Le timeboxing est partout en agilité .. On y fait des sprints en SCRUM, SAFe. Du mur à mur. Cependant, il y a des grandes réserves à y apporter. Les concepteurs de ces sprints ont improvisé. Ils ont transposés les coutumes des grands projets Waterfall - qui durent des mois - et ont appliqué la recette à petite échelle sur des chantiers dont les échéanciers sont de 2,3 ou 4 semaines. Erreur tragique qui a des impacts majeurs sur la santé des travailleurs. Comment pardonner ce manque de connaissance de base en mathématique? Nous verrons donc ces failles, sous un oeil scientifique, en regardant 3 dimensions : Le timeboxing et le comportement de la variance des estimations sur des gros projets; La création artificielle de pénurie de temps sur la qualité de la prise de décision; Les sprints agiles: fin de non recevoir avec la simplicité inhérente de la théorie des contraintes. Daniel Doiron Anna Sikorska

1. TameFlow
The science (or lack thereof)
of TimeBoxing
Agile Tour Montréal – 2020
Samedi 21 Novembre 15:00-15:20
The origins of SCRUM –
A big misunderstanding
Dr Goldratt’s
Inherent Simplicity
Artifical Scarcity
of Time

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01
The origins of SCRUM – Jeff Sutherland
https://www.SCRUMinc.com/origins-of-
SCRUM

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In the beginning of SCRUM ...
• SCRUM derives directly from the Takeuchi and Nonaka paper in the Harvard
Business Review, "The New New Product Development Game.“ (1986)
Note: When you read Jeff Sutherland’s article on the ‘Origins of SCRUM’, his intent was to reach hyper
productivity states of 500% or more. This almost never happened, maybe on 4 projects according to
Jeff Sutherland.

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…. But in the end
• SCRUM missed Takeuchi and Nonaka’s point totally for Knowledge Work by
using Timeboxing and Sprints instead of Iterations!
Note: Iterations can include all phases that we find in ‘Sprint’ flavors - design sprints, architecture
sprints, development sprints etc. An integration can have exploration, architecture, design bits. This
SCRUM habit is a big anti pattern as it splits functionality delivery into a web of dependencies insofar
as scope is concerned.

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02

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Creating artificial shortages of time …
• Impairs your decision making skills
• Makes you lose 13 to 14 IQ points as an individual
• Imagine the impact on a team!
Note: Timeboxing is an example of artificially created shortages of time

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03
The true meaning & intent of Takeuchi and Nonaka
Harvard Business Review – January 1986
https://hbr.org/1986/01/the-new-new-product-development-game

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Takeuchi and Nonaka – Architecture of Iterations
Interactions - People

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Takeuchi and Nonaka – Architecture of Iterations
Interactions - People
Iterations of
Variable Duration
<<<<<< TIME >>>>>>

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Takeuchi and Nonaka – Architecture of Iterations
Interactions - People
Iterations of
Variable Duration
Increments
(Delivered Value)
<<<<<< TIME >>>>>>

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Takeuchi and Nonaka – Iterations
Takeuchi & Nonaka
The new new Product
development game
Note: Iterations provide solutions to VUCA world !

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Design Thinking – Nature of Knowledge Work
Design thinking:
Divergence & Convergence
Double Diamond

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Nature of Knowledge Work
ConvergenceDivergence
Easy to design
Hard to do

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Nature of Knowledge Work
ConvergenceDivergence
Easy to design
Hard to do
Hard to design
Easy to do

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Nature of Knowledge Work – Scope
Increments
Target Scope
A target scope is attached
to each iteration.
The concept is that it is
fixed and will take the
time that is needed to
create it.

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Takeuchi and Nonaka – Variable Time
<<< TIME >>> <TIME> <<<TIME >>> < < < < < TIME > > > > >
Iteration One Ite Two Ite Three Iteration Four

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Takeuchi and Nonaka – Target Scope
SCOPE SCOPE SCOPE SCOPE
Iteration One Ite Two Ite Three Iteration Four

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04
Let’s Sprint !

