Integrating climate change adaptation in development planning in Morocco - NAP-GSP.
What is the process to formulate and implement National Adaptation Plans (NAPs)? How can it be used to reduce Morocco’s vulnerability to climate change and integrate climate change adaptation into ongoing development planning processes? How can decision makers include the gender lens to build more inclusive and more effective initiatives? What does Morocco’s current road map for conducting its NAP process look like, and how can it be further enhanced for effective delivery?
These were just some of the questions discussed at a workshop held in Marrakesh, 17-20 April 2017. The workshop was co-hosted by GIZ, UNDP and UNITAR, and supported through the GIZ Environment and Climate Governance project, and aimed at developing and strengthening the technical expertise of Morocco climate action focal points from several departments.
Thailand UNDP-GIZ workshop on CBA - Effective water management and sustainabl...
Session 6 - Analyse bénéfice coûts
1. Atelier de formation PNA Maroc
17-20 Avril 2017
Marrakech
Session 6 – 2
Analyse bénéfice-coût (ABC)
2. Atelier de formation
PNA Maroc
• L’évaluation d’options d’adaptations distinctes mais également
plausibles demande l’utilization de l’ABC pour chaque option.
• Ceci permet une comparaison objective des différentes
options.
• Pour les options d’adaptation qui ont impliquent un secteur
entier, il y a besoin d’une analyse de marché pour voir
comment les systems économiques entiers seront affectés.
Une manière objective de comparer les options
3. Atelier de formation
PNA Maroc
Lors de la prise de décision, l’analyse des “trade off” et compromis est
inévitable. Les coûts et les bénéfices de l’action ou de l’inaction
doivent être compris pour la prise de décision.
-Additionner les coûts, additionner les bénéfices, si les bénéfices nets
sont positifs – allons y!
• Est-ce vraiment si simple?
Principe
4. Atelier de formation
PNA Maroc
• Exemple de l’analyse d’un projet sous incertitude:
• Supposons qu’un barrage de petite taille coûte $1 milliard, a
un barrage de grande taille coûte $1.5 milliard et qu’avec le
climat actuel, on s’attend à une benefice de $1.2 milliard
pour le petit et $1.6 milliard pour le grand
petit barrage est une meilleure option: gain net de $200
million
• Dans un climat futur plus humide, on peut supposer que les
bénéfices du petits barrage monte à $1.3 milliard alors que
les bénéfices du grand barrage montent à $2 milliard
Le grand est maintenant une meilleure option avec un
gain net de $500 million.
Exemple
5. Atelier de formation
PNA Maroc
1. Définir l’étendue de l’analyse
2. Identifier tous les impacts potentiels du projet
3. Quantifier les impacts prévus
4. Attribuer une valeur monétaire aux impacts
5. Actualiser la valeur des coûts et bénéfices en valeur actuelle
6. Calculer la valeur présente nette
7. Procéder à une analyse de la valeur attendue / de risques
8. Emettre des recommendations
8 Etapes proposées
6. Atelier de formation
PNA Maroc
Souvent les coûts des mesures d’adaptation sont largement payés au
début du projet, alors que les bénéfices s’échelonnent sur une longue
durée.
La valeur de l’argent varie dans le temps (inflation ou déprciation,
change, etc.).
Il y a une preference pour les bénéfices immédiats.
Il faut developer un taux d’actualization.
Actualisation des coûts
7. Atelier de formation
PNA Maroc
Actualisation des coûts
• Utiliser cette formule pour convertir
les valeurs futures en valeur actuelle:
– AV = FV(t) / (1+r)t
Où
• FV est la valeur future
attendue
• r est le taux d’actualisation
(valeur entre 0 et 1)
• t est le temps
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Value
Year
The impact of a discount rate on present value
estimates
15%
12%
9%
6%
3%
8. Atelier de formation
PNA Maroc
• Il est difficile d’estimer justement la valeur des bénéfices qui ne sont pas
monétarisés.
