CoHD)
CoCA CoHD
Cost of healthy diets in West Africa is cheaper than other parts of
Africa
Source: Bai et al. (2021); Herforth et al. (2022); World Bank ICP data (2017)
4. 0
1
2
3
4
2017
USD
Cost of diets
CoCA CoNA CoHD
Healthy diets are substantially more expensive than energy
adequate diets
Source: Bai et al. (2021); Herforth et al. (2022); World Bank ICP data (2017)
5. 0x 1x 2x 3x 4x 5x 6x
Liberia
Niger
Ghana
Burkina Faso
Benin
SWAC
Chad
Sierra Leone
Gambia
Cameroon
Mali
Côte d'Ivoire
Mauritania
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Cabo Verde
Senegal
Nigeria
Cost of HD & CoCA to food expenditure ratio
CoHD_fexp_2017
CoCA_fexp_2017
Equals daily food expenditure
Healthy diets are unaffordable for the majority
Source: Bai et al. (2021); Herforth et al. (2022); World Bank ICP data (2017)
6. Cost of healthy diets driven by all food groups, with large
variations across countries
15%
26%
21%
28%
7%
4%
Nigeria Fruits
Vegetables
Starchy
staples
Animal-
sourced food
Legumes, nuts
and seeds
Oils and fats
12%
49%
14%
15%
5%
5%
Guinea
22%
21%
32%
17%
6%
2%
Liberia
Source: Bai et al. (2021); Herforth et al. (2022); World Bank ICP data (2017)
7. Food price inflation of healthy diets
Source: World Bank ICP data (2017)
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
International
USD
Cost of a Healthy Diet
Nigeria Mali Chad
COVID19
8. Cost of nutritious diets vary per gender and age cohort
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
4-8y 9-13y 14-18y 19-30y 31-50y 51-70y 70y+
2017
USD
Cost of diets - gender and age groups
Male
Female
Pregnant Female
Lactational Female
Source: Bai et al. (2022); World Bank ICP data (2017)
9. De fortes hétérogénéités de prix sont
observées entre les pays et au sein des
pays.
Ces disparités importantes rendent
compte de dysfonctionnements au niveau
des marchés.
Elles appellent à un renforcement du suivi
des marchés (et de leur compréhension)
et des prix.
Prix, hétérogénéités spatiales et fonctionnement des marchés
10. De fortes variations spatiales existent au sein des pays
Variation du prix d’un KG de tomates (par rapport à la
moyenne) - Jan 2021.
Tomates - Juin 2021.
11. De fortes variations spatiales existent au sein des pays
Variation du prix d’un KG d’oignons (par rapport à la
moyenne) - Jan 2021.
Oignons - Juin 2021.
12. De fortes variations spatiales existent au sein des pays
Variation du prix d’un KG de sorgho (par rapport à la
moyenne) - Jan 2021.
Sorgho - Juin 2021.
13. Variations des prix entre les marchés au Burkina Faso (Juin ‘21)
Prix / KG (FCFA)
Prix / KG (FCFA)
Viande de mouton X 2
Sorgho X 2
Mil X 2.1
Poisson frais X 2.3
Oignon X 4.3
Tomate fraîche X 5.6
Des disparités plus importantes de prix pour les produits non
céréaliers
14. Des prix instables et difficilement prévisibles
Plus de 40% des marchés
enquêtés pour lesquels la
prévisibilité des prix est
critique.
Indicateur de prévisibilité des prix (Market Functionality Index, PAM)
15. Conclusion
• L’intégration des objectifs nutritifs et d’alimentations saines
nécessite une attention renforcée sur les produits non céréaliers.
• La prévention des crises alimentaires et l’identification de
mesures adaptées pour répondre à la situation alimentaire et
nutritionnelle requiert un suivi et une meilleure compréhension
des marchés.
• Une approche par les systèmes alimentaires permet
l’identification de politiques plus adaptées, structurelles et
efficientes.
Notes de l'éditeur
Bai, Y., Alemu, R., Block, S. A., Headey, D., & Masters, W. A. (2021). Cost and affordability of nutritious diets at retail prices: evidence from 177 countries. Food Policy, 99, 101983.
Herforth, A., Venkat, A., Bai, Y., Costlow, L., Holleman, C., & Masters, W. A. (2022). Methods and options to monitor the cost and affordability of a healthy diet globally Background paper for The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2022 (No. 324075). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
Bai, Y., Alemu, R., Block, S. A., Headey, D., & Masters, W. A. (2021). Cost and affordability of nutritious diets at retail prices: evidence from 177 countries. Food Policy, 99, 101983.
Herforth, A., Venkat, A., Bai, Y., Costlow, L., Holleman, C., & Masters, W. A. (2022). Methods and options to monitor the cost and affordability of a healthy diet globally Background paper for The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2022 (No. 324075). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
Bai, Y., Alemu, R., Block, S. A., Headey, D., & Masters, W. A. (2021). Cost and affordability of nutritious diets at retail prices: evidence from 177 countries. Food Policy, 99, 101983.
Herforth, A., Venkat, A., Bai, Y., Costlow, L., Holleman, C., & Masters, W. A. (2022). Methods and options to monitor the cost and affordability of a healthy diet globally Background paper for The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2022 (No. 324075). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
Bai, Y., Alemu, R., Block, S. A., Headey, D., & Masters, W. A. (2021). Cost and affordability of nutritious diets at retail prices: evidence from 177 countries. Food Policy, 99, 101983.
Herforth, A., Venkat, A., Bai, Y., Costlow, L., Holleman, C., & Masters, W. A. (2022). Methods and options to monitor the cost and affordability of a healthy diet globally Background paper for The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2022 (No. 324075). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
Bai, Y., Herforth, A., & Masters, W. A. (2022). Global variation in the cost of a nutrient-adequate diet by population group: an observational study. The Lancet Planetary Health, 6(1), e19-e28.
Chicago
Bai, Y., Herforth, A., & Masters, W. A. (2022). Global variation in the cost of a nutrient-adequate diet by population group: an observational study. The Lancet Planetary Health, 6(1), e19-e28.
Chicago