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Sprints and Iterations baseline transposition
Sprint 1
Iteration One Ite Two Ite Three Iteration Four
Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Sprint 4 Sprint 5 Sprint 6

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Sprint Delivery vs Iteration Delivery
Sprint
Goal
Iteration
Goal
Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Sprint 4 Sprint 5 Sprint 6
Iteration One Ite Two Ite Three Iteration Four

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Sprints
• In terms of psychological flow, working on the same increment on multiple sprints creates complexity at the
scope level. What is the Sprint GOAL ?
Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Sprint 4 Sprint 5 Sprint 6

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Sprints
• In terms of psychological flow, working on the same increment on multiple sprints creates complexity at the
scope level. What is the Sprint GOAL ?
• Timeboxing is incompatible with knowledge work, as we will see in the next section
Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Sprint 4 Sprint 5 Sprint 6

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Sprints
• In terms of psychological flow, working on the same increment on multiple sprints creates complexity at the
scope level. What is the Sprint GOAL ?
• Timeboxing is incompatible with knowledge work, as we will see in the next section
• Agile and its use of timeboxing assumes that the phases of divergence and convergence can be ‘hardcoded’
Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Sprint 4 Sprint 5 Sprint 6

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Takeuchi and Nonaka – Nature of knowledge Work
• In terms of psychological flow, working on the same increment on multiple sprints creates complexity at the
scope level. What is the Sprint GOAL ?
• Timeboxing is incompatible with knowledge work, as we will see in the next section
• Agile and its use of timeboxing assumes that the phases of divergence and convergence can be ‘hardcoded’
• Sprint and timeboxing ceremonies are not meant to support knowledge work
Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Sprint 4 Sprint 5 Sprint 6

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Takeuchi and Nonaka – Nature of knowledge Work
• In terms of psychological flow, working on the same increment on multiple sprints creates complexity at the
scope level. What is the Sprint GOAL ?
• Timeboxing is incompatible with knowledge work, as we will see in the next section
• Agile and its use of timeboxing assumes that the phases of divergence and convergence can be ‘hardcoded’
• Sprint and timeboxing ceremonies are not meant to support knowledge work
• Timeboxing pulls the plug on all variability at the end of the sprint. There is information in variability. There
are no provisions to absorb variability within a Timeboxing paradigm
Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Sprint 4 Sprint 5 Sprint 6

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Takeuchi and Nonaka – Nature of knowledge Work
• In terms of psychological flow, working on the same increment on multiple sprints creates complexity at the
scope level. What is the Sprint GOAL ?
• Timeboxing is incompatible with knowledge work, as we will see in the next section
• Agile and its use of timeboxing assumes that the phases of divergence and convergence can be ‘hardcoded’
• Sprint and timeboxing ceremonies are not meant to support knowledge work
• Timeboxing pulls the plug on all variability at the end of the sprint. There is information in variability. There
are no provisions to absorb variability within a Timeboxing paradigm
• At the end of a Sprint, the scope is renegotiated
Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Sprint 4 Sprint 5 Sprint 6

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Iterations
• Each Iteration has one GOAL and simplifies the operational, psychological, financial and informational flows.
Iteration One Ite Two Ite Three Iteration Four

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Iterations
• Each Iteration has one GOAL and simplifies the operational, psychological, financial and informational flows
• The GOAL is a target scope and time is allowed to slip to meet that GOAL
Iteration One Ite Two Ite Three Iteration Four

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Iterations
• Each Iteration has one GOAL and simplifies the operational, psychological, financial and informational flows
• The GOAL is a target scope and time is allowed to slip to meet that GOAL
• A general solution to dependency management anxiety due to trying to control scope thru time
Iteration One Ite Two Ite Three Iteration Four