• L’ABC est un outil qui permet le soutien à la décision, mais il ne devrait pas
être le seul critère de décision.
• Si effectuée correctement, l’ABC permet de comparer des investissement
qui doivent être faits aujourd’hui mais et dont les bénéfices accroissent
avec le temps.
• Le taux d’actualisation peut affecter fortement l’analyse – dans certains
pays, les autorités de planification ont déjà défini un taux d’actualization.
• Important de tenir en compte l’incertitude sur la durée.
• Dans le processus NAP, les résultats de l’ABC peuvent être utilizes comme
l’une des manières pour évaluer et prioriser les options d’adaptation
identifiées. Des considerations politiques et sociales doivent aussi être
prises en compte.
Limites et potentiel de l’ABC dans le processus NAP
Notes de l'éditeur
INSTRUCTIONS FOR PRESENTERS:
SLIDE 1 – TITLE SLIDE
[Fill in the details on the title page: your country / main relevant initiative / your name / your ministry / country flag]
This presentation will contribute relevant experiences and lessons learnt from your country towards Element C: Implementation strategies
Main steps under Element C in the UNFCCC/LEG technical guidelines are as follows:
Prioritizing climate change adaptation in national planning.
Developing a (long term) national adaptation implementation strategy.
Enhancing capacity for planning and implementation of adaptation.
Promoting coordination and synergy at the regional level and with other multilateral environmental agreements.
INSTRUCTIONS FOR PRESENTERS:
SLIDE 2 - PRESENTATION OUTLINE:
[Fill in the relevant details]
Fill in your country name
Fill in the name(s)/detail(s) of the relevant climate change adaptation initiative(s) in your country.
ADDITIONAL SLIDES:
[ONE SLIDE] Note the main steps of a climate change adaptation initiative in [your country] that is relevant which provides lessons in implementation strategies for the NAP process.
[ONE/TWO SLIDES] Complete the bullet points:- In developing the adaptation initiative, how did [your country]:
Develop a longer term adaptation implementation strategy / process?
Enhanced capacity for planning and implementation of adaptation?
Promote linkages at the regional level and coordinate with other adaptation processes and agreements?
[ONE/TWO SLIDES] Based on the lessons learned from the initiative, explain the main strategies, processes, ministries or mechanisms relevant to preparing elements for NAP in your country.
INSTRUCTIONS FOR PRESENTERS:
SLIDE 2 - PRESENTATION OUTLINE:
[Fill in the relevant details]
Fill in your country name
Fill in the name(s)/detail(s) of the relevant climate change adaptation initiative(s) in your country.
ADDITIONAL SLIDES:
[ONE SLIDE] Note the main steps of a climate change adaptation initiative in [your country] that is relevant which provides lessons in implementation strategies for the NAP process.
[ONE/TWO SLIDES] Complete the bullet points:- In developing the adaptation initiative, how did [your country]:
Develop a longer term adaptation implementation strategy / process?
Enhanced capacity for planning and implementation of adaptation?
Promote linkages at the regional level and coordinate with other adaptation processes and agreements?
[ONE/TWO SLIDES] Based on the lessons learned from the initiative, explain the main strategies, processes, ministries or mechanisms relevant to preparing elements for NAP in your country.
INSTRUCTIONS FOR PRESENTERS:
SLIDE 2 - PRESENTATION OUTLINE:
[Fill in the relevant details]
Fill in your country name
Fill in the name(s)/detail(s) of the relevant climate change adaptation initiative(s) in your country.
ADDITIONAL SLIDES:
[ONE SLIDE] Note the main steps of a climate change adaptation initiative in [your country] that is relevant which provides lessons in implementation strategies for the NAP process.
[ONE/TWO SLIDES] Complete the bullet points:- In developing the adaptation initiative, how did [your country]:
Develop a longer term adaptation implementation strategy / process?
Enhanced capacity for planning and implementation of adaptation?