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Iterations
• Each Iteration has one GOAL and simplifies the operational, psychological, financial and informational flows
• The GOAL is a target scope and time is allowed to slip to meet that GOAL
• A general solution to dependency management anxiety due to trying to control scope thru time
• Relieves the need to posses a solution for upfront & detailed requirements analysis
Iteration One Ite Two Ite Three Iteration Four

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05
Inherent Simplicity – Dr Eli Goldratt
Clear Vision : Dr Eli Goldratt
Inherent Simplicity, Complexity and Degrees of Freedom
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWvMODJ9cVc

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Degrees of Freedom – Definition !
• In statistics, the number of degrees of freedom is the number of values in the final calculation of a
statistic that are free to vary.

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Degrees of Freedom – Definition !
• In statistics, the number of degrees of freedom is the number of values in the final calculation of a
statistic that are free to vary.
• The number of independent ways by which a dynamic system can move, without violating any
constraint imposed on it, is called number of degrees of freedom.

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Degrees of Freedom – Definition !
• In statistics, the number of degrees of freedom is the number of values in the final calculation of a
statistic that are free to vary.
• The number of independent ways by which a dynamic system can move, without violating any
constraint imposed on it, is called number of degrees of freedom.
• In other words, the number of degrees of freedom can be defined as the minimum number of
independent coordinates that can specify the position of the system completely.

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Degrees of Freedom – Definition !
• In statistics, the number of degrees of freedom is the number of values in the final calculation of a
statistic that are free to vary.
• The number of independent ways by which a dynamic system can move, without violating any
constraint imposed on it, is called number of degrees of freedom.
• In other words, the number of degrees of freedom can be defined as the minimum number of
independent coordinates that can specify the position of the system completely.
• The more degrees of freedom, the deeper understanding of a model is required and the more actions
required to impact it.

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Degrees of Freedom explained
Equation 1 :
40+10-30+20+X = 100 X=60
Equation 2 :
50+10+20-60+X = 100 X=80
In both equations, the degrees of freedom is four.
X is a plug in and has no freedom for its value!

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6 Degrees of Freedom in 3D Reality

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Time Unrolls Forward – Only one degree of freedom !

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Table of Content of a Book – Scope analogy

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TameFlow, Degrees of Freedom, Time and Inherent Simplicity
• In TameFlow, variability is managed on the time axis rather than on the scope axis.

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TameFlow, Degrees of Freedom and Inherent Simplicity
• In TameFlow, variability is managed on the time axis rather than on the scope axis.
• This is actually a huge advantage compared to Agile methods. By taking the liberty of varying scope - as
is customary in Agile - it is too easy to add even more variability as a result of going back and forth with
scope management.

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TameFlow, Degrees of Freedom and Inherent Simplicity
• In TameFlow, variability is managed on the time axis rather than on the scope axis.
• This is actually a huge advantage compared to Agile methods. By taking the liberty of varying scope - as
is customary in Agile - it is too easy to add even more variability as a result of going back and forth with
scope management.
• The time dimension, on the other hand, unrolls only in one direction, from the past to the future, and
what is gone is gone.

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TameFlow, Degrees of Freedom and Inherent Simplicity
• In TameFlow, variability is managed on the time axis rather than on the scope axis.
• This is actually a huge advantage compared to Agile methods. By taking the liberty of varying scope - as
is customary in Agile - it is too easy to add even more variability as a result of going back and forth with
scope management.
• The time dimension, on the other hand, unrolls only in one direction, from the past to the future, and
what is gone is gone.
• With lesser degrees of freedom, the Tameflow Approach gains in simplicity - as Dr. Goldratt taught us.
Tame Your Work Flow by Tendon and Doiron – Introduction to Management Signals - Page 264

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06
Campfire with Herbie # 4 on Takeuchi and Nonaka
from 32:58 til 53:48 to get to the bottom of this !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNdnsyum4k8/

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THE END
HERBIE IS YOUR FRIEND!