Promote linkages at the regional level and coordinate with other adaptation processes and agreements?
[ONE/TWO SLIDES] Based on the lessons learned from the initiative, explain the main strategies, processes, ministries or mechanisms relevant to preparing elements for NAP in your country.
INSTRUCTIONS FOR PRESENTERS:
SLIDE 2 - PRESENTATION OUTLINE:
[Fill in the relevant details]
Fill in your country name
Fill in the name(s)/detail(s) of the relevant climate change adaptation initiative(s) in your country.
ADDITIONAL SLIDES:
[ONE SLIDE] Note the main steps of a climate change adaptation initiative in [your country] that is relevant which provides lessons in implementation strategies for the NAP process.
[ONE/TWO SLIDES] Complete the bullet points:- In developing the adaptation initiative, how did [your country]:
Develop a longer term adaptation implementation strategy / process?
Enhanced capacity for planning and implementation of adaptation?
Promote linkages at the regional level and coordinate with other adaptation processes and agreements?
[ONE/TWO SLIDES] Based on the lessons learned from the initiative, explain the main strategies, processes, ministries or mechanisms relevant to preparing elements for NAP in your country.
INSTRUCTIONS FOR PRESENTERS:
SLIDE 2 - PRESENTATION OUTLINE:
[Fill in the relevant details]
Fill in your country name
Fill in the name(s)/detail(s) of the relevant climate change adaptation initiative(s) in your country.
ADDITIONAL SLIDES:
[ONE SLIDE] Note the main steps of a climate change adaptation initiative in [your country] that is relevant which provides lessons in implementation strategies for the NAP process.
[ONE/TWO SLIDES] Complete the bullet points:- In developing the adaptation initiative, how did [your country]:
Develop a longer term adaptation implementation strategy / process?
Enhanced capacity for planning and implementation of adaptation?
Promote linkages at the regional level and coordinate with other adaptation processes and agreements?
[ONE/TWO SLIDES] Based on the lessons learned from the initiative, explain the main strategies, processes, ministries or mechanisms relevant to preparing elements for NAP in your country.
INSTRUCTIONS FOR PRESENTERS:
SLIDE 2 - PRESENTATION OUTLINE:
[Fill in the relevant details]
Fill in your country name
Fill in the name(s)/detail(s) of the relevant climate change adaptation initiative(s) in your country.
ADDITIONAL SLIDES:
[ONE SLIDE] Note the main steps of a climate change adaptation initiative in [your country] that is relevant which provides lessons in implementation strategies for the NAP process.
[ONE/TWO SLIDES] Complete the bullet points:- In developing the adaptation initiative, how did [your country]:
Develop a longer term adaptation implementation strategy / process?
Enhanced capacity for planning and implementation of adaptation?
Promote linkages at the regional level and coordinate with other adaptation processes and agreements?
[ONE/TWO SLIDES] Based on the lessons learned from the initiative, explain the main strategies, processes, ministries or mechanisms relevant to preparing elements for NAP in your country.
INSTRUCTIONS FOR PRESENTERS:
SLIDE 2 - PRESENTATION OUTLINE:
[Fill in the relevant details]
Fill in your country name
Fill in the name(s)/detail(s) of the relevant climate change adaptation initiative(s) in your country.
ADDITIONAL SLIDES:
[ONE SLIDE] Note the main steps of a climate change adaptation initiative in [your country] that is relevant which provides lessons in implementation strategies for the NAP process.
[ONE/TWO SLIDES] Complete the bullet points:- In developing the adaptation initiative, how did [your country]:
Develop a longer term adaptation implementation strategy / process?
Enhanced capacity for planning and implementation of adaptation?
Promote linkages at the regional level and coordinate with other adaptation processes and agreements?
[ONE/TWO SLIDES] Based on the lessons learned from the initiative, explain the main strategies, processes, ministries or mechanisms relevant to preparing elements for NAP in your